Oh Euro, Where Are You?
Last activity 25 May 2024 by fluffy2560
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Is it because Hungary doesn't want to join the club?
Or because the club doesn't want to let Hungary in?
Is it because Hungary doesn't want to join the club?Or because the club doesn't want to let Hungary in? -@zif
It's because there would be too much external scrutiny of the country's finances.
In other words, the government's books would reveal how much borrowing and debt there is. And what kind of mismanagement was involved.
They already have to provide much as part of the EU but those of us old enough will remember Greece cooked its books to enter the Euro zone. It took a while before it was clear what the situation was there. It led to austerity, tax increases and public financial reform there. It caused no end of political upheaval.
Offhand, I was guessing that there's not much upside to joining the Euro for Hungary now. The forint works OK without too much hassle and gives Hungary control over its monetary policy.
At this stage, joining the Euro would be mostly to signal support for European integration, and that's not a signal the current government wants to send.
But the pendulum swings, so in 10-15 years there'll probably be a government eager to send that signal, and goodbye forint.
Offhand, I was guessing that there's not much upside to joining the Euro for Hungary now. The forint works OK without too much hassle and gives Hungary control over its monetary policy.At this stage, joining the Euro would be mostly to signal support for European integration, and that's not a signal the current government wants to send.But the pendulum swings, so in 10-15 years there'll probably be a government eager to send that signal, and goodbye forint. -@zif
There would be many good reasons to do it. Inflation is low in the Euro zone but it's consensus led. Unfortunately as you say, it's tied up with OV's anti-EU rhetoric.
If OV loses the election (haha), then I'd expect any new (non-OV) government to put in place plans to change over probably in a second term. From my desk, it's not a hard sell. That's despite overall average inflation dropping here to something like 3.8%. However, in the detail, food prices have risen over 10% this year unlike in the Eurozone. That's a painful thing for the population. I've been lazily monitoring borrowing in Hungary and I don't see a lot of debt. It must be off balance sheet in projects - like the high speed rail, nuclear power station, university island and the battery factories. These kind of things with risky actors will all be uncovered if HU tried to join the Euro. The ECB (European Central Bank) is not stupid.
In a wider context, if my own country (the UK) ever rejoined the EU, the Pound Sterling will probably be gone as that would be insisted on by the EU. That would be a very hard prospect to accept in in the UK due to the very large influence the UK has over the world financial markets and the general size of the economy.
I could see there might be a timetable but I don't think anyone would be in a rush. Sterling is (or was) one of the world's reserve currencies - like the Japanese Yen, the US dollar (obviously), Euro etc.
BTW, I've seen reports China is intending to establish the Chinese Renminbi as another world reserve currency - part of their general hegemony plan.
I read this article a while back (2022) (I expect the Renminbi share has increased):
Personally I wouldn't touch the Renminbi with a barge pole.
Is it because Hungary doesn't want to join the club?Or because the club doesn't want to let Hungary in? -@zif
It's because there would be too much external scrutiny of the country's finances.
In other words, the government's books would reveal how much borrowing and debt there is. And what kind of mismanagement was involved.
They already have to provide much as part of the EU but those of us old enough will remember Greece cooked its books to enter the Euro zone. It took a while before it was clear what the situation was there. It led to austerity, tax increases and public financial reform there. It caused no end of political upheaval.
-@fluffy2560
The problem with Greece, it had a corrupt government that decided no one paid or little tax, and then of course the country goes tits up.
Is it because Hungary doesn't want to join the club?
Or because the club doesn't want to let Hungary in?
-@zif
I gather it's a bit of both.
Victor, the elected leader, is a clever chap with a lot of pull, and he knows it. He knows the Euro is his biggest stick, and he knows the EU is weak and stupid enough to stand there and take the hits.
The US Dollar is a massive problem for many countries as, after the US stole a lot of Russia's money, other countries are scared of what could happen to them if they ever fell out with the US.
Much as that doesn't appear to be a thing as far as the Euro and Hungary goes, the long list of countries dumping US dollar transactions in favour of BRICS makes it so.
Many countries are turning to non-Dollar transactions in order to avoid US sanctions. You might have read about India and Indonesia, and India and a number of other countries dumping Dollar transactions.
