International Relations

https://youtu.be/mRJEJnrEX5U?si=UZ-FV-iIfjkVc6zj

US weapons systems are now being seen as a liability.

As I predicted,  the US is becoming increasingly isolated and that will, in my most humble of opinions,  see the end of US hegemony in a very short time.

Trump's blundering is doing the world a favour,  but it's a great pity he's killing so many people whilst doing so.

https://youtu.be/Bz3S4kTlsJ8?si=Camro43RYSb_Gt5l

War is far more important than looking after people.

Peace Prize time?

HU (Euronews):

US Vice President Vance to visit Hungary days before key election

"US Vice President JD Vance will travel to Budapest on Tuesday and Wednesday for talks with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, days before a pivotal 12 April election in which Orbán faces his strongest opposition challenge in years. US Vice President JD Vance will visit Hungary on Tuesday and Wednesday, during the final week of campaigning ahead of the country's general election, the White House has announced."

As if Shady Vance visiting Hungary will be any help whatsoever  for OV.    It'll block up the town again with closures at the airport and streets in the city. I would have thought it would increase support for the opposition given Trump's Iran debacle.

Also from The Economist (behind paywall):

"....On a related note, Mr Trump’s endorsement, in the person of J.D. Vance, who is due to visit Hungary just before the election, does not seem to be helping Mr Orban. The world’s most famous right-wing populist is increasingly associated with war, pricey petrol and corruption. In Australia and Canada, his interference around election time has unintentionally helped the candidates he dislikes. Whether this year will see the populist tide start to ebb remains to be seen. But outfits such as Nigel Farage’s party in Britain, Reform UK, and the Alternative for Germany find it awkward to be MAGA-affiliated. Centrists should take advantage.

Meanwhile, Hungary’s future hangs in the balance. If the opposition wins a big majority, it will be harder for Mr Orban to deny or subvert the result. Even if he is ousted, he could still cause trouble. He has set up institutions, such as foundations running universities and media outlets, that will remain under the control of his friends. Any new government will struggle to unravel Orbanism’s tentacular grip over Hungary. (Poland, where a moderate government is tackling a similar problem, offers lessons.) The first step for Hungary, however, is the most crucial: defeating Viktor."

I don't agree with The Economist entirely on the latter paragraph.  MP will have to dismantle these institutional arrangements.  And I doubt OV and cronies can do anything from Dubai.  It is normal in Hungary for all the tentacles to be chopped off when the government changes - I've seen it happen in real time when I worked in government here.  Loyalists to OV will not find themselves continuing in their jobs.   And it is certain OV's relatives and friends without stashes in Dubai will be having holidays at government expense while the mafia like web is being exposed - the public will demand it.  I say all that in knowledge that MP is  Fidesz-lite.   But MP will almost immediately unblock the veto at the EU for Ukraine's loan. Fico in Slovakia will be left utterly isolated on that one.

HU:
US Vice President Vance to visit Hungary days before key election

"US Vice President JD Vance will travel to Budapest on Tuesday and Wednesday for talks with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, days before a pivotal 12 April election - @fluffy2560

I see it this way:

The EU is messing around, so a dude working for the free and fairly elected governemnt is no issue as it might balance out the EU's attempts to destabilise the elected government.

How to open the strait of Hormuz:

Publicly tell the US to go do one

Ignore US threats and goading

Sail through safely.

There's lots of talk about pressuring Iran to open it, but all you really need to do is oppose Trump's illegal war.

The Trump war, the latest in a string of US wars all over the world, has to be the last one. As soon as this is over, all use of the Dollar outside trade with the US must stop, and US oil should be last on the shopping list.

The world must move to renewable energy as quickly as possible.

The environment is clearly a concern,  but removing the US threat to the world is the priority.

The news is full of stories about a US F15 being shot down over Iran. The story is confirmed, and probably demoralising for US pilots, but the bigger story is how losing one jet is rattling the US.

It's a pity the Iranians didn't get the refuelling tanker that supplied fuel to the rescue helicopters - That would have been a very useful hit, and a solid blow to the invasion forces' morale.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e53x475qjo

Marmalade will have to be renamed to suit the traitorous UK government's bowing down to EU lawmakers. It seems Marmalade doesn't work for German linguistics,  so the name has to change.

