International Relations

HU (Telex):

Article on Telex about Vance's visit.

He IS staying at the Ambassador's Residence.   So yes, streets around there will be totally messed up.  And the chairlift will be stopped probably. 

Traffic is totally screwed near the airport - people were having to walk 35m to the terminal from the shopping area nearby.  There are pictures showing lots of people with their bags walking towards T2 near the Aviation Museum.

Not a bad idea to stock up. This seems like insanity but no fear; good always wins over evil sooner or later, it is the later we stress about.Trump looks like a puppet ATM as they all do.Would be nice to know who or What is pulling the strings. Hope the family visit is nice, we must hold on to good times and memories. - @Marilyn Tassy

I don't know what Trump is smoking but it's not looking good for Iran. I am not not sure to what he's referring to when he says it's the end of Iranian civilisation.  They've been there for thousands of years.  Trump is just a bump on a rocky road for all of us.  Maybe he means Islamic Republic.  No-one is a TACO man mind reader.  But the only way he can flatten them forever is to nuke them.  Either way, it'll soon descend into chaos, civil war and misery.   And Cuba will be next. Thanks a lot Donny and your handler Putin.

BTW, Vance says EU is interfering in the HU election.  The irony of him saying that when he's just arrived to give OV a rear end boost by proxy from TACO man.  Bonkers.

HU (BBC): Following talks with Orbán, Vance launched a bitter attack on the European Union and Ukraine. He accused the EU of "one of the worst examples of foreign election interference that I have ever seen or ever even read about... because they hate this guy".  Vance added that "part of the reason" for his visit was because "interference that's come from the bureaucracy in Brussels has been truly disgraceful".

Anyhoo, I think 2am CET, we'll see what DJT is going to do. I reckon he'll back down and do nothing.  There are reports of Iranians surrounding power stations in human chains.  What now then Donny?  Declare victory?

I reckon there's a chance Donny will use a land operation to place a nuclear weapon to destroy one of the Iranian underground nuclear sites.  I am guessing Fordow - click for map.   This will be very "visible" from Tehran.   It'll be limited use of a nuclear weapon and most of it contained underground.  I doubt it will bring down the regime. 

Trump's threat is close, if he actually does anything.

He says he will destroy Iran in one night if the sealane isn't open, but a number of countries have already solved the problem.

These countries have simply rejected US and Israel, declared peace, and their ships have safe passage.

Iran, regardless of what Trump does, has won a victory for the whole world.

Biden started walking down the path that will end US hegemony when he stole Russia's money,  but Trump has got accelerated the process in ways only a certified loony could have imagined ten years ago.

We are now a very few hours from Trump's threat - I wonder how stupid he will be.

US:

2 week ceasefire.   Now we wait.   

Apparently TACO-man been saying "we won", which is obviously not true.

Makes one wonder what it was all about - presumably grabbing and controlling oil there.

No-one seems to know what the plan is or was.

HU (The Guardian):

Video report:

Is this the end of Viktor Orbán in Hungary? | On the Ground

"Over the past 16 years prime minister Viktor Orbán has turned Hungary into what he calls an ‘illiberal democracy’, using a parliamentary supermajority to effect constitutional control over institutions, targeting minorities, political opponents and the independent media in the process."

The presenter is OK but he doesn't pronounce politicians' names properly and his HU pronunciation overall is terrible.   A lot of it was filmed around Ujbuda.  The bit about the YT ("social media") breakfast channel in Debrecen was interesting.  Big student town.

Also (MSNOW):

What we saw was extraordinary': David French breaks down the significance of Vance's Hungary trip

"Vice President JD Vance is in Hungary as a show of support for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his reelection campaign. The Morning Joe panel discusses."

Vance is absolutely just as bonkers as Trump.  Deluded hysterical people.

using a parliamentary supermajority to effect constitutional control over institutions - @fluffy2560

Elected governments are given a mandate to do so by the majority of the voting public. If a leader has a supermajority, and has kept it over several terms, he's clearly very popular.

The problem, if there is one, is with the majority of the Hungarian people because they keep voting them in. If you dislike that system, try organising a revolution so you can put your preferred people into power and claim they was a popular people's uprising.