The Saudi/Iran peace deal brokered by China after the US murdered the Iranian representative was a massive game changer as Saudi started the Petrodollar thing all those years ago.
The fact both countries joined BRICS is massive news, and not good for the Dollar or Euro.
Pretty much all the governments in the EU back US sanctions, so those trading in whatever the US doesn't like aren't likely to use the Euro for trade whenever possible.
The world is moving away from the Dollar, and that's likely to hit the Euro on the rebound for the reasons above.
The background in mind, we should return to the country in question.
Victor is well aware of these things and he knows time is on his side. He also knows euro politicians were stupid enough to let Greece in, and are still desperate to expand at any cost. It's all in Hungary's elected leader's favour.
Hungary joining the Euro at this point in time would be very foolish as the Euro is likely to be lesser used, thus of lower value, and his biggest chip will have been cashed in.
You might also like to note Hungary's central bank said nothing should be done until at least 2030.
China is using Victor's sensible 'distance keeping' membership of the EU to get into European markets. New Chinese investments in Hungary will bring jobs and wealth, so Victor is likely to be very open to them. I would take a guess that the Chinese will have a seat at tables in back rooms, and it's unlikely a Hungary using the Euro will suit them.
All the above in mind, unless Victor gets a bribe so big he can't refuse it, it's unlikely Hungary will join the Euro for the moment.
The problem with Greece, it had a corrupt government that decided no one paid or little tax, and then of course the country goes tits up. -@SimCityAT
Yes, that's what seems to have happened.
It might sound odd but over there they forced people to pay by checking the electricity meters locations. The idea being if you are receiving electricity you must be engaged in some economic activity to pay the bills.
In some countries with worse problems, they send out the Army to collect. In others they some interesting other methods to embarrass the taxpayer into paying - like sending performers to stage some act outside the taxpayer's home/businesses. Hungary publishes a list of errant taxpayers. Not sure it does any good as who reads that?
On the other hand some countries - notably Spain and Italy - regularly publicise outstanding tax collected from celebrities. Notably Shakira was in the news on new charges but those were dropped. Pavrotti is a very famous tax case in Italy. They forced him into what was a very public allocution and settlement.
Of course people don't like paying tax, but in the long run and if handled properly you (hopefully) will benefit from in the long run. I worked out when I retire in Austria I will receive at least a €3000 a month state pension, possibly more.
Of course people don't like paying tax, but in the long run and if handled properly you (hopefully) will benefit from in the long run. I worked out when I retire in Austria I will receive at least a €3000 a month state pension, possibly more.
-@SimCityAT
Yes, exactly. Of course, the issue becomes political.
If one doesn't like the government splurging taxes on projects one doesn't agree with, then not paying is just a form of resistance. And resistance as old as the hills. Tax Collectors have been hung by lynch mobs - notably in the USA.
Sometimes one wonders what politicians are thinking - we've had window taxes, tea taxes, hearth taxes and even width of buildings tax. That's why the buildings in Amsterdam have short street frontages. It's one way to change people's behaviour.
Social security (pensions) is always a hot topic everywhere. It's going to get worse as population decline goes on. Contrary to popular belief, very few countries have social security funds as such. They usually are just re-distribution mechanisms. Places like Norway have very interesting and well run sovereign wealth funds which could be used to subsidise the population's needs. Qatar also has one. Norway is however, a model for it.
Offhand, I was guessing that there's not much upside to joining the Euro for Hungary now. The forint works OK without too much hassle and gives Hungary control over its monetary policy.
At this stage, joining the Euro would be mostly to signal support for European integration, and that's not a signal the current government wants to send.
But the pendulum swings, so in 10-15 years there'll probably be a government eager to send that signal, and goodbye forint.
-@zif
Nobody know, I would say. The EU might be history in 10-15 years, because the cash cows ran out of cash.
Offhand, I was guessing that there's not much upside to joining the Euro for Hungary now. The forint works OK without too much hassle and gives Hungary control over its monetary policy.At this stage, joining the Euro would be mostly to signal support for European integration, and that's not a signal the current government wants to send.But the pendulum swings, so in 10-15 years there'll probably be a government eager to send that signal, and goodbye forint. -@zif
Nobody know, I would say. The EU might be history in 10-15 years, because the cash cows ran out of cash.
