International Relations

...Just a guess, but I suspect a number of people have bribed Trump - @FredThat's not how you spell blackmailed. - @Aidan in HCMCSomeone on the radio said a $1.5B trade/bet was placed 5m before Trump's messaging.More security holes than a swiss cheese plant. - @fluffy2560I suspect the "inside traders" will be, as we say in Newfoundland, busier than a dog with two dix. - @Aidan in HCMC
In Hungary we have a political party called "the two tailed dog" (party).

They parody the establishment but haven't really got any traction (or action so to speak).

They are quite popular. Not sure what their "real" policies are. We might find out on the 12 April (Election Day).

Their logo:

- @fluffy2560

The problem is that recently (cc. 8 years) some of them actually started to do politics.

When in the "good old times" it was truly about parody and satire liked them.

In that time their election promise was:

"Free beer, immortal life, tax reduction."

Also:

To fill the Budapest 4-6 tram line with beer and folks should travel by small boats.

@SimCityAT

He said it was the responsibility of politicians to protect children

If would depend on me would deport all politicians to some uninhabited island who say such bs.

It is the responsibility of parents (plural), wider family and society, nor politicians, and especially not any regulation/ legalization/ political decision.

The problem is on the society level primary which:

1. treat kids as no-sense who cannot think, learn (also overprotected, then dropped to deep water from 16,18,21 depending on country)
2. treat parents as no fault players who cannot have responsibility or authority
3. agree for over-regulation by public actors  (regulators, legalization, authorities)

Also it is just pure lie an excuse to digital id.

Surprise, surprise: most of the sites which already require or obligated to require documents are primary used by adults. But some already feels the losses: certain sites did lost 50-95+% of ADULT users: simply because better to not provide sensitive data. Alternatives are out there.

Actually a few years back it was a misdemeanor with hefty fines to actually require any id from Hun citizens (few exceptions, like banks/ financials, employer for actual paperwork). Even police was not allowed to grab/ hold it without permission DURING inspection (citizen just to show them, holding in own hand, from that they can send the data to centre to get a 0 (no pending arrest)).

The problem is that recently (cc. 8 years) some of them actually started to do politics.When in the "good old times" it was truly about parody and satire liked them.In that time their election promise was:"Free beer, immortal life, tax reduction."Also:To fill the Budapest 4-6 tram line with beer and folks should travel by small boats. - @sjbabilon5

I know about those pledges but I did not post about them.  Unfortunately, anyone voting for the Parody Party this time around has wasted their vote.  I'm no fan of Magyar Peter (MP), as he might prove to be Fidesz-lite.  But he's got the best chance of removing Orban.  So even if it sticks in one's throat, it's the best way forward in this cycle.  MP can be removed next time if he proves unworthy.  That's really the entire point - restoring normal democracy.   

@fluffy2560

My guess that there will be many "lost" votes.

As one comedian said:

"If you want a massive voter base in Hungary you need to create the "opposition leaders" party."

Which is a reference to the ridiculous number of (exist only in name) parties/ leaderships.

Something like the late German states before Bismarck, where a state had a navy:

1 admiral, 1 vice admiral, 1 captain, 1 sailor.

My expectation is 4 party have a chance to be in by popular vote, but more will be because the election district mandates.

My expectation is 4 party have a chance to be in by popular vote, but more will be because the election district mandates. - @sjbabilon5

And of course that will make it worse in this cycle because the lack of unanimity to dispose of OV.   

In other words we end up with split voting and no majority.

Anyway, it's not looking good for OV according to polls I've seen.

HU:

Election timetable:

April 7–8, 2026

JD Vance Visits Budapest

US Vice President’s scheduled visit. Highest-level US official in Hungary since 2006. Massive security and media presence expected.

April 9–10, 2026

OSCE Short-Term Observers Arrive

200 short-term election observers deploy to polling stations across the country.

