Brexit and its implications for British, HU and any other citizens

fluffy2560 wrote:

Brexit update:
Bit of a nailbiter.  Don't miss it!

sounds like my mum and Corronation street

fluffy2560 wrote:

Brexit update:

Monday 23rd (that's tomorrow), we'll find out the answer from the UK Supreme Court.   Bit of a nailbiter.  Don't miss it!

One has to hope the EU hasn't bribed the judges

SimCityAT wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Brexit update:

Monday 23rd (that's tomorrow), we'll find out the answer from the UK Supreme Court.   Bit of a nailbiter.  Don't miss it!

Basically to hear for parliament to be recalled or not.

Not quite - that will happen but if it's recalled it means Boris misled Liz and he'll be stuffed.  And that means Corbyn has a chance as second in line to see Liz if he's able to wangle a coalition with the Lib Dems or someone else like the Tory remainers.  The upshot and price will be Clause 50 cancelled.  There's no majority to break the fixed term Parliament Act - needs 75% in favour.   BoJo could refuse to go on the grounds anything is better than Jeremy and the impasse will continue.  On the other hand, it Parliament may  put forward a cross party bill to cancel Brexit  indefinitely - at least until the politics are sorted.  That means no Brexit for several years.  On the other hand, if somehow an election occurs, Nigel Farage will almost certainly take all the votes from the Conservatives.

It could be almost as interesting as a World Cup final.

I'd lay the odds as:

SC in favour of BoJo: 4 to 1
SC in favour of Parliament: 6 to 1

The rest of the speculation is anyone's guess.  We need John Grisham or Armando Iannucci to write this one up.

FTPA does not apply to the Queens Speech.  Parliament is now closed and will reopen with a new session (Queens Speech); Queens Speech will include Brexit on 31 Oct, end of Queens Speech requires a vote of Parliament (simple majority - not 75%), Boris makes it a confidence issue; if the rebel Tories vote against it (many have joined Lib Dems) - et voila - General Election.

Quite clever really because all of the previous stuff aimed at stopping Brexit is not applicable to new Government.  It will either be Brexit on 31 October, or a General Election.

The fact is, if parliament ignores the will of the people, that means democracy in the UK is only applicable when MPs decide it is.
Tell me that isn't dangerous ground.

Cynic wrote:

FTPA does not apply to the Queens Speech.  Parliament is now closed and will reopen with a new session (Queens Speech); Queens Speech will include Brexit on 31 Oct, end of Queens Speech requires a vote of Parliament (simple majority - not 75%), Boris makes it a confidence issue; if the rebel Tories vote against it (many have joined Lib Dems) - et voila - General Election.

Quite clever really because all of the previous stuff aimed at stopping Brexit is not applicable to new Government.  It will either be Brexit on 31 October, or a General Election.

Yes, I got that wrong, it was 67%, not 75% but whatever it is, it's probably too far for Boris.

Queen's Speech and  FTPA are indeed alternate routes to an election.

SC probably would have something to say about this too.

Fred wrote:

The fact is, if parliament ignores the will of the people, that means democracy in the UK is only applicable when MPs decide it is.
Tell me that isn't dangerous ground.

But how else could it work then?  Easy to criticise but what else?   And who would want the electoral college nonsense in the USA.

The majority have effectively abrogated their accountability responsibilities to some semi-random person.     Apathetic non-voters definitely have to answer to someone too.   Protest voters should at least turn up and spoil their ballot.

The Swiss probably have the most direct voting system and it doesn't seem to have messed them up in the longer term.  They aren't perfect by any means and downright chauvinistic until fairly recently (yes, you Appenzell).

This is a direct question of if parliament is accountable to the people.
If so, they can't vote to revoke 50

Elections mean you entrust your political power to a given person, but a referendum is a direct expression of will.

I'm listening to radio four where a fella from Barnsley expressed his political opinion in true Yorkshire fashion - He said remain and Labour were B ll cks.

The long and the short is you either have democracy or you do not. The LibDems have proven their position is anti democracy, as have most of the Labour party and a few Tories.
Basically, voting for any MP that wants to revoke article 50 is a vote to destroy democracy in the UK, and that's reasonably likely to destroy both parties - and deservedly so.
I keep in touch with a lot of the lads in Yorkshire and I can tell you the mood towards the remain camp and Labour there.  Basically, Labour manifestos are likely to litter proctologists' operating room floors.

Fred wrote:

This is a direct question of if parliament is accountable to the people.
If so, they can't vote to revoke 50

Elections mean you entrust your political power to a given person, but a referendum is a direct expression of will.

