COVID-19

Committee to Combat COVID-19 says it is necessary to extend a state of emergency

Amado Alejandro Báez, president of the Committee, stated that the strategies that have been effective must be continued

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … OJ19102590

........"The general consensus of the Committee determined that, for the coming phases, we must continue working on strategies that have been proven effective: from physical distancing to public policies, which include curfews and extension of the state of emergencies," said Báez in an address that the Presidency released tonight......

Expect the President to seek an extension of emergency powers later today based upon medical advice. And then Senate and Congress debates.

It will then be interesting to see if any politicians decide to go against medical advice and risk an increase in cases and deaths before an election should curfew be lifted and social distancing be unenforceable.

Personally, I believe the curfew has been a major factor in keeping the spread down and anyhow bars, clubs,discos and restaurants are going to be closed until late August, and has stopped crowds at colmados and car washes in the evenings and cut crime and drug peddling.

Yes, bars restaurants etc are closed and the curfew inhibits informal gatherings.....
It's much needed - a necessity.

As others have mentioned - crime is down too.
That has been noted in other countries too

All in all - a good thing to continue

Let's hope it is continued.

I have limited internet connection still. Altice is down in parts of the country. Day 3 for me.

What a pleasure to have my hair cut after about 12 weeks - I feel human again!

I use the same barber in Bella Vista Mall and decided to day I would take my chance early after the weekly groceries and paying some bills.

The place was empty and I was the first customer. The protocols were good. Masks of course mandatory. He used gloves and disinfected before starting. His cover sheets were freshly laundered in sealed plastic bags. He had several and said that after using the sealed ones he disinfects the sheets later in the day. He wiped down all his combs, razors and scissors with alcohol and then my hands, neck, forehead,eyebrows  and ears were wiped with alcohol. The cleaning of his stuff with alcohol was continuous. I had to help removing the mask straps to each ear as he cut and shaved around the ears. And to finish more alcohol wipes. I returned home directly and showered. 

Yet another aspect of life that has changed like wiping all the groceries, cans, bottles and cartons with alcohol before putting away in fridge or cupboard and then disposing all the bags.

Bulletin #69:

Total Confirmed Cases:    15723       Increase:   459
Total Deaths:                         474        Increase:       6
Total Recovered:                 8790        Increase:   256
Total Active Cases:              6459        Increase:   197
Total ICU:  112
Total PCR Tests:                 73121       Increase:  2149     Day positivity   21.3%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                 98
Azua                               11
Barahona                      41
Duarte                            3
La Altagracia                22
La Romana                    3
La Vega                          8
Peravia                           1
Puerto Plata                  2
Samana                          2
San Cristobal                39
SPM                                1
Santiago                        19
Santiago R                     1
Valverde                         1
Monsenor N                  1
Monte Plata                   1
San Jose                          2
Santo Domingo            151
Non Specified                52           no province so guessing Foreigners/Haitians

More tests = more cases and high positivity.

Danilo Medina requests an additional 25 days of state of emergency

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … II19110282

https://m.noticiassin.com/catorce-de-19 … -covid-19/

14 Dominicans returning on a flight from Madrid test positive for covid19 on arrival. All passengers go into quarantine including those who had PCR tests prior to flying.

This is proof enough of the high risk of allowing flights to come from infected countries.

Strange as Spain is re opening their bars and Cafes etc.  It's good they checked these people at the airport and you will always get people going through an airport who might have the virus.  The only way to control this is to Tract, Test & Trace which is what most European countries are now doing.

However it is not a reason to keep harbours and airports closed.

Ducketts

Your bias is showing again. ducketts.

It is every reason to keep them closed.

Disagree and I'm not bias.

Ducketts

I don't care about what Spain is doing.

It has over 100k active cases with between 500 and 1700 daily new cases and Madrid which has a smaller population than Santo Domingo has over 18k active cases and a daily uptick of about 300 new cases.

It is not surprising that cases can be imported from flights arriving from Madrid and DR should be aware of a high risk and continue testing and quarantine arrivals from any country with high active case numbers for the foreseeable future. A new PCR test before flying might get you quarantine at home but you could still cop it on the flight.

Now you can effectively quarantine tourists in their resorts and manage their arrival and exit. After all the DR tourist model is based on tourists coming to stay in AI's for the duration of their stay.

Very interesting finding from Norway and therefore does beg the question about lock-down and closures:

"
Lockdown was not needed to tame Covid, says Norway



Norway is assembling a picture of what happened before lockdown using observed data – hospital figures, infection numbers and so on – to assess the situation in the country in March. At the time, no one really knew. It was feared that Covid was rampant with each person infecting two or three others – and only lockdown could stop this exponential growth by cutting the R number to 1 or lower. But the country's public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and it would not take much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way out.'