April 11, 2026

Campaign Silence — Final Day Before Vote

By law, active campaigning must cease. Final media appearances and press briefings.

April 12, 2026

Election Day

Polls open 6:00 AM – 7:00 PM (CEST). First exit polls expected by 7:30 PM. Preliminary results through the night.

April 13–14, 2026

Official Results & International Reactions

National Election Office publishes preliminary official results. OSCE/ODIHR releases preliminary findings. International press conferences.

My expectation is 4 party have a chance to be in by popular vote, but more will be because the election district mandates.  - @sjbabilon5
And of course that will make it worse in this cycle because the lack of unanimity to dispose of OV.
In other words we end up with split voting and no majority.

Anyway, it's not looking good for OV according to polls I've seen. - @fluffy2560

Ddemocracy is either good or bad. If it's bad when someone you dislike wins, the problem does not sit with the winner.

HU:

MEPs rally behind Magyar in Hungarian elections despite ideological divides

"A vast majority of European lawmakers hopes to see Orbán’s fall in the upcoming Hungarian elections, widely considered a watershed moment in Brussels. Even left-wing lawmakers are rooting for Orbán's rival, Péter Magyar, in a make-or-break vote for the future of Europe.

With two weeks to go until Hungary’s elections, the campaign is also heating up in Brussels.

While the European Commission has kept a low profile to avoid any controversy, European lawmakers are speaking up.

Euronews estimates that most parliamentary groups—together holding more than three-quarters of MEPs—are against Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and, to some extent, favor opposition leader Péter Magyar.

"This vote is an absolute game-changer," according to Andrey Kovatchev, a prominent member of the European People's Party. "The group is in full support of Tisza [Magyar's party]," he told Euronews, despite recent frictions on issues such as the EU-Mercosur trade deal. "Overthrowing Orbán is very important for the future of the EU."

Spain has blocked their airspace to US military flights engaged in the attacks on Iran

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ … ft-with-us

More and more countries are openly opposing the US, and they are actively working against US interests.

This is a major shift in the geopolitical landscape, and one that I believe to be the end of US hegemony.

IR/US etc:

E-3 sentry hit:

IR/US etc:
E-3 sentry hit: - @fluffy2560

Three or four days ago CNN reported it..."damaged".

No problemo. That'll buff out.

IR/US etc:E-3 sentry hit: - @fluffy2560 Three or four days ago CNN reported it..."damaged".No problemo. That'll buff out. - @Aidan in HCMC

Yes, it was an "oldie".   24h is an oldie in this Iran kerfuffle. 

I guess they can take to Scratches R Us in the morning and it'll be right by the afternoon.   Gorilla glue, some balsa wood, toothpicks/matches and fixed!

Cash only.  No credit cards.  Top tip for US military: Do not ask for credit as a punch in the face often offends.

Tis but a scratch....

HU/USA:

Viktor Orbán: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

First section is about Orban in Hungary and obviously the election.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qdwpnwzwpo

Ukraine continues to attack Russian oil, thus forcing world prices up even higher.

Thanks for nothing, Ukraine.

The west is arming Ukraine, but Ukraine is using the weapons to make life harder for the very taxpayers that are supporting them.

IR/USA:

'Go get your own oil!' Trump says as he tells countries 'just take it' from Strait of Hormuz

"US President Donald Trump says countries "like the United Kingdom" who can't get jet fuel because of the restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz should “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT".

In a post on Truth Social, he writes countries will “have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us," addressing countries "which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran".

"Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done," the post adds, ending with: “Go get your own oil!” "

That message takes the biscuit.   He's obviously conveniently forgotten the 457 British lives lost in Afghanistan.

I think that smacks of Donny's utter failure in Iran.

In a post on Truth Social, he writes countries will “have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us," addressing countries "which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran". - @fluffy2560

That's wrong. Countries should openly oppose the US and their illegal war in Iran. They should all close their airspace to US military aircraft, and ensure no equipment they supply can be used by the US military in Trump's war on Iran.

