Amidst the Brexit suspense in Scotland

You might want to check percentages of votes cast to remain in Scotland as that might well make a difference to you view of the upcoming possible Brexit.
Scotland voted heavily to remain, and I understand the locals are less than happy at leaving.
You might also want to check the opinions expressed by some Scottish leaders on Brexit and Scotland remaining in the UK.

Fred wrote:

You might want to check percentages of votes cast to remain in Scotland as that might well make a difference to you view of the upcoming possible Brexit.
Scotland voted heavily to remain, and I understand the locals are less than happy at leaving.
You might also want to check the opinions expressed by some Scottish leaders on Brexit and Scotland remaining in the UK.

Scotland - turnout was 67%
Leave 38.0%  1,018,322 VOTES
Remain 62.0%  1,661,191 VOTES

The largest party in Scotland (SNP) have continued to use the Brexit vote as further justification for a referendum for independence.  According to a poll in June 2018, support for independence remains at 40% (no change since the last time they voted on this issue).

Hey Fred and Cynic, hope you're both well. As a matter of fact, I was actually living in the UK during the Brexit vote! I do remember that Scotland voted remain and yep, have been following and I'm still following today as Nicola Sturgeon decides on a referendum. However, we do have a less political and more hands on editorial line to what we write. We want to be able to tell expat stories amidst the Brexit confusion without getting too much into the itsy-bitsies of Brexit!

As a Scot myself, the Scottish people were well aware that a David Cameron re-election would lead to an EU referendum and a likely 'leave' vote (the English right wing press has been flagging anti-immigration rhetoric for decades but it has become especially harsh in recent years). Still, the bulk of my idiot countrymen and women turned out in 2014 and voted to stay. Scotland only has itself to blame, sadly.

The political playing field has changed a lot over the last few months, especially now PM May's total mess of a leadership is over (Not political, just fact pretty much everyone agrees with) and the new PM is going to be pro Brexit, perhaps even with a bent towards 'No deal" if they can't get what they want from European negotiators.
The likely winner, BJ (I use his initials as I believe they sum him up) seems to be an unpleasant chap (if he owned a fish and chip shop, I'd go out for pizza) who is likely to alienate Scotland totally, that potentially leading to stronger public calls for their leave campaign.
The Scottish nationalists (Another pizza lot) are equally rubbish so easily ignored, but that changes if public opinion swings their way, and BJ is the man to hand the nationalists the victory they want.
Historically, England and Scotland have never been besties, even James VI/I taking the English throne in 1603 was a political mess pushed by politicians with their own pockets and religious interests in mind, and things never really improved from there.

Pro Union people really need Hunt to win, but nationalists need BJ as he's easily to most likely candidate to push their cause, not by supporting it, more by annoying everyone so much they want to get away from him.

For transparency - My musings are not based on the politics of any of the people or groups mentioned above (I remain politically neutral as far as this forum goes) , but are based on my dislike of total prats, especially extremist prat politicians.

The Nats have been the best voice of reason during this mess.

It strikes me as odd the proponents of Brexit don't want Scotland to leave the union, but those wanting independence for Scotland want their newly free country in the EU, an organisation that insists on more control over Scottish affairs that England ever did.

I'm trying to think of words that work, "idiocy" coming to mind.

None of what you just said is correct. And I'm sure you know that - the word 'idiocy' comes to mind if you don't but let's try the basics: In an independent Scotland our government is decided by those living and working in Scotland. In the UK, it is decided by the people of England. No one in the EU has any say into either of this.

Oh yeah, and we still get to live and work in 27 other countries visa-free. But damn that oppressive EU.

From the USA I am waiting with some anxiety. The romantic side of me is a Jacobite, but the practical side is firmly entrenched in the relationship with the EU. Talk about a tortured soul. My brain is going to explode.

However, I have recently learned of the issue with regards to fishing in Shetland. I am very troubled by the fishing nets issue and respect for fishing with regard to sustainability. What is the solution?  Brexit?  Without a deal?  WHAT?  That is unthinkable from where I sit. Please educate me why no deal would be a good thing.

I also see a firm disregard for the environment from my own country which troubles me deeply. I do what I can and I vote. But, sometimes the efforts of a single person are just not enough. Nation states have to work together to solve these kinds of problems due to greater resources to problem solve.

That said, my husband and I have adopted Scotland as our dream location. We would love to live there but are finding many roadblocks. The relationship with the EU will definitely impact Scotland whether it is in place or not. Our hopes are that it will work out fine if we take the long view. Perhaps Scotland will be able to negotiate its own agreement? 

