International Relations

Now for a prediction.

The US will lose support over the next few years, especially financial support in the form of countries holding Bonds and US Dollar holdings.

They will have done it to themselves, but blame China. Those who read the news will have noticed China and Japan are selling off their stake in the US.

This will accelerate over the next three years, causing the US economy to wither, in turn forcing their massive military spend to fall. We are already seeing US forces leave a variety of countries, including Syria and, if the rumours have any truth in them, South Korea. 

Trump has, possibly unknowingly, seriously damaged the US world spy network. As the US is forced to withdraw, we will see more and more countries challenging the US, even in small, local wars. In any case, the US will be forced to withdraw back to US territory, and its terrible economy will likely cause a civil war.

This brings us to Israel. Their evil government has been getting away with war crimes for years because it has the US to support it. The damaged US economy will no longer allow the massive armaments giveaway we have watched since the 1970s, so Israel will weaken over time.  Israel, as it loses its military advantage, will face attacks from all fronts, likely ending that country’s existence. Israeli governments tend to be extremist, so there’s a fair chance they will use their nuclear weapons. The backlash will be so massive, I predict a holocaust that will make Hitler’s version look like a Sunday afternoon fender bender in a car park.  Jews, regardless of guilt as part of the Israeli government/IDF, will be hunted down, even in the US. There are around 18 million Jews in the world today - about the same as the population of Osaka - I see 15 million being killed either as a result of war, or new, ultra right governments and vigilantes murdering them.

Pakistan might well supply nuclear weapons to the Arab side, and that will be the end of a habitable middle east for a long time. That will ramp up oil prices in a way nobody has ever seen.  Around a third of world production is from the middle east, and much of that will be lost.

China will be badly damaged by the economic fallout, but not as badly as others. The Chinese will use their lead in renewable tech to buffer the oil price rises we will see when Israel collapses and takes half of the region with it.

Russia, free of the US, will supply oil to replace the lost production from the middle east, but prices will be extremely high. That will finish off the EU as the ultra right gain massive support as a backlash to middle east refugees flooding Europe. The EU is trying to rid itself of Chinese made solar. Around 95% of EU solar is Chinese, but they are trying to get rid of that - This will be a massive mistake that will, with price hikes in Russian oil, finish off the EU as a political entity.

Countries such as the UK that blindly follow the US (and hold lots of US debt) are likely to be dragged down, so we are likely to see mass unemployment, homelessness, and either an extremist government elected, or a coup.  Either way, a lot of people will die, and the UK will lose whatever quantum of influence it has left.

Pretty much the whole of sub-saharan Africa and South America will become Chinese belt and road partners. Taiwan, unable to support itself after the US collapse, will vote to become part of China. Countries like the Philippines will be left to hang out to dry by the US, and will also join China’s rapidly expanding trading group.  European countries, once they manage to sort out their political issues, will also be forced to join China as major customers. They won’t have any choice as oil and gas prices will be impossible to sustain.

Apart from local wars, the world armaments economy (mostly American) will be destroyed, so peace will become the norm.

Latest on the NGO law:

Hungary delays vote on 'transparency law' targeting foreign-funded NGOs and media until autumn

Presumably delayed due to any by-elections, early campaigning for 2026 national elections and to give time to turn the polls around.  Or it's something to do with gathering international concern.

Japan's economy is shrinking, and Trump tariffs are making their problems worse.

Japan is dumping US treasuries and Dollar holdings.

What made sense in the 70s is no longer true in today's world.

As they (and others) dump, the cost of borrowing for the US goes up and up.

Perhaps the few years I mentioned in my above posts might turn into the fastest decline of an empire the world has ever seen.

https://www.expat.com/en/forum/north-am … tries.html

Trump's new, and somewhat racist, travel  bans will not really do  much to the US, or will it?

We are talking about small number of people, but many from mineral rich countries that China will want to court.

I have a feeling that Trump is a big friend to China. The only question is,does he realise?

