How Worried Are You Coronavirus?

Indices :
THIGV :
Indices :

I was in Vietnam just after the Americans pulled out, had a spell of 11 years in rural areas ....

So based on that statement, you were in Vietnam from maybe 1974 to 1985.  This would place you in the country squarely during the premiership of Le Duan who died in 1986.   As this was a period of forced collectivization in the countryside, and an actual decline in personal income from the war years, how did an Englishman survive?  You certainly were not teaching ESL. It was also a period when many of the same people that you can see walking the streets today were in reeducation camps.  I realize that Vietnam was theoretically open to citizens of countries like the UK that had declined to participate in the war but I am wondering if you could walk the streets freely.

There was food rationing, and coupons were required to purchase food.  As a foreigner, how did you get ration coupons?  (My wife has told me that she made extra money as a teen smuggling refined sugar from Ben Tre to Tien Giang Province as even that much trade was illegal.  This was to assist her family even though her father was fully employed as a Party official.)  Again, as an Englishman, how did you keep body and mind together during that time, especially living in the countryside.

It was not an easy time and one I see no reason to go into apart from saying I was mainly involved in infrastructure projects. I had a university degree in mechanical engineering obtained by the time I was 22. My skills were especially useful during that period and rarely travelled without escort. The atrocities I witnesses on a daily basis are best left buried.

My mate is going to  write a book about Vietnam in that period. He would be interested in seeing your photos,documentation and stories about your time spent here as an engineer.

Apart from the OP's somewhat suspicious name, I'm sick of all the paranoia surrounding this.
Yes, it's serious, but even the slightest hint someone might be infected and everyone runs around like headless chickens.
I just got an email some some total moron at my kids' school telling how all kids with a slightly high temperature or any cold symptoms will be sent home.
Pity about half the school has a cold at the moment, but they don't seem to have taken that into account.
The press had advertising money to consider so I understand why they want to produce scare stories, but quite why people want to do it on forums is a little harder to understand.

BRING OUT YOU DEAD

https://youtu.be/GU0d8kpybVg

Fred :

Apart from the OP's somewhat suspicious name, I'm sick of all the paranoia surrounding this.
Yes, it's serious, but even the slightest hint someone might be infected and everyone runs around like headless chickens.
I just got an email some some total moron at my kids' school telling how all kids with a slightly high temperature or any cold symptoms will be sent home.
Pity about half the school has a cold at the moment, but they don't seem to have taken that into account.
The press had advertising money to consider so I understand why they want to produce scare stories, but quite why people want to do it on forums is a little harder to understand.

BRING OUT YOU DEAD

https://youtu.be/GU0d8kpybVg

Reminds me of the Y2K debacle that we had in 1999.

colinoscapee :
Indices :
THIGV :


So based on that statement, you were in Vietnam from maybe 1974 to 1985.  This would place you in the country squarely during the premiership of Le Duan who died in 1986.   As this was a period of forced collectivization in the countryside, and an actual decline in personal income from the war years, how did an Englishman survive?  You certainly were not teaching ESL. It was also a period when many of the same people that you can see walking the streets today were in reeducation camps.  I realize that Vietnam was theoretically open to citizens of countries like the UK that had declined to participate in the war but I am wondering if you could walk the streets freely.

There was food rationing, and coupons were required to purchase food.  As a foreigner, how did you get ration coupons?  (My wife has told me that she made extra money as a teen smuggling refined sugar from Ben Tre to Tien Giang Province as even that much trade was illegal.  This was to assist her family even though her father was fully employed as a Party official.)  Again, as an Englishman, how did you keep body and mind together during that time, especially living in the countryside.

It was not an easy time and one I see no reason to go into apart from saying I was mainly involved in infrastructure projects. I had a university degree in mechanical engineering obtained by the time I was 22. My skills were especially useful during that period and rarely travelled without escort. The atrocities I witnesses on a daily basis are best left buried.

My mate is going to  write a book about Vietnam in that period. He would be interested in seeing your photos,documentation and stories about your time spent here as an engineer.

I wish him well but raking over old coals is not something I would want to do. It was a lifetime ago and there is nothing to be gained from revisiting the tragedy of the war, its aftermath or the brutality that followed. The vets that were there know already , even half of my wife's family were wiped out, land taken etc etc. Both of her Grandparents were beheaded.  I have moved on and wish to remain that way.

Troll are as welcome as a sudden onset of uncontrollable bowels when you're 5 minutes away from the nearest toilet.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51429400

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that "trolls and conspiracy theories" are undermining their response to the new coronavirus.

WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters that misinformation was "making the work of our heroic workers even harder".

