No Red Wave as expected
At the time of writing, not all the ballots have been counted, but Republicans are narrowly ahead of Democrats in the House of Representatives, with 209 seats against 191.
In the Senate, Republicans and Democrats are in a tight knot. This is the first victory for the Democrats and, at the same time, a serious setback for Donald Trump, who has been omnipresent in the final stages of this campaign, besides making a barely concealed bid for a new presidential run. While there does not appear to be a red wave over America, the Republicans seem well on their way to a majority in the House of Representatives. This may well make Joe Biden's tasks even more difficult, especially since they clearly intend to block legislation and undermine the president's international policy for the remaining two years.
Republicans won key States
Marjorie Taylor Greene was re-elected in Georgia despite a controversial first term. The Republican known for her racist, conspiracist and anti-Semitic remarks, is a very disturbing figure, even within her own party, but she is adored by Trump fans. Greene is also close to the far right and has endorsed the QAnon movement (a far-right conspiracy theory and political movement). Another Trump supporter, James David Vance, aka J. D. Vance, won the much-contested state of Ohio, the industrial and agricultural heartland of the country. To win the state, Vance capitalized on inflation and voters' exasperation. In Florida, a traditionally swing state, voters overwhelmingly voted for Ron DeSantis, who easily outclassed his Democrat rival. It should also be noted that DeSantis, a former Trump protégé, now wants to run for president, much to the detriment of his mentor. This is no good news for Donald Trump indeed, because if he wants to run in the next presidential election under the Republican banner, DeSantis will represent a serious hurdle. Otherwise, it has been the same easy win for Greg Abbott, governor of Texas, a confirmed “Trumpist”.
The Democrats also won some significant States
Democrats managed to hold on to New York, not without worries. While Republicans thought they could unseat Kathy Hochul, the governor secured 52.7% of the votes over Lee Zeldin. Maryland and Massachusetts flipped to the Democrats. These two former Republican strongholds are making history and writing a new chapter in the history of the United States with the victory of Wes Moore in Maryland, namely. With 59.8% of the votes, Moore became the first African-American governor by beating his Republican opponent Dan Cox.
While already at work, new Maryland Governor Moore tweeted: "Real patriotism means bringing people together. It means lifting each other up and improving each other's lives. Patriotism means knowing that our country is great—and that if we do the work, it will be even greater."
Massachusetts was also home for another first. Maura Healey became the first openly lesbian governor in the United States. She handily defeated Republican Geoff Diehl with 63.2% of the votes.
But the victory that most symbolizes the Democrats' resilience occurred in Pennsylvania. By defeating Republican and TV star surgeon Mehmet Oz, John Fetterman picked up a key Senate seat for Democrats, but not without some setbacks. After suffering a stroke last May, he had to overcome widespread skepticism about his ability to govern. Doubts grew when, because of hearing problems, he was forced to use a teleprompter to read the questions he was asked. After a strong start, his campaign stalled. Poll results became tighter, and the suspense mounted during the final days of the campaign. The Pennsylvania seat has swung in favor of Fetterman, nicknamed "the coolest mayor" during his time in the industrial town Braddock between 2006 and 2019. This is a significant victory for Republicans, and Ronald Klein, White House Chief of Staff, hailed these strong Democratic results by tweeting: "Never underestimate how much Team Biden is underestimated."
The takeaway from these first results
There is still much uncertainty about the Senate. The results are pending in four states: Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, and the vote count could take several days. Tension is at its highest, and the United States seems more divided than ever.
The first observation of these elections indicates that American democracy seems to be at the end of its rope. Thousands of voters have already made it clear that they will not acknowledge the other party's victory. Emboldened by some politicians, especially on the Republican side, it must be said, these voters are promising a total blackout until they win. But is that democracy?
Midterm elections are traditionally unfavorable to the party in power. If the Democrat clan did not suffer a major setback, the first results speak a lot about the divides that mark the country. Joe Biden has not yet convinced, and some discordant voices have been heard from within his own camp. Biden is acknowledged to have provided substantial social assistance, particularly during the health crisis. But the inflationary surge has considerably slowed down his economic reforms. Income inequality, already high before the health crisis, has since turned into an abyss. In fact, it has never stopped increasing since the 1980s.
Biden did fail on economic issues, at least in the eyes of voters and critics. There has been no debate on COVID-19, but the impact of the pandemic has played its part in influencing Republican voters. Democrats were mostly criticized for downplaying the extent of the inflationary crisis. Jerome Powell, the head of the FED (Federal Reserve) has been betting on short-term inflation for a long time, but his naïve optimism did not convince either the markets or the thousands of Americans with weakened finances and difficult ends of the month.
With inflation skyrocketing at 8.2 percent year-on-year, soaring energy prices, and a housing crisis, it is hard these days for an American to keep a smile on their face. In his attempt at curbing the situation, for several months, President Biden pushed for OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries) to increase oil production, culminating in a trip to Saudi Arabia last July. This visit proved to be very controversial, namely because of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who is accused by US intelligence agencies of ordering the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Kashoggi in 2018. For many critics, Biden, who was seen as a hard-liner when he promised to make MBS a pariah, just sat on his then-firmness to trade a check for a few barrels of oil. And even that didn't work! In early October, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, along with its partners, led by Russia, decided to drastically cut fuel production with a drastic drop of 2 million barrels per day. Petrol prices went up, the US economy kept overheating, and this became a critical setback for the US President, only a few weeks before the midterms.
Is Biden paying the price for an unfavorable economic climate? Have the health crisis, the war in Ukraine and the energy situation had an impact on his policies? Well, it's more than certain that the global context has played a significant role in the growing tensions. Besides, there is a strong right-wing, even extreme right-wing, wind blowing all over the world. Self-centeredness and fear of the other fueled by alarmist Trumpist speeches seem to have played a major role in the voting intentions of many. What remains is a President Biden who embodies the idea of unity better than his predecessor.
The United States has regained its voice and credibility on the international stage, but at home, no one seems to understand each other anymore. The country's divide goes beyond the simple left/right cleavage, and there is still a long way to go before we discover a new and appeased political face of America.