US:

I'm noting increasing verbiage from Musk about Trump's agenda, notably the "Big Beautiful Bill" and its massive increase in debt.   Looks like Senators could push back on that.   The US may become bankrupt if Trump keeps doing what he's doing. Meanwhile, Trump is pushing the Fed Chairman to reduce interest rates.  Trump doesn't have any power to force the Fed to do that.   So, rudely, he rubbishes him in the press. He's the one who appointed Powell as Chairman. Reducing interest rates is probably being pushed to encourage spending. Wanton or otherwise.

Will Musk's rejection of the bill mean anything at all.  He bankrolled Trump into office, will he bankroll him out of office?  Would that be a step too far for Musk?   With hardly any majority, it's all to play for and a big push by Musk could derail it all. 

Meanwhile, I note push back in the justice system with Federal judges rejecting some of the actions taken and demanding reversals - notably on the due process front.  One deportee has been brought back from Guatemala and the ones in Djibouti seem to have disappeared but could well be on the way back to the US.   Who knows? There's already been a ruling I think on the El Salvador deportees being brought back.  If true, that's a major loss for Trump and Co.

Current administration over there seems to be crashing into one legal calamity after another.

Is this New York in three years?

And yet more on the LGBT laws, this time from Brussels:

Hungary's LGBTQ+ law breaches EU regulation, top court advocate says

The CJEU will plod on slowly to the inevitable conclusion post the Advocate General's opinion.

Meanwhile, OV's "Street Fighters" (cf. Black Shirts) will be there probably to intimidate people on 28 June. 

Russian ambassador partly blames UK for Ukrainian drone attack

Mr Kelin pointed the finger at the UK when he said Ukraine must have had assistance in the weekend's drone attacks.

Russian ambassador partly blames UK for Ukrainian drone attack
Mr Kelin pointed the finger at the UK when he said Ukraine must have had assistance in the weekend's drone attacks. - @SimCityAT

Yes, and my uncle's the Pope.

If they want to use propaganda, they should try and at least be professional about it.

The Ukrainians hardly need Western help it seems.  They are rapidly becoming completely independent in capabilities.

US:

I previously gave Trump about 4 months before it all falls apart.  My schadenfreude meter was oscillating at higher numbers earlier this evening.

It looks like they're on schedule with Elon now saying Trump is in the Epstein files.

Elon Musk claims Donald Trump is mentioned in Epstein Files in X post

I wonder if Musk has finally had an epiphany about what government is actually like.  How far can the sniping go?  Any ex-civil servant could have told Musk that the behaviour of his boss is not the way things are done.  But will Musk bring Trump down?  Quite possibly.  He's got the financial muscle to derail the finance bill.

"That's another fine mess you got me into Stanley"

Elon Musk                          Donald Trump

Update: You know, I just checked the timeline on this.  Really Elon, if you're in a hole stop digging.  Plot your revenge silently and tactically.  Don't let it play out in public.  And leverage your assets - financial or otherwise.   

The Ukrainians hardly need Western help it seems. They are rapidly becoming completely independent in capabilities. - @fluffy2560

That, if it wasn't uninformed rubbish that ignores the fact the the UK government is advertising massive military assistance for Ukraine, would be good news.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati … %20support

Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine poses a serious threat to UK prosperity and security. We are proud to be a leading partner in providing vital support to Ukraine.

In total, the UK has committed £18 billion for Ukraine:

£13 billion in military support (including our £2.26 billion ERA Loan contribution)

Russia is, as the UK government, on a UK government website, admits, absolutely correct when it says the UK is supplying arms and assistance to the illegal coup government of Ukraine

Quite why you lie by omission when your lie is so easy to bust is a mystery, but there you have it.

As for your extremely inaccurate claim that Ukraine is militarily independent, the UK should listen to the two great military minds above and stop all arms supplies immediately.

The saved money can be spent on the overstretched NHS and free winter fuel for pensioners.

"That's another fine lie you failed with"                                  S                                                                                   F                                                                                                 

I always look at it this way, if you have to lie in order to make your point, there is no advantage in listening to you.

Posters have to be aware of the truth, in this case that the UK government is risking war by supplying weapons to Ukraine instead of looking after its pensioners.

Maybe liars would argue that pensioners will get warm if a nuke lands in their city. That is at about the same level of BS as claiming the UK government aren't making sacks full of cash by selling weapons.

It's a profit thing, not a political one.

