We never thought this could be possible. Not being able to travel, not even being able to leave our houses… the whole world came to a stop at the beginning of 2020 due to the spread of the Coronavirus. And while the sanitary threat is not quite behind us, the economic aftermath of this crisis is more than ever hanging above our heads. What we are living right now, will probably profoundly change our societies, our economies and our lives. Changes that most likely will still be felt years and years from now. And expatriation will most definitely not be spared. It is tricky to understand how exactly the world of international mobility will be changed by the COVID-19 crisis because a lot of factors come into play. Taking into consideration several factors, I will try to take a few wild (but mostly informed) guesses…
First of all, let's look at the people who decided to head home ahead of or in the midst of the health crisis. A survey carried out by Expat.com in collaboration with April International, an insurance company, has shown that 18% of respondents - all expats - had decided to head home because of the crisis. Most of them did so to be closer to their families and because they trusted the health system of their home country better. These expats, we could read on our forums, were mostly those who were on internships or on short-term assignments abroad. The 80% who decided to stay put were mostly staying because they already had family lives and long-term jobs in their host countries. That's absolutely understandable. I was, myself, in New York at the time and although my wife and three year old daughter had moved with me, we were all desperate for one thing: home (Mauritius)! Thankfully, I managed to fly to my parents' house in France where I still am right now. While it is a relief to be with my family, saying I am not longing for home would be a lie. It is no surprise, therefore, that expats who were not yet settled in their host countries or had no plans to settle permanently would want to move home.
Others, however, had no choice but to go home. Indeed, the economic crisis has, unfortunately, already caused loss of jobs around the world and a few participants in our survey did indicate having had to go home because of loss of a job. And this does not seem to be stopping anytime soon! The International Labour Organization (ILO) has estimated that 55 million people are at risk of losing their jobs because of the crisis with the tourism industry being particularly affected. I do think that a lot of expats living abroad on work permits will be prompted to return to their home countries because of the crisis. Especially because it will be pretty difficult to find a job in the current economic environment. How many expatriate workers will have to return home as a result of loss of job? It is very difficult to make this estimation.
The same economic crisis should also affect to-be expats' projects of working abroad. Indeed, the sanitary crisis and closure of borders has already seen a lot of people having to defer their departures. But until when? Will expatriation projects be back on track as soon as borders open? It is likely that a lot of expatriation projects will considerately change with the economic crisis looming. Not only are a lot of businesses going to think twice before hiring people from abroad, with all the costs this involves, but one of the priorities of this post-COVID world for human resource is promoting remote working practices. Indeed, one thing the crisis has taught us is how to operate businesses remotely and this is something business-owners will have to be more wary of. This could mean hiring foreign expertise who can operate from their home countries.
On the other hand, the desire to travel and live abroad is likely to spout in some or be exacerbated in others after the crisis. I anticipate that, especially among those young international souls looking to experience the world, the lockdowns and closure of borders would have done nothing but give them more reasons to seek internship opportunities, Working-Holiday visas or jobs abroad. What might change, however, is how we choose our host countries. While the quality of healthcare will most definitely weigh more in the balance today than it did a few months ago, the proximity to our home countries and reactivity of the authorities to the COVID-19 are new factors that will likely be taken into account. A consultancy firm specialised in citizenship and permanent residency has already noted a decline in countries like the United Kingdom. The London-based firm has attributed this shift to the late onset of precautionary measures. I personally do not believe it is difficult to rate governments and authorities on how they have dealt with these unprecedented circumstances, to be fair but expats and expats-to-be will most definitely factor in what they think of how the authorities have reacted to the crisis.
Whether we like it or not, the world of global mobility will be turned upside down after the COVID-19 crisis. We tend to speak a lot about tourism, with the closure of borders, it will most definitely be the first industry to be affected on the short-term but expatriation and global mobility will very much see the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, especially on the long-term. This crisis will define the expatriation trends of the next decade- timing, choice of country and will also change the services required by the expat population especially in terms of healthcare- telemedicine, for example, is about to become the hype new thing! We could spend hours talking about the potential changes in global mobility following the COVID-19 crisis and we could run a hundred surveys- but it is you, it is US who will define what expatriation will look like in a year. So, with the new variants in sight, it is up to you to decide how you are designing your expatriation project. Where are you going? How are you getting there? Who is coming with you on this big expatriation? The world really is your oyster! It is time for you to get out there!