This is a small thing, but it demonstrates why the UK is better avoiding the EU, and why the referendum ignoring Labour government should be banned from ever holding office again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/dated-b … -2008.html

The spot price for current physical cargoes of Brent crude oil soared Thursday to $141.36, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to S&P Global, which tracks the data.

The US/Israel attacks on Iran are really hurting the rest of the world.

The high oil price is exasperating as it's caused by yet another ill thought out US war.

However, the French have shown the world that the best way around this is to give the US the bird, and make sure Iran knows that France refuses to support Trump's illegal war.

Every other country should follow France's lead.

It seems an A10 was shot down as it covered rescue operations for the downed F15. The BBC is reporting that one of the helicopters was also hit, and crew members injured.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national … dy-george/

Is the US about to do something even more stupid than starting the war with Iran?

Hegseth is sacking senior military leaders and replacing them with fools.

This could just be personally clashes, but it's equally possible these experienced senior officers were refusing to enter into even more foolhardy actions that Trump wants.

Are we going to see a partial ground invasion of Iran, possibly Kharg Island in an attempt to steal the oil?

Trump has said he wants it, and the people most likely to stop the attack have been sacked.

The US caused the oil shockwave, but China is helping to mitigate Trump's mess

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/c … ackers-say

China is using its reserves to alleviate US war damage to Asian countries.

US:

The president's spiritual adviser Paula White-Cain compared him to Jesus during an Easter lunch at the White House Wednesday afternoon. The Morning Joe panel discusses the 'grotesque' moment and uses it as a launching pad for a discussion on Holy Week.

WTF? Trump is Jesus?  What is going on?  Hard to fathom those lunatics are actually in charge of a country.

Maybe biblical "history" repeats itself - one could hope is that Trump gets his comeuppance in some parallel way, i.e.  vengeance by the "system".   And unlike Jesus, he's not coming back from that.

HU:

After 16 years in power, could Viktor Orban finally be unseated?

""All they stand for is anger, hatred, and destruction," roared a hoarse Viktor Orban. The Hungarian prime minister was speaking at a mass election rally in Györ in western Hungary on 27 March, referring to opposition protesters who chanted "Filthy Fidesz" during his speech. For just a moment, his carefully cultivated image as the voice of calm navigating his country through stormy seas was shattered. His bad-tempered outburst showed a different side of a man used to cracking jokes and charming even his critics."

Nick Thorpe - long time Budapest BBC correspondent - discusses what might happen. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd7y1n3jyjo

Orban, Europe's longest serving democratically elected leader, is working to win another election. His opponent has the benefit of an EU funded propaganda machine that paints the elected leader as an undemocratic dictator that is trying to be unfairly elected again.

As you might not be aware (as some here don't seem to be), dictators don't tend to hold free and fair elections. The very fact there is an election negates the propagandist's argument, and the opposition being funded by foreign powers strongly suggests true democracy is on the line in Hungary.

Throw in the EU deliberately withholding funds unless the people elect the EU's choice, and you have a reasonable argument that suggests Hungary's opposition is traitorous in so much they are working for the EU's agenda instead of forwarding their own country's needs.

Orban, 61, is in his fourth consecutive term as prime minister. In that time, he and his allies have dismantled democratic checks and balances, taken control of the country's media, civil society and universities, and consolidated power in himself and his Fidesz party. The dismantling of Hungary's democracy is a point of fascination for political scientists around the world — including those advising the Trump administration.

Hungary Under Viktor Orbán: A Domino in The Global Fall of Democracy

Orban, 61, is in his fourth consecutive term as prime minister. In that time, he and his allies have dismantled democratic checks and balances, taken control of the country's media, civil society and universities, and consolidated power in himself and his Fidesz party. The dismantling of Hungary's democracy is a point of fascination for political scientists around the world — including those advising the Trump administration.Hungary Under Viktor Orbán: A Domino in The Global Fall of Democracy - @SimCityAT

Pretty much covers it.  It's an electoral autocracy.  A week today and we'll see what's happening but there's a media blackout the day before.  Results won't be fully known until Monday 13 April.  No-one is expecting a landslide but we are expecting a significant drop in OV's popularity.   

BTW, Fidesz has shifted up to controversial AI generated images and themes now saying it's all about HU ending up in Ukraine's war at the behest of the EU.  There's no basis for that kind of rhetoric.   