EDIT FOR POSSIBLE CORRECTION

I, whilst contemplating the terrible situation in Ukraine, decided saying the other posters are liars might be a little harsh.

It's very possible they are stunningly uniformed, or perhaps they have low IQ brains that simply can't understand the written word. Mister Dunning and Mister Kruger might have a pair of case studies.

US:

Hidden in the Trump finance bill are some really serious things like this one:

India leads in remittances - but Trump's tax could deal a blow

and

What is the ‘revenge tax’ in the US tax bill?

That is really serious stuff for many.  It'll lead to cash becoming king again and informal channels will jump in popularity.  Counter productive for anti-terrorist financing.  It's amazing that it would apply to diplomatic personnel too. 

There's a lot of other stuff in the US finance bill which would have a direct impact on international tax affairs - Section 899.   It's been dubbed the "Revenge Tax".   

Meanwhile, in the Donald and Elon spat, one has to wonder if Musk knew he was being taken for a mug by the ultimate user, the Teflon Don.  And what will happen to DOGE personnel?  Will they all be cleared out?  Trump cannot have any disloyal minions (Musk acolytes) in his camp.  They'll have to go - my prediction.   So DOGE just withers on the vine and many US departments are left in disarray?

UK:

And elsewhere.....UK also has an unofficial UK DOGE at the local government level but that's falling apart at the seams with recent resignations of the Reform chairman and their UK DOGE leader.   At least it only lasted a few weeks and they didn't do any damage (I assume).

A Russian official said the American billionaire Elon Musk could be offered political asylum in Russia over his fierce dispute with U.S. President Donald Trump

Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, made the comments to Russian state news outlet TASS.

"I think that Musk has a completely different game, [so] he will not need any political asylum, although if he did, Russia, of course, could provide it," Novikov said, in remarks translated from Russian.

Musk and Trump, ostensibly political allies over cuts to federal spending, publicly clashed on June 5 in a series of exchanges across social media and in comments to reporters.

The origin of the dispute is the impact Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill has on U.S. public debt.

Starmer will be breathing a sigh of relief after clinching shock victory over SNP and Reform UK

Labour are power hungry and have, for a long time, set their sights on forming the next Scottish government.

A Russian official said the American billionaire Elon Musk could be offered political asylum in Russia over his fierce dispute with U.S. President Donald TrumpDmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, made the comments to Russian state news outlet TASS."I think that Musk has a completely different game, [so] he will not need any political asylum, although if he did, Russia, of course, could provide it," Novikov said, in remarks translated from Russian.Musk and Trump, ostensibly political allies over cuts to federal spending, publicly clashed on June 5 in a series of exchanges across social media and in comments to reporters.The origin of the dispute is the impact Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill has on U.S. public debt. - @SimCityAT

Haha, Russians' usual crass opportunist comments.  Musk is never going to go to Russia but some US politician said Musk should be deported!  Yeah, right, like that'll happen.  And deport where? Canada? UK? South Africa?  😋

He can come to the UK (or anywhere in Europe) and he'll see how people should behave in a mostly polite and mostly civilised society.

If I was Musk, I'd be creating a unit to plan domination and removal of Trump.  Put in say $50M and he could bring him down through a concerted campaign.  Musk wants Vance in charge which is unlikely as a scenario unless Trump drops dead.  Of course Musk can never be President so he needs a Yes man like Shady Vance.

Apparently Musk and Trump's phone call is cancelled.  Maybe it was never going to happen and was an invention.

And Tesla is down 14%.  Musk is having his Gerald Ratner moment. 

It's hard to say what possessed him to go off and involve himself in government and particularly Trump.   Just crap.  He should have listened to his strategists.  If he has any.

The Schadenfreude meter is buzzing!

Starmer will be breathing a sigh of relief after clinching shock victory over SNP and Reform UK
Labour are power hungry and have, for a long time, set their sights on forming the next Scottish government. - @SimCityAT

SNP have been screwed for a long time.   I think Labour has a chance on that.  SNP has fallen apart.  Conservatives will never be in power there.   That's been the case for years.

It's not good to have mega majorities as it restricts ability of opposition parties holding the incumbents to account.