-@TGCampo
I doubt that very much.
I do not know it the EUR for Hungary will be good or not, some very relative posts in this thread. What is clear to me is that (for me being Dutch) EUR would make life easier (even if I live in Turkey I still with my wife some accounts in Hungary).
I would support EUR introduction, but of course Orban (and Central Bank) have to implement certain measures.
Perhaps they are right not to adopt (some stringent concerns)
I do not know it the EUR for Hungary will be good or not, some very relative posts in this thread. What is clear to me is that (for me being Dutch) EUR would make life easier (even if I live in Turkey I still with my wife some accounts in Hungary).
I would support EUR introduction, but of course Orban (and Central Bank) have to implement certain measures.
Perhaps they are right not to adopt (some stringent concerns)
-@cdw057
Obviously they'd have to handover control of inflation to the ECB and foreign oversight. As I said before, I cannot see them doing that, not because of nationalism, but because they'd have to be transparent. It's an anathema to OV.
There should be quite a bit of foreign debt building up - mainly Chinese and Russian loans. It's not clear on public information if they can service these loans. It's probable they are off book loans held in corporations the government effectively controls through a golden share or some other structure.
We (should all) know how foreign debt mountains have decimated places like Montenegro. Montenegro's highway to nowhere cost $1Billion and is 41km long. The collateral is Montenegrin land. I don't think they defaulted yet but it must have led to some austerity in such a small country.
Several African countries are suffering from Chinese debt loan repayments too. I was in Zambia 20 years ago and they were already there running mega farms for food export back to China. They have a very long term view.
It would be nice to have Hungary in the Euro Zone, but it doesn't bother me that much as pretty much all the shops accept the Euro in Sopron so its easy if Im doing a shop at Tescos.
There should be quite a bit of foreign debt building up - mainly Chinese and Russian loans.
-@fluffy2560
Please prove your claims using links to reliable sites.
There should be quite a bit of foreign debt building up - mainly Chinese and Russian loans. -@fluffy2560
Please prove your claims using links to reliable sites.
-@Fred
You can Google it easily enough. But if you lived here, you'd know what is going on. We all know as it's local news.
It would be nice to have Hungary in the Euro Zone, but it doesn't bother me that much as pretty much all the shops accept the Euro in Sopron so its easy if Im doing a shop at Tescos.
-@SimCityAT
Ah Sopron, I know it so well. We go to Chen's Chinese Cooking when we pass by. I don't know why they haven't finished the motorway yet. It's a really messy set of junctions they are working on at the moment.
Anyhoo, the exchange rate isn't that good though for cash. You'll get a better exchange rate using your cards.
Hello everyone,
Please note that I have put aside some posts as the tone employed is getting pretty heated.
I invite members to stay courteous on the forum.
Regards
Bhavna
There should be quite a bit of foreign debt building up - mainly Chinese and Russian loans. -@fluffy2560Please prove your claims using links to reliable sites. -@FredYou can Google it easily enough. But if you lived here, you'd know what is going on. We all know as it's local news. -@fluffy2560
Iraq's WMD were also all over the newspapers.
I invite you to show the truth of your assertion.
It would be lovely if you could provide links to reliable sites
Thank you
There should be quite a bit of foreign debt building up - mainly Chinese and Russian loans. -@fluffy2560Please prove your claims using links to reliable sites. -@FredYou can Google it easily enough. But if you lived here, you'd know what is going on. We all know as it's local news. -@fluffy2560
Iraq's WMD were also all over the newspapers.
I invite you to show the truth of your assertion.
It would be lovely if you could provide links to reliable sites
Thank you
-@Fred
I'm sure you haven't got the time to learn economics. I certainly haven't got the time to write an essay about it.
You can easily do your own homework by typing it in Google.
I'll help with the first clue: What is the primary purpose of a central bank?
There should be quite a bit of foreign debt building up - mainly Chinese and Russian loans. -@fluffy2560Please prove your claims using links to reliable sites. -@FredYou can Google it easily enough. But if you lived here, you'd know what is going on. We all know as it's local news. -@fluffy2560Iraq's WMD were also all over the newspapers.I invite you to show the truth of your assertion.It would be lovely if you could provide links to reliable sitesThank you -@Fred
I'm sure you haven't got the time to learn economics. I certainly haven't got the time to write an essay about it.
