The US Dollar Vs. The Colombian Peso ............. Who's Up? Who's Down?

LET'S GO, PEH-SO!! (clap clap, clapclapclap) LET'S GO, PEH-SO!! (clap clap, clapclapclap) 😅If it hits 5,000 this month I will be happy...

-@ChineduOpara

As a requirement for the Nomad visa, that will make your private health insurance policy more affordable.  I assume you have been checking out your options, whether it be Sura, Assist Card or a host of other options.

@N.Barley You read my mind! You're clearly a smart fella 😁 Yeah I will wait 1 more week and try to buy my insurance (in my case, it has to be Travel Insurance) using pesos at the highest exchange rate possible.

Up, Up, Up.

An upward trend favoring the U.S. Dollar has

persisted since January 24, when the Dollar

slumped to 4517 against the Colombian Peso.

Since then, the Peso has continually moved

upwards, closing the week ending Friday,

February 17, 2023, at 4899 Pesos to the Dollar.

The Dollar is at a 24.6 percent higher valuation

than it was versus the Peso one year ago.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

I'm just going to shut up and eat my arepa. I was wrong about the dollar continuing to fall. USA economy is just too strong under current administration. Of course, we have yet to see what happens with the 2023 debt default negotiations. The CBO is very concerned about a default leading to higher interest rates, a stock market crash, a recession, massive job losses, etc. But for now the dollar is strong! 4,900 last time I checked.

The economy is not "strong" under this administration. This "administration" has done everything wrong domestically and regarding foreign policy. The main reason we even have inflation is from Biden's war on domestic energy and trillions in new spending. The fed has no choice but to raise rates. There will not be any default. Do you think this is Argentina or Venezuela? The improved exchange rate is due to the fact that despite Biden's bungling, Columbia is worse. I live under "this administration's policies every day and listen to their bull$hit. 

Dollar slippage.

There was some late slippage in the value of

the U.S. Dollar during the week ending on the

final Friday of February 2023.

The period showed a one-week drop of

49 Pesos, with the closing value of

4850 Pesos to the Dollar.

Source.... xe.com USD-COP charting

USA economy is just too strong under current administration. 
-@futuroexpat

No.

The Colombia economy is just too weak.

Compare it's weakness, and timing, to that of other S. American countries.  When you thought it was getting 'better', is the same time (maybe a few days later) that Petro's administration announced his budget...then the dollar started to rise...

An almost 200-Peso drop for the Dollar.

The U.S. Dollar got within 36 Pesos of the iconic

5000-mark this week ended March 3, 2023,

before falling to 4788 Pesos at the

Friday close.

The Dollar is 27 percent higher versus

Colombian currency compared to the values

of one year ago.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting.

These posts disregard fractional totals .. and

are rounded up or down to the nearest Peso.

I chose just the right time to change a lot of dollars into COP. 

A continued downward move characterized the

U.S. Dollar during the week ended March 10, 2023.

The Dollar lost 68 Pesos in value during the week

and ended at Friday's close at 4720 Pesos to the

Dollar.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

Reversing course.

The U.S. Dollar reversed course and rose

in value versus the Colombian Peso during

the week ending today, March 17, 2023.

The Dollar was valued at 4843 Pesos as of

Friday's close, 123 Pesos more than at the

close one week before.

The Dollar's current value versus the Peso

represents an increase of 35.6 percent

compared to two years ago.

Source... USD-COP charting at xe.com

Dollar downward trend.

XE.com charting shows a downward trend

for the U.S. Dollar versus Colombian currency

for the week ending today, March 24, 2023.

The Dollar fell 102 Pesos in value this week.

It remains about 25 percent higher in its value

versus the Peso compared to one year ago,

currently 4741 Pesos to the Dollar.

The dollar has not been over 5,000 at any time during this year. As you say, the trend is downward. When I arrived in Colombia in the last century the dollar was 1,000.

Downward trend?  It's been relatively flat since November.

Was 1000 when you arrived and now it's hovering just under 5000 and you call that a downward trend for the dollar?

On Nov. 4, 2022 the dollar was at 5,091. Yesterday it was at 4,741. I think losing 350 is a downward trend. If it ever goes over 5,000 again, that would indicate an upward trend. I think that is how it works. Money does not really interest me. There are many things more important than money. Exchange rate goes up. Then it goes down. Up. Down. Down. Up. Up. Down. Kind of boring really.

