International Relations

US has been late to the party in the Pacific.  - @fluffy2560
That's pretty average. The US was late for all of the wars it didn't start.
Of course, it started most of then since 1945. - @Fred

I agree with that.  They also have won few wars - if any - on their own.

Venezuela might be next but I don't see they (the US) has anything like the troop numbers to occupy the country.

The UNCLOS arbitration is a reasonable starting point but I don't hold out much hope for it to be resolved under the current circumstances.

Mango Man should work on that as it's really an intractable one and he thinks he's good at that stuff. - @fluffy2560

The US isn't a signatory, so your point is worth the same as most of your wisdom.

I think you'll find the history of those islands differs widely.
Some islands were pretty much completely Japanese.
- @fluffy2560
Hawaii. Invaded by US Marine forces, then rigged elections took then step by step into the US of A
Guam. War bounty taken from the Spanish
Both were militarised by the nation that cries about China militarising uninhabited islands as a first line of defence. - @Fred

Ancient history. Hawaii was actually aligned to the British.  Hence the Union flag included in their state flag.

In the big scheme of things, the idea of those islands being aircraft carriers or being in any way significant is overblown.  They are however on important trade routes.  Yet a  couple of cruise missiles on them and that's the end of them as an effective weapon.  Same with their mobile aircraft carriers.  Couple of torpedoes and they are artificial reefs.

US has been late to the party in the Pacific. - @fluffy2560
That's pretty average. The US was late for all of the wars it didn't start.
Of course, it started most of then since 1945. - @Fred
I agree with that. They also have won few wars - if any - on their own.
Venezuela might be next but I don't see they (the US) has anything like the troop numbers to occupy the country. - @fluffy2560

Venezuela might be the next country with no ability to attack the US to be the victim of mass murder of its population by the US.

Ancient history. Hawaii was actually aligned to the British. Hence the Union flag included in their state flag.
In the big scheme of things, the idea of those islands being aircraft carriers or being in any way significant is overblown. They are however on important trade routes. Yet a couple of cruise missiles on them and that's the end of them as an effective weapon. Same with their mobile aircraft carriers. Couple of torpedoes and they are artificial reefs. - @fluffy2560

A statute of limitations on abducting queens and threatening to kill everyone. Of course I agree. It isn't a crime if you get away with it for long enough.

I believe that I mentioned that the Chinese island defences are an expandable first line. Their role is to warn and disrupt, not win.

Should the US start yet another war, the islands will fall quickly, but the US is very likely to lose a carrier or two not long after.

However, the US has, since 1944, only attacked countries that have no serious defence- It's called cowardice.

The UNCLOS arbitration is a reasonable starting point but I don't hold out much hope for it to be resolved under the current circumstances.Mango Man should work on that as it's really an intractable one and he thinks he's good at that stuff. - @fluffy2560The US isn't a signatory, so your point is worth the same as most of your wisdom. - @Fred

Nah, that's daft.  Mr Mango can do whatever he wants.  And I did say starting point.

He's just stuck his face into the Cambodia-Thailand conflict.  US is not a signatory there either.

Just grandstanding BS.

Venezuela might be next but I don't see they (the US) has anything like the troop numbers to occupy the country. - @fluffy2560
Venezuela might be the next country with no ability to attack the US to be the victim of mass murder of its population by the US. - @Fred

I dunno, there's a chance of regime change if sufficient people rise up.  But I don't think it's much of a tactic to take out random boats and is hardly going to win hearts and minds.  And of course, so much for the US saying it doesn't want to be involved in wars.  There's a lot of oil in Venezuela so it's probably about that.  The rest is a smokescreen.

A statute of limitations on abducting queens and threatening to kill everyone. Of course I agree. It isn't a crime if you get away with it for long enough.I believe that I mentioned that the Chinese island defences are an expandable first line. Their role is to warn and disrupt, not win.Should the US start yet another war, the islands will fall quickly, but the US is very likely to lose a carrier or two not long after.However, the US has, since 1944, only attacked countries that have no serious defence- It's called cowardice. - @Fred

You mean expendable.  Or perhaps both expendable and expandable.  Maybe just elastic.

US has a few carriers and so won't miss a couple.  It's also got quite a lot of subs so that's going to overwhelm the PLA pretty sharpish.

Business is more worthwhile than war so why bother?  Maybe it's just a Finkelstein 101 manouevre.