That worked out so well for Ukraine. They had a free democracy but a revolutionary government took power in a coup and disenfranchised all the people who were likely vote against them. True democracy supported by you, except your fine Ukrainian government is an unelected group put into power by a foreign government.  Iran's CIA run coup against their democracy worked out even better.

Yep, great models for your wish to remove what has been a very popular, multi-term government in Hungary.

You don't like the government so you call them names and claim they are undemocratic,  then you admit they won massive majorities in every election.

The real problem is your terribly dangerous,  poorly thought out, pseudo-democracic ideal. If you don't like the elected party, it must be removed because the Hungarian people have made the wrong choice over several elections.

Hungarians are clearly far too stupid to vote your 'correct' government into power - You must help them.

Power to the people, even if that means getting rid of their democracy.

HU (Euronews):

Orbán's Fidesz bypassing Meta's political advertising rules, researchers warn

"Meta blocked political advertisements on Facebook and Instagram in October, but misinformation researchers warn that the ban has pushed political ads by Orbán's Fidesz underground. Disinformation researchers are warning that Hungary's ruling party, Fidesz, and its proxies are bypassing a ban on political advertisements across Meta platforms, ahead of the country's national elections scheduled for 12 April. According to research by the Hungarian Digital Media Observatory, "there is a real risk that the Hungarian election campaign and other upcoming campaigns will be influenced by a significant number of illicit political ads — including deepfakes — with a huge reach."  Tech giant Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, banned all political, electoral and social advertisements on its EU platforms in October 2025, citing "unworkable requirements and legal uncertainties", while Google has also opted to stop showing political ads in the EU."

Proxies mentioned might be GRU operatives from Russia after OV "eliminated" their Schengen visa requirements.

BTW, media is supposed to be quiet the day before the election so probably best for discussions to be stumm on Saturday 11th until Monday 13th (or at least until after the polls have closed on the 12th).

HU (CNN):

Trump could soon lose his best friend in Europe

"Budapest, Hungary —  When Vice President JD Vance held his phone to the mic, it seemed for a moment as though his boss might not pick up. But at the second attempt, and after a few rings, he got through to Donald Trump. In the president’s defense, he had plenty on his mind, having threatened hours earlier to destroy “a whole civilization” in Iran."

Unfortunately it looks like Vance won't leave until Friday, so we still have at least 1 day of inconvenience to go.

US (Newsweek):

Trump Floats Pulling US Troops From ‘Unhelpful’ NATO Countries

"The Trump administration is considering a plan to punish certain NATO allies it views as insufficiently supportive during the war with Iran, including by relocating U.S. troops away from countries seen as unhelpful, according to administration officials cited by The Wall Street Journal.

The proposal under discussion would shift U.S. forces out of some NATO member states and move them to countries judged to have backed the U.S. military campaign more strongly, the Journal reported. While the plan would stop short of President Donald Trump’s recent threats to fully withdraw the United States from NATO—a move that would require congressional approval—it would represent a significant escalation in tensions within the alliance."

Day 41

Fragile truce: The two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US is holding but under strain, with Iran halting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Israel striking Lebanon and conflicting messages on a longer-term peace plan;

Trump threats: Donald Trump said US troops would remain in the Middle East and warned that if a deal was not reached with Iran the "shootin' starts";

Pakistan hosts talks: US and Iranian delegations will begin negotiations in Islamabad on Saturday, with vice president JD Vance leading the American side. The White House has rejected Iran's publicised 10-point plan, saying it was "literally thrown in the garbage" by Trump and Tehran had put forward an "entirely different" negotiation position in private talks;

Israel bombs Lebanon: Israel's intense strikes on Lebanon in its fight against Iran-backed Hezbollah yesterday have drawn international criticism after more than 250 people were killed. Hezbollah responded with rocket fire overnight, saying Israel had violated the ceasefire;

Is Lebanon part of ceasefire? But Israel and the White House insist Lebanon isn't part of the agreement. Both Iran and Pakistan, which helped broker the truce, disagree;

Strait of Hormuz closed: Iran has halted shipping traffic in the key waterway in retaliation for Israel's strikes on Lebanon, issuing a map showing a "danger zone" showing possible mines;

Netanyahu says this is not the end: Israel's prime minister said his country still had goals in its war with Iran, despite the ceasefire. He vowed to remove Iran's nuclear material from the country, either by winning the war or reaching an agreement.

