Some destinations only recently reopened their doors to international students
Japan, New Zealand and China are all popular student destinations that have started welcoming international students only in the last few months.
Japan remained largely closed to international students in 2020 and 2021. Restrictions were briefly eased in November 2021, but they were quickly reinstated when the Omicron variant appeared. It's only for Fall 2022 that the country is completely open to international students. Students who haven't received three vaccine doses (i.e., two doses plus a booster) still need to have negative PCR results and to self-quarantine for 3 days.
New Zealand's borders also fully reopened to international students only in Fall 2022. The country started processing student visas again in mid-2022, and on August 1, its borders fully reopened. No proof of vaccination is required to enter. The country's strict border closure was a double-edged sword: while it helped New Zealand have one of the lowest Covid mortality rates around the world, it also decreased its population of international students by two-thirds.
The PIE News reports that 50% less international students enrolled in New Zealand institutions in 2022 as compared to 2019, but Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is confident that the recruitment campaign that's part of her government's $51.6 million educational recovery plan will increase future enrolment figures.
What about China? It's a more complicated situation. The number of international students in the country had been steadily rising before Covid, reaching nearly half a million in 2018. Most of these students were from Asia, but a sizable portion were also from Russia and the United States. In March 2020, the country imposed a strict border closure for international travelers that's partly still in force in late 2022. In August 2022, long-term students from 57 countries were allowed to come or return to China. Like in Japan, they need to be vaccinated. Short-term program students or those from certain countries, notably some African ones, still cannot enter. Depending on their course and university, they can, however, attend online classes from their home country.
The lucky students who were being able to obtain an X1 visa are entering incrementally, in small batches. They also face a quarantine of 10 days upon entry: 7 days in a government facility and 3 days in their dorm/apartment. Some Chinese universities are only allowing first-year students or seniors to start on-campus classes according to the normal timetable. Others postponed their registration or arrival dates or moved classes online again abruptly when some Covid cases flared up in their region. As a result, the overall student experience remains quite unpredictable.
The Canadian international education sector is booming again
According to IDP Education, the top choices of prospective international students are Canada and Australia first, followed by the UK and the US. New Zealand, Germany, France and Ireland follow them as other popular destinations.
International student enrolment in Canada in 2022 is now only about 1 percent lower than in 2019, reports the ICEF Monitor. Actually, Canada had already attained this recovery rate by late 2021, when some of its competitors were still struggling badly. Since late 2021, there have been about 621,000 international students in the country, only about 15,000 less than in 2019. The growth in international education in Canada has increased by a stunning 173% since 2010 despite the pandemic, reports Erudera.
Factors that sustain Canada's attractiveness include its handling of Covid and the great work, settlement and naturalization opportunities after graduating there. In a survey by Navitas Insights, 79% of international education agents agreed that Canada's handling of the pandemic had won the trust of prospective students.
Faced with severe labor shortages, Canada is also looking to retain its international graduates as members of the workforce. Graduates of long-term programs can get a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) that lasts 1-3 years, and they are also given preference for other work visas, thanks to the cultural adaptability skills they learned as students.
Where are these students coming from? Canada is receiving less Chinese students, as safety, sanitary and financial concerns make the Chinese more reluctant to study abroad in general post-Covid. Student enrolment from other East/Southeast Asian countries like South Korea and Vietnam has also decreased. But the interest from Indian students remains as high as ever, and there is an increasing number of students from Latin America (Mexico, Bolivia, Peru, Chile) and Europe, notably from France. Since October 2022, none of them need to be vaccinated to enter Canada.
Australian international education is recovering, but long-term worries remain
In a survey of IDP Education, which dates from August 2022, one-quarter of surveyed prospective students rated Australia as their first choice. This is the highest percentage after Canada.
At the height of the pandemic, in 2020 and 2021, the number of international students in Australia plummeted by over half, from about 580,000 to 250,000. But this decline was stopped when the country's borders reopened in December 2021. While pre-pandemic levels haven't been recovered yet, there are now about 360,000 international students in the country. Since July 2022, they don't need to be vaccinated to enter the country.
There are also a significant number of student visa holders, about 72,000, who are still outside Australia. As reported by The Conversation, at least half of them are Chinese students who are unable to travel due to regional/city-wide lockdowns in their home country. This decrease in Chinese students has encouraged Australian universities to diversify their markets. They are now targeting more students from growing markets like Nepal and Brazil.
It should be noted that not all Australian universities are recovering equally. As reported by the Australian Department of Education, the Big Eight are recovering much more smoothly. They are the eight most prestigious research-intensive universities: the University of Melbourne, the Australian National University, the University of Sydney, the University of Queensland, the University of Western Australia, the University of Adelaide, Monash University and UNSW Sydney. Smaller universities are still not managing to attract as many international students, and their lower tuition fees are also making long-term financial recovery more difficult.
The US is failing to recover its competitive edge as compared to the UK
The US and the UK are also experiencing similar changes as the countries above when it comes to the demographics of their international students. However, comparatively, the US is recovering less easily than the UK.
The decline in the popularity of US education started before the pandemic. President Trump's unstable term, marred by xenophobic laws, dampened the zeal for studying in the US. Among other things, we can cite the attempted ban of students from some Muslim-majority countries, the attempt to force students following online courses during lockdowns to leave the country, and the temporary suspension of popular work visas. Hence, between 2016 and the start of the pandemic, international enrolment in American universities had already been declining by 7%. When the pandemic started, it declined further by around 23%, as reported by Forbes.
International enrollment for Fall 2022 has sprung back to 2019 levels, but it is uncompetitive when compared to the growth rate in neighboring Canada or other more faraway competitors like the UK. As reported by ICEF Monitor, 10% more F-1 visas were granted May-August 2022 compared to the same period in 2019. While this looks good, it hasn't made the US regain popularity as the most appealing destination. Indeed, the IDP Education survey from August shows that the US is now the fourth choice of the prospective students surveyed, ranking behind the UK.
The US has notably suffered from the most significant loss of Chinese students. From January to May 2022, the US issued 50% fewer F-1 visas to Chinese students than in 2019. Apart from the Trump-era policies, anti-Asian xenophobia during the pandemic influenced this decrease, says Karin Fischer in the Chronicle of Higher Education. As the ICEF Monitor notes, more Chinese students are turning to the UK than the US. Even if the overall number of Chinese people studying abroad has declined, it has surprisingly increased by 12% in the UK in 2022.
The UK is presenting other competitive advantages over the US: no vaccination requirement and expanded post-work study visas. Indeed, in 2021, the UK re-introduced its Graduate route visa. This had previously been suspended in 2012. It allows bachelor's and master's graduates to work in the country for 2 years, while doctoral graduates are granted 3 years. This work visa can be obtained even if the fresh graduate doesn't have a job offer yet.
The demographics of international students in the UK are also shifting. While Chinese students remain an important part of this demographic, and Indian students also remain a steady market, there is a more noteworthy increase in applications from Nigerians. There was a near twofold increase in student visas granted to Nigerians in 2022.
