Brexit and its implications for British, HU and any other citizens

Ukranian jet update:

Ukrainian jet was 'unintentionally' shot down

It's no real compensation to the families but damages against the Iranian state will run into hundreds of millions USD, all taken from frozen assets.  US paid $132M approx for shooting down Iran Air 655.

Wildly off topic of Brexit.

Unintentional?  Someone, somewhere, consciously pressed a button.

Cynic wrote:

Unintentional?  Someone, somewhere, consciously pressed a button.

Maybe they spilt coffee on the control panel.

Also the subject of a movie I remember watching when I was a kid.  Hmm....might watch that one again.

I suspect not, military systems (especially Russian ones) are designed to be operated by the lowest form of life on the gun park who probably doesn't understand the Cyrillic alphabet that all the labels on the controls are permanently marked in and is more interested in knowing if he's going to get fed in the next 48 hours than he is much else.  My experience of many middle-eastern armed forces is that it's much more important to have shiny tanks, guns and lots of flags etc than it is to appropriately train the crews.

At least it's clear now - Not that's much good tot he dead and their families, but at least it's clear.
I wonder what the US will say about this considering their previous on the subject.

Fred wrote:

At least it's clear now - Not that's much good tot he dead and their families, but at least it's clear.
I wonder what the US will say about this considering their previous on the subject.

Apart from giving away all the Iranian money currently sat in confiscated bank accounts, probably not a lot.

Fred wrote:

At least it's clear now - Not that's much good tot he dead and their families, but at least it's clear.
I wonder what the US will say about this considering their previous on the subject.

They'll say nothing of course.  The US got what it wanted out of it.  Trump looks good to his base and gets his election points for killing a a$$hole terrorist, the Iranian government continues to look bad and the people in between - the ordinary Iranians and relatives of the victims on the plane get to mourn in their role as as collateral damage in one way or another.   

I expect though Trump is biding his time - if he gets re-elected, then he's going to take them on, unless the Iranians bring in the Russians whereupon possibly job done for Donald Trump Putinovich, another tick in the box for cousin Vlad.

I notice a bit of a PR thing going on this morning to say it was all "tragic accident".  Only thing is that it wasn't - it all leads back to Trump.    It's a bit like the "rogue agents" who chopped up that guy in the Saudi embassy, it goes back to the guy holding the reins of power. 

Maybe the chief missile button pusher and the underlings will have already been dispatched.   No witnesses.

Well if Trumpty dumpty hadn't ordered the killing of general Qasem Soleimani.........

SimCityAT wrote:

Well if Trumpty dumpty hadn't ordered the killing of general Qasem Soleimani.........

He will almost certainly say that Soleimani would have ordered the death of the thousands of American and British servicemen ....... or so the story will go.  I suspect that during the campaign, some previously classified information will become unclassified and released to the world (the CinC can do this); proving a, that Trump can be trusted not to send classified information (unlike Clinton previously) and b, that Trump saved thousands of lives in his action.  Funny old world innit.

Interesting story going around that the Ayatollahs may have had something to do with the demise of Soleimani.  Apparently he was getting too big for his boots and was threatening regime change with the IRGC replacing the current lot.

Cynic wrote:

Interesting story going around....

Really? And the source of this "story" is? If no serious source, no "story". Then it is just old fashioned gossip.

And there is very old fashioned saying about gossip:

"Believe Nothing You Hear, and Only One Half That You See"

Most likely from Edgar Allen Poe.

The modern equivalent should be:

"Don't believe anything you read online."

Trying to create chaos is the entire point of non-information. Or to use another old phrase, spreading FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt).

Cynic wrote:

Interesting story going around that the Ayatollahs may have had something to do with the demise of Soleimani.  Apparently he was getting too big for his boots and was threatening regime change with the IRGC replacing the current lot.

I can believe that.    I bet someone is mapping the whole thing out now.   

Someone tipped off the US about him being at the airport or he just didn't believe anyone let alone DT was going to order the military to carry out a hit against him on "friendly" Iraqi soil.  I expect things have changed radically in the Iranian hierarchy.  They  will all be sleeping in bunkers or safe houses.  There's a shedload of movies going to come out of this.

klsallee wrote:

Cynic wrote:

Interesting story going around....