I wonder however who is going to join in if there are real fisticuffs. Probably few European nations as they are all occupied with conflict in Ukraine. Maybe the usual suspects: UK, France, Canada, Australia and NZ etc

@fluffy2560

@fluffy2560
- @SimCityAT

Yeah right Donny, we believe you.

But I don't think it's much of a tactic to take out random boats and is hardly going to win hearts and minds.
- @fluffy2560

Extrajudicial killings are generally considered to be murder

US has a few carriers and so won't miss a couple. It's also got quite a lot of subs so that's going to overwhelm the PLA pretty sharpish.
- @fluffy2560

4,000 flags to put on 4,000 coffins per sunken carrier.

With 11 carriers to cover the world,  2 is a big loss.

If US subs attack, the Chinese have missiles that can turn Washington and New York into rubble.

The US doesn't attack people who can hit back. They are a coward nation.

But I don't think it's much of a tactic to take out random boats and is hardly going to win hearts and minds.
- @fluffy2560
Extrajudicial killings are generally considered to be murder
- @Fred

I agree but I cannot see Trump standing trial for anything he's been doing.   He's got carte blanche right now.

If - according to Steve Bannon* - he gets a third term however that is done, he'll likely die in harness and never pay for his misdeeds.  He'd be 83 at a next term. And that's if he manages to survive this term.  Apparently he was having an MRI the other day but there's no info on what is actually wrong with him.   

*he was interviewed by The Economist the other day.

I agree but I cannot see Trump standing trial for anything he's been doing. He's got carte blanche right now.
If - according to Steve Bannon* - he gets a third term however that is done, he'll likely die in harness and never pay for his misdeeds. He'd be 83 at a next term. And that's if he manages to survive this term. Apparently he was having an MRI the other day but there's no info on what is actually wrong with him.

*he was interviewed by The Economist the other day. - @fluffy2560

We alread know Trump has chronic venous insufficiency, so there's a better than average chance he will have heart complications as well.

Sadly - yes, I mean that - we have a fair chance of reading some pretty nasty obituaries with him as the subject in the next couple of years.

I think Trump is great. Biden started the destruction of the Dollar when he stole Russia's money, but Trump is making a pig's ear of everything America rules with. In defunding USAID, he dismantled a lot of the CIA's network all over the word, and that's just the tip of his disastrous iceberg.  China is taking full advantage of Trump's idiocy - as Trump fills his wallet with dodgy deals, China is steadily taking trade away from the 'wizard of Oz' Dollar. Unlike Baum's mighty Oz, the Dollar held great power, but it's rapidly sinking to toilet paper value as Trump makes the world hate the US more than it ever did.

Trump had a hot mic moment with Prabowo a couple of weeks ago, but the press missed all the fun because they were too interested in talking about Idiot Eric to listen to the rest. I had my ears tuned, so I have a fair idea what was really happening. Trump was lining his pockets directly against US interests.

That's why I like Trump alive, greedy, traitorous, and stupid, and preferably in for a third term as dictator.

We alread know Trump has chronic venous insufficiency, so there's a better than average chance he will have heart complications as well.
Sadly - yes, I mean that - we have a fair chance of reading some pretty nasty obituaries with him as the subject in the next couple of years.
I think Trump is great. Biden started the destruction of the Dollar when he stole Russia's money, but Trump is making a pig's ear of everything America rules with. In defunding USAID, he dismantled a lot of the CIA's network all over the word, and that's just the tip of his disastrous iceberg. China is taking full advantage of Trump's idiocy - as Trump fills his wallet with dodgy deals, China is steadily taking trade away from the 'wizard of Oz' Dollar. Unlike Baum's mighty Oz, the Dollar held great power, but it's rapidly sinking to toilet paper value as Trump makes the world hate the US more than it ever did.
Trump had a hot mic moment with Prabowo a couple of weeks ago, but the press missed all the fun because they were too interested in talking about Idiot Eric to listen to the rest. I had my ears tuned, so I have a fair idea what was really happening. Trump was lining his pockets directly against US interests.
That's why I like Trump alive, greedy, traitorous, and stupid, and preferably in for a third term as dictator. - @Fred

I don't like him because of the instability he causes.  He's just all over the place.  No-one likes uncertainty especially around here.  I did see him engaged about Eric Trump at the summit but I didn't listen to any dialogue.  It's a long way from here to Asia.