That way there will be no need to defend against the manufactured 'enemy', and the UK can buy oil from wherever it likes, regardless of US bully tactics.

Iran is only a threat to British interests in the region because the daft PM wimped his war into supporting Trump, albeit in a tiny way.

You don't have to fight if you don't follow the US into its idiotic oil wars.

HU:

Magyar Peter's movie "Spring Wind - the Awakening" showing at cinemas locally.

"Exactly one month before the 2026 parliamentary elections, on March 12, the documentary Spring Wind – the Awakening was released. The film was directed by Yvan Tamás Topolánszky; it is recorded by the film producer and film distributor JUNO11 as an independent work. A portion of the film's proceeds will be donated to child protection causes."

Seems like MP is running a near perfect campaign against the incumbent Orban.   Cinemas are full apparently.

Ratings and reviews at IMDB.   The review locations and the division of top ratings and low ratings across potentially relevant countries might - I hypothesise - be a proxy indicator for the forthcoming election result.  ~2500 reviews/samples.  Ratings of 10,  ~60%,  Ratings of 1, ~30%.   Just a thought.

Spain has blocked their airspace to US military flights engaged in the attacks on Iran
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ … ft-with-us
More and more countries are openly opposing the US, and they are actively working against US interests.
This is a major shift in the geopolitical landscape, and one that I believe to be the end of US hegemony. - @Fred

Spain does that since the beginning.

I wonder what the so called allies will do later when they in need of support.

Or if the US actually does leave NATO...

Spain has blocked their airspace to US military flights engaged in the attacks on Iranhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ … ft-with-usMore and more countries are openly opposing the US, and they are actively working against US interests.This is a major shift in the geopolitical landscape, and one that I believe to be the end of US hegemony.  - @FredSpain does that since the beginning. I wonder what the so called allies will do later when they in need of support. Or if the US actually does leave NATO... - @sjbabilon5

If they stop creating enemies by following America,  they will have no need.

Why is Russia an enemy?

Why is China a threat?

The thing is, if you ignore US propaganda,  nobody can answer those questions.

Try answering them yourself,  but you have to verify all the pro and anti arguments.

Russia is very much the victim in that NATO's eastwards expansion coupled with the US coup in Ukraine (and the push for Ukraine to join NATO). That left Moscow vulnerable to a pincer attack.

Once you take a closer look at the Chinese threat, the only anti-points are down to business supremacy, not any military or other physical aggression.

Try a disinterested look at the two situations, and you'll see the real aggression is from the States.

IR/USA:
'Go get your own oil!' Trump says as he tells countries 'just take it' from Strait of Hormuz

"US President Donald Trump says countries "like the United Kingdom" who can't get jet fuel because of the restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz should “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT".

In a post on Truth Social, he writes countries will “have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us," addressing countries "which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran".

"Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done," the post adds, ending with: “Go get your own oil!” "

That message takes the biscuit. He's obviously conveniently forgotten the 457 British lives lost in Afghanistan.

I think that smacks of Donny's utter failure in Iran. - @fluffy2560

That is funny, but proper: alliances preferably are about mutual support instead of ink on paper, or at least to not work against "allies". So the then take care of yourself is proper.

The funny part: by what forces?

Most countries does have just a toy army/ excuse for armed forces.

Right now Croatia (CROATIA! - a country with less than 4 million population) have a more combat ready and overall stronger/ prepared army than Germany.

As for UK/ Royal Navy: in recent years most famous that ships not even able to start to leave ports because either lack of crew or most minimal maintenance. Or if ships run out get decapitated by accidents/ break down.

As for Iran:

Nor defeated, nor decapitated.

They just dig out their missiles and other arms in like a year. Strikes and bunker busters may blown entrances and entry tunnels for the underground facilities but most of the armaments remains intact, just need to dig out.