That's very extreme. Your chances if getting sick from a virus.. Any virus.. At an airport.. Or in a plane for 10 hours of more.. Faaaaar greater than a random encounter somewhere in SEA

kallouche :

...we can already see the numbers of deaths increasing in China ... all the countries bordering China must be worried because all will affected be sure... , I think that a lot of expats will have to return to their countries...

The condition of this American woman who caught the Corona virus on the cruise ship is UNBELIEVABLE!!!

Unbelievably SICK American Woman with Corona Virus!!!

According to the YouTube video there is NO TREATMENT for her illness!!!

OceanBeach92107 :
kallouche :

...we can already see the numbers of deaths increasing in China ... all the countries bordering China must be worried because all will affected be sure... , I think that a lot of expats will have to return to their countries...

The condition of this American woman who caught the Corona virus on the cruise ship is UNBELIEVABLE!!!

Unbelievably SICK American Woman with Corona Virus!!!

According to the YouTube video there is NO TREATMENT for her illness!!!

Other than thinking that she should have been given some basic drugs to help alleviate fever, sore throat etc to make her more comfortable she seems remarkably well considering and has a very realistic view in terms of the mass panic. As she has said, if you are fit and healthy it is much the same as having a cold. Puts the whole epidemic in proportion. Hope she gets home soon.

Indices :
OceanBeach92107 :
kallouche :

...we can already see the numbers of deaths increasing in China ... all the countries bordering China must be worried because all will affected be sure... , I think that a lot of expats will have to return to their countries...

The condition of this American woman who caught the Corona virus on the cruise ship is UNBELIEVABLE!!!

Unbelievably SICK American Woman with Corona Virus!!!

According to the YouTube video there is NO TREATMENT for her illness!!!

Other than thinking that she should have been given some basic drugs to help alleviate fever, sore throat etc to make her more comfortable she seems remarkably well considering and has a very realistic view in terms of the mass panic. As she has said, if you are fit and healthy it is much the same as having a cold. Puts the whole epidemic in proportion. Hope she gets home soon.

Maybe I exaggerated with key words...

😉

Latest as of today mortality rate is estimated 1% with 20% that get serious complications dieing- many will have had mild or no symptoms . It is a pandemic now and won't be contained as it is highly contagious with an incubation period upto 24 days.

Flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% and kills 650,000 a year, but there is some herd immunity and vaccinations lower the infection rate. Flu typically infects 1.28 people per infected vs the Ncov2019 of 2.8 (a figure that may vary substantially).

So 10x the rate equals 6.5 million estimated death rate, but lack of herd immunity will increase the death rate as more get infected.

Maybe 10 to 15 million will die. Anyone saying that is nothing to worry about is an A hole.

Btw alleviating the fever DO NOT DO THIS unless the temperature is very high. The fever helps fight the virus.

OceanBeach92107 :

The condition of this American woman who caught the Corona virus on the cruise ship is UNBELIEVABLE!!!

Unbelievably SICK American Woman with Corona Virus!!!

According to the YouTube video there is NO TREATMENT for her illness!!!

If you think her condition is unbelievable it must be because it is unbelievable how healthy she seems.  Also as an R.N.  I am surprised that you would express surprise that she was not being treated but only monitored.  You of all people should certainly be aware that most viral diseases have no prescribed medications but must simply run their course.  Cold medications may give palliative relief but will not affect the virus.  I know that there are antiviral drugs but I was told by a physician recently that most of them are very specific to certain viral groups.  Perhaps I have misinterpreted what you wrote but I am surprised by your comment. 

It is becoming apparent that the virus is a real danger to the elderly and that is where most of the fatalities have been.  It may also be dangerous to those with impaired immune systems due to other conditions.  The regular annual flu can also be fatal for the elderly but fortunately we have vaccines.  It seems that the virus is bearable in healthy middle aged and young adults and sometimes so mild as to not even be diagnosed in children.  For a country like Vietnam, the elderly particularly in rural areas may be at risk but most expats should have access to decent hospitals and professional care even if they were to contract the disease.

Edit:  Apparently you admitted to "exaggerat[ing] with key words" while I was composing my post.  I would genuinely like you to critique my comment as it is from a layman's perspective.

Nemodot :

Latest as of today mortality rate is estimated 1% with 20% that get serious complications dieing- many will have had mild or no symptoms . It is a pandemic now and won't be contained as it is highly contagious with an incubation period upto 24 days.

Flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% and kills 650,000 a year, but there is some herd immunity and vaccinations lower the infection rate. Flu typically infects 1.28 people per infected vs the Ncov2019 of 2.8 (a figure that may vary substantially).

So 10x the rate equals 6.5 million estimated death rate, but lack of herd immunity will increase the death rate as more get infected.