USA/IR:

Trump Unleashes Profanity‑Laced Threat Against Iran Over Vital Strait

"President Donald Trump issued a profanity‑laced threat toward Iran, warning of devastating consequences unless Tehran reopens the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, as tensions between the two countries continue to escalate amid the ongoing conflict.

In a post on his Truth Social platform Sunday morning, Trump suggested Iran would face attacks on key infrastructure and bridges if it did not comply, writing: “Open the F*****’ Strait you crazy b*******, or you’ll be living in Hell—JUST WATCH!” The statement, which also included a reference to Islamic religious language, marked one of Trump’s most explicit public threats yet as the conflict intensified."

HU:

Backpacks full of explosives found near Serbia-Hungary gas pipeline, leaders say

"Two backpacks containing explosives were found near a pipeline in Serbia near the Hungarian border carrying Russian gas, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Sunday.

Both Serbia and Hungary are still heavily reliant on Russian energy supplies, putting them odds with other European countries seeking to reduce their reliance on Russian supplies."

Considering who this news is coming from, it looks like amateur efforts at a false flag operation to try and up OV's election message.

HU:

Travel Warning I received:

Hungary: Parliamentary elections to take place on 12 April

On 12 April 2026 nationwide parliamentary elections will be held. Polling stations will be open from 06:00 - 19:00 local time (04:00 - 17:00 GMT). Heightened security measures will likely be in place near polling stations and in central areas of cities. Election-related demonstrations and rallies are expected over the coming days. Any large gatherings will likely prompt overland travel disruptions due to crowds and heightened security measures. Some recent political rallies have included hundreds of thousands of participants. Political tensions in country are heightened and following the announcement of results, protests may occur. Individuals should avoid all large crowds as a precaution, consult media sources for further information, exercise heightened security awareness and follow all directives from local authorities.   

It's an electoral autocracy. - @fluffy2560

It's a democratically elected government that you don't like.

Autocracy is a system of government where supreme power and authority are concentrated in the hands of a single individual (an autocrat) or a small group, who rule without effective constitutional, legal, or legislative restraints.

The government was elected in free and fair votes - That isn't an autocracy, it's just you calling them names that suit your opinions.

Hungary is increasingly considered an "electoral autocracy" or "hybrid regime" rather than a full democracy, having experienced significant democratic backsliding under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán since 2010. While it holds elections, observers note restricted media freedom, judicial interference, and gerrymandering that favor the ruling Fidesz party.

https://theconversation.com/i-watched-h … ers-224930

In 2022, the European Union (EU) formally described Hungary as an electoral autocracy—a system that holds elections but lacks democratic fairness.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/ … -democracy

The government has established a dominant conservative media ecosystem, reducing access to independent media. Over the past decade, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his allies have systematically gained control of roughly 90% of the country's media landscape. This control is achieved through state-owned media, ownership by loyal oligarchs, and the consolidation of over 470 outlets under the pro-government KESMA foundation, severely limiting independent journalism.

The ruling party is in power because they won the election, and several of the previous ones.

No coup, just an election.

It's only not a democracy because political opponents (domestic and foreign) say it isn't.

Now, to the European Commission. Is that bunch of gravy train riders elected?

If you want democracy,  you have to reform the people who claim they want democracy first.

The government has established a dominant conservative media ecosystem, reducing access to independent media. Over the past decade, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his allies have systematically gained control of roughly 90% of the country's media landscape. This control is achieved through state-owned media, ownership by loyal oligarchs, and the consolidation of over 470 outlets under the pro-government KESMA foundation, severely limiting independent journalism. - @SimCityAT

That's a good summary.  The pro-government media control works totally to OV's advantage. 

A quick chat with the elderly neighbours (80 years old), very typical kind of OV voter (blue collar, retired, not travelled, no foreign language knowledge etc), reveals the war message touted by OV is working.  Mrs F's advice to them was to stop watching state owned TV.   

Luckily the younger generation I believe has added 0.5M voters since the last election.  They are - if one believes the polls - not going to vote for OV.   

It's going to take some years to dismantle the OV mess.   We're hopeful about that but it will be ambitious. We hope to see how much is obtainable.

We're expecting Hatvanpuszta to be raided and/or opened to the public like the palaces/houses of other dictators around here have been or will be eventually.   It's become something of a lightning rod for those opposing OV.  The bison and zebras are not helping.

Other dictators

@fluffy2560

That indicates that a freely elected leader is a dictator.

He's one or the other - He was chosen, so guess which one.

Using lies to get your point across only shows the weakness of your position. You want to get rid of the foreign government (in the country you choose to visit) because you don't like it.

Emotional outbursts are not logical arguments.

HU (Euronews):

Pro-Orbán actors accuse Meta of interference in Hungarian elections, despite lack of evidence

"Meta has found itself embroiled in Hungary's tense election campaign, after supporters of the ruling Fidesz party claimed their posts are being restricted to favour opposition parties. In reality, there is no weight to the allegations.

Social media accounts backing Hungary's ruling right-wing populist party Fidesz have accused tech giant Meta of political interference in the country's upcoming elections, alleging that the party and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are being censored.

Fidesz campaign chief Balázs Orbán also threw his weight behind the allegations.

"We have received numerous reports that some users have been unable to like Fidesz-related content on Facebook for the past few days", he said on 29 March.

However, The Cube, Euronews' fact-checking team, was not able to gather any valid evidence to back these claims."

HU (Euronews):
Pro-Orbán actors accuse Meta of interference in Hungarian elections, despite lack of evidence

"Meta has found itself embroiled in Hungary's tense election campaign, after supporters of the ruling Fidesz party claimed their posts are being restricted to favour opposition parties. In reality, there is no weight to the allegations.

However, The Cube, Euronews' fact-checking team, was not able to gather any valid evidence to back these claims." - @fluffy2560

Readers might note Europe's is funded by the EU and Alpac Capital.

Both of these have an interest in removing the democratically elected government of Hungary.

Believing the story without checking its validity would be rather foolish.

Believing the story without checking its validity would be rather foolish. - @Fred

Readers are NOT stupid because time after time, FACTS have been posted about what Hungary is really like and its government in all the above posts. I shall also remind readers that @Fred lives in Indonesia, another continent - 10,360–11,173 kilometres (about 6,437–6,943 miles). Flights between the two countries typically take over 19–24 hours. So frankly, has not the foggiest what is really happening in the country. I would also just like to point out that the Hungarian government controls 90% of the country's news and media and has slowly been removing any independent broadcasters since 2010. 

Readers are NOT stupid because time after time, FACTS have been posted about what Hungary is really like and its government in all the above posts. I shall also remind readers that @Fred lives in Indonesia, another continent - 10,360–11,173 kilometres (about 6,437–6,943 miles). Flights between the two countries typically take over 19–24 hours. So frankly, has not the foggiest what is really happening in the country. I would also just like to point out that the Hungarian government controls 90% of the country's news and media and has slowly been removing any independent broadcasters since 2010. - @SimCityAT

Yup, nailed it in that summary.   The article was about Euronews using their fact finding team and found no evidence for Fidesz's claims.   And that's the end of story.  If it had legs, it'd be back again reported elsewhere.  No-one else has picked it up.  Non-starter.

BTW, I just read that Tisza need 55% to win but Fidesz need only 45% to lead a majority government with powers to change the constitution.  That's what gerrymandering gets you.   Tisza wins popular vote but doesn't gain power.  Kind of reminds me of the US election way back.

Yup, nailed it in that summary. The article was about Euronews using their fact finding team and found no evidence for Fidesz's claims. - @fluffy2560

Of course they didn't. They are paid by the EU, a group out to dump the elect3d political party, so we have no idea if they simply made up the results to suit their position.

It can be difficult for those who think in terms of "you either support us or you're against us" to grasp as they commonly want to believe 'news' their supports their points of view.

It's strange how rather vocal critics of the government don't believe news from outlets that supports their enemy, but they do believe news paid for by foreign enemies of their pet hate.

It's rather amusing in some ways,  but somewhat concerning when you consider the death of critical thinking that is on display here.

The amusing side is how a post encouraging thinking skills is seen as pro-government.

It's hard for two dimensional thinkers to understand disinterested observers as their own biases demand absolute believe in anything that supports their position, and total invisibility for everything that suggests they should look deeply at the subject in question.

"He's not in Hungry", cry they, then add comment on US politics.

Never attack the idea when you can attack the poster.

The point remains - You can't believe news that's paid for by an interested party until it has been verified by a non-partisan outlet. Believing it because you want to is far from logical.