Again...picking two dates to compare is absurd.

Nov 11 it was 4800.  A period of 2 weeks where it was above that in November doesn't infer a downward trend until now.

Dollar channeling since January.

The U.S. Dollar lost some ground this week,

the last week in March, closing on Friday at

a level of 4655 Colombian Pesos to the Dollar.

The Dollar has been channeling at or above

the 4500's for the past two months.  Its

current level is 125 Pesos above its

late-January exchange rate.

Source... xe.com USD/COP charting

As a note on the Dollar, things are afoot in the world at the moment.

We have China's new deal with Brazil and ASEAN talking about non-Dollar mutual trade.

The Russia thing has changed a few minds about keeping too many Dollars in reserve as it is being seen as weaponised by some countries.

I can see a time when the Dollar weakens a lot and, with the amount of notes they're printing, that could lead to a massive disruption in Dollar value. That might well lead to a depression that would make 1929 look like you'd lost a couple of coins down the back of an armchair.

One to keep an eye on.

Fred has it right.

Looks like the dollar is losing its global reserve status.  China is trying to break the bank.

Looks like the dollar is losing its global reserve status. China is trying to break the bank.
-@mtbe

Think happy thoughts. Expats using Dollars are doing well at the moment.

However, without any politics, Dollar holding expats would be well advised to keep an eye on things over the next couple of years

Slip sliding persists.

The U.S. Dollar's value has been slip sliding away

for three weeks now.  The exchange closed today,

Friday, April 7, 2023, with the Dollar valued at

4566 Colombian Pesos.

The Dollar's value at Friday's close was

21.64 percent higher than its value of a year ago

versus the Peso, despite Dollar weakness

since mid-March.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

March 15 to April 15.

In a continually downward trajectory

that has persisted for a month,

the U.S. Dollar has gone below support

and below the 4500 Peso level.

The Dollar is more than 300 Pesos below

its March 15 level .. closing the week

ending April 15 at 4423 Pesos.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

If the 300 pesos a month decline continues for the next 8 months, we will have a 2,000 to 1 exchange rate next year.

If the 300 pesos a month decline continues for the next 8 months, we will have a 2,000 to 1 exchange rate next year.
-@futuroexpat

Highly unlikely.  Straight-line extrapolations seldom occur in the money markets.  There are just too many factors that figure into it - the weakness of Petro's government, pitted against the weakness of the USA government, and unforseen financial and other political and economic complications make it a crap shoot.

@futuroexpat Please don't say such things 😢

As my right-wing friends are fond of saying: "Straight-line extrapolations seldom occur in the money markets, until they do." Black swans and all that...

@ChineduOpara ... A stronger peso would be good for Colombians. A stronger dollar is good for expats. Some are happy when it fluctuates up, others are happy when it fluctuates down. So, the fluctuations in monetary values make everyone happy at one time or another...  happiness is spread all around... so happy, like dancers dancing to the marimba rhythms of Zimbabwean Shona music.

@futuroexpat Last year on April 15 the peso exchange rate was 3,727 pesos/dollar. Today it is 4,423 pesos/dollar. If that exchange rate continues for the next ten years we will be getting 11,383 pesos/dollar. Entonces?

lpd

@futuroexpat

Don' worry - - Be Happy!!

Happy, happy, happy!!

@Lpdiver ... According to some "Straight-line extrapolations seldom occur in the money markets." Entonces, even less likely over a decade. Don't worry, be happy!

@Lpdiver ... According to some "Straight-line extrapolations seldom occur in the money markets." Entonces, even less likely over a decade. Don't worry, be happy!
-@futuroexpat

I'm not sure why you cannot accept a fact, that as I stated, straight-line extrapolations seldom occur in the money markets.  Or in almost anything - it was once predicted in the early days of the telephone that half the population would need to be telephone operators, by a straight-line extrapolation.

This chart is only a 10 year picture of USD to COP - it has many ups and downs.  If we could go back farther there were even more ups and downs.  The trend has mostly been up for the USD against the COP, however it has fluctuated a lot.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from … p;view=10Y

I invite you to give me some examples of where straight-line extrapolations have ended up being correct except in certain limited areas over limited time.

@OsageArcher ... "it was once predicted in the early days of the telephone that half the population would need to be telephone operators, by a straight-line extrapolation."