Maybe 10 to 15 million will die. Anyone saying that is nothing to worry about is an A hole.

Btw alleviating the fever DO NOT DO THIS unless the temperature is very high. The fever helps fight the virus.

Latest from an expert, and I quote :
"China's top virus expert says outbreak may peak this month
China's coronavirus epidemic may peak in February and then plateau before easing, the government's top medical adviser on the outbreak said.

In an exclusive interview with Reuters news agency, Zhong Nanshan, a leading epidemiologist who won international fame for his role in combating the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the situation in some provinces was already improving, with the number of new cases declining. "

No one is saying the virus is not cause for concern, but rather that it is not as catastrophic as some people are seemingly taking delight in claiming. Saying that 10 to 15m people will die is somewhat extreme, especially as many of the guessed figure already have other problems and could well have died anyway. As for calling people A holes is that because they do not agree with what you are saying ?
As stated many times on here, a sensible degree of common sense and emphasis on personal hygiene is all that is necessary. Insults and profanity are not a cure.

Indices :

Latest from an expert, and I quote :
"China's top virus expert says outbreak may peak this month
China's coronavirus epidemic may peak in February and then plateau before easing, the government's top medical adviser on the outbreak said.

In an exclusive interview with Reuters news agency, Zhong Nanshan, a leading epidemiologist who won international fame for his role in combating the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the situation in some provinces was already improving, with the number of new cases declining. "

Why don't you quote the entire article? Particularly this paragraph:

"Zhong, who had previously predicted an earlier peak, said the forecast was based on modelling and developments in recent days, as well as government action."

:kiss:

It is too early to say if it is going to get worse or better. The last infection rate graphs I've seen, the slope of the curve has not changed appreciably.

There is a cruise ship in the South China Sea that is being denied entry, anywhere.

And you can bet that Iran will weaponize it.

Our best bet is a vaccine.

THIGV :
OceanBeach92107 :

The condition of this American woman who caught the Corona virus on the cruise ship is UNBELIEVABLE!!!

Unbelievably SICK American Woman with Corona Virus!!!

According to the YouTube video there is NO TREATMENT for her illness!!!

If you think her condition is unbelievable it must be because it is unbelievable how healthy she seems.  Also as an R.N.  I am surprised that you would express surprise that she was not being treated but only monitored.  You of all people should certainly be aware that most viral diseases have no prescribed medications but must simply run their course.  Cold medications may give palliative relief but will not affect the virus.  I know that there are antiviral drugs but I was told by a physician recently that most of them are very specific to certain viral groups.  Perhaps I have misinterpreted what you wrote but I am surprised by your comment. 

It is becoming apparent that the virus is a real danger to the elderly and that is where most of the fatalities have been.  It may also be dangerous to those with impaired immune systems due to other conditions.  The regular annual flu can also be fatal for the elderly but fortunately we have vaccines.  It seems that the virus is bearable in healthy middle aged and young adults and sometimes so mild as to not even be diagnosed in children.  For a country like Vietnam, the elderly particularly in rural areas may be at risk but most expats should have access to decent hospitals and professional care even if they were to contract the disease.

Edit:  Apparently you admitted to "exaggerat[ing] with key words" while I was composing my post.  I would genuinely like you to critique my comment as it is from a layman's perspective.

Did you ever read or see "The Stand" by Stephen King?

That was the ultimate virus: it actually killed you, directly.

Everyone...EVERYONE died, except for the rare cases of mysterious immunity.

There wasn't really any in between

Live immune or die.

Those who are peddling fear here would have us believe THIS is that virus.

Of course, it's not.

My use of "unbelievable" was to say that, if you've been buying the hysteria posted here, then you simply won't be able to believe that a woman could contract the virus and only suffer a brief bout with a nagging cough.

Of course, as she said, she wasn't receiving any treatment because it was not possible for her doctor to isolate a symptom which required any treatment.

However, people who have worse signs and symptoms of the complications of a viral infection definitely do receive medications and treatments which vary according to the severity of their afflictions.

Decongestants, expectorants, antitussives, antipyretics, anti-inflammatories (usually steroids such as prednisone), bronchodilators and ANTIBIOTICS (for secondary bacterial infections), methylxanthines (such as Theophyllin), diuretics, electrolytes and intravenous fluids are just some of the drugs routinely prescribed when a viral infection triggers reactive airway syndrome, bronchitis and pneumonia.

Some people (especially the very young and elderly) develop complications from the virus because they either can't actively participate in their recovery (deep breathing exercises, mobility) or because their caregivers mistakenly overprotect them, in effect immobilizing them in bed when they should be walking as often as possible.