You can easily do your own homework by typing it in Google.
I'll help with the first clue: What is the primary purpose of a central bank?
-@fluffy2560
Perhaps I might be so bold as to suggest you may be guilty of a terminological inexactitude.
I believe, if you make a statement, you should back it up with verifiable facts.
If you are unable to do so, you should withdraw the accusations, preferably with a public apology for posting misinformation.
Are you able to prove your assertion?
I'm sure you haven't got the time to learn economics. I certainly haven't got the time to write an essay about it. You can easily do your own homework by typing it in Google. I'll help with the first clue: What is the primary purpose of a central bank? -@fluffy2560Perhaps I might be so bold as to suggest you may be guilty of a terminological inexactitude.I believe, if you make a statement, you should back it up with verifiable facts.If you are unable to do so, you should withdraw the accusations, preferably with a public apology for posting misinformation.Are you able to prove your assertion? -@Fred
Apology for what? It's discourse.
Really, if you spent time on your own research, you can add value to these discussions.
As I said, you can look it all up yourself. It's all out there and available.
For goodness sake, you have just done a full circle. Comments have already been removed because they were going off topic. Move on........
For goodness sake, you have just done a full circle. Comments have already been removed because they were going off topic. Move on........
-@SimCityAT
I agree. The weather is more interesting this morning.
For goodness sake, you have just done a full circle. Comments have already been removed because they were going off topic. Move on........
-@SimCityAT
I dislike the idea of making claims for political reasons that can't be backed up.
That sort of stuff is extremely dangerous - See Iraq where people believed government rubbish about WMD, thus laid the path for an invasion that killed thousands and destroyed the lives of ordinary people.
This isn't much different - Make enough false claims and people will start to believe they are true. Lies that lead to racism and possible violence should be challenged or we are as guilty as the liar.
One thing that is an absolute truth - People are generally stupid enough to believe rubbish, and the violent ones act on their idiocy
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-amer … -rcna14282
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9168424/
If I see a lie based on race hate - I have a moral requirement to call it out
@fluffy2560 I always converted EUR into HUF through my bank account (I still do if needed), of course thre is a spread, but that is normal.
In general it is fine.
@fluffy2560 I always converted EUR into HUF through my bank account (I still do if needed), of course thre is a spread, but that is normal.In general it is fine. -@cdw057
When I do foreign currency transactions at the bank, I usually get an e-mail and text message saying there's a spread and what the percentage difference is. Sometimes it's more than I like!
There is or was a Tobin (transaction) tax here in HU that people don't often notice as it's tiny. I agree it doesn't make much difference to most transactions but it can add up over time.
Usually with card transactions, one can get a better rate via Visa/Mastercard than leaving it to the issuing bank. It can make quite a difference.
Example:
If one buy air tickets here, they are all priced in HUF as they originate here.
Some airline web sites allow you to select the currency you want to display the price in.
One can potentially save 10-15K HUF or more on the deal by paying in the airline quoted HUF but letting Visa/Mastercard to do the conversion instead of the bank.
For goodness sake, you have just done a full circle. Comments have already been removed because they were going off topic. Move on........ -@SimCityAT
I dislike the idea of making claims for political reasons that can't be backed up.
That sort of stuff is extremely dangerous - See Iraq where people believed government rubbish about WMD, thus laid the path for an invasion that killed thousands and destroyed the lives of ordinary people.
This isn't much different - Make enough false claims and people will start to believe they are true. Lies that lead to racism and possible violence should be challenged or we are as guilty as the liar.
One thing that is an absolute truth - People are generally stupid enough to believe rubbish, and the violent ones act on their idiocy
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-amer … -rcna14282https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9168424/
If I see a lie based on race hate - I have a moral requirement to call it out
-@Fred
You don't live in Europe, you have no idea what is happening here, yet it's all over the news here. I'm not going to play your games. You have ruined 2 perfectly good threads. I suggest you keep out of Hungarian news. I can't imagine it's a hot topic in Indonesia.
You don't live in Europe, you have no idea what is happening here, yet it's all over the news here. I'm not going to play your games. You have ruined 2 perfectly good threads. I suggest you keep out of Hungarian news. I can't imagine it's a hot topic in Indonesia.