He can come to the UK (or anywhere in Europe) and he'll see how people should behave in a mostly polite and mostly civilised society. - @fluffy2560

I love civilised Britain. Well, drug puddled idiot Britain that isn't worth visiting for any reason.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-lwC3cX5 … 5jaGVzdGVy

US:

The Economist (behind paywall ) has published a diagnosis on the Musk-Trump spat.

One thing which is kind of interesting and for deviousness takes the biscuit.

Apparently Trump's profits from his scam cum meme coin and variously other grifting is around $2.5B.

So, despite Musk's bank rolling Trump's campaign, he's walking away with nothing much and has damaged his reputation perhaps beyond repair.   In other words, Trump has scammed Musk out of potentially $250M.  The Trump clan now has sufficient cash to bank roll their own campaigns.  Looks like an ultimate scam.  Trump won, and Musk paid for it and like others, got shafted for knowing and being involved with the Orange one.

Musk's Dad was on LBC being interviewed.  From what Musk Senior was saying, and reading between the lines, it looks like Musk Junior could be on the verge of a mental breakdown.   Apparently he needs a holiday.  Possibly lost perspective and is left with the ignominy of being had.  That must play hard on Musk's ego.  It could be he may not have enough mental gas in the tank to mount any kind of revenge - yet.  He has the advantage Trump has limited time left and Musk has years to go.  Last man standing perhaps?

Another aspect is rehabilitation.  Could Musk ever come back from this?  It's really unclear. Bill Gates used to be known as Darth Vader.  But he's come back through his support for health care in Africa and support for malaria vaccine research.  Good works help a lot.  And visiting psychoanalysts.

An awful lot of people are never going to forgive Musk and his naivety thinking government is anything like being CEO of a company.  He must have been very badly advised.

BTW, I heard an amusing discussion about Star Wars.  If you haven't seen the first 3 episodes of the movies, when you get to the one where Luke Skywalker is battling it out with Darth Vader, it could be interpreted as a young punk taking on an elderly man with breathing difficulties.  I found that quite funny.   I am not sure - yet - if there's anything analogous for Musk/Trump and Skywalker/Darth Vader.

@fluffy2560

None of them are well

.

. - @SimCityAT

Maybe it'll become known as a BallsUp room in the near future.

What a waste of money!  Typical kitsch of the Teflon Don.  All glitter and no taste.

@fluffy2560
None of them are well - @SimCityAT

I am not sure about that.

Musk I might classify as unwell, given that I think he's been mugged and isn't able right now to cope with failure. 

Donny I feel is actually the spawn of Satan with no chance of rehabilitation.   

At the risk of invoking Godwin's law, I am sure Donny would be - like a Nazi at Nuremberg - going up the scaffold and complaining, what did I do wrong?  Gaddafi also had the same idea - didn't see he'd done anything wrong as he was dragged out of a sewer pipe.  And the Ceaușescus were patronising their prosecutors before they were taken outside and gunned down.   It only dawned on them how serious (aka final) it was at the last minute.  It never ends well for fascist dictators.   They don't often die of old age in their beds.

Makes you wonder also about Putin.  I saw an article which said they might win in Ukraine by something like year 2150 when they'd finally run out of manpower throwing themselves into the meat grinder.   Even Putin cannot last that long.  Medvedev is a complete drunk and all the rest are incapable toadies.  Perhaps when Putin has gone, it will finally be over.

California "riots":

Cross posting.

There's an informative interview with Governor Newsum on MSNBC. 

He might run for President 2028. 

I wondered if this might give successionist movements in California a boost.   California has had plenty of these over the years.  Perhaps Trump will push it over the edge and we'll see the chance of new country of California emerging.   It'd be an interesting one because California is  a massive economy.   I did read up that some successionist groups have admiration for the SNP in Scotland or even Brexit. I cannot see it myself as Trump has a limited lifespan (literally).

There's late news that they might try and arrest Newsum and LA Mayor Bass.   Now that'll be a test of resolve but it seems to be just BS.   No grounds for that.

I am also wondering if the National Guard likes being in this situation.  They are after all, local people, policing their neighbours and friends.  And as for the Marines, that's more nonsense.   Plenty of Marines are going to be uncomfortable for the same reasons as the National Guard.