Anyway, the situation will improve with the hot period ... but the world economy will slow down more particularly in South East Asia so... in Vietnam!!

atomheart :
Indices :

Latest from an expert, and I quote :
"China's top virus expert says outbreak may peak this month
China's coronavirus epidemic may peak in February and then plateau before easing, the government's top medical adviser on the outbreak said.

In an exclusive interview with Reuters news agency, Zhong Nanshan, a leading epidemiologist who won international fame for his role in combating the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the situation in some provinces was already improving, with the number of new cases declining. "

Why don't you quote the entire article? Particularly this paragraph:

"Zhong, who had previously predicted an earlier peak, said the forecast was based on modelling and developments in recent days, as well as government action."

:kiss:

What happened previously is not relevant and was based on info at that time. The situation has since changed . As stated " Latest " is what is relevant. You are obviously hell bent on both exaggerating the current situation as well as criticising anything I say. Have your personal vendetta if it gives you pleasure but it is the virus we are discussing. The fact remains that common sense and personal hygiene is what is relevant and has already been expressed here many times by those, whilst having varying views, have managed to discuss sensibly.

Indices :

What happened previously is not relevant and was based on info at that time. The situation has since changed . As stated " Latest " is what is relevant. You are obviously hell bent on both exaggerating the current situation as well as criticising anything I say. Have your personal vendetta if it gives you pleasure but it is the virus we are discussing.

How the heck is not relevant that the person you're quoting has already failed to predict the evolution of the outbreak? Can you quote me where I'm exagerating the situatian instead of trying to apply some common sense to all the available data? I don't criticize everything you say, I just point out very obvious omissions or bad logic in your arguments. Optimism is a good thing, unless it's supported by ignorance and tunnel vision.

Indices :

The fact remains that common sense and personal hygiene is what is relevant and has already been expressed here many times by those, whilst having varying views, have managed to discuss sensibly.

If common sense matters, I'd be worried if I were you...  :lol:

Worried about what?
About the virus?
About your opinions?
About your endless discussions!!

atomheart :
Indices :

What happened previously is not relevant and was based on info at that time. The situation has since changed . As stated " Latest " is what is relevant. You are obviously hell bent on both exaggerating the current situation as well as criticising anything I say. Have your personal vendetta if it gives you pleasure but it is the virus we are discussing.

How the heck is not relevant that the person you're quoting has already failed to predict the evolution of the outbreak? Can you quote me where I'm exagerating the situatian instead of trying to apply some common sense to all the available data? I don't criticize everything you say, I just point out very obvious omissions or bad logic in your arguments. Optimism is a good thing, unless it's supported by ignorance and tunnel vision.

Indices :

The fact remains that common sense and personal hygiene is what is relevant and has already been expressed here many times by those, whilst having varying views, have managed to discuss sensibly.

If common sense matters, I'd be worried if I were you...  :lol:

The figures are so far backing his evaluation as they are decelerating. Besides which my original response was to highlight the varying data and opinions and the fact that the truth lay somewhere in between. Personally I have no interest in your own opinions or evaluation of the virus. We can each quote all sorts of figures, extreme or otherwise and argue until the cows come home. As for tunnel vision I guess you are an expert so enjoy your evening.

Indices :

The figures are so far backing his evaluation as they are decelerating.

Which figures?

Indices :
Nemodot :

Latest as of today mortality rate is estimated 1% with 20% that get serious complications dieing- many will have had mild or no symptoms . It is a pandemic now and won't be contained as it is highly contagious with an incubation period upto 24 days.

Flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% and kills 650,000 a year, but there is some herd immunity and vaccinations lower the infection rate. Flu typically infects 1.28 people per infected vs the Ncov2019 of 2.8 (a figure that may vary substantially).

So 10x the rate equals 6.5 million estimated death rate, but lack of herd immunity will increase the death rate as more get infected.

Maybe 10 to 15 million will die. Anyone saying that is nothing to worry about is an A hole.

Btw alleviating the fever DO NOT DO THIS unless the temperature is very high. The fever helps fight the virus.

Latest from an expert, and I quote :
"China's top virus expert says outbreak may peak this month
China's coronavirus epidemic may peak in February and then plateau before easing, the government's top medical adviser on the outbreak said.

In an exclusive interview with Reuters news agency, Zhong Nanshan, a leading epidemiologist who won international fame for his role in combating the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the situation in some provinces was already improving, with the number of new cases declining. "

No one is saying the virus is not cause for concern, but rather that it is not as catastrophic as some people are seemingly taking delight in claiming. Saying that 10 to 15m people will die is somewhat extreme, especially as many of the guessed figure already have other problems and could well have died anyway. As for calling people A holes is that because they do not agree with what you are saying ?
As stated many times on here, a sensible degree of common sense and emphasis on personal hygiene is all that is necessary. Insults and profanity are not a cure.

