While closely following the current situation, expats in Ukraine do not seem to be planning to leave the country anytime soon, despite the calls from several of their home countries to repatriate. “I'm staying!”, says French expat Vet who has been living in Ukraine for 9 years. He does not believe in a Russian invasion and is not planning to leave unless there is an actual threat. “We've been hearing of a Russian invasion for ages, I'm not going to start believing this now”. And the other French expats involved in the discussion seem to all agree with him. They all have different opinions on the Russo-Ukrainian relations but one thing binds them all: they are not worrying until there is something to be worried about.
An American expat living in Ukraine has been urged to leave the country by the US Embassy. Indeed, the US has been asking its citizens to leave and have pulled non-essential embassy workers out of the country. “I simply replied that I am not leaving, although having been bombarded with these emails, I cannot help but question myself. The crisis is not going to be over next week, though. It can drag on for months or even years,” he says. So when will it be a good time to leave? “When French and German embassies are also evacuating their citizens. The UK and the US are not impartial enough for me!”.
But there are not only expats already living in the country, but also the ones who are planning to move to Ukraine, like Jo. The British citizen has been offered a hard-to-miss opportunity and would like to move as soon as possible, but finds himself in a conundrum. “If I decide against the option to move, the job offer goes along with the decision to stay in the UK…” she regrets.
What is the Russo-Ukrainian conflict?
The Russo-Ukranian war is an ongoing conflict that has returned as Ukraine wants to be part of NATO, The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, so the ex-soviet country was threatened by the Russian government that aims to invade Ukraine and conquer the Crimea region again. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to American president Joe Biden and urged NATO members to speed up Ukraine's request for membership. NATO has been interfering in this conflict since 2014, therefore Russia didn't like Ukraine's interest in being part of the organization. Although a Kremlin spokesman said that Russian military movements pose no threat, Russian official Dmitry Kozak warned that Russian forces could act to “defend'' Russian citizens in Ukraine, and any escalation of the conflict would mean "the beginning of the end of Ukraine" – "not a shot in the leg, but in the face".
Daria Kagamlyk, a Russian expat in France, gives her thoughts on why Russia is trying to invade Crimea again. She has a bachelor in law and is currently studying a master in International Law at Grenoble. “Here I have another vision on the matter. Crimea is already a part of Russia since 2014, and this is declared in the Russian constitution”.
Fear of a third world war
Despite being an independent country since 1991, as a former Soviet republic, Ukraine has been perceived by Russia as being part of its sphere of influence. The Kremlin has tried to systematically intimidate and silence human rights workers who have raised questions about Russian soldiers' deaths in Ukraine. According to The Moscow Times, Russia has tried to intimidate and silence human rights workers discussing Russian soldiers' deaths in the conflict. Russia's decision to annex Crimea was made on 20 February 2014. About, 13000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed so far and 3,393 civilians were killed, 312 of them were foreign, according to the UN.
Daria is afraid of a Russian-Ukranian war and worries about her family and friends, and for all Russian and Ukrainian civilians. For her, the fact that Russia plans to attack Ukraine now, “it's nonsense”. “My grandma and grandpa live in Ukraine, but they don't speak Ukrainian. And we worry a lot about them. I hope there will be no war. Russia is a nuclear and powerful state (especially compared to Ukraine) and it wouldn't be difficult for Russia to ‘win'. Sure, Russia has an army, as well as other countries have, but it isn't a regular Russian army. Besides, we have so much in common, many people have families in Ukraine, so this hostility between our countries makes me sad.”
How the current situation affects expats and the world?
Dara doesn't think this conflict impacts her life as an expat in France. However, “sure, it's always a “Russian question”, when professors speak about Ukraine or Navalny. They don't openly express their opinion, but ask us what we think about it. I always explain that I don't fully agree with Russian politics, but all changes should be introduced really carefully. And sure, the political elite in Russia should be renewed by young, well-educated and patriotic people.”
Nowadays, in late March-early April 2021, the Russian military moved large quantities of arms and equipment from western and central Russia, and as far away as Siberia, into occupied Crimea.
This conflict can turn into a possible third world war with the US and China's involvement. Daria explains what that can mean for Europe's politics and economy and for the world. According to her, “Wars always bring economic collapse. Sure, now Europe is more interconnected than 70 years ago after the 2nd world war, but still, it'd be very difficult to go through it again. I believe that if it's a 3rd world war, the nuclear states would just destroy all the living beings on earth and there will be no winners.”