Really: And the source of this "story" is?

There is very old saying:

"Believe Nothing You Hear, and Only One Half That You See"

Most likely from Edgar Allen Poe.

The modern equivalent should be:

"Don't believe anything you read online."

Trying to create chaos is the entire point of non-information. Or to use another old phrase, spreading FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt).

It's what they call "disinformation" which obviously goes back eons.  My fave is Operation Mincemeat

What we're really doing here is speculating which on a more formal basis is called scenario planning. 

It's a bit of a mental exercise and has somewhat of liberating nature because it's doing things "freestyle".  But it's not quite gossip!

fluffy2560 wrote:

It's a bit of a mental exercise and has somewhat of liberating nature because it's doing things "freestyle".  But it's not quite gossip!

Hm.

If you say so. It is your thread. You are in charge of what is allowed.

But, IMHO, as someone who deals with IT, IM (Information Management) and KM (Knowledge Management), not nicking disinformation nonsense in the bud right when it comes up will come back to haunt you*. As we see all too well theses days....   

*Yes, I saw your comment. Bravo for nicking the bud, 

klsallee wrote:

Cynic wrote:

Interesting story going around....

Really? And the source of this "story" is? If no serious source, no "story". Then it is just old fashioned gossip.

And there is very old fashioned saying about gossip:

"Believe Nothing You Hear, and Only One Half That You See"

Most likely from Edgar Allen Poe.

The modern equivalent should be:

"Don't believe anything you read online."

Trying to create chaos is the entire point of non-information. Or to use another old phrase, spreading FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt).

Yeah, kind of why I called it a "story" and not a "fact".  Perhaps a bit more time reading what people actually say instead of what you hope they are saying.

fluffy2560 wrote:

klsallee wrote:

Cynic wrote:

Interesting story going around....

Really: And the source of this "story" is?

There is very old saying:

"Believe Nothing You Hear, and Only One Half That You See"

Most likely from Edgar Allen Poe.

The modern equivalent should be:

"Don't believe anything you read online."

Trying to create chaos is the entire point of non-information. Or to use another old phrase, spreading FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt).

It's what they call "disinformation" which obviously goes back eons.  My fave is Operation Mincemeat

What we're really doing here is speculating which on a more formal basis is called scenario planning. 

It's a bit of a mental exercise and has somewhat of liberating nature because it's doing things "freestyle".  But it's not quite gossip!

Absolutely; stories can be of many colours, the significant difference between what you get online and what you get from a book is that the latter gives you a clue as to whether its a work of fiction, on-line it never does, so you have to make up your own mind based on what the guy may have reported in the past, or perhaps your own life experiences.

Odd

The UK ambassador to Iran was arrested and held, but what the devil was he doing at an anti-government protest?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51077897

Smells like a set up

Edit - That or he's a blithering idiot.

Fred wrote:

Odd

The UK ambassador to Iran was arrested and held, but what the devil was he doing at an anti-government protest?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51077897

Smells like a set up

Edit - That or he's a blithering idiot.

The BBC is reporting that the ambassador had attended a vigil for those who died (some were Brits); when the vigil became a protest, the ambassador left the area but was arrested on his way home.

Arrested in a barbers, so the British government claim. Odd that in a country like Iran, the ambassador wasn't in an official diplomatic car with his security detail, but the UK dude in Jakarta always uses his.
I don't believe a word of the official story.

Saying that, the ambassador might be a total and utter clueless moron, because that''s the only reason he'd be there if it wasn't a set up.

klsallee wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

It's a bit of a mental exercise and has somewhat of liberating nature because it's doing things "freestyle".  But it's not quite gossip!

Hm.

If you say so. It is your thread. You are in charge of what is allowed.

But, IMHO, as someone who deals with IT, IM (Information Management) and KM (Knowledge Management), not nicking disinformation nonsense in the bud right when it comes up will come back to haunt you*. As we see all too well theses days....   

*Yes, I saw your comment. Bravo for nicking the bud, 

Depends what you're working on.   