This raises an awkward question: was lockdown necessary? Could voluntary social distancing alone have achieved the same outcome? Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway's public health agency, has given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.' This is important to admit, she says, because if infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective".


Ducketts

Lots of questions and it is far from over.  Seems to me that the long term will decide what should have or could have been done. We are still up to our asses in this!

Ducketts, when I say your "bias" I did not say you are biased.  Your bias is your  framework or your filters that you use when looking at any given idea or concept.  I am not insulting you honey.

In your case, your "bias" is driven by your need and want to get home.  There is nothing wrong with that, it is your reality.  It just is not ours. Our bias,  is to remain safe!

Norway is a big country with population spread far and wide in isolated communities. It's population is half that of DR and it's only city, Oslo, has half the population of DN and 2/3rd that of Santiago. Norwegians are very reserved people and not the type that gather in large numbers. No bar culture as such......they have to be very rich to drink there.

Yep maybe they could have did what Sweden did doing with a similarly wide spread population and no big urban areas apart from Stockholm. But maybe had they gone that course they would still be seeing each day 600 new infections and 100 deaths and a death rate of 12%.

Norway did right and is over it. Sweden has not and some in that country say it took the wrong course.

And huge discussions  over the lack of spread in some areas of Africa.  Lack of transportation  is said to be the  tool for controlling spread. NOt sure.  Again we can speculate until we run out of breath on these issues.

The president has requested another extension of his emergency powers.   This was predictable. Lets see what the senate and deputies do with this.

One question I have -  if we remove his emergency powers, does the curfew and all the other limitations disappear???

Can someone please explain us who are confused. 

What on earth is the point of the president asking the senate for a further 25 days of curfew when the elections I am informed by Planner must go ahead regardless and therefore, and what many of us have seen, is a total disrespect for social distancing.  We know that social distancing and washing your hands are considered the 2 most important things to do to quash the virus. 

My point is in one week of electioneering you will see absolute chaos on the streets and disregard to social distancing.

So what is the point of curfews or are many of us missing something here!


Ducketts

You ask a good question and frankly I go between oh the hell with it and lock it all down.....

Reality is we need the state of emergency for whatever control it brings to the table.  We need curfew and we need a progressive reopening and the mask rule is critical.  Otherwise all hell  break loose!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #59

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OtPeAs … Lbl3z/view

It's necessary to compare what other countries are doing and analyze what works and what doesn't work, but do not forget that there are not 2 countries alike.  Locking down the DR is essential Ducketts.  Here is why... many Dominicans will and are ignoring all of these orders.  Partly because they are Dominican and that is the way they are and partly because there is no way for them to be isolated due to their life style, financial status etc.  They are infecting the country and unfortunately many people will probably die because of this.  The lockdown protects the rich, the educated, most expats, those that listen to the government and the law, those that can think.  This group of people will stay home and be safe.  Yes, it could take several extra months, but then you cannot blame the government for trying to protect you (from them).  In the end, things will get back on track, be patient.  There is nothing you can do or can say to change it so just relax and get used to it.  Time for another Margarita...that was exhausting...

You raise many good points.  And specifically - there is nothing we can do about it. We have no say, no vote and saying or doing something about it can get you problems in the future. 

I understand the frustration. I would.love to be able.to actively do something about this.  All I can do is  ontinue to explain to Dominicans, assist where I can quietly and creatively.

And relax. I can do that  Thank goodness for Dominican rum!

How would you recommend to a visitor/tourist?

Would you visit when you first could?
Only visit certain areas?
Wait and how long?

I realize different views.

Well no surprise the R yesterday was 1.01 now 1.03

I wonder if it ever get down to below 1!

Ducketts

Many views, only one answer.  Be patient and wait for everything to stabilize.  For now there are no answers only speculation.

What you is very credible but sad.

Whilst a lock-down as you say is essential it will only get below 1 with proper controls and discipline.

What you say about the locals, however if the top i.e. the president and his goons do show leadership by example- respecting social distancing what chance is there?

I appreciate it will take time but Govs must act and this president is doing nothing in absolute real effective terms.  Lock-down is one thing but you must lead your people by example and he is failing in that regard.  One can just imagine the R being above 1 for another few months with further requests to the senate for extensions of lock-downs.  It's a vicious circle

Anyway I've said my peace and i'll shut up!

Ducketts

Not quite Ducketts.  Sadly and eventually it will get to be below 1, no matter what happens.

This may interest some....
Surface transmission of the virus is not as common as thought earlier

So how should you think about surface transmission?

It doesn't seem to be common, but it does seem possible. It is the most likely explanation for an outbreak at a Chinese shopping mall, as my colleague Tara Parker-Pope points out.

One thing to understand is that merely touching virus particles isn't enough to become infected. You probably have to touch many particles — and then touch your face. Objects that a small number of other people briefly touch, like groceries and shopping bags, seem to present a very small risk. That's why I have stopped wiping down every object that comes into my house, as I was when the lockdown began.