Reports say Trump wants to have this fight and if it gets to SCOTUS asap, one wonders if they'll roll over as they always seem to do when it comes to Trump.   

California- land of dreams, or idiotic US left wing nightmare?

1. High crime, especially retail theft is a major reason businesses are leaving the area. Retail businesses are escaping the place in droves.
2. High taxes and red tape are making other businesses leave.
3. The woke school system is driving parents away. The Grading for Equity' plan lets seriously dumbo kids pass at 41%. Sounds great for thick kids, but then you realise a pass is worthless. Kids that worked hard have worthless certificates because any thicko can get through.
4. Mass illegal immigration crime is causing a lot of problems, especially as the better educated sections of the population are moving away
5. Literally millions of people have fled the state because of the above. It costs too much to live in a high crime area where your kids get a rubbish education, and you get taxed at crazy rates for the privilege.
6. 
   

The reply to getting rid of criminals is riots and looting.

Trump might actually have a valid point on this occasion.

USA (and California in particular:

I've been looking into Governor Newsum's claim that Trump violated Title 10 of the USC § 12406.

The text of that paragraph is (my highlighting):

---

10 U.S. Code § 12406 - National Guard in Federal service: call

Whenever—

(1) the United States, or any of the Commonwealths or possessions, is invaded or is in danger of invasion by a foreign nation;

(2) there is a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States; or

(3) the President is unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States;

the President may call into Federal service members and units of the National Guard of any Statein such numbers as he considers necessary to repel the invasion, suppress the rebellion, or execute those laws. Orders for these purposes shall be issued through the governors of the States or, in the case of the District of Columbia, through the commanding general of the National Guard of the District of Columbia.

---

So it looks like Trump didn't ask the Governor and therefore violated this clause and no-one knows the definition of a rebellion.   I suppose, CA will find a Fed judge sympathetic and get that judge to issue an injunction requiring the National Guard and Marines to go back home. 

Of course, Trump will appeal it and try to drag it up to SCOTUS.   It's hard to see how SCOTUS justices can roll over and let Trump tickle their tummies on that one as it's as plain as day in the wording.   He knows of course he can rely on Alito and Thomas  and probably Roberts to do his bidding.  But the others?  Not so sure. 

And will Trump ever be punished.  Probably not.  Musk apparently agrees with Trump on sending in the troops.  The guy is supposed to be super clever but he's clearly just another oxymoron like his ideas for Government Efficiency.  In one year, we'll be saying Elon who?

Meanwhile, the Posse Comitatus Act restricts the Marines etc from acting as law enforcement.  Sounds like Trump hasn't got a leg to stand on.   His speech at Fort Bragg was disgraceful.   

California: Fed judge Breyer (younger brother of former SCOTUS judge), ruled against Trump and returned control of the National Guard to the CA Governor.  It'll go to appeal immediately and pointlessly, it'll probably go to SCOTUS.  At least 3 of them are going to roll over, almost guaranteed - Alito, Thomas and Roberts - but perhaps it'll be a majority in favour of the States as it's hard to see the others direction.  Maybe this is the actual showdown Trump always wanted on his power.   And what will the judiciary do even if Trump ignores them?

Israel/Iran:   Despite Israel attacking Iran, it looks like Iran doesn't have the wherewithal to retaliate signficantly.  Iran launched 200 drones back at Israel but if they are the Shahed types, they will be destroyed outside of Israel borders.  Trump says they didn't help Israel.  That's ludicrous.  One or another they must have provided some support.  They must have known even vaguely (latest reports are that they knew).   What were the point of US talks with Iran?    Does it mean anything for us in Europe?  Nothing really, it'll fizzle out and Iran will continue.  Its bunkers are very deep and likely untouched.  Business as usual and still Netanyahu remains out of jail and in power which is probably the point - keep continuous war to keep in power.   If Iran finally does get a bomb, maybe it escalates even further but just to say the obvious, Israel is tiny, one bomb would take it out completely.  And Russia with Iran?  Nothing will happen at all except bluster.  And the USA will always support Israel.   