If you're looking at strategy, you might be thinking 10-20 or more years ahead, then you'd have had to try and predict the rise of social media, fake news, global warming, the re-emergence of fascism, Islamic State, Trump and the withdrawal from the world stage of the US as an international power or even Brexit.  I don't remember any  of this being on the radar even 10 years ago. 

If you look at "big IT" systems, the rule of thumb lifespan is about 7 years although of course, many go on much longer with subsequent support difficulties thereafter.  I'd expect at least consideration of replacement leading up to Year 5, decision point in Year  5, replacement or upgrade by end of Year 7 or maybe within year 8 (i.e. 24 months programme)  Some Suppliers (yes, you know who you are Oracle and maybe SAP) create upgrades which are so expensive, the decision becomes clear - struggle on through an upgrade or simply replace.  Having been corporately stabbed in the back by them on several occasions I usually recommend not using Oracle products unless you're someone like a large government with very deep pockets.   

I'm predicting in the next 20 years: discovery of goldilocks planets with life  bearing potential,  proof of parallel universes, improved space travel (mainly shorter trips to Mars and the Moon), cure for most cancers, age extending gene therapy, alternate climate friendly energy sources, break up of the EU, collapse of Iran, religious beliefs at an all time low except in the USA, near sentient AI, Russia moves to full time dictatorship, North and South Korea merge.

Fred wrote:

Saying that, the ambassador might be a total and utter clueless moron, because that''s the only reason he'd be there if it wasn't a set up.

Oh, that's a bit disingenuous,

I'll have you know that not all Ambassadors are morons, some of them are paid up professional f**kwits.

The US Ambassador to the UK,  Woody Woodpecker,  is a complete twit who should mind his own business.

Iran's foreign office has summoned the UK ambassador because he attended an illegal rally. Personally, I think he was a bloody idiot, but it could have been a set up

https://ifpnews.com/iran-summons-uk-amb … egal-rally

Just by way of a note, he admits attending, but excuses himself by saying he thought it was a memorial service. That makes him either inept or stupid.
Either way, he should be sacked as an ambassador.

Fred wrote:

Just by way of a note, he admits attending, but excuses himself by saying he thought it was a memorial service. That makes him either inept or stupid.
Either way, he should be sacked as an ambassador.

Nah, he was OK to be there if it was a vigil, he was there because UK nationals died.   Doesn't really matter because he's got diplomatic status.  They had to let him go in the end so ended without any real fuss.  Storm in a teacup.

One would hope in the wake of all this the Iranians will engage in some positive PR and release all the others being held hostage.  Probably what it shows more is that the Iranian leaders are not in charge of the entire govt.

Moved from ....Absolutely Anything Else

SimCityAT wrote:

I will try and dig up the info about entering and leaving and how much time left on the passport.

Passports is 6 month validity. 

Queues, who knows!

I suspect that they'll introduce UK usage of the scanners in Europe if only to ease pressure at the airport and vice-versa but the 90 days in 180 days rule is bad news for free flow of relatives. Then there's that ETIAS rubbish for 2021.  I was on the plane Saturday and it was full up as usual.  It'll mean heavy queues at the borders. I've already seen huge queues in Frankfurt and pretty bad ones in Budapest.   It's a BB scenario - Brexit Ballsup

Here you are Fluffy

YouTube Video that Explains it all Can You Still Travel After the Brexit Deadline on Friday?

So, no change in the UK until the end of the year.

Cynic wrote:

So, no change in the UK until the end of the year.

Yep

The next significant milestone will be how the markets react on Friday night.

SimCityAT wrote:

Here you are Fluffy

YouTube Video that Explains it all Can You Still Travel After the Brexit Deadline on Friday?

Thanks, very useful but still doesn't answer my main question which is if DLs are exchangeable on the same basis as  pre-Brexit.   And my other question - can I use the e-gates everywhere?

You'd hope HMG would redo all it's advice as so much of it online seems to be seeding confusion.

I am sure Simon Calder is not one person but multiple clones. That guy looks like the only travel guru in the world and appears across all TV and radio channels and even in newspapers.

I managed to find this guidance from the EU on the e-gates:

EU Brexit Fact Sheet

Summarised here (with my highlighting/emphasis):

"UK citizens travelling to EU

UK citizens visiting Ireland will continue to enjoy free movement in accordance with the Common Travel Area arrangements between Ireland and the UK.