Open door policy is nothing but a good thing for the health of any country. I say let everyone who wants to come is welcome. Populations balance out if there are opportunities for people to live safe healthy and happy lives. A fine example is the north American influx of Europeans. Oh yes, they brought diseases the indigenous people could not repel.  Most of them died off due to wars and disease. Was that a good thing?  I think not. But, what is done is done. Great thinkers arrived and created a form of government never before created anywhere in the world. And most of them were Scotch. I admire that fortitude.

Why am I saying that?  Well, I think there are talented people all around the world making huge efforts to find a place to settle and live comfortably. What is wrong with that?

Thanks for “listening”.

Hi again.

I'll try and answer your questions, but these are my personal thoughts and nothing to do with Expat.com:

Leaving Scotland out of this (it's not a single nation issue), nobody knows whether "no deal" will be good, bad or indifferent; at best both sides are postulating and getting no further along the road to consensus, all that is happening is word usage has gone from the sublime to the ridiculous with people now running out of suitable nouns to double down on what they were saying the week before.  Apparently, we are now weeks away from a catastrophe ........ really, last week it was a calamity, the week before a disaster.  The end result is that because there is not the slightest glimpse of any of these things happening, and because the naysayers were predicting exactly the same over the vote itself (where again, nothing, as they forecasted, happened), nobody (well, not enough to shift public opinion) believes it.  Nobody believes anybody, cries of fake news are everywhere and it really does not help when misguided journalists start making stuff up to further their own political beliefs, meanwhile politicians and their structures as we know them are powerless to resolve this.  My current thinking is that it's a bit naive to predict good or bad, we've had both situations while members of the EU and even going back before then (and yes, I am old enough to remember).  Life is not a bowl of roses it never has been and never will be.

The end result is that the majority of people are fed up with it and just want it all to go away, but the problem is that if democracy is to survive this, a democratic decision still has to be acted upon, or perhaps we need a new democracy that people can believe in (that is very scary).  It was foolishness of the highest order to have ever offered the referendum, but they did.  Nobody thought that people would vote the way they did, but they did.  Both significant parties are haemorrhaging support to the extent that both are on the verge of losing everything.  You've seen similar things happening in the US with Trump, but I see nothing but the same old politicians, doing the same old thing, have you really learnt nothing from the Trump fiasco; this bloke has a good chance to be re-elected?

Environment - must be a multinational issue and resolved at the highest level (i.e. UN), but nobody is going to act until some country falls off the edge of a cliff; you can see examples now of migratory pressures because of the desire for a better life, millions have made the move to central Europe; I think I can safely predict that we've seen nothing yet and I'll even go as far as to say that Scotland (and the rest of the UK) will not be immune to what happens; so I'm puzzled by the fascination with the country.

Open door policy - fantastic idea if everything was equal, people had the same religion, people spoke the same language, but it's not and they don't.  People have this bizarre notion that they hate where they live, so move to another country for the better life or better whatever, then, when they get there, try and change everything so that it's like the country they hated so much and left, or bring their family with them so it can be like it was back in the old country.  The end result is the indigenous population get fed up (ask your Red Indians) and start doing the traditional native carving where it hurts.  No, I firmly believe that we have to help countries help themselves, you don't do that by moving them all to your country; moving just the clever ones smacks of some kind of superiority.  Countries make immigration difficult or easy for a reason, not just to be awkward or downright nasty.

As for Jacobians; they caused enough problems in the UK already, I suggest you support another team ............... joke.

Here endeth the lesson.

Cynic
Yes, I'm really cynical.

Every expert under the sun has maintained that No Deal will be a disaster and unless you have a solution to import/ exports, air space and the Irish border it's pretty safe to say you are insane for thinking otherwise.

wakup wrote:

Every expert under the sun has maintained that No Deal will be a disaster and unless you have a solution to import/ exports, air space and the Irish border it's pretty safe to say you are insane for thinking otherwise.

No deal is going to be harder work for the UK - maybe
No deal will be a massive problem for the EU

The EU is a financial mess that can't even get its accounts signed off and, even worse, can't really afford the duff nations such as Greece and others. The money the EU takes from the UK keeps the Greece dept pseudo-loans serviced so, without the UK's cash, the EU is going to have serious issues to consider - Problems that could leave to Greece and others being kicked out, a possible start to a breakup of the EU.
Have a think; what do countries like Poland actually do for the EU?
They cost a fortune to keep as members, migrant workers take much needed jobs from workers in other countries and, other than political advantage, that country and a bunch of others add nothing to the pot.
When the British cash disappears, will the EU be able to afford them?
To give the clueless a hand, Poland takes even more from the EU than Greece does, and more than the UK's payments. If you were a German or French taxpayer, would you want to fund sponger nations with your tax Euros, taxes that will very probably have to be increased to fund sponging countries?
If taxes are increased, would you vote for the politicians that took your money?
If you have to pay more and see nothing for it, would you start calling for your country to exit the EU?