I do tend to agree about China trade, they are professionally organised enough to just move to different markets.  It's a no-brainer and the autocratic rule means the population have to lump it for the greater good of China. 

I think Trump and Co misunderstand how these things work.  It's a bit like Brexit, the country left and the remaining members just carried on without the UK.   They regret the UK leaving but they just get on with it anyway.  It's like a miserable member of the golf club decided to go.  Oh well, bye, now who wants more tea and crumpets. Just moved on.    How the UK ever thought they'd have any leverage post-Brexit I do not know.  And then it's the same with China.  OK, sure the market has changed but there are a lot of other countries to trade with.   Short term blip on China's path.

I did read about his venous deficiency.   Not unusual but age is a great leveller.  No way he can keep going - he must have some brain issue as he doesn't seem to know which way is up now.  Seems confused sometimes.   

BTW, a few weeks ago, I was with a couple of Americans who are government employees.  We were having dinner and I said my bet was Trump would be dead in 2 years.   I was of course being utterly provocative to see what they'd say.  They were horrified I was "taking bets" on Trump's demise.  They all clammed up.  Hardly surprising as that's the atmosphere.  I don't think they were believers but concerned anyone would know their views.   I wonder if this is the SOP now in the US government - keep stumm.

US has a few carriers and so won't miss a couple. It's also got quite a lot of subs so that's going to overwhelm the PLA pretty sharpish.
- @fluffy2560
4,000 flags to put on 4,000 coffins per sunken carrier.
With 11 carriers to cover the world, 2 is a big loss.
If US subs attack, the Chinese have missiles that can turn Washington and New York into rubble.
The US doesn't attack people who can hit back. They are a coward nation. - @Fred

I'll go with (supposedly) Stalin on this. "1 death a tragedy, 4000 a statistic".

US has a weapons shield.  This might be bluff as things change a lot.  If we hark back to the Star Wars programme and Ronald Raygun (joke)  it broke the Soviet Union even if it was mainly BS as technology.   

Maybe the current Trump China gambit(s) are just an opening play for regime change. 

There will be a clash somewhere eventually.  But I cannot see it being an all out war with ICBMs.  Not right now.   We're a long way from reaching that.

It would be kind of worryingly interesting to see if there was a clash and the US came out the loser, what Donny would do about it?

Wikipedia:

Wikipedia hit me up for a donation.  I gave them 10 EUR equivalent. It's not the first time.

Worth considering if you value that free resource/encyclopaedia.

I don't like him because of the instability he causes. He's just all over the place. No-one likes uncertainty especially around here. I did see him engaged about Eric Trump at the summit but I didn't listen to any dialogue. It's a long way from here to Asia. - @fluffy2560

I like Trump for the same reason. He's going to destroy America, and that's good for the world. That's why I want him to lve on, and preferable become a dictator for a few years.

Asia is a long way from the US and Europe, but the whole point is that Tump will do anything that lines his pockets, not what is good for his country.

Wikipedia:
Wikipedia hit me up for a donation. I gave them 10 EUR equivalent. It's not the first time.

Worth considering if you value that free resource/encyclopaedia. - @fluffy2560

What value?

They have unreliable information that any interested party can write, and that means you have to check everything before you believe it.

They asked me for cash as well, but I know they made $180 million the previous year, so they got sod all.

I'm amazed anyone is foolish enough to give a profitable company money for nothing.

I don't like him because of the instability he causes. He's just all over the place. No-one likes uncertainty especially around here. I did see him engaged about Eric Trump at the summit but I didn't listen to any dialogue. It's a long way from here to Asia. - @fluffy2560
I like Trump for the same reason. He's going to destroy America, and that's good for the world. That's why I want him to lve on, and preferable become a dictator for a few years.
Asia is a long way from the US and Europe, but the whole point is that Tump will do anything that lines his pockets, not what is good for his country. - @Fred

Agree on the last point.

I don't want the USA to be destroyed.  We need to have checks and balances and trade.  But for sure we don't need it run by a dictator.   

I wouldn't be surprised if the entire West Coast separated but that would a long shot as Trump is a bit of a flash in the pan right now. He'll die in the end.  But the damage and divisions he's causing will last generations.  It depends who comes next.   

Maybe there will be a USA Truth and Reconciliation Council to cope with all the divisions.  I often wonder about here - post Orban - if there will be a massive witch hunt.   I could see long running corruption investigations.  I mean running for 10+ years.