Propaganda for the gullible fools aside, facts are facts. The R0, mortality rate and that real experts (outside of the corrupt National Socialist dictatorship of the PRC) say a pandemic is probably unavoidable now, points to upto 425 million deaths (higher end estimates) mine is a lower end estimate based on facts as they are now. Your opinion is based on a low level of knowledge and pure ignorance of facts plus believing any old nonsense spewed out.

The 1918 flu killed 50 to 100 million people when the world was far less populated and modern medicine won't help when overwhelmed with numbers, except for the well off few whose mortality rate will be lower, most of the world will suffer. The same kind of stupid propaganda was used back then as well!

kallouche :

Worried about what?
About the virus?
About your opinions?
About your endless discussions!!

You are the one who encouraged hysteria by creating a thread about worries, essentially pointing the discussion away from facts and toward feelings.

I'm not criticizing, but I'm also not surprised that people are crunching numbers in order to justify their fears and anger.

I've been watching YT videos about the 1918 Spanish flu. That was unbelievable. Great uncles and great aunts from my family just disappeared and were never heard from again, especially those from distant states. There are branches in my family tree that just end with no explanation. No doubt there are a lot of Chinese branches that are suffering the same fate.
Is there an official clearinghouse that is maintaining the "most official" stats? I've seen a lot of bad opinions concerning WHO.

My wife just landed in Japan on her way home from Saigon. She's none too happy and very worried about the trip.

OceanBeach92107 :
kallouche :

Worried about what?
About the virus?
About your opinions?
About your endless discussions!!

You are the one who encouraged hysteria by creating a thread about worries, essentially pointing the discussion away from facts and toward feelings.

I'm not criticizing, but I'm also not surprised that people are crunching numbers in order to justify their fears and anger.

WHO stated mortality rate is approx 2% but Chinese scientists say it closer to 1% allowing for cases that showed no fever. Looking at the stats we have 1 to 2% is very realistic. It kills smokers at a higher rate, and potentially causes an abortion rate of over 30% plus (based on a small sample set) and SARS caused a high rate of birth defects.

There are 7.77 billion people on Earth, and experts say 60% would get infected.

That's 50 to a 100 million deaths in the first wave. Later waves would kill less as immunity would have built up. Poorer countries and those with more smokers would have a higher death rate. That excludes millions of miscarriages and birth deformities resulting in early infant death. Probably millions of children will be born with defects and low IQ because of this virus (from early evidence).

In conclusion there is no overreaction. It is a serious problem.

If the the virus evolves as it adapts to humans and the mortality rate increases.... say 5% (Smallpox was 30%) then..... the reason for the extreme quarantine in China is obvious. And
May may be they are underreporting deaths (they do with influenza we know that as a fact).

Nemodot :

That's 50 to a 100 million deaths in the first wave.

In conclusion there is no overreaction. It is a serious problem.

My god some people are just crazy on this.    You mean to tell me that you TRULY BELIEVE that more than 50 MILLION people are going to die from this?  It's another SARS or MERS.  It will blow itself out shortly, just like all of the other ones have.  It's pneumonia.  People get it, some old people or people with heath problems will die from it.  It isn't some super deadly thing that you will die from if you aren't healthy.
Fear mongering.

And before you say "no I am not" please explain why you put a 425,000,000 figure out there on a previous post even when in the next breath you said you don't believe it and think it will be less.  And now you are touting a still-ridiculous-but-somewhat-tempered number and it's still 1000000% too high.  There is NO POINT in putting out that kind of information just to stir up people.

Nemodot :
OceanBeach92107 :
kallouche :

Worried about what?
About the virus?
About your opinions?
About your endless discussions!!

You are the one who encouraged hysteria by creating a thread about worries, essentially pointing the discussion away from facts and toward feelings.

I'm not criticizing, but I'm also not surprised that people are crunching numbers in order to justify their fears and anger.

WHO stated mortality rate is approx 2% but Chinese scientists say it closer to 1% allowing for cases that showed no fever. Looking at the stats we have 1 to 2% is very realistic. It kills smokers at a higher rate, and potentially causes an abortion rate of over 30% plus (based on a small sample set) and SARS caused a high rate of birth defects.

There are 7.77 billion people on Earth, and experts say 60% would get infected.

That's 50 to a 100 million deaths in the first wave. Later waves would kill less as immunity would have built up. Poorer countries and those with more smokers would have a higher death rate. That excludes millions of miscarriages and birth deformities resulting in early infant death. Probably millions of children will be born with defects and low IQ because of this virus (from early evidence).