Daft political projects like airbus would be messed up by a no deal exit. Yes, a lot of British jobs could be lost but, without major parts from the UK, the rest of the manufacturing process is totally buggered so that's the end of airbus production until the UK built sections are replaced on the continent, something that could take years. Basically - there will be no problems because the EU can't afford to make trouble.

There are already strong exit groups in France and Germany but what happens when the UK's cash is lost from the EU? Other net contributor countries (Germany, France, and 7 other smaller ones) are going to have to fork out even more of their cash to cover the loss - Political problems a plenty there.
Britain's payments into the EU are second only to Germany and that massive loss, made somewhat worse by a no deal exit that would mean an immediate cessation of cash transfers, something that will hit the EU's finances in the same way a truck hits a rabbit.

No deal could well cause problems for the UK, but it's likely to be a biblical style disaster for the EU.

As for calls for an independent scotland becoming an An EU member - rubbish.
Even if they removed themselves from the UK, there's zero chance of admission into the EU because the European economy simply couldn't afford another drain on its already terrible finances.
The Scotish nationalists are 'pie in the sky' unthinking fools with plans a five year old could have scribbled in crayon on the back of a old electricity bill. Luckily that country has a very good whiskey industry because the'll need to get smashed out of their brains a lot if they gain independence - only way to take away the pain of what would happen if the SNP got its way.

wakup wrote:

Every expert under the sun has maintained that No Deal will be a disaster and unless you have a solution to import/ exports, air space and the Irish border it's pretty safe to say you are insane for thinking otherwise.

Hi again.

Just to lay my cards on the table.  I'm a dual national, married to a cloggy, speak 3 European languages and have lived and worked all over the world; the last 20 years as a UK regulator.  I don't like the European parliament and voted to leave when I was asked; it is unnecessary (in my opinion) to have another layer of Government/administration over what we already have as national governments, I would like to see less of it, not more.  But to answer the points you've raised:

Experts - not quite; some experts have indeed offered an explanation similar to yours, some others have not.

The top 3 UK imports into the UK come from Germany, the US and China; all those imports from non-EU countries already have an existing customs solution (SAD/C88 for commercial goods, C3 for personnel goods); there is no special holding area for imports from these countries; the vast majority of the items from non-EU countries are pre-cleared for Customs & Excise purposes.

Air space issues I suspect will have a massive dose of common sense applied once the politicians stop posturing.  I really can't see EU airlines being happy having to divert around the UK to get to the US/Canada, or their very expensive European hubs being denied a significant amount of their passenger footfall.

The Irish border is a weird issue; there are about 200 (ish) actual roads that cross the Irish border to/from the UK; only 7 of which have ever had any kind of regulatory presence; when I lived there (pre-EU), there was a cursory examination of goods and the stuff that people didn't want people to know about, or to pay tax on (mainly booze, cigarettes and fuel) got smuggled over one of the other 193 crossing points.  When I went back there 10 years ago, despite the EU and its open border, the number one activity along the border towns was still smuggling.  There are still the same checks going on (mainly VAT related stuff and waste controls), but these are done by computer via pre-notifications.  There will still be free-movement of Irish people across the UK border post Brexit; the cows that live in the fields straddling the border have voted unanimously to tell all of us to bugger-off and not to be so stupid.  Nobody managed to establish an effective border in the period 1922 > 1973, I suspect the same will still apply.  I've read recently in an EU journal (so it must have some basis in fact) that the EU has realised that they will have to establish a border between Ireland and the UK - good luck with that one because it's going to be a pretty one-sided activity.

Sanity (or lack of) is not exclusively in the remit of Brexiteers.

Just my cynical thoughts.

Unless you take your advice on Brexit from Tim Martin all of the above is nonsense. What EU laws can you all not wait to get rid of?

wakup wrote:

What EU laws can you all not wait to get rid of?

I'll go with the human rights rubbish that allowed Abu Hamza to avoid justice for years. He should have been deported back to the first country that wanted him regardless of what punishment he would face, but daft EU human rights crap stopped a dangerous terrorist being dumped.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jul … hts-ruling