Maybe the current Trump China gambit(s) are just an opening play for regime change.

There will be a clash somewhere eventually. But I cannot see it being an all out war with ICBMs. Not right now. We're a long way from reaching that.

It would be kind of worryingly interesting to see if there was a clash and the US came out the loser, what Donny would do about it? - @fluffy2560

China has more BMW dealerships selling more high end cars than any other country in the world.

China has thousands of miles of safe, clean, comfortable high speed rail that's so good, short and medium haul air transport is pointless.

China has clean, safe cities.

China has more electric vehicles than any other country, and they are cheaper than anywhere else in the world.

The US wants regime change because it knows that the only way to make China poor, is to get rid of the best capitalist government in the world.

Do you honestly think for a moment that this is about democracy?

It's down to the supposed communists making America's best capitalists look like some failed corner shop owners.

The US moans about China's close to monopoly on REEs, and China's lead in renewable energy, but that's because China looked to the future rather than engaging in oil wars.

What value?
They have unreliable information that any interested party can write, and that means you have to check everything before you believe it.
They asked me for cash as well, but I know they made $180 million the previous year, so they got sod all.
I'm amazed anyone is foolish enough to give a profitable company money for nothing. - @Fred

It's a foundation and the resource is free - unlike YT or those other scumbags.   

I use Wikipedia a lot for technical information.   I'm OK to give them a small amount.  I'd miss it if it went away.

I also give a small amount each year to a homeless charity plus a couple of others.  I don't see it as foolish to help others.

Do you honestly think for a moment that this is about democracy?
It's down to the supposed communists making America's best capitalists look like some failed corner shop owners.
The US moans about China's close to monopoly on REEs, and China's lead in renewable energy, but that's because China looked to the future rather than engaging in oil wars. - @Fred

I was only asking/musing on questions and scenarios for discourse. 

US believes in a model of middle America.  Mom and Pop middle class etc with own businesses are not rebellious.  I know their policies, I've worked on their stuff.   They usually utterly misunderstand local conditions or belief systems.

What value?
They have unreliable information that any interested party can write, and that means you have to check everything before you believe it.
They asked me for cash as well, but I know they made $180 million the previous year, so they got sod all.
I'm amazed anyone is foolish enough to give a profitable company money for nothing. - @Fred
It's a foundation and the resource is free - unlike YT or those other scumbags.
I use Wikipedia a lot for technical information. I'm OK to give them a small amount. I'd miss it if it went away.

I also give a small amount each year to a homeless charity plus a couple of others. I don't see it as foolish to help others. - @fluffy2560

It seems to be a little silly to give your hard earned cash to a company that makes a 180 million bucks profit.

Still if that's your cup of tea, I'm sure their people will toast you with their champagne.

Wood Mackenzie have what might be an interesting webinar coming up. It will discuss disruptions in the oil market caused by the war in Ukraine,  and who is making the cash from it.

Guess who.

I'll give you a clue. Compare three timelines.

1. NATO expansion to the east
2. Ukrainian internal politics from a year before the CIA led revolution
3. US shale gas production and sales

Then tell me the war in Ukraine is about the evil Putin.

It seems to be a little silly to give your hard earned cash to a company that makes a 180 million bucks profit.
Still if that's your cup of tea, I'm sure their people will toast you with their champagne. - @Fred

Won't make any difference to me financially if I give them 10 EUR. 

And besides, I like Wikipedia and reading stuff on there.

People spend money on hobbies like basket weaving.  Not my bag but each to their own.

Wood Mackenzie have what might be an interesting webinar coming up. It will discuss disruptions in the oil market caused by the war in Ukraine, and who is making the cash from it.
Guess who.
I'll give you a clue. Compare three timelines.

NATO expansion to the east
Ukrainian internal politics from a year before the CIA led revolution
US shale gas production and sales

Then tell me the war in Ukraine is about the evil Putin. - @Fred

Never heard of Wood McKenzie.   You should post a link.

There's a relevant article on the BBC that US Forces are reducing on the Eastern flank (in Romania).   

I don't think it's significant overall but could end up being a sign of the wider malaise.

Directly describes the drawn down in terms of a shift to AP (Asia Pacific).

Never heard of Wood McKenzie. - @fluffy2560

OMG

People spend money on hobbies like basket weaving. Not my bag but each to their own. - @fluffy2560

I spend money on my hobbies as well, but I don't donate to profitable businesses.