Israel/Iran: Despite Israel attacking Iran, it looks like Iran doesn't have the wherewithal to retaliate signficantly. Iran launched 200 drones back at Israel but if they are the Shahed types, they will be destroyed outside of Israel borders. - @fluffy2560

Once again, Israel has attacked just in case a country might attack it.  In this case, it looks like Israel has murdered a number of random civilians in thier homes as part of their attempts to murder civilian scientists.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czr85lpd7kyo

We now have independent evidence that shows Israel deliberately murdered Iranian civilians.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czr85lpd7kyo

Israel/Iran:

More fighting going on.   

There's an article in the Economist which discusses what Netanyahu wants from Iran and that apparently (and obviously) is regime change.  He said he wants the Iranians to rise up but the opposition is fragmented.   Not going to happen on any workable timescale.  Not without the inevitability of the US being drawn more directly into the fighting.  US has warships being directed there - presumably to protect shipping.   

There will be some fall out with Russia over their allies being in conflict but the Russians have no resources to offer.  Maybe it's a good distraction for Putin.   It won't affect the drone deliveries and launches on Ukraine as now Russia makes and assembles the Shaheed drones itself. 

Trump's Iranian talks with his buddy Witkoff in Oman taking place in the coming days seem to be utterly pointless.  Iran is unlikely to turn up.  Netanyahu has trumped Trump safe in the knowledge the US will not be able to walk away.   Trump once again demonstrates his ineptitude.

And Gaza?  Off the news agenda, just as Netanyahu probably wanted. Ukraine? Not even mentioned in the media.

Biggest fall out for us here in HU will be the oil price increasing.  We always suffer with price rises.  And OV cannot do anything about it.  Not looking good there Viktor.

Israel has started yet another conflict. I hope oil prices shoot up so the idiot west will realise the cost of supporting the Israeli government's murder spree.

However, when Iran has replied to Israeli murders in the past, their rockets have caused little serious damage, but this time we see the weeping and moaning Israelis complaining about how much destruction they're suffering.

Firstly, tough luck - vote your idiot government out - they started the exchange, so blame them.

Regime change in Israel - NOW!

More importantly, why the change?

Nothing, nothing, nothing, then massive damage.

One has to wonder why.

This is pure speculation, but I wonder if the IDF are lettting the missiles land in order to create a reason for a greater war.

I saw an unconfirmed report that Iran had shot down a couple of IDF aircraft and captured the pilots.

If true, I suppose they will be a prisoner swap at some point in the future.

USA:

Suspect in ‘politically motivated assassination’ of Minnesota Democratic House leader identified, officials say

Assassinations and attempts on politicians are not that unusual as we all know.

It's unclear what the actual motivation was for this shooting.

I guess the perp is on the run and intent on not being captured alive.   He seems to have been well prepared so must have had an escape plan even though he left his vehicle at the scene.

Israel/Iran:

Trump signals 'possible' US involvement in Iran conflict

"President Donald Trump told ABC News that "it's possible we could get involved" in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Trump nevertheless stressed that Washington was not "at this moment" involved.  The US president added that he would be "open" to mediation by Russian President Vladimir Putin.   "He is ready. He called me about it. We had a long talk about it, " ABC News quoted him as saying.

US involved? No s**t Sherlock.

Trump out does his previous delusions and suggests mediation by Putin?    How can Trump remotely believe that  that there's any possibility a warmonger like Putin can negotiate peace with anyone?

Putin surely WANTS war to go on with Iran and Israel.  It means he's got a free hand in Ukraine and no-one will be talking about it and war helps Netanyahu destroy Gaza.  It's all win-win for the combatants and their friends.  They are all complicit.

Update: The G7 starts today in Alberta, Canada.  I reckon Trump is going to be very isolated at that summit.  I cannot see NATO allies being that interested in overtly supporting the US militarily if it's attacked by Iran in the region.  Trump has or is burning all his bridges with the USA's natural allies.   If there was a quid pro quo, perhaps it'll be over Ukraine which is still being battered while all attention is on the Middle East.  Now the Israelis and Iranians know what it's like in Ukraine.  Surely that must be reflected up to the Clown in Chief.