In the spectrum of risk, you should worry more about face-to-face conversations and extended time in indoor spaces with people who are outside your household. “We don't need to be paranoid — you can still play catch or press an elevator button — we just need to wash our hands and be mindful,” Tara told me. She has just published a guide to surface transmission, and I recommend it.

I read some info about that as well. Much less concern with surfaces!  This is respiratory and  so masks become even more important.

As a girl (lol) I now have masks to match my outfits!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This chart is a good comparison on how the world countries are dealing with covid-19 virus. In comparison DR isn't in any worse shape then many more advanced countries, like Canada for example. Presently I am in Germany. Stores have been open now for 4 weeks. Restaurants are opening with restrictions. I understand Germans are probably more disciplined but they have chosen to stop living in fear of this virus. Every one knows driving in DR is high risk, but do you stop driving. 
It's going to take a life style change but committing economic suicide is not the answer. Six months from now the risk may be lower but it will still be a risk.

That is the common viewpoint -

Once the public gets over the fear factor--
but accept the lifestyle changes needed to continue,
we go forward

unfortunately this country is comprised mostly of poorly educated people who don't really grasp the severity of the problem.
Plus, it goes contrary to their basic instincts

I am living that way now....
still fearful - say cautious - but out & about, with care

Bulletin #70

Confirmed New Cases: 16068         Increase:   345
Confirmed Deaths:            485         Increase:     11
Confirmed Recovered:    8952         Increase:    162
Total Active Cases:            6631        Increase:    172
Total PCR Tests:               74612       Increase:    1491      Day positivity 23.1%

Spread of New cases:

DN                                        88
Barahona                               5
Duarte                                    3
El Seibo                                  1
Espaillat                                 16
La Altagracia                         31
La Romana                            12
La Vega                                    8
Hermanas M                           2
San Cristobal                         51
San Juan                                   2
SPM                                          1
Sanchez Ramirez                    1
Santiago                                   7
Monsenor N                            4
Santo Domingo                     114

Less tests higher positivity.

DR is beginning to look like a country that will have a perpetual problem with covid19 and will probably not be getting the numbers down but rather the opposite is more likely.

We are seeing higher percentages of positive cases per tests now and that suggests there is more out there. Any effects of reopening will start to show next week and the numbers of active cases is creeping up along with deaths.

There is plenty of business activity around the capital now and it will be what it will be and probably not good.

The inability to increase and maintain the testing numbers hides from the population the true situation because all they see is; one day 400 and one day 190 and they think it's beat. If there were more testing I think we would see daily totals of 1000 plus at times.

Its pretty  scary,   roads are full, traffic problems everywhere.   And we are headed into a pay weekend and mothers day.

My grocery shopping is done and I will not go out again until probably Tuesday!

[b]Senate approves extension of state of emergency for 25 days

https://noticiassin.com/senado-aprueba-extension-de-estado-de-emergencia-por-25-dias/

The day of judgement comes tomorrow with the opposition saying they will not approve in Congress.

If the state of emergency does not exist then under the constitution it appears the President can't stop all businesses opening including those where people conglomerate and can't continue the curfew whereby infringing on peoples rights.

The blame game has begun with governing party stating opposition will have to accept the consequences if they don't approve the extension and would not be following health recommendations.

A potential 'free for for all' could be coming and knowing Dominicans they will open up everything day 1.

Let's hope the calmer and wiser minds see the huge risks and work out a deal.

What a sad state of affairs.

Having followed the president with his various speeches translated by Google, I confess I don't have any sympathy for him.  He's trying to cling to power under exceptional circumstance but lacks the vision to do so.

I really hope the extension is approved as the last thing anyone wants is a free for all, ugly politics, blame game and so on.  And of course serious consequences to Covid-19 in DR. 

We can only wait and see. 

Ducketts

We are all crazy to get out of this quarantine, and I know the economy is hit pretty hard but opening everything all of a sudden and not in phases, it's pretty scary.
Me and some colleagues protested last week for the suspension by the Office of Consumer of several shops due to their online shopping and now "No holds barred" instead of supporting e-commerce to develop.
I guess the proper thing to do for now is to keep avoiding the crowds and always wearing the masks.

Well.... each of us is on their own....

Take care of yourself...and others if you can

Were it not for the election.... I expect things would be different

Watch the public reward the party that 'freed' them

Watch the R up

Ducketts

The transmission is already enough as can be seen from analysing the daily covid19 reports and limited testing.

I fully expect to see a spike from Phase 1 opening up starting next week and if not too great it could be managed and put excess stress on the health system. Mind you with such low testing around the country it might not become that obvious and the press will just report the daily 20% - 25% numbers based upon actual tests. Less tests lower reported numbers and we all feel good that it isn't getting worse. Wouldn't it be good to see the percