Will the Omicron variant be the gamechanger for Biden's administration's massive "infrastructure" plan, which would mean millions of jobs and another opportunity for foreigners to live the American dream? While number of professional visas is on the decline, medium-sized cities are facing labour shortages.
Pandemic, political negotiations, and visa freeze
This is one of the great paradoxes of the United States. As the country reopens its doors to international talent, the number of immigrants has dropped significantly -- -9% in compared to 2020, according to Bloomberg News. Still, the drop is even more impressive compared to 2019-- -17%. Mostly, H1-B visas, granted to qualified foreigners, are being considered here. Most foreigners moving to the USA for work apply for this visa. But things have changed over the past two years.
The main reasons are the pandemic and the Trump policy. Border closures in March 2020 were a global gamechanger, and the United States is no exception. In April 2020, then-President Donald Trump tweeted: “In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States!” Three years of Trump's presidency had already undermined the migration policy launched by Obama. There was a significant decrease in the number of work visas (-16%) and green cards (25%). 2020 was the year of the pandemic and that of the American elections as well. Trump promised more restrictions for foreigners, including the famous visa freeze. Officially, it was about fighting the pandemic. But for Trump, it was more about betting on the fears to win the favours of millions of Americans affected by the crisis. Although history has proved him wrong, the consequences of his policy are still present.
Other factors also account for the drop in H1-B visas, for example, the change in the status of green card applicants (the H1-B being a temporary visa). Analysts point out Biden's pragmatic policy, which is more open than that of Trump. Hence, the effects of visa restrictions should soon subside. The Biden government is planning to issue approximately 140,000 permanent residence visas.
Have medium-sized cities become the new haven for expatriates?
Could this be a Covid-19 aftermath? The Americans are resigning. This mainly concerns positions that are highly exposed to the economic climate (employees, drivers, delivery men, waiters, etc.), but also high-tech sector jobs. These Americans are aware that they are now in a strong position. As much international talent is sought after, so are professionals in competitive sectors subject to competition. Analysts call this the "great resignation", faced with shocking figures of the Department of Employment in the United States: 2.9% of turnover, which is equivalent to 4.3 million resignations. Sectors highly exposed to competition but with low wages are particularly affected. The hotel and food industries, for instance, have a record of 6.8% resignations.
So what, paradoxically, can revive growth in medium-sized cities? Analysts have observed a shift between difficult positions abandoned by the Americans and taken over by foreign labour. This is not a new phenomenon. Between 2010 and 2019, medium-sized cities started blooming with the support of immigrants. Cities like Charleston, Nashville and Louisville have become more attractive and boosted their population density. According to the Heartland Forward think tank, Iowa and Ohio stand out thanks to strong growth and rising immigration rates.
Is it a good idea to move to medium-sized cities. Heartland Forward believes that mid-size cities are now more attractive than legendary New Yorks or Los Angeles, especially regarding career prospects. Other studies point out that cities like Philadelphia, Detroit or San José would have lost in demography and attractiveness without immigrants. Regardless of their origins, foreigners contribute to economic growth. In Lincoln (capital of Nebraska), Huntsville (Alabama) or Council Bluffs (Iowa), there are about three times more vacancies than applicants. For these cities, the challenge is to attract foreign labour to support their economic growth. In pandemic times, especially, they cannot take the chance of letting entire sectors remain under stress. Still, foreign professionals are not going to settle for less than they already have. Should they move to medium-sized cities, they would be seeking not only better career prospects but also higher wages and other benefits.
In November, the Biden government's “infrastructure” law was passed by the House of Representatives. This is a victory for the Democrats, and this ambitious 1.2 trillion dollars plan should create millions of jobs in multiple fields during the next decade. This could be a new opportunity for expatriates to live the American dream.