There are a few Nigerian princes that could use a couple bob if you have the spare.

Never heard of Wood McKenzie.  - @fluffy2560
OMG
- @Fred

Not my industry so not paying attention to them.

I worked in Oil & Gas EP (Exploration and Production) but I was only there a couple of years.  I also worked peripherally in Mining for a year but never came across that analytics business.  Wasn't relevant as we were technical specialists and we were  doing something else.

People spend money on hobbies like basket weaving. Not my bag but each to their own. - @fluffy2560 I spend money on my hobbies as well, but I don't donate to profitable businesses. There are a few Nigerian princes that could use a couple bob if you have the spare. - @Fred

Strange you mention that, I received a call from fake HMRC (UK: tax office) asking me to pay an emergency tax demand. I gave them your number as apparently you're my financial advisor.

Trump tells military to prepare for 'action' against Islamist militants in Nigeria

Not sure what this story is about. 

It might be linked to Nigeria's refusal to accept random US deportees. 

I cannot see Nigeria falling obviously for this bit of public arm twisting.   They are way too smart for that.

And they've got huge amounts of oil and a large population.   

@fluffy2560

@fluffy2560
- @SimCityAT

100% anti-Trump is illegal?   Like when Donny?

And what does Donny know about aircraft carrier catapults?  I think a lot of people are willing to see Donny try them out.  They can attach one of his bling faux French chairs to it with him in it and then see how he likes the ride with each type of technology.

I've got electric parking brakes and electric power steering in my car and they are so much better than the old cable operated and hydraulic systems.  More reliable, easier to maintain and do the job every time without oil and messing about adjusting them.   I can see only one downside - if the battery is flat, you need a special tool to release the parking brake.

Racism and bigotry are a particular types of stupidity that requires believing a load of old balderdash, commonly because of the hater's own pathetic life is so bad that they need an enemy to blame for their woes. Other racists aquire their idiocy from warped news stories.

The Chinese/North Koreans/non-whites/whites/religion/ect are bad because I read a story about a <favourite group to hate> raping a child.

The white privilege lot are nasty in a really cretaceous way as they think they are fighting  racism by attacking a racial group.

The bright side is that numbskulls of that type have no power beyond moaning in a bar or forum rants.

Powerful racists are an especially dangerous type of fool. Trump, in my most humble of opinions,  is the worst one in the news at the moment,  but there are plenty more out there. True, a lot of them work for Trump, but that doesn't exclude the large number of total nutters with guns that hold very dangerous ideologies.

I have to admit finding some amusement in seeing that drunk driving ICE agent getting arrested by two black cops. The racism flowed from his mouth whilst trying to avoid arrest for being smashed out of his brain whilst driving with his kids in the card.

Mid-level racists like that drunk are empowered by top-tier racists like Trump.

Powerful racists are an especially dangerous type of fool. Trump, in my most humble of opinions, is the worst one in the news at the moment, but there are plenty more out there. True, a lot of them work for Trump, but that doesn't exclude the large number of total nutters with guns that hold very dangerous ideologies.I have to admit finding some amusement in seeing that drunk driving ICE agent getting arrested by two black cops. The racism flowed from his mouth whilst trying to avoid arrest for being smashed out of his brain whilst driving with his kids in the card.Mid-level racists like that drunk are empowered by top-tier racists like Trump. - @Fred

I don't think Trump's particularly and inherently racist.  He's just out for himself and prepared to go along with anything which advances his personal position, even racism.  He'd literally sell anyone out for any reason.    I do have opprobrium for his behaviour and his looney rhetoric.  The looney stuff is part of his Finkelstein schtick intended to divert plus stir up indignation of the MAGA base.  I'm currently thinking if anything (currently) is going to end his reign it's probably Epstein.  There's a lot of splits in the GOP developing over that amongst the noise like the shutdown.     

Democrats had a good 24h with two governors elected (swinging against Trump) and of course the headline news of Mamdani's election as mayor of NYC. Pundits say this is a precursor to the mid-terms.

Mamdani reminds me of the election of Sadiq Khan in London.  He was an outside candidate.

Prediction is they will get on well together.  Two Muslim politicians of Asian origins.  I would think there's a meeting being arranged quickly as there will be a lot to share from each other. 

In the wider context, we'll see what DJT has to say on it.

@fluffy2560

@fluffy2560
- @SimCityAT

What does that mean?