Day 41Fragile truce: The two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US is holding but under strain, with Iran halting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Israel striking Lebanon and conflicting messages on a longer-term peace plan;Trump threats: Donald Trump said US troops would remain in the Middle East and warned that if a deal was not reached with Iran the "shootin' starts";Pakistan hosts talks: US and Iranian delegations will begin negotiations in Islamabad on Saturday, with vice president JD Vance leading the American side. The White House has rejected Iran's publicised 10-point plan, saying it was "literally thrown in the garbage" by Trump and Tehran had put forward an "entirely different" negotiation position in private talks; Israel bombs Lebanon: Israel's intense strikes on Lebanon in its fight against Iran-backed Hezbollah yesterday have drawn international criticism after more than 250 people were killed. Hezbollah responded with rocket fire overnight, saying Israel had violated the ceasefire;Is Lebanon part of ceasefire? But Israel and the White House insist Lebanon isn't part of the agreement. Both Iran and Pakistan, which helped broker the truce, disagree;Strait of Hormuz closed: Iran has halted shipping traffic in the key waterway in retaliation for Israel's strikes on Lebanon, issuing a map showing a "danger zone" showing possible mines;Netanyahu says this is not the end: Israel's prime minister said his country still had goals in its war with Iran, despite the ceasefire. He vowed to remove Iran's nuclear material from the country, either by winning the war or reaching an agreement. - @SimCityAT

Good summary. 

I think the ceasefire will not hold because of Lebanon and the erratic agreement (apparently) to collect tolls from ships passing Hormuz.  Remarkable that Trump is hinting he'll take a cut from the Iranian toll.  In other words, he's entering into a deal with the IRGC.

What he cannot say is that he lost the war so it's all mouth and no trousers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ … tion-orban

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ … tion-orban - @SimCityAT

Funded by the EU, and run by Mark Leonard, a pal of Tony Blair.

Not exactly a reliable source.

The poll of 1001 selected people from a population of 10 million is here. The poll was funded by the EU.

https://ecfr.eu/article/why-orban-and-h … -the-same/

Mrs F got a call from pollsters this morning. 

She declined to participate as they did not identify which polling company they were with.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ … tion-orban - @SimCityAT

Good article and fair comments from those interpreting it.  They are quite right.  Most on the OV side are parroting what the HU media say - majority of which is controlled by Fidesz.

That last bit says a lot:

"The authors also warned that a change of government would first and foremost require “Hungary’s own house to be put in order first”, so European leaders should “work with the new government to establish what the new normal should mean”.

I reckon at least one or two election cycles to de-Orbanise the country.    But I don't share any pessimism that it cannot be done.  Most people are looking for change and a different narrative.  I think MP will move fast to show the break with the corrupt and self-serving old guard.

I live in a strong Fidesz area.  Local government is dominated by OV brown nosers.   We've been advised by people more connected than us to keep stumm in case someone sets fire to our car.  No posters, no discussion, no sharing other than inside the wider family.    It has come down now to those kinds of threats being tossed around.

I know a lot of Hungarians, a huge amount in fact, because they live and work in Austria. They do so for a better life and high wages. They all support the EU, naturally.

As Ive said elsewhere, lots of people in Austria work and return home for the weekend, I'm sure they would support the EU as well, as they work visa-free.

But hey, what do I know? I only live here and face them every day.

It will be the old who support Victor, pretty much like those who supported Farage. Like my dad, he voted for Brexit and now regrets it.

HU (Arte.tv)

Inside Hungary: A Change of Power? | ARTE.tv Documentary

In Hungarian with English subtitles. ARTE is a respected French-German TV channel often to be found on cable TV in Hungary.

"Elections on 12 April could be crucial for Hungary and for Europe. Victor Orban, in power for 16 years, could be beaten by leader of the opposition Peter Magyar. Tracks East went to Hungary to check the pulse of the nation at election time."

@fluffy2560

Surely this must be EU propaganda?

@fluffy2560Surely this must be EU propaganda? - @SimCityAT

Oh yes, French-German anti-OV rhetoric.

If you watch it, OV blames Germany for everything (mostly).

Towards the end - for balance - they show OV supporters and MP supporters. 

OV is definitely for the conservative countryside people and MP is more younger urban dwellers.

