Sunak government's latest move to tighten the screws
Another setback for potential expatriates. The British government is reeling from the recent Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, revealing a record-low net migration of 745,000 in 2022. As of the end of June 2023, according to the ONS, 1,180,000 immigrants were planning to stay in the country for at least a year, and around 508,000 departures were scheduled. Consequently, net immigration has considerably declined, reaching 672,000 by the end of 2023.
Nevertheless, the government probably wasn't hoping for these figures. The drop in migration isn't that significant and falls short of the expectations set by Brexit. Many Britons voted to leave the European Union (EU) with the understanding that migration levels would be significantly impacted. Rishi Sunak, a supporter of Brexit who actively campaigned for it, still supports the measure. However, he considers the current immigration level "too high."
The universal points-based visa system, implemented right after the UK's departure from the EU, was designed to better regulate the arrival of expatriates. The government plans to introduce additional measures in the spring of 2024 to further restrict new arrivals. It's worth noting that the points-based visa system was initially introduced in 2008 but focused solely on non-EU expatriates. The Conservative government expanded its applicability to include all foreign nationals following Brexit.
New rules to reduce immigration
Starting in 2024, one of the fresh regulations involves the necessity of having a job offer with a high salary to be eligible for a work visa. Additionally, the health surcharge is set to increase once more, and employers will no longer be able to pay foreigners below the minimum threshold.
Job offer and minimum wage
Until now, foreigners had to earn a minimum wage of at least £26,200 a year. From 2024, they will have to earn at least £38,700, i.e., almost 50% more. The measure does not affect the health and social services professions. However, these sectors are subject to other restrictions: they will no longer be able to bring in their families (dependent visas).
Students and dependents
Students are now in the government's focus. Despite appeals for restraint from universities, the authorities are determined to deny them the right to bring their families, with only a few exceptions. In the past year, ending in September 2023, a total of 486,107 student visas and 152,980 dependent visas were issued. The term "dependents" includes spouses, civil partners, and children under 18.
Starting in the spring of 2024, international students, except third-cycle "research program" students, will no longer be able to bring their families. Other foreigners will have to pay more to bring their families. They will have to earn a minimum of $38,700 annually for a family visa, compared with $18,600 currently. Approximately 70,000 people utilized this visa to come to the UK this year (as of June 2023), and the government aims to reduce this number.
Points-based visa
The points-based visa system will be tightened to further filter applicants. Applicants will now be required to accumulate the initial 50 points out of 70 based on their English proficiency and a job offer surpassing the minimum skill level. The remaining 20 points will be determined by factors such as salary (meeting the new threshold), job position (whether it is on the list of jobs in short supply), and qualifications (holding a deemed "relevant" doctorate).
Increase in IHS
In July 2023, the Sunak government declared its intention to raise the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), the yearly fee granting foreigners access to healthcare. Gradually increasing since its establishment in 2015, it should reach $1,035 in 2024, a significant jump from $624 in 2023 and the initial $200 in 2015.
Jobs in tension and minimum wage
Until then, employers could pay employees in sectors in tension 80% of the standard rate. This practice, denounced by Labour as "discount work," enabled employers to pay foreign workers below the expected wage, making them more cost-effective than British workers. This measure should expire in spring 2024. Additionally, the government plans to reduce the number of short-stay occupations, as these trades benefited from more flexible immigration rules.
Net migration trends in the UK
Back in 2012, the Conservative Cameron government's policy resulted in a record-low net immigration figure of 161,000, a level not seen since the 2000s. The objective then was to further tighten migration policies to achieve a net migration balance of less than 100,000. Commercials portrayed a less-than-ideal United Kingdom to discourage potential expatriates. However, net migration began to rise again, reaching 208,000 in 2013 and 249,000 in 2017 (according to figures from Statista).
Net migration has been on the rise since 2016, the year of the Brexit referendum. However, there's a notable decline in the number of European immigrants seeking the British experience. In 2019, there were around 70,000 new European immigrants, compared to over 200,000 non-European immigrants. Following the Covid pandemic and its restrictions, where net migration dropped below 100,000, the figures began to rise again, reaching 504,000 between June 2021 and June 2022—an increase of 331,000 individuals compared to the previous year (figures from ONS).
Nevertheless, the UK depends on this foreign workforce as its economy relies partially on immigration. In 2020, the employment rate for foreign-born individuals, according to the OECD, stood at 75.5%. This is higher than the OECD average of 67.3% and is slightly higher than the employment rate for individuals born in the UK, which is 74.6%. Despite recognizing the necessity of immigration, the Conservative government is keen on exerting more control. Rishi Sunak, in particular, extends a warm welcome to skilled foreigners, entrepreneurs, and graduates.
Immigration to the UK: what are the opportunities?
"If you're an innovator, an entrepreneur, a researcher, you should know that the most competitive visa regime for highly skilled international talent is right here in the United Kingdom," said Sunak in his speech on November 27 at the Global Investment Summit. The Prime Minister recognizes the significant contribution of foreigners in founding innovative British companies. To attract talent, he presents the UK as "the best place in the world to invest and do business."
Sunak advocates for immigration, specifically targeting highly qualified individuals. He highlights the "ultra-competitive" nature of his visa system designed to select the best profiles. Sunak explicitly points out the High Potential Individual (HPI) visa, exclusively available to graduates from the world's top 50 universities. He describes this visa as "unique in the world," enabling individuals to study, work, and live with their families in the UK for two years.
Will Sunak's speech successfully attract foreign talent? What will tomorrow's UK immigration look like, and what opportunities will there be for prospective expatriates? Judging by the government's recent initiatives, it seems likely that there will be considerable restrictions on job opportunities. The drop in the number of jobs in high demand will affect both foreign workers and struggling companies. In fact, these companies are responding in various ways to the government's new measures, pointing out that labor shortages directly affect overall growth.
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United Kingdom: points-based visa system