I agree with the sentiment but that's not what the UK has - MPs vote according to their own bias.   The Swiss had a direct referendum on everything somewhere once and the entire place (might have been a canton) ground to a halt.   In some matters, like which day of the week the bins get emptied is not something people really need to vote on. 

The issue with voters are that many of them don't deserve to vote  -  As part of my evidence, I proffer documentary extract m'lud.

Fred wrote:

The long and the short is you either have democracy or you do not. The LibDems have proven their position is anti democracy, as have most of the Labour party and a few Tories.
Basically, voting for any MP that wants to revoke article 50 is a vote to destroy democracy in the UK, and that's reasonably likely to destroy both parties - and deservedly so.
I keep in touch with a lot of the lads in Yorkshire and I can tell you the mood towards the remain camp and Labour there.  Basically, Labour manifestos are likely to litter proctologists' operating room floors.

It's extremism everywhere - as of this morning Corbyn wants to nationalise everything.  Yeah, sure, that's a vote winner.   We already had communism and that failed and killed a lot of people. Not an original thought in their heads.   

I think there won't be any choice but to postpone (not cancel) as there's political impasse. The government has to be able to run the country and it cannot move on elsewhere with Brexit in the way.  It's blocking everything, including worthwhile stuff.

LBC said that SC might issue a verdict this evening or tomorrow.

Labour are infighting in the same way banjo players interbreed and accidentally become the thing you most remember about a film - the rhubarb their lot are spouting this morning about revocation without a referendum just proving they have no ruddy idea what that would cost them in their powerbases everywhere except London and some bits of Scotland.
The Tories won't do great but the Brexit party must be laughing their socks off at how stupid the libdems and Labour are.  Old Boris is very likely to be forced into a deal with Brexit if things carry on this way, but the other two parties are probably going to be naffed for years.
The up or downside, depending on how you feel politically, is there's very likely to be a right wing Tory government for ten next ten years as the Brexit party are a single policy party so have no place or direction after October (or whenever).

So not today. Tomorrow 10.30am BST all will be revealed.

Although all may have been screwed up by Corbyn winning the vote not to campaign for Remain in the next Election; the Labour Remainers are very unhappy at the moment.

Cynic wrote:

Although all may have been screwed up by Corbyn winning the vote not to campaign for Remain in the next Election; the Labour Remainers are very unhappy at the moment.

I will make no attempt to hide my loathing for Labour, a position I developed when I was a Labour party member a lot of years ago. Membership of that party and a mild political activism of the time allowed me an insight as to how the set of mindless morons of that party's left work, and it's nothing short of ruddy dangerous. It took me about a year of meetings and so on to see just how bad they were, and what their real objectives are ... a set of ideals with absolutely no hope of working in real life, but would totally destroy any country they were enacted in. That extremist core has never gone away but is getting slowly more powerful under Corbyn's leadership.
That time allowed a young, handsome, and idealist fool to grow up and see the truth of what that dangerous lot would do to any country they gained power in so I did a runner and disappeared. I realised, even at that relatively young age, indoctrination into the ultra left, and that's what that bunch were up to, wasn't for this sexy young chap. However, I have to thank a raving Marxist nutter called Kaplan  (spelling?) from South Africa for that experience and the invaluable life lesson of how to avoid getting sucked into extremist stupidity. That's stayed with me ever since so 'Thank you' to that moronic little extremist bar steward for your help in insuring I would never be taken in by radical fools of any sort.
Seriously, you have to see the raw version the party try to keep away from TV screens before you see how bad they are in reality.
That, of course, is of direct issue to Brexit as the far left fight for control of the Labour party and try to impose their will over, and directly against, the will of the people as expressed in the referendum.

Cynic wrote:

Although all may have been screwed up by Corbyn winning the vote not to campaign for Remain in the next Election; the Labour Remainers are very unhappy at the moment.

I dunno what was going on there - looked like the chair was saying one thing, a panel saying another and the JC barged in and issued an edict.  He also showed some annoyance even hysteria at the press presence at the party conference.  Not the side we normally see of that guy.   JC and Labour haven't got a chance of getting into power. 

On LBC, there was Brexit Party candidate on and he was super confident and very calm and measured. 

SC case going against BoJo could destroy the Tories for a generation and the  Brexit Party will storm it.  I used to like Farage but I've gone off him as he's started being an extremist.  Easy to fall - look at Rees-Mogg, in some people's eyes, from hero to zero in a few days.  We never hear from him now.