@fluffy2560
Surely this must be EU propaganda? - @SimCityAT

Critical thinking dictates any story in a biased outlet must be confirmed with unbiased sources before it can be acceptedas fact.

Given that the stories quoted here are from EU funded news quoting an EU funded poll, one has to consider it suspect.

That doesn't mean it's wrong, just that it can't be trusted.

In an unthinking world where people accept any rubbish that backs up their personal opinions, anyone questioning the validity of a story is a raving Hungarian government supporter.

Their minds are too weak to understand the concept of disinterested observation.

Sadly, the 'me first because I'm right' attitude causes real world issues if enough blithering idiots support propaganda without thought. See WMD - That was unbiased truth as well.

TR (Euronews):

'NATO not obliged to reopen the Strait,' Turkey's trade minister tells Euronews

"US President Trump has issued an ultimatum to NATO countries to find a solution to reopening the Strait of Hormuz within days. Turkey – which has the second-largest army in NATO – says the alliance is not obliged to intervene.

NATO allies are not “obliged” to assist the United States and Israel in the war with Iran, Turkey’s Trade Minister, Ömer Bolat, told Euronews’ Europe Today.

US President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington, DC, urging allies to find a solution to reopening the Strait of Hormuz within days."

No fan of the Turkish government but their Minister is right.  What's TACO going to do if NATO (collectively) doesn't come up with a solution?   

Russia is,  as I suggested,  escorting it's tankers with military vessels in order to discourage the US (and US lapdog countries) from pirate attacks.

https://www.navylookout.com/royal-navy- … g-dilemma/

Three Russian submarines were detected by the UK in the North Atlantic loitering over critical undersea cables, the defence secretary said.

Three Russian submarines were detected by the UK in the North Atlantic loitering over critical undersea cables, the defence secretary said. - @SimCityAT

It's a bit of an old story.   I suppose what they are saying is the detection network is working sufficiently well to see their submarines.  I think - unfortunately - the network of hydrophones is owned by the USA.  If Trump pulls the plug on NATO, I guess they will be out of action as a lot of them will be in national waters of the states surrounding submarine alley to the Atlantic.

Vlad will be so happy.  I guess it's one of those "never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake" moments.

I did hear a slot on the radio which says that Donny has outlived his usefulness as an RU asset now.  Effectively the speaker was saying he's going to go down in flames in the mid-terms, become a lame duck and therefore Putin will be much more on his own. 

I guess it was profitable while it lasted.

EU (Euronews):

Elections in Hungary: What do the polls say?

"Medián, currently considered among the most accurate pollsters in Hungary, predicts a two-thirds majority in parliament for opposition party Tisza. Most other pollsters estimate a smaller lead for them, while few have the ruling Fidesz party narrowly ahead."

There's a large (free) concert in Heroes Square tonight - starts 17h, finishes 22h.

According to an eyewitness (our daughter) and online news video, queues are already forming up to join the crowds.

It's certainly heating up down there in town.  We're going down there to see what is going on.

HU (Telex) (in English):

Absurd cash burning with EU funds

"On the 20th anniversary of Hungary's accession to the EU, we explored what happened to Hungary's ten most botched cash-burning investments. Some of them are completely gone, in other cases the ruins are still visible. Some have worked out quite well, while others have presented a new challenge to local government."

And on YT (from 2024) (in English):

Mr Orbán, you are not a patriot! You are just a useful idiot of Russia and China! That's the reality

UK (BBC):

UK shelves Chagos deal after Trump opposition

"Sir Keir Starmer has shelved his Chagos Islands deal amid worsening relations with Donald Trump after the US failed to formally confirm its approval.

Trump had urged Starmer to scrap the deal despite earlier expressing support for the treaty. In January the president called the plan an "act of total weakness".

UK government officials have said they are not entirely abandoning the agreement - which would hand sovereignty of the British territory to Mauritius - but have run out of time to pass legislation before Parliament is prorogued in the coming weeks."

It looks like common sense has prevailed.  And not because of Trump either although it looks like his flip flopping did not hurt.   The Chagossians have been hard done by and the UK government has been responsible for that.  Maybe they will be finally allowed to return to their homeland with HMG support.