In conclusion there is no overreaction. It is a serious problem.

If the the virus evolves as it adapts to humans and the mortality rate increases.... say 5% (Smallpox was 30%) then..... the reason for the extreme quarantine in China is obvious. And
May may be they are underreporting deaths (they do with influenza we know that as a fact).

Hypothetically, what would be the impact on those numbers if immediately--today--every person in the world were to adopt perfect personal hygiene practices, especially hand washing/sanitizing?

One retort might be that the poor would be screwed because they are less likely to have consistently acceptable hand washing facilities and portable sanitizing products.

But wait:

It's not the poor who are spreading this disease worldwide, since they can't afford a plane ticket.

So we probably don't need the entire world population to change their hygiene habits.

If we could just get the more highly educated upwardly mobile classes to IMMEDIATELY adopt better hygiene practices, we could significantly impact the numbers you've quoted and save the impoverished peoples of the world from a pandemic empowered by The Haves against The Have Nots.

Why do you think that won't happen?

SteinNebraska :

My god some people are just crazy on this.    You mean to tell me that you TRULY BELIEVE that more than 50 MILLION people are going to die from this?  It's another SARS or MERS.  It will blow itself out shortly, just like all of the other ones have.  It's pneumonia.  People get it, some old people or people with heath problems will die from it.  It isn't some super deadly thing that you will die from if you aren't healthy.
Fear mongering.

I sincely hope that you are right, and Nemodot is wrong, but his numbers don't seem particularly far fetched to me. Given the penchant of governments everywhere to lie about almost everything, I am rather skeptical of the figures coming out of the CCP. With the R0 currently estimated, the quadratic curve the official numbers describe looks rather improbable mathematically.

We'll find out how long those CCP noses are in due course.

OceanBeach92107 :
Nemodot :
OceanBeach92107 :

You are the one who encouraged hysteria by creating a thread about worries, essentially pointing the discussion away from facts and toward feelings.

I'm not criticizing, but I'm also not surprised that people are crunching numbers in order to justify their fears and anger.

WHO stated mortality rate is approx 2% but Chinese scientists say it closer to 1% allowing for cases that showed no fever. Looking at the stats we have 1 to 2% is very realistic. It kills smokers at a higher rate, and potentially causes an abortion rate of over 30% plus (based on a small sample set) and SARS caused a high rate of birth defects.

There are 7.77 billion people on Earth, and experts say 60% would get infected.

That's 50 to a 100 million deaths in the first wave. Later waves would kill less as immunity would have built up. Poorer countries and those with more smokers would have a higher death rate. That excludes millions of miscarriages and birth deformities resulting in early infant death. Probably millions of children will be born with defects and low IQ because of this virus (from early evidence).

In conclusion there is no overreaction. It is a serious problem.

If the the virus evolves as it adapts to humans and the mortality rate increases.... say 5% (Smallpox was 30%) then..... the reason for the extreme quarantine in China is obvious. And
May may be they are underreporting deaths (they do with influenza we know that as a fact).

Hypothetically, what would be the impact on those numbers if immediately--today--every person in the world were to adopt perfect personal hygiene practices, especially hand washing/sanitizing?

One retort might be that the poor would be screwed because they are less likely to have consistently acceptable hand washing facilities and portable sanitizing products.

But wait:

It's not the poor who are spreading this disease worldwide, since they can't afford a plane ticket.

So we probably don't need the entire world population to change their hygiene habits.

If we could just get the more highly educated upwardly mobile classes to IMMEDIATELY adopt better hygiene practices, we could significantly impact the numbers you've quoted and save the impoverished peoples of the world from a pandemic empowered by The Haves against The Have Nots.

Why do you think that won't happen?

1918 there was very little air travel and the black death killed off the Roman empire, decimated the Byzantium empire (50% killed) all by horse and cart transfer. Which arguably led to the rise of Arabic power and Islam. Anyway most of PRC is still in the medieval era in regards to hygiene and medical knowledge (even of GPs it is awful in rural areas) and people often stick to trafitional medicine - so changing habits is hard.

Slowing the spread of Covid19 is designed to minimize economic damage, not deaths. A vaccine will take a year and it will spread before then, although it does reduce the risk of a super strain, as it hoped that by natural selection the most infectious strains are the least deadly and spread the fastest. However that is just a hope.

I hope it does get contained or we just end up with just a new cold strain, but the suggestion that it uses ACE2 as an infection method is concerning. Also a good time to give up smoking as it kills smokers far more!

Do note secondary issues could kill a lot of people. 97% of antibiotics consumed in the USA are from China. Factories are closed. That could be serious. Also lots of other medicines are affected too.