Interesting point heard this morning is that if the SC rules against BoJo, prorogation never actually happened and Parliament is still in place as if nothing happened.  It's going to be a special moment!

fluffy2560 wrote:

.... Interesting point heard this morning is that if the SC rules against BoJo, prorogation never actually happened and Parliament is still in place as if nothing happened.  It's going to be a special moment!

Unless BJ prorogues it again; there is nothing illegal about prorogation as is, it's part of the Parliamentary process.

Cynic wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

.... Interesting point heard this morning is that if the SC rules against BoJo, prorogation never actually happened and Parliament is still in place as if nothing happened.  It's going to be a special moment!

Unless BJ prorogues it again; there is nothing illegal about prorogation as is, it's part of the Parliamentary process.

True but multiple levels there.

If it's illegal what BoJo did on the basis that it was subterfuge,  then nothing happened and Parliament is back.

If he does it again, he'd have to explain why he is engaging prorogation once more and not just planning on doing the same thing again and again.

I think I'll be watching this live.

And the verdict is in!

BoJo's prorogation was unlawful.

Speaker will decide what happens next, i.e. Parliament to return (not reconvene as it was never suspended).

Incredible! Interesting times.

The speaker has already shown bias so we can say parliament will return. BJ's move next

Fred wrote:

The speaker has already shown bias so we can say parliament will return. BJ's move next

I think Boris will brazenly try to bluff his way past it.  It was a unanimous verdict and therefore there cannot be any doubt.     

Bercow is still speaker as he said he'd go later but I think he might just say, nah, that was then, this is now and keep on in the job.

Weird times.

The speaker should never openly support any side but he's crossed the line so has to go.

As for the ruling, of course Boris did it to stop parliament, but parliament was trying to stop the will of the majority so they're fair game.
Lord Haw Haw ended up with a noose around his neck for less than that bunch are up to.

Fred wrote:

As for the ruling, of course Boris did it to stop parliament, but parliament was trying to stop the will of the majority so they're fair game.
Lord Haw Haw ended up with a noose around his neck for less than that bunch are up to.

If there was a 2nd referendum - a confirmatory referendum - and it went the other way. that'd be the will of the people too. 

Citing Haw Haw isn't really adding much.   Needs more analysis to show the parallels otherwise it's just invoking Godwin's Law.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

As for the ruling, of course Boris did it to stop parliament, but parliament was trying to stop the will of the majority so they're fair game.
Lord Haw Haw ended up with a noose around his neck for less than that bunch are up to.

If there was a 2nd referendum - a confirmatory referendum - and it went the other way. that'd be the will of the people too. 

Citing Haw Haw isn't really adding much.   Needs more analysis to show the parallels otherwise it's just invoking Godwin's Law.

2nd? You mean a 3rd!!

If a new referendum was held and that said remain, that's that, but exit could then use all the dirty tricks remain are using at the moment.
Politics in the UK is now an utter mess that will take a long time to sort out and full democracy is a dead duck.
What's next - don't like a general election result so keep having new ones until they get the 'correct' answer?
May was nothing short of rubbish, Boris took a big gamble against Eurobribes but pocket lining won the day, and the remain lot have shown they don't give a fat rat's arse about what the electorate thinks.
Add the EU's attempts to stop Brexit, thus proving they are more than happy to stop British democracy when it comes to losing their seat on the gravy train, and that about wipes the poop on the bog roll.

SimCityAT wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

As for the ruling, of course Boris did it to stop parliament, but parliament was trying to stop the will of the majority so they're fair game.
Lord Haw Haw ended up with a noose around his neck for less than that bunch are up to.

If there was a 2nd referendum - a confirmatory referendum - and it went the other way. that'd be the will of the people too. 

Citing Haw Haw isn't really adding much.   Needs more analysis to show the parallels otherwise it's just invoking Godwin's Law.

2nd? You mean a 3rd!!

Given how well the Brexit party did in the last election, very probably.
Pity there wasn't a vote about entering the EU, but that's democracy of the wallet for you.

SimCityAT wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

As for the ruling, of course Boris did it to stop parliament, but parliament was trying to stop the will of the majority so they're fair game.
Lord Haw Haw ended up with a noose around his neck for less than that bunch are up to.

If there was a 2nd referendum - a confirmatory referendum - and it went the other way. that'd be the will of the people too. 

Citing Haw Haw isn't really adding much.   Needs more analysis to show the parallels otherwise it's just invoking Godwin's Law.

2nd? You mean a 3rd!!

Haha, yes you are right, 1 x referendum plus 1 x election plus confirmatory.....

There are noises coming out of Labour strongholds in many areas of the country, and not just after eating too many mushy peas.