-@SimCityAT
It seems I can get my news from the papers - or maybe not as the supposed facts are unable to be posted.
At the end of the day, I don't believe casual racism, in the case posting unverifiable news in order to make a political point, is acceptable anywhere.
I think he made it up - I know he refuses to back it up
Once the get their agenda to have everyone chipped at birth, we will no longer need money.
It will either be heaven or hell.
We can go the way of Mad Max or have a paradise where everyones work efforts are worth the same value.
Knowing human nature, I am afraid it would be more of a hell on earth.
People just can not be peaceful and let their egos go. They need to one up everyone else.
It is not in our DNA to let others live in peace and in equality.
The forint may go the way of the Pengo and the US Federal reserve will never close.
The Federal reserve has nothing to do with the US gov. it is a private business who loans funds to the US for debt.
The world is based on debt. They can control people by debt, if people had no debt they would be free.
Can not control free people.
Could be next week or next century but banks are going to go digital with no more cash.
More control of where and how people spend.
All this debt with these wars means these countries who were ,given weapons are going to owe big time to those who donated.
Just a way for stronger countries like the US, UK, Germany to rid themselves of old equipment that is slowly rotting away on shelves.
Back in the 1980s, 1990s machine shops in small job shops were raking it in making 2nd and 3rd hand jobs from big companies like McDonald Douglas, ,Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon, so many others.
Even where my husband worked, just a 2 guy operation, They were pumping out what they called, shells, A finely machined part made out of ceramic with a tiny metal connector inside. Used in the control panel of a US fighter jet. For years and years they made the same part.
Another guy shared the shop with them, he made special ball bearings for the night vison glasses pilots wear. He made a killer doing those. He was a trained watch maker and his work was very fine quality.
All those shells have to be used up at some point in time.
Outdated military equipment donated to countries. Nothing in this world is free, they are in deep now with debt.
How they will pay in the future is anyone guess.
They are just dumping old supplies to these countries and owning them in the future.
Once the get their agenda to have everyone chipped at birth, we will no longer need money.
It will either be heaven or hell.
We can go the way of Mad Max or have a paradise where everyones work efforts are worth the same value.
Knowing human nature, I am afraid it would be more of a hell on earth.
People just can not be peaceful and let their egos go. They need to one up everyone else.
It is not in our DNA to let others live in peace and in equality.
The forint may go the way of the Pengo and the US Federal reserve will never close.
The Federal reserve has nothing to do with the US gov. it is a private business who loans funds to the US for debt.
The world is based on debt. They can control people by debt, if people had no debt they would be free.
Can not control free people.
-@Marilyn Tassy
Yes, indeed the Fed is WORSE then a private business. But that's the same for all central banks who have control of a nation's currency.
They used to magic money up by printing currency and then suddenly it has value. That's how they actually made money - by lending money they created. It's remarkable. But they don't even have to print it now. They can just increase the amount in circulation by saying so. They don't even have to have any gold to back it up.
US dollar or the Pengo or Forint only has value of enough people believe in it. If they don't believe it, it's simply a bit of paper like an IOU.
Outdated military equipment donated to countries. Nothing in this world is free, they are in deep now with debt.How they will pay in the future is anyone guess.They are just dumping old supplies to these countries and owning them in the future. -@Marilyn Tassy
I used to work somewhere a bit like that.
We had huge amounts of old equipment stored in a giant basement. This had come back from the field. When a new project started up, usually a joint venture, we'd ship that old gear out to another country location joint venture as having a high book value. It was essentially scrap metal and useless. But at HQ, we could write it down as investment value into the new joint venture. Investment was an obligation. It was quite absurd for the aims of the work but financially, it was throughly sensible for HQ.
Makes me think when I hear $10 billion of military kit being sent out somewhere, it might have a real value of $10M.
Outdated military equipment donated to countries. Nothing in this world is free, they are in deep now with debt.How they will pay in the future is anyone guess.They are just dumping old supplies to these countries and owning them in the future. -@Marilyn Tassy
I used to work somewhere a bit like that.
We had huge amounts of old equipment stored in a giant basement. This had come back from the field. When a new project started up, usually a joint venture, we'd ship that old gear out to another country location joint venture as having a high book value. It was essentially scrap metal and useless. But at HQ, we could write it down as investment value into the new joint venture. Investment was an obligation. It was quite absurd for the aims of the work but financially, it was throughly sensible for HQ.