HU (Telex) (in English):Absurd cash burning with EU funds"On the 20th anniversary of Hungary's accession to the EU, we explored what happened to Hungary's ten most botched cash-burning investments. Some of them are completely gone, in other cases the ruins are still visible. Some have worked out quite well, while others have presented a new challenge to local government."And on YT (from 2024) (in English):Mr Orbán, you are not a patriot! You are just a useful idiot of Russia and China! That's the reality - @fluffy2560

When you want to make a country sound bad, you post links with notable political bias, but totally ignore the rest of the situation.

The utter balderdash above is a fine example.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/18 … ts-failure

The slightest bit of searching shows this happens all over the EU, not just in the country you want us to hate.

The EU is the only common factor in every waste of money.

HU (DW):

Hungary election 2026: power, billions and Orban's rule

"This DW report exposes alleged corruption, oligarchy and authoritarian governance under Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, focusing on how public funds and EU subsidies have enriched his family and close associates. Investigations by opposition politician Ákos Hadházy, journalists and EU officials reveal lavish properties, rigged government contracts, and billions of euros in suspected embezzlement tied to Orban's inner circle, including his childhood friend Lőrinc Mészáros and son-in-law István Tiborcz."

Update: Mrs F reports large queues at the petrol station.  Presumably caution due to potential unrest post-election.  Or simple price rises if the subsidy is removed. 

And on YT (from 2024) (in English):

Mr Orbán, you are not a patriot! You are just a useful idiot of Russia and China! That's the reality - @fluffy2560

Given that's the opposition,  it's just a political message, not fact.

It's also interesting how he uses insults in place of arguments.

https://balkaninsight.com/2026/04/06/co … egrity/rd/

Just in case the EU funded propaganda fails, the backup story about a fixed election is ready.

Foreign ownership or funding for a nation's press must be banned in every country.

US/Vatican (Euronews):

Pentagon denies threatening Vatican over pope's remarks on US intervention in Iran

"Pentagon and Vatican envoys have both denied reports that US officials gave the Holy See's ambassador to the US a "bitter lecture," demanding the Church align with the Trump administration over Pope Leo XIV's criticism of the Iran war.

The Pentagon on Thursday denied a report that the Vatican's US envoy was summoned in January for a "bitter" dressing down over remarks by Pope Leo XIV that were seen as criticising the Trump administration’s use of military force.

According to The Free Press, which shares common ownership with CBS News, Cardinal Christophe Pierre was given a "bitter lecture" by US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby."

As reported in the mainstream press.  If there's any truth to the report, WTF is going on?  I wonder if Mango Man is intending to invade the Vatican?   Or perhaps, more specifically, why bother hassling the Vatican?  Trump thinks he's the competing Messiah?

BTW, there was a off the cuff remark on the recent Graceland visit where Trump mused if he could beat Elvis in a fight.  WTF? 25th Amendment please.

HU (personal observations):

Mrs F and No. 3 HU daughter  report that casual interactions at the polling station with locals suggest very strong turnout for Tisza and weak support for Fidesz. 

We will not know any results until after 19h tonight.

@fluffy2560

Record turnout the news is reporting.

@fluffy2560Record turnout the news is reporting. - @SimCityAT

Mrs F is telling me social media has some reports on intimidation and bribery.  People being given cash and vouchers. Not cool.

We'll have to wait for the OSCE report for full info.  There are 900 election monitors on the ground.

HU:

Turnout is already 70%+.

Massive!

Turnout hit 77.8% at 6.30pm local time.

Opposition party projected to oust Orban in two polls

With polls now closed, an embargo has been lifted on polling results collected in the days running up to the election.

Two polls project the opposition Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, to beat incumbent prime minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party.

Remember, these are not the results of today's exit poll - we are expecting them between 7pm and 9pm.

Median poll projection

Tisza to win with 57% of the vote

And 135 of 199 seats in parliament

21 Research Centre poll projection

Tisza to win with 55% of the vote

And 132 of 199 seats in parliament

Fidesz to win 38%

The difference between the two projected victories is that Median's would hand Tisza a powerful supermajority in parliament (133 seats or more).

Both polls predict a massive voter swing from the last election in 2022, when Orban's Fidesz party won 135 seats.

Both polls predict a massive voter swing from the last election in 2022, when Orban's Fidesz party won 135 seats. - @SimCityAT

What?

That means it was a democracy all this time.