The LibDems are despised as fence sitting pointless fools - as usual
The Tories have never been forgiven for the miners' strike
Labour is about as popular as a very unpopular thing in an area that used to like them but now thinks they're a bunch of soft pillocks.
The Brexit party are very popular and are very likely to do well in a general election.

This utter poopfest is going to give a lot of MPs something to think about, including finding the best proctologists so they can get their manifestos removed after knocking on doors in Barnsley.

Breaking news: Boris Johnson disagrees with the verdict and is unhappy with it.


Well, no sh^t

What Labour and the LibDems are doing is a massive mistake, they're looking at London gobs and assuming that's the power - They're so far wrong it's epic.

Fred wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

If there was a 2nd referendum - a confirmatory referendum - and it went the other way. that'd be the will of the people too. 

Citing Haw Haw isn't really adding much.   Needs more analysis to show the parallels otherwise it's just invoking Godwin's Law.

2nd? You mean a 3rd!!

Given how well the Brexit party did in the last election, very probably.
Pity there wasn't a vote about entering the EU, but that's democracy of the wallet for you.

There WAS a vote back in 1975.  I remember it!  I don't quite remember as much argument then as now but I was on the edge of being an age where I might of cared.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

2nd? You mean a 3rd!!

Given how well the Brexit party did in the last election, very probably.
Pity there wasn't a vote about entering the EU, but that's democracy of the wallet for you.

There WAS a vote back in 1975.  I remember it!  I don't quite remember as much argument then as now but I was on the edge of being an age where I might of cared.

A vote for the EEC or EU? There was never a vote to enter the EU.

Fred wrote:

There are noises coming out of Labour strongholds in many areas of the country, and not just after eating too many mushy peas.

The LibDems are despised as fence sitting pointless fools - as usual
The Tories have never been forgiven for the miners' strike
Labour is about as popular as a very unpopular thing in an area that used to like them but now thinks they're a bunch of soft pillocks.
The Brexit party are very popular and are very likely to do well in a general election.

This utter poopfest is going to give a lot of MPs something to think about, including finding the best proctologists so they can get their manifestos removed after knocking on doors in Barnsley.

Labour's Marxist agenda is going to alienate huge numbers of voters.  No chance with that stupidity.

Lib Dems have never been forgiven for the stitch up over the student fees. But they could end up holding the reins by default.   Everyone forgets about that being Labour's doing and Clegg rolling over.   

Brexit Party will be the new Tories.

Fred wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

Given how well the Brexit party did in the last election, very probably.
Pity there wasn't a vote about entering the EU, but that's democracy of the wallet for you.

There WAS a vote back in 1975.  I remember it!  I don't quite remember as much argument then as now but I was on the edge of being an age where I might of cared.

A vote for the EEC or EU? There was never a vote to enter the EU.

Splitting hairs - it's morphed into the EU via the treaties...

EEC Referendum of 1975 meant being in the EU

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

2nd? You mean a 3rd!!

Given how well the Brexit party did in the last election, very probably.
Pity there wasn't a vote about entering the EU, but that's democracy of the wallet for you.

There WAS a vote back in 1975.  I remember it!  I don't quite remember as much argument then as now but I was on the edge of being an age where I might of cared.

We were dragged out on parade and marched off to a room where we were told to vote; oh the fun of being in the Armed Forces in Northern Ireland.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

There WAS a vote back in 1975.  I remember it!  I don't quite remember as much argument then as now but I was on the edge of being an age where I might of cared.

A vote for the EEC or EU? There was never a vote to enter the EU.

Splitting hairs - it's morphed into the EU via the treaties...

EEC Referendum of 1975 meant being in the EU

That argument is invalid as the vote was for or against the common market, not what it would morph into some years later.
There was never a vote to take the UK into the EU.

Fred wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

A vote for the EEC or EU? There was never a vote to enter the EU.

Splitting hairs - it's morphed into the EU via the treaties...

EEC Referendum of 1975 meant being in the EU

That argument is invalid as the vote was for or against the common market, not what it would morph into some years later.
There was never a vote to take the UK into the EU.

Well, you have something of a point except:

* EEC and mostly the EU was the same until they started to establish superstate features

* We didn't see this level of opposition to the EU during the various treaties expanding it - everyone rolled over

* The treaties were agreed by the government of the day consisting of elected politicians

* Treaties were ratified by Parliament (and therefore by the "people" - ok, I know a stretch)

Maybe we're back to the same questions - are you in favour of the "EU" (or EEC) as trading block Fred?