Spain has blocked their airspace to US military flights engaged in the attacks on Iranhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ … ft-with-usMore and more countries are openly opposing the US, and they are actively working against US interests.This is a major shift in the geopolitical landscape, and one that I believe to be the end of US hegemony.  - @FredSpain does that since the beginning. I wonder what the so called allies will do later when they in need of support. Or if the US actually does leave NATO... - @sjbabilon5

My attempt at scenario planning:

Trump only has another 3 years, probably less with the mid-terms screwing him up on future actions.   He'll become a lame duck (pull out of Iran as no mandate).

The chances are it'll flip back to Democrats and repairs will start.  Trust is however permanently damaged for the foreseeable future - generations.

Possibly upper limits on a President's age will be introduced.  No-one can be President who is over 75 at the end of their term.

NATO and allies (include Australia and NZ) will resurrect itself without USA at the core.  Maybe it morphs to NATO as EU27+6 (Aus, NZ, Iceland, Canada, UK and Greenland).   

There's always a chance Putin will die and things will become more reasonable in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the only right  wing anti-EU fascist around here will be a very isolated Fico. The EU will have modified rules to fully sanction member states who diverge from majority policy. 

Spain has blocked their airspace to US military flights engaged in the attacks on Iranhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ … ft-with-usMore and more countries are openly opposing the US, and they are actively working against US interests.This is a major shift in the geopolitical landscape, and one that I believe to be the end of US hegemony. - @FredSpain does that since the beginning. I wonder what the so called allies will do later when they in need of support. Or if the US actually does leave NATO...  - @sjbabilon5
If they stop creating enemies by following America, they will have no need.
Why is Russia an enemy?
Why is China a threat?
The thing is, if you ignore US propaganda, nobody can answer those questions.
Try answering them yourself, but you have to verify all the pro and anti arguments.
Russia is very much the victim in that NATO's eastwards expansion coupled with the US coup in Ukraine (and the push for Ukraine to join NATO). That left Moscow vulnerable to a pincer attack.
Once you take a closer look at the Chinese threat, the only anti-points are down to business supremacy, not any military or other physical aggression.
Try a disinterested look at the two situations, and you'll see the real aggression is from the States. - @Fred

Superpowers cannot be disregarded: all have interests and goals and the means to take steps to accomplish those.

It is not obligatory to be allied with others. But if countries choose to: the bare minimum would be to not treat so called allies as hostile. (Sidenote: the same happened during the prior US administration, as then USA-Hungary had a spy and shadow war.)

There are only a handful of countries which do have both the means and especially the will to stand for themselves.

For example the Swiss can, and often did in the past centuries.

Independence needs power and willpower, and still not easy even then.

Spain has blocked their airspace to US military flights engaged in the attacks on Iranhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ … ft-with-usMore and more countries are openly opposing the US, and they are actively working against US interests.This is a major shift in the geopolitical landscape, and one that I believe to be the end of US hegemony. - @FredSpain does that since the beginning. I wonder what the so called allies will do later when they in need of support. Or if the US actually does leave NATO...  - @sjbabilon5
My attempt at scenario planning:

Trump only has another 3 years, probably less with the mid-terms screwing him up on future actions. He'll become a lame duck (pull out of Iran as no mandate).

The chances are it'll flip back to Democrats and repairs will start. Trust is however permanently damaged for the foreseeable future - generations.

Possibly upper limits on a President's age will be introduced. No-one can be President who is over 75 at the end of their term.

NATO and allies (include Australia and NZ) will resurrect itself without USA at the core. Maybe it morphs to NATO as EU27+6 (Aus, NZ, Iceland, Canada, UK and Greenland). 

There's always a chance Putin will die and things will become more reasonable in Ukraine.
- @fluffy2560

As for me I would dislike to have again the US as enemy as it was for a few years prior the present administration because it will be some time as they do ruin again their capabilities after the present empowerment.

Old CIA ad

As for age limits:

It very much seems like the the requirement for presidents are include to be very old preferably with dementia. Just as for congress where need to be an ancient mummy or just old hag.

It is simply: voters elect those candidates.

As for NATO:

USA have military power.

After that in order of importance: only Turkey, Poland, Romania can be considered seriously by military.

The question is why for example Poland would need such weaklings as EU27+6 if NATO collapses even by paper (for past years it is already only in paper)?

Would may consider the Baltics against Russia/ because proximity, or Hungary, Slovakia for historical reasons but why would the others which carry no benefit but problems?

Putin is also old, but if dies there are far more chance that some strongman ends up in command of a superpower than someone similarly moderate.

As for NATO:
USA have military power.
After that in order of importance: only Turkey, Poland, Romania can be considered seriously by military.
The question is why for example Poland would need such weaklings as EU27+6 if NATO collapses even by paper (for past years it is already only in paper)?
Would may consider the Baltics against Russia/ because proximity, or Hungary, Slovakia for historical reasons but why would the others which carry no benefit but problems?

Putin is also old, but if dies there are far more chance that some strongman ends up in command of a superpower than someone similarly moderate. - @sjbabilon5

I forgot about Turkey, make that EU27+7.   I don't think NATO has collapsed but it has found itself flailing around. It will work it out in the end - sans the USA.  There's no other option but for them to regroup, reorganise.

Poland is indeed gearing up and doing it very nicely.  It's still not infallible even with a modern Army.  They will need backup.   We cannot change geography.

All the NATO allies bring manpower, money and equipment and for the UK and France, nuclear weapons.  What's not to like about having friends with enormously powerful weapons down their trousers?  There's time for the rest to step up.  Putin is said to be ready for a NATO attack by 2030.  So there's time to get shopping (militarily) before the tough get going.

As for dying, Putin maybe and we can hope someone more moderate comes in. Donny I think will go before (and he's dead politically in 3 years anyway - he's not coming back from it constitutionally).   It's inevitable that the cycle will continue with swings either way.  I can see wannabes for the White House channelling Donny post-Trump 2.0 though as Donny has set something of a standard.

What's not to like about having friends with enormously powerful weapons down their trousers? - @fluffy2560

Not my cup of tea, ducky.

On the bright side, the US slinking out of NATO means there will be no need to buy US made weapons,  but Trump won't have thought that far ahead.

HU:

Hungary colluded with Russia to delist sanctioned oligarchs: Report (video)

"The Insider's Michael Weiss details new reporting on Hungary colluding with Russia to delist sanctioned oligarchs, companies and banks."

This entire Hungary thing is getting more and more outrageous, even hysterical.   The possibility that Orban will try and stay in power seems rather surprising.

As for NATO:
USA have military power.
After that in order of importance: only Turkey, Poland, Romania can be considered seriously by military.
The question is why for example Poland would need such weaklings as EU27+6 if NATO collapses even by paper (for past years it is already only in paper)?
Would may consider the Baltics against Russia/ because proximity, or Hungary, Slovakia for historical reasons but why would the others which carry no benefit but problems?

Putin is also old, but if dies there are far more chance that some strongman ends up in command of a superpower than someone similarly moderate.  - @sjbabilon5
I forgot about Turkey, make that EU27+7. I don't think NATO has collapsed but it has found itself flailing around. It will work it out in the end - sans the USA. There's no other option but for them to regroup, reorganise.
Poland is indeed gearing up and doing it very nicely. It's still not infallible even with a modern Army. They will need backup. We cannot change geography.

All the NATO allies bring manpower, money and equipment and for the UK and France, nuclear weapons. What's not to like about having friends with enormously powerful weapons down their trousers? There's time for the rest to step up. Putin is said to be ready for a NATO attack by 2030. So there's time to get shopping (militarily) before the tough get going.

- @fluffy2560

I think NATO is ink on paper because already seems just alliance on paper (as members often all across treat each others) and would not trust for a minute on mutual defense if the need arises (nor the will, nor the capability).

Also became more about bureaucracy burden than military cooperation.

Also lack of footing: anno made against the Warsaw pact - that is no more.

So for what it stands for? A few years back would say for US interest - but even that seems to gone.

Turkey have interest in cooperation with the USA, and diverse weapon sources.

A regional power by own right, have no need for the others.

"All the NATO allies bring manpower, money and equipment"

Money does not make capable armies, otherwise for example Saudi Arabia would have one.

Also money does not get equipment: production (factory - industrial) capability does.

Ukraine is the main proof: various blocks, countries were eager to send weapons and ammo there: sent the old/ eastern block ones (means Warsaw pact weaponry), or sent their own ammo - thus certain countries have such low stores remaining which suitable for days in case of war.

Had money, wanted to buy, and sent to Ukraine what they did buy up. Reality given a slap in face: storage empty, notable production only in a few places (like South Korea).

The reality is: no one can wage war with money: weapons and ammo needed for that, and for that mining, industry, factories, energy. Europe instead have green agenda.

As for manpower situation even worse.

For that needs people who are ready to fight for it and sacrifice.

Additional bonus IF the prior stands if have some minimal health, fitness and discipline.

In most countries there are no willingness to fight in the population level, very often not even among the active members of their military.

Turkey and Poland does not stand out because they have X tanks, X aircraft, X something (actually they have equipment too).

But because their army is serious about: if needs to fight, then will - same goes to the general population and society itself.

BTW: Croatia/Baltics: may not have shiny weaponry or not as fine on paper. BUT it would be a nightmare to actually fight them on the ground - not because their army, but their population and society.

"nuclear weapons"

My favorite military analyst expressed it fine:

"The US have a nuclear umbrella, the kind what people bring along for a heavy-stormy rain. What France have is like the decoration umbrella which is in a cocktail at the bar."

Nor have triad, neither UK or France.

As for submarines in recent years even that is in doubt that those are seaworthy, how many if yes, and how fare the missiles themselves (are those truly operational?).

"Putin is said to be ready for a NATO attack by 2030."

If a part of NATO attacks directly Russia then will bleed out quickly and decisively: either tomorrow or 2030.

In the past 2-3 years Ukraine did try to teach the various countries/ their armies what war is, what reality is, what a modern war is, what they should do even to have a chance to survive for a while. So far it is unsuccessful and met with deaf ears. 

But full NATO will not attack in the near future: or it would lack the USA-Turkey. So have no clue from where come this 2030 - there are war games always for practice/ theories/ training purposes, but better to not confuse such with actual plans.

I think NATO is ink on paper because already seems just alliance on paper (as members often all across treat each others) and would not trust for a minute on mutual defense if the need arises (nor the will, nor the capability).Also became more about bureaucracy burden than military cooperation. Also lack of footing: anno made against the Warsaw pact - that is no more. So for what it stands for? A few years back would say for US interest - but even that seems to gone.Turkey have interest in cooperation with the USA, and diverse weapon sources. A regional power by own right, have no need for the others. "All the NATO allies bring manpower, money and equipment"Money does not make capable armies, otherwise for example Saudi Arabia would have one. Also money does not get equipment: production (factory - industrial) capability does. Ukraine is the main proof: various blocks, countries were eager to send weapons and ammo there: sent the old/ eastern block ones (means Warsaw pact weaponry), or sent their own ammo - thus certain countries have such low stores remaining which suitable for days in case of war.Had money, wanted to buy, and sent to Ukraine what they did buy up. Reality given a slap in face: storage empty, notable production only in a few places (like South Korea). The reality is: no one can wage war with money: weapons and ammo needed for that, and for that mining, industry, factories, energy. Europe instead have green agenda. As for manpower situation even worse. For that needs people who are ready to fight for it and sacrifice. Additional bonus IF the prior stands if have some minimal health, fitness and discipline. In most countries there are no willingness to fight in the population level, very often not even among the active members of their military. Turkey and Poland does not stand out because they have X tanks, X aircraft, X something (actually they have equipment too).But because their army is serious about: if needs to fight, then will - same goes to the general population and society itself. BTW: Croatia/Baltics: may not have shiny weaponry or not as fine on paper. BUT it would be a nightmare to actually fight them on the ground - not because their army, but their population and society. "nuclear weapons"My favorite military analyst expressed it fine:"The US have a nuclear umbrella, the kind what people bring along for a heavy-stormy rain. What France have is like the decoration umbrella which is in a cocktail at the bar."Nor have triad, neither UK or France.As for submarines in recent years even that is in doubt that those are seaworthy, how many if yes, and how fare the missiles themselves (are those truly operational?). "Putin is said to be ready for a NATO attack by 2030."If a part of NATO attacks directly Russia then will bleed out quickly and decisively: either tomorrow or 2030. In the past 2-3 years Ukraine did try to teach the various countries/ their armies what war is, what reality is, what a modern war is, what they should do even to have a chance to survive for a while. So far it is unsuccessful and met with deaf ears. But full NATO will not attack in the near future: or it would lack the USA-Turkey. So have no clue from where come this 2030 - there are war games always for practice/ theories/ training purposes, but better to not confuse such with actual plans. - @sjbabilon5