For the first time since Russia's attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is expected in Vienna today. There should be meetings with top politicians. The police have set up a roadblock for the Vienna Heldenplatz and the Volksgarten. The House of History and the reading rooms of the National Library remain closed.

For the first time since Russia's attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is expected in Vienna today. There should be meetings with top politicians. The police have set up a roadblock for the Vienna Heldenplatz and the Volksgarten. The House of History and the reading rooms of the National Library remain closed. - @SimCityAT

I think I'd be in awe of the guy if I met him.

I don't know how he's managed to survive this stress never mind the numerous attempts on his life by Putin and Co.  I wonder if Putin's spies carry cans of Novichok and a portable window to push him out of.

People make comparisons about Churchill and Zelensky.    Churchill led during WW2 but couldn't go on once it was over.  When there is peace, Zelensky should retire gracefully.  He'll be feted as a hero everywhere.  Go out on a positive note.

In the meantime, he's the right bloke for the job.   And he's enroute to Canada for the G7.

BTW, the G7 and Trump's behaviour is nudging my schadenfreude meter.   He's going more all in domestically. I think he's over estimated his power on Israel and Iran.  He hasn't got a chance.  I reckon Netanyahu will try and kill the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the coming days. Why not?  He knows the USA has got his back regardless and Trump is well and truly over a barrel.  So much for withdrawing from world affairs (and wars).

Update:  Watched The Economist presentation/round table on Iran, Israel and the Middle East (subscriber only).  Upshot is that if the Israelis are unable to destroy the main enrichment site, the USA will probably do it for them using their giant bunker buster bombs.   With Iran effectively destroyed or at least hobbled for years, the entire Middle East will be remade.   It looks like it's not over until it's over.   USA (aka Trump) will have annoyed his MAGA base.  Meh, we'll see.

(cross posting from Absolutely Anything Else)

USA/Iran/Israel:

Here's my prediction - I reckon Trump left the G7 because the USA is going to enter the war with the bunker buster bombs to finish Iran once and for all.  And Israel is going to kill the Supreme Leader. No-one West of Iran is going to be crying over it.   There will be massive chaos afterwards.   Interesting Iran turned out to be a paper tiger.

Bibi seems to be replicating the same strategy in Iran as he did decapitating Hezbollah and Hamas.  Destroy the leadership. 

Or Trump is so bound up in his own self-importance, he cannot take anyone disagreeing with him.  His approval rating has apparently plummeted and no-one liked his birthday parade.   It could all implode by the middle of the year.   The country cannot continue to be run by clowns with no experience.   It's also interesting that this is a real MAGA crisis.

But Trump doesn't mind so much - he's launching his own mobile network at double the price of anyone else's.  And that phone has to be made in China.  There's no way it's a US made phone.  Heights of hypocrisy.  He's apparently made something like $2B conning people with his crypto, bibles and watches.  Unbelievable.

BTW, has anyone noticed the increase in US military helicopters flying over Budapest?  We see one a day now.  They start near Szolnok (at the airbase there), turnaround over our village and go away to the East or North.  They land next to the Duna not far from the Aquapark.  Maybe a general doing their shopping or something else is afoot.

Iran - A quick history

The country was a democracy until the US and UK removed the legitimately elected government in order to get oil rights.

The US installed a massive murdering dictator. Desperate, the Iranian people manged to get rid of the Shah.

They welcomed the new religious leadership as saviours from the US run killer Shah.

The US doesn't like the outcome of their meddling.

Israel has bombed Iran on many occasions, and murdered Iranian civilians by assassination.

Regardless of opinions, the facts show the UK and US caused the chain of events.

If you don't like the above, tear up history books and cry in a corner.... but be labelled as an idiot.

Never notice helicopters here in the heart of the city, just chemtrails.

Maybe building a shelter is not a bad idea if you want to live in a Mad Max post war world.

Not for me, would not mind going out in a flash of light.

It still does

not hurt to stock up on supplies for the short term.

Perhaps stocking up might be meant for someone else to find the stash? Never know we may be long gone but a stranger will praise us for stocking up so they can survive another day.

One can go too far though with storing goods.

My cousin who passed a few years ago was living with his sister and her husband for awhile. He took over half her home and when she had the loony bin come collect him for treatment, she found he had floor to ceiling cans of food in one of the bedrooms. Only a narrow walkway between each row of cans.