Visa free travel will be allowed for up to 90 days in a 180 day period in Schengen countries. This will include non-Schengen EU countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus and Romania) as the same rules are applied at their external borders. Time in a non-Schengen country does not count towards the 90 day limit in Schengen.

UK citizens must have 6 months validity remaining on their passport when arriving in Schengen countries and any additional months added over 10 years may not count. For non-Schengen countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus and Romania), 3 months after intended departure is required. UK Government has a website tool to check if a passport will be valid here.

UK will become a ‘third country' of the EU and therefore UK citizens may be subject to extra entry checks at the EU border. Questions asked by border officials may include purpose and itinerary of stay and evidence of subsistence.

UK citizens will not be allowed to use entry lanes at the EU border reserved for citizens from EU/EEA/CH countries. Each member country can decide whether the UK will have their own entry lane or be required to join lanes with other non-EU countries.

UK citizens will be subject to ETIAS when introduced by the EU from 2021 for non-EU visa waiver countries. The fee will be €7 per person valid for 3 years and allow multiple entries."

I expect some level of evilness post-Brexit at the borders with most EU countries flexing their muscles and wanting to stick the boot in on the nasty British for leaving a sinking ship.  Going through EU customs on direct flights I expect everyone to be given a through roasting and hassling.

But I also expect after the thing has calmed down that they'll go back to using the e-gates on a reciprocal basis.  Imagine in Spain, there will be 1000s of people in the queues.

It seems also immigration is not as much of a driver as it was - according tothis researchmention of it has dropped from 48% to 13%:

"Since the EU Referendum in June 2016, however, immigration has been mentioned by far fewer people, falling from 48% in June 2016 to 13% in November 2019."

Which is a year old and before a deal was made. A deal has been made so this fact sheet is out of date.

SimCityAT wrote:

Which is a year old and before a deal was made. A deal has been made so this fact sheet is out of date.

Yes, I did see it was dated last year and I did think twice.  On the other hand, I got the link from the European Tour Operators Association's web site which must be pretty up to date as it's their core business and they cannot afford to be disengaged from it. They must (surely) be more informed than any of us (or come to think of it, HMG).

But one thing pretty that paper covers that I was concerned about....

"UK citizens will not be allowed to use entry lanes at the EU border reserved for citizens from EU/EEA/CH countries. Each member country can decide whether the UK will have their own entry lane or be required to join lanes with other non-EU countries."

So, yes, we have to join (probably) the unworthy shufflers and beg entry from the Schengen overseers.  I believe the Blue Lanes in Blighty will be removed.

On that ETOA web site, there's some stuff about vehicles too:

"Road Licences / Insurance

Mutual recognition of driving licences by EU member states will no longer automatically apply to UK licence holders.

UK licence holders can check whether an International Driving Permit (IDP) is required here for a European country. If applicable, an IDP can be purchased from Post Offices.

EU licence holders will not require an IDP to drive in the UK.

A UK trailer may need to be registered before being towed in some European countries. Further information is available here.

A green card (proof of insurance) will be required for UK licence holders travelling to the EU and EU licence holders travelling to the UK. A green card can be obtained from insurance companies and one month's notice is recommended to be given. If the vehicle is towing a trailer, an additional green card for the trailer may be required.

UK vehicles will need to display a GB sticker on the rear of the vehicle when travelling in the EU (except in Ireland), even if the registration plate has a GB identifier."

I don't have a UK registered car any more and haven't had one for some years but my relatives do but it's probably not important. Most of them want to come by plane these days.  And they need a car, they hire one and presumably will need a IDP when they do it.   

You'd think this IDP thing and using the e-gates would have been sorted out easily in the "deal".

fluffy2560 wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

Which is a year old and before a deal was made. A deal has been made so this fact sheet is out of date.

Yes, I did see it was dated last year and I did think twice.  On the other hand, I got the link from the European Tour Operators Association's web site which must be pretty up to date as it's their core business and they cannot afford to be disengaged from it. They must (surely) be more informed than any of us (or come to think of it, HMG).

But one thing pretty that paper covers that I was concerned about....