Makes me think when I hear $10 billion of military kit being sent out somewhere, it might have a real value of $10M.
-@fluffy2560
There are a couple of pluses when moving stuff out of the reserve stocks, mainly on the maintenance side because you can stop maintaining the kit and get rid of the staff/contractors you no longer need, also the depreciation on your books ceases.
There is a massive potential negative; you have to hope and pray that you won't need the stuff you've just gifted to another country, who generally made the same mistake we just did.
There are a couple of pluses when moving stuff out of the reserve stocks, mainly on the maintenance side because you can stop maintaining the kit and get rid of the staff/contractors you no longer need, also the depreciation on your books ceases.
There is a massive potential negative; you have to hope and pray that you won't need the stuff you've just gifted to another country, who generally made the same mistake we just did.
-@Cynic
Yes, indeed, the UK has been winding down the military for years and years and now is on the back foot. It's even worse because there's almost no manufacturing for stocks either. I did see they ordered new ships but no-one will be available to run them. D'uh.
I don't know if the closure of Port Talbot steelworks will have any bearing but I believe they make "technical steel" which is probably the last place in the UK one can get that stuff. Anyway, it's going to take years to ramp up the industrial capacity and reacquire know-how. Everyone thought artillery was defunct but look at Ukraine and Russia. Chucking thousands per day at each other.
The good news (if there is any) is that the DPRK shells have a very high failure rate apparently - i.e. duds.
Very off topic.
There are a couple of pluses when moving stuff out of the reserve stocks, mainly on the maintenance side because you can stop maintaining the kit and get rid of the staff/contractors you no longer need, also the depreciation on your books ceases.There is a massive potential negative; you have to hope and pray that you won't need the stuff you've just gifted to another country, who generally made the same mistake we just did. -@Cynic
Yes, indeed, the UK has been winding down the military for years and years and now is on the back foot. It's even worse because there's almost no manufacturing for stocks either. I did see they ordered new ships but no-one will be available to run them. D'uh.
I don't know if the closure of Port Talbot steelworks will have any bearing but I believe they make "technical steel" which is probably the last place in the UK one can get that stuff. Anyway, it's going to take years to ramp up the industrial capacity and reacquire know-how. Everyone thought artillery was defunct but look at Ukraine and Russia. Chucking thousands per day at each other.
The good news (if there is any) is that the DPRK shells have a very high failure rate apparently - i.e. duds.
Very off topic.
-@fluffy2560
To bring this thread back on topic -- please! -- has there never been a proposal to redenominate the forint and slash a couple zeros off its value?
Then there could be a competition for the name of the redenominated currency.
Is it because Hungary doesn't want to join the club?
Or because the club doesn't want to let Hungary in?
-@zif
First one.
Same as Poland: the last time when there was done a large representative research did turn out over 65% strictly against Euro, while less than 25% supports it.
Of course people don't like paying tax, but in the long run and if handled properly you (hopefully) will benefit from in the long run. I worked out when I retire in Austria I will receive at least a €3000 a month state pension, possibly more.
-@SimCityAT
Off course Austria is different, but in had decades long history of how to use state funds in a relative wise manner.
Not sure that is still stand after 2015 - as I was not there for years, but up to early 2010's they made good care about taxes, so in placed like that people tend to be less irritated about taxes.
To bring this thread back on topic -- please! -- has there never been a proposal to redenominate the forint and slash a couple zeros off its value?
Then there could be a competition for the name of the redenominated currency.
-@zif
It would work to chop off some zeros. I do remember some discussions in the 90s when I first came here.
I vote the name to be the Orban subdivided as 100 idiots.
Good a name as others but any change of government will probably bring the Euro in.
I remember the Lire and I also just remember the Romanian currency changing.
Lots of countries have done it but it'll lead to some inflation as they round up. Not that you'll get change if your bill is 1003 Ft or 997 Ft. Prices never go down.
I guess these would be both rounded to 10 Orbans rather than 9 Orbans and 97 Idiots or 10 Orbans and 3 Idiots.
I suppose what's a few idiots up and down between friends.
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