The straight line extrapolation said 50% would be telephone operators? That was about right. Have you seen how many people are walking around operating telephones today? Globally over 50% of the population is operating handheld telephones (4+ Billion out of the 8 Billion global population)

I don't need a 10 year chart of exchange rates when I have 40 years experience in Colombia with the peso/dollar exchange rate. It was 1,000 COP to 1 USD when I arrived in 1984 and it has only increased in one direction in the last 40 years, decade over decade. This decade is not going to be different...  The line only goes in one direction and it has nothing to do with Petro or Biden.

Futuro's prediction is certainly suspect after a year

in which the S&P 500 stocks lost 20 percent of their

combined value (Jan. 1 - Dec. 31, 2022).

2022 was the S&P's worst year since the Recession

in the aughts.

  ----

A 25-year chart at tradingeconomics.com

shows that there have been individual

multi-year periods in which the Dollar or

the Peso moved positively against the opposite

currency.  A rational interpretation of this chart

is that Futuro's recollection of the Dollar

advancing every individual year for

40 years .. is not historically accurate.

cccmedia

@cccmedia and others.

The only real thing that matters to my mind is what are the exchange rates at the moment you are going to purchase an item. Then the question is: Do I have pesos and dollars available to spend and will the seller accept either or both. A street vendor selling empanadas will likely only want pesos, someone selling a residence may take dollars or may not. Then you have to look at the exchange rate at the moment of sale. The rate from yesterday or five years ago is irrelevant as well as the future rate.

When I was working on constructing the Metro Cable the billboards were advertising apartments in Poblado for 20-30 million pesos and the exchange rate was maybe 1200 to 1400 pesos to the dollar...it was a long time ago. Compare that today; yes the exchange rate is much better, and the apartments are much more expensive. Is one better off now or then? Who knows? Who cares. I have to live in the moment with the moments realities.

Probably the best decision I made was to purchase my hovel in Santo Domingo for cash and renovate it in cash over time.

I have been travelling, working, and living in Medellin on and off since the late seventies and have never been in a situation where it was to my advantage to convert pesos to dollars and sent to the US. Once when I sold a residence in Colombia I would have liked to repatriate the money to the US; but, it was going to be problematic so the money remained and I used it rather than convert dollars to pesos.

Currently I have income streams in Colombia as well as the US and a small pension from a third country. So point of sale I decide what is best. Having said that I do follow the exchange rate and will convert more dollars to pesos at certain higher benchmark exchange rates.

A key point for me is that before you move to Colombia "forever". You should have an emergency exit plan and funds set aside to cover that. Yeah, I know many folks think they love the country and will never leave; but, mierda happens. You may have health issues, emotionas issues, safety issues, whatever. You should have a stash that you never touch to cover an emergency expatriation event.

Regards,

elp

The straight line extrapolation said 50% would be telephone operators? That was about right.
-@futuroexpat

That would be telephone operators, at a switchboard.  Did you really not understand that reference or are you instead trying to deliberately twist things?

With your many years of experience in Colombia you could undoubtedly be helpful in this forum.

Dollar reclaims nearly 100 Pesos.

The U.S. Dollar gained close to 100 Pesos

during the week ending today, Friday,

April 21, 2023.

The chart shows the Dollar crossed back

above the 4500-Peso line, closing on

Friday at 4516.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

Petro ousts finance minister in cabinet shakeup.

Peso drops in value.

Presidente Petro booted 7 of his 18 cabinet members

this week, including finance minister Jose Antonio Ocampo,

who had been hailed as a renowned economist

when Petro appointed him. Petro replaced Ocampo

with another highly-credentialed official.

In response to Ocampo's sacking, the Colombian Peso

depreciated by 3.29 percent on Thursday headed into the

close of the currency exchange.

Source... msn.com

XE.com showed the Peso at 4653 to the US Dollar

at the Thursday close.

cccmedia

Source... msn.com

Early reaction to Ocampo news from financial community.

The firing of finance minister Ocampo, seen as an anchor

of stability in the cabinet, is bad news, said

Alejandro Arreaza of Barclays, according to MSN.

However, Arreaza sees a silver lining.  He predicts the

sacking of Ocampo makes it less likely that Petro

will gain passage of a line of radical reforms.

Source... MSN