To put numbers in context.

650,000 a year estimated, die from flu a year.
1.6 million in PRC die every year (est) from pollution related illnesses. Covid19 might save some of those lives via less pollution!

50% of worlds antibiotics by tonnage are used in the PRC. Rivers are full of antibiotics resulting in the threat of super bacterial infections. That could kill a lot more people.....

Nemodot :
OceanBeach92107 :
Nemodot :


WHO stated mortality rate is approx 2% but Chinese scientists say it closer to 1% allowing for cases that showed no fever. Looking at the stats we have 1 to 2% is very realistic. It kills smokers at a higher rate, and potentially causes an abortion rate of over 30% plus (based on a small sample set) and SARS caused a high rate of birth defects.

There are 7.77 billion people on Earth, and experts say 60% would get infected.

That's 50 to a 100 million deaths in the first wave. Later waves would kill less as immunity would have built up. Poorer countries and those with more smokers would have a higher death rate. That excludes millions of miscarriages and birth deformities resulting in early infant death. Probably millions of children will be born with defects and low IQ because of this virus (from early evidence).

In conclusion there is no overreaction. It is a serious problem.

If the the virus evolves as it adapts to humans and the mortality rate increases.... say 5% (Smallpox was 30%) then..... the reason for the extreme quarantine in China is obvious. And
May may be they are underreporting deaths (they do with influenza we know that as a fact).

Hypothetically, what would be the impact on those numbers if immediately--today--every person in the world were to adopt perfect personal hygiene practices, especially hand washing/sanitizing?

One retort might be that the poor would be screwed because they are less likely to have consistently acceptable hand washing facilities and portable sanitizing products.

But wait:

It's not the poor who are spreading this disease worldwide, since they can't afford a plane ticket.

So we probably don't need the entire world population to change their hygiene habits.

If we could just get the more highly educated upwardly mobile classes to IMMEDIATELY adopt better hygiene practices, we could significantly impact the numbers you've quoted and save the impoverished peoples of the world from a pandemic empowered by The Haves against The Have Nots.

Why do you think that won't happen?

1918 there was very little air travel and the black death killed off the Roman empire, decimated the Byzantium empire (50% killed) all by horse and cart transfer. Which arguably led to the rise of Arabic power and Islam. Anyway most of PRC is still in the medieval era in regards to hygiene and medical knowledge (even of GPs it is awful in rural areas) and people often stick to trafitional medicine - so changing habits is hard.

Slowing the spread of Covid19 is designed to minimize economic damage, not deaths. A vaccine will take a year and it will spread before then, although it does reduce the risk of a super strain, as it hoped that by natural selection the most infectious strains are the least deadly and spread the fastest. However that is just a hope.

I hope it does get contained or we just end up with just a new cold strain, but the suggestion that it uses ACE2 as an infection method is concerning. Also a good time to give up smoking as it kills smokers far more!

Do note secondary issues could kill a lot of people. 97% of antibiotics consumed in the USA are from China. Factories are closed. That could be serious. Also lots of other medicines are affected too.

To put numbers in context.

650,000 a year estimated, die from flu a year.
1.6 million in PRC die every year (est) from pollution related illnesses. Covid19 might save some of those lives via less pollution!

50% of worlds antibiotics by tonnage are used in the PRC. Rivers are full of antibiotics resulting in the threat of super bacterial infections. That could kill a lot more people.....

as you sow, so shall you reap

Jim-Minh :

I've been watching YT videos about the 1918 Spanish flu. That was unbelievable. Great uncles and great aunts from my family just disappeared and were never heard from again, especially those from distant states. There are branches in my family tree that just end with no explanation. No doubt there are a lot of Chinese branches that are suffering the same fate.
Is there an official clearinghouse that is maintaining the "most official" stats? I've seen a lot of bad opinions concerning WHO.

My wife just landed in Japan on her way home from Saigon. She's none too happy and very worried about the trip.

I wish her well and hope she is ok.

Jim-Minh :

I've been watching YT videos about the 1918 Spanish flu. That was unbelievable. Great uncles and great aunts from my family just disappeared and were never heard from again, especially those from distant states. There are branches in my family tree that just end with no explanation. No doubt there are a lot of Chinese branches that are suffering the same fate.
Is there an official clearinghouse that is maintaining the "most official" stats? I've seen a lot of bad opinions concerning WHO.

My wife just landed in Japan on her way home from Saigon. She's none too happy and very worried about the trip.