"UK citizens will not be allowed to use entry lanes at the EU border reserved for citizens from EU/EEA/CH countries. Each member country can decide whether the UK will have their own entry lane or be required to join lanes with other non-EU countries."

So, yes, we have to join (probably) the unworthy shufflers and beg entry from the Schengen overseers.  I believe the Blue Lanes in Blighty will be removed.

On that ETOA web site, there's some stuff about vehicles too:

"Road Licences / Insurance

Mutual recognition of driving licences by EU member states will no longer automatically apply to UK licence holders.

UK licence holders can check whether an International Driving Permit (IDP) is required here for a European country. If applicable, an IDP can be purchased from Post Offices.

EU licence holders will not require an IDP to drive in the UK.

A UK trailer may need to be registered before being towed in some European countries. Further information is available here.

A green card (proof of insurance) will be required for UK licence holders travelling to the EU and EU licence holders travelling to the UK. A green card can be obtained from insurance companies and one month's notice is recommended to be given. If the vehicle is towing a trailer, an additional green card for the trailer may be required.

UK vehicles will need to display a GB sticker on the rear of the vehicle when travelling in the EU (except in Ireland), even if the registration plate has a GB identifier."

I don't have a UK registered car any more and haven't had one for some years but my relatives do but it's probably not important. Most of them want to come by plane these days.  And they need a car, they hire one and presumably will need a IDP when they do it.   

You'd think this IDP thing and using the e-gates would have been sorted out easily in the "deal".

This is all after the transition period.

SimCityAT wrote:

This is all after the transition period.

What is the transition period? Can you provide both agreed EU and UK documents to confirm what exactly this is for individuals? Traveling between the UK and the EU? And internationally?

klsallee wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

This is all after the transition period.

What is the transition period? Can you provide both agreed EU and UK documents to confirm what exactly this is for individuals? Traveling between the UK and the EU? And internationally?

Hot off the press (just announced) that new EU laws will not apply in the UK from 23:00 Friday 31 Jan 2020.  The transition period is currently from then (or midnight Brussels time) until 31 Dec 2020, unless an agreement is reached sooner than that (highly unlikely).  As far as travel is concerned, nothing will change at least until 31 Dec 2020.  You can continue to use all the queues and gates you used up until then.


Addendum - the "hot news" that was announced, was by the Daily Express, so should be treated with caution.

Cynic wrote:

klsallee wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

This is all after the transition period.

What is the transition period? Can you provide both agreed EU and UK documents to confirm what exactly this is for individuals? Traveling between the UK and the EU? And internationally?

Hot off the press (just announced) that new EU laws will not apply in the UK from 23:00 Friday 31 Jan 2020.  The transition period is currently from then (or midnight Brussels time) until 31 Dec 2020, unless an agreement is reached sooner than that (highly unlikely).  As far as travel is concerned, nothing will change at least until 31 Dec 2020.  You can continue to use all the queues and gates you used up until then.


Addendum - the "hot news" that was announced, was by the Daily Express, so should be treated with caution.

I don't believe it. Border controls are responsibility of the member states. I think we'll have to go in the non-EU queues and cannot use the e-gates. 

But it's really difficult to find out any facts. I'm looking at airport sites like Munich and Frankfurt and I cannot see anything about it. I also tried to look at various MoFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) web sites and there's nothing there as of couple of days ago.

Maybe you've got a link to the Daily Express web site?

EU law is folded into UK law so nothing changes until after that snapshot. HMG is somewhat gleefully saying it will diverge from EU law.  I expect - for example - HMG to save FlyBe (up yours O'Leary) as there's nothing to stop HMG giving state aid to whoever it wants.  Also all the foreign fishing boats will have to leave. That's a tiny revenue base but somehow disproportionately blown up in economic importance.

Daily Express website

There is always the old adage of if you put a farmer in a policeman's uniform, he's still a farmer.  I used to work clearing cargo between France (Chamonix) and Italy (Courmayeur), I got to know the Gendarmes and Carabinieri who ran the border crossing at Mont Blanc pretty well, you'd never get the same answer to the same question, or they would ask for a different piece of paper to what they asked for last time.  The standards of the border police tend to vary from country to country, but the farmer rule always applies.