Not sure what she did with it all, probably gave it to a church or food charity.

My eldest sisters FIL had his entire 2 car garage stacked with cans; What a mess they had after he died getting rid of all the rusty old outdated cans of food.

He had so much he no longer could handle rotating the goods and them  going bad.

Really nice old guy though, just a bit off.

The mother of my ex BIL was off too. She would not go outside unless she checked her horoscope for the day!

Hard to believe that nutty couple had 2 smart sons , one was a chemist and the other a dentist.

Not so sure Iran is a paper tiger, they may surprise us all.

I worked with many people from Iran and they are just like anyone else, funny, smart and care about life. We only hear about the nutters just like most of the world thinks all Americans are gun crazy and red necks, not true, not really, at least we never used to be that way.

Never notice helicopters here in the heart of the city, just chemtrails.Maybe building a shelter is not a bad idea if you want to live in a Mad Max post war world.Not for me, would not mind going out in a flash of light.It still does not hurt to stock up on supplies for the short term.Perhaps stocking up might be meant for someone else to find the stash? Never know we may be long gone but a stranger will praise us for stocking up so they can survive another day.One can go too far though with storing goods.My cousin who passed a few years ago was living with his sister and her husband for awhile. He took over half her home and when she had the loony bin come collect him for treatment, she found he had floor to ceiling cans of food in one of the bedrooms. Only a narrow walkway between each row of cans.Not sure what she did with it all, probably gave it to a church or food charity.My eldest sisters FIL had his entire 2 car garage stacked with cans; What a mess they had after he died getting rid of all the rusty old outdated cans of food.He had so much he no longer could handle rotating the goods and them going bad.Really nice old guy though, just a bit off.The mother of my ex BIL was off too. She would not go outside unless she checked her horoscope for the day!Hard to believe that nutty couple had 2 smart sons , one was a chemist and the other a dentist.Not so sure Iran is a paper tiger, they may surprise us all.I worked with many people from Iran and they are just like anyone else, funny, smart and care about life. We only hear about the nutters just like most of the world thinks all Americans are gun crazy and red necks, not true, not really, at least we never used to be that way. - @Marilyn Tassy

The HU army has a place next to the Duna, opposite the landing zone.  I can see it on the map so it might be routine training or transport between bases.  Faster than driving.  But definitely US military helicopters.  I don't think Hungary has that type of aircraft.  If they had, they'd probably only have money for one or half of one and maybe only a couple of people capable of flying one.  I don't think the HU army could fight its way out of a paper bag.

I do agree, the Iranian people will be fine themselves, it's their leaders that suck big time.  But the people don't have any mechanism to vote them out.  It's one of those worst of the worst kinds of dictatorship.   One has to wonder, in 2025, what the hell they were thinking.

From the perspective of a non-US citizen, the gun thing will always get brought up when people discuss the USA.  We obviously do not have weaponry like that available to any vaguely sane person.  And reaching for a gun to settle disputes seems to be a way of life.  I wonder how anyone leaves their homes to do anything.   Perhaps they don't and that's what all the hoarding is about.  Prepping for the Mad Max days as you say.   Still, I go back to what I said, professionals say get out, at any cost, just leave.  If the s**t hits the fan, simply get as far away as you can.

In that respect the Iranian population reaction to leave Tehran is totally right.  DW has some interviews with Iranians and many are sticking put.  No cash to leave and no desire to leave their businesses.   Some people interviewed at the Turkish border still committed and defending the regime.  Think again fellas.

If the USA does get embroiled in Iran, let's hope it doesn't do what it did before with Iraq and let it descend into mayhem. 

They seem to be engaging in Syria possibly to the right level but even that's going a bit Islamist - clothing restrictions are being introduced.  Having worked in Syria during Assad's regime, it was definitely secular and tolerant back then (obviously not politically).  I liked the place and the people.  They were all pretty smart and highly educated - many internationally.   Those are aspects they should keep. 

It could be a really rich and prosperous modern country.   Iran too.

Meanwhile the Russia continues to kill people in Ukraine and Trump does nothing.  Pathetic.