It seems that one can search and find whatever they want to prove which was my original point.
For what it is worth the numbers that were recommended to me by my daughter that lectures at a university in Scotland came for the website they use themselves.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r … n9ioRqLcWJ . Accuracy cannot be guaranteed of course, but it does put the infection in context in terms of fatalities etc etc and clearly shows a promising decline in the infection rate. As an aside, my daughters boss is the head of viral infections at the Uni and when asked for advice he virtually mirrored your own with personal hygiene as the priority.

atomheart :
Indices :

The figures are so far backing his evaluation as they are decelerating.

Which figures?

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r … n9ioRqLcWJ

Indices :
atomheart :
Indices :

The figures are so far backing his evaluation as they are decelerating.

Which figures?

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r … n9ioRqLcWJ

Ok, the total new cases per day (driven by China) seems to be declining. Let's trust the official chinese numbers for now. See the "Daily New Casses Outside of China"...

Also see the "Serious or Critical" percentage of "currently infected", which is very close to "deaths" of "cases with outcome".

atomheart :
Indices :
atomheart :


Which figures?

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r … n9ioRqLcWJ

Ok, the total new cases per day (driven by China) seems to be declining. Let's trust the official chinese numbers for now. See the "Daily New Casses Outside of China"...

Also see the "Serious or Critical" percentage of "currently infected", which is very close to "deaths" of "cases with outcome".

No point responding further, said enough already. Have a good day.

This crown shaped virus might well be nasty and have the potential to be serious, but this isn't 1665 London.

Care? Yes
Panic (outside some bits of China)? Get real

The press love scare stories but those of us with a working brain know they get their cash from advertising, and that means conning people into reading their grotty little rags, preferably idiots too stupid to realise they're being fed a large dose of bovine excrement.

By the way, the latest tin foil hat job is Israel created the virus for the Americans with the fowl (yes, Deliberate - if you've been reading the latest news about bird flu) intent of damaging the Chinese economy.

Fred :

This crown shaped virus might well be nasty and have the potential to be serious, but this isn't 1665 London.

Care? Yes
Panic (outside some bits of China)? Get real

The press love scare stories but those of us with a working brain know they get their cash from advertising, and that means conning people into reading their grotty little rags, preferably idiots too stupid to realise they're being fed a large dose of bovine excrement.

By the way, the latest tin foil hat job is Israel created the virus for the Americans with the fowl (yes, Deliberate - if you've been reading the latest news about bird flu) intent of damaging the Chinese economy.

Fred you are ignoring a simple fact. A handful people get Covid19 and with oxygen therapy and ICU care their mortality rate is very low.

But evidence is 11% of those infected get serious complications.

10 million catch it. 1 million ICU beds needed. Even the UK hasn't got that! Most are chucked on beds and current death rate from those needing ICU is over 20%.

So 200,000 die. Indonesia could have a 100 million infected with 2 million dead. Based on current stats from research this is a likely scenario.

I think you also need to read up more about this corona virus. It's a genetically altered virus. Yes it's similar to SERS and MERS. The difference is its "aerosol" properties. It does not require direct contact. It remains in the air you brteath. Incidentally It will be sometime before a vaccine is developed. From memory there still isn't one for SERS.

I'm with Indicies.  I'm out of this thread.

the rest of you hand wringers can continue wringing and claiming the sky is falling.  Mark my words, this will fade away just like all of the other super-hyped catastrophes the last two decades (including the not-medically-related but eminently relate-able January 1, 2000 debacle).  I'm moving on with my life.

Nemodot :
Fred :

This crown shaped virus might well be nasty and have the potential to be serious, but this isn't 1665 London.

Care? Yes
Panic (outside some bits of China)? Get real

The press love scare stories but those of us with a working brain know they get their cash from advertising, and that means conning people into reading their grotty little rags, preferably idiots too stupid to realise they're being fed a large dose of bovine excrement.

By the way, the latest tin foil hat job is Israel created the virus for the Americans with the fowl (yes, Deliberate - if you've been reading the latest news about bird flu) intent of damaging the Chinese economy.

Fred you are ignoring a simple fact. A handful people get Covid19 and with oxygen therapy and ICU care their mortality rate is very low.

But evidence is 11% of those infected get serious complications.

10 million catch it. 1 million ICU beds needed. Even the UK hasn't got that! Most are chucked on beds and current death rate from those needing ICU is over 20%.

So 200,000 die. Indonesia could have a 100 million infected with 2 million dead. Based on current stats from research this is a likely scenario.

Ridiculous figures that have no reality to actual facts. The virus infection rate is already slowing down,
most of those infected are classed as having minor symptoms and the large majority recover.
With respect I think you should change both your doctor and your medication as it is apparent that neither are working.
We have in house retired nurses on the forum, listen to them, be sensible and you stand more chance of dying from food poisoning than Cv.
Get a grip for heavens sake.

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