Too much in there to comment on not least because of the logic and presentation.

Croatian military presented is an over-estimate of capability.  It's not going to fight much in a meat grinder war Russia style.  It doesn't have the personnel or resources.   Probably they'll spend more time protecting themselves against Russian agents cum proxy Serbia.

Ukraine is selling skills in the Middle East.  It's come at a fortunate time to export the knowledge - rich patrons in Saudi, UAE etc.  I read Ukraine now has an armaments deal going with Bulgaria.  Oil deal with Saudi would be great.  I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't build additional pipelines/capacity from the Black Sea. 

The EU+7 has capacity to arm themselves.  They just need to gear up.   They certainly were distracted and missed the boat on this one.   Like start now.  Asap.

Russia is more likely to attack NATO than the other way - not as you stated. Misreading of what I said. NATO is defensive.

Turkey has Erdogan but he's not going to stay in power forever.  I can see a new state of Kurdistan emerging there should Iran fall. Iraq is to weak to stop it.  Trump has not armed the Kurds which is a shame as they are ready to get into Iran.   Possibly Turkey will have to invade Iraq, Iran and do more incursions into Syria to stop Kurdistan emerging.   The entire region will blow even more.

Russia lost capacity in St Petersburg region oil refineries/terminals.   Not clear the extent of damage but another coup for Ukraine.  Big success to cut of the money Trump seems so willing to shove into Putin's war machine.

Croatia (army) is strong by European standards - sure that is not so hard to achieve.

It is defensive but sure can be beaten - but then after the regular army beaten occupier would have a nightmare scenario to control it (the very same as the Baltics).

Ukraine is selling skills where can. Sure UAE too (do not waste 6! patriot on a drone), but so far failed to teach like France, Germany, UK how do wage war/ be able to survive.

"The EU+7 has capacity to arm themselves.  They just need to gear up."

Depends on what gear up includes?

If that means drop the policies of the past circa 35+ years, includes green agenda, de-industrialization, education changes, and many etc

-> Can be done in 15-25 years.

But would need radical changes, many unrest.

The Soviet Union did it with 2 series 5 years plan from 1932-1942 (actually ended in 41 summer), but those measures would not be popular in present Europe.

Russia have no intention to attack regardless of provocations.

They know they would similarly bleed out in the Baltics/ Poland if turn up there as attacker.

That is only a minor possibility if some retarded hardliner gets president after Putin.

Turkey has Erdogan - and a Kurd problem before and after the man. The whole wider region have.

Actually I agree: a nation with 40+ million should have their own country - which would affect the maps of 4-5 other countries.

Just does not seems a reality it will happen.