HU:

JD Vance visits Viktor Orban ahead of Hungary's high-stakes parliamentary elections

"US Vice President JD Vance flew to Hungary on Monday to back nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban ahead of a closely contested parliamentary election. Vance said talks would cover bilateral ties, Europe and Ukraine. He is due to meet Orban and deliver a speech highlighting US-Hungary relations, his office said."

I watched his plane arrived on Flight Radar 24.   Flew in on a private type jet quite late last night.   Our kid reports the flags are out along Shady's route to wherever he's going from the airport.

Flags on his route.

Anything to cover up the run down buildings leading from the airport to the downtown area.

It looks bad near the airport coming in for tourists.

They should build a wall, as Trump would say or fix it up.

Will be an interesting and important vote.

Flags on his route.Anything to cover up the run down buildings leading from the airport to the downtown area.It looks bad near the airport coming in for tourists.They should build a wall, as Trump would say or fix it up.Will be an interesting and important vote. - @Marilyn Tassy

I don't know where he's staying.   Could be at the Ambassador's residence which will block up tourists at the chair lift.  But more likely he's in some hotel like the Kempinski.  Ambassador's residence is not that far from our house and it's just off the main drag down to Moscow Square.  Avoid! Totally!  People are annoyed by Trump so having his sycophant on site is hardly going to help OV get elected - who in their right mind would be convinced by that?  I see it as a total negative.

My eldest and her BF are coming in Friday.  I did say don't come this weekend due to the election but they booked it anyway.   I said about 100 times, it's not the best idea. They leave Monday so most results won't be known until perhaps Tuesday and Wednesday so they'll be back home before and if there is in trouble.   

Mrs F is taking it all very seriously.  She's stocking up on food and filling up the car.   I will also fill my hobby car up just in case.

HU (DW):

Hungary: Europe or an authoritarian path?

Video report by DW.  Some reporting from Paty, which is one village over from ours.

Flew in on a private type jet quite late last night. - @fluffy2560

That 'private jet' was the Boeing C32A known as Air Force 2 when Vance is on board.

I think it could have been a support plane.   

FR24 said it was a private jet (type GL50) but obfuscated data probably as data sharing is voluntary.

Pictures from the airport show it as a Boeing.   The one I observed arrived about 22h from Washington.

The flight is not on the arrivals list in FR24 - private jets do appear on the list usually.  No listing of departure I could find.

Never mind, the guy is here now, makes no difference.

I think it could have been a support plane.
FR24 said it was a private jet (type GL50) but obfuscated data probably as data sharing is voluntary.

Pictures from the airport show it as a Boeing. The one I observed arrived about 22h from Washington.

The flight is not on the arrivals list in FR24 - private jets do appear on the list usually. No listing of departure I could find.

Never mind, the guy is here now, makes no difference. - @fluffy2560

There are photos of Vance getting onto Air Force 2.  It's not hard.

Iran war latest: 'A whole civilisation will die tonight' - Trump warns Tehran as his Strait of Hormuz deadline looms

One can only hope he isn't stupid enough to use nukes.

One can only hope he isn't stupid enough to use nukes. - @Fred

Hope they aren't stupid enough to use nukes. Both aggressor nations are nuclear armed.

Flags on his route.Anything to cover up the run down buildings leading from the airport to the downtown area.It looks bad near the airport coming in for tourists.They should build a wall, as Trump would say or fix it up.Will be an interesting and important vote. - @Marilyn Tassy
I don't know where he's staying. Could be at the Ambassador's residence which will block up tourists at the chair lift. But more likely he's in some hotel like the Kempinski. Ambassador's residence is not that far from our house and it's just off the main drag down to Moscow Square. Avoid! Totally! People are annoyed by Trump so having his sycophant on site is hardly going to help OV get elected - who in their right mind would be convinced by that? I see it as a total negative.
My eldest and her BF are coming in Friday. I did say don't come this weekend due to the election but they booked it anyway. I said about 100 times, it's not the best idea. They leave Monday so most results won't be known until perhaps Tuesday and Wednesday so they'll be back home before and if there is in trouble.

Mrs F is taking it all very seriously. She's stocking up on food and filling up the car. I will also fill my hobby car up just in case. - @fluffy2560

Not a bad idea to stock up. This seems like insanity but no fear; good always wins over evil sooner or later, it is the later we stress about.

Trump looks like a puppet ATM as they all do.

Would be nice to know who or What is pulling the strings.

Hope the family visit is nice, we must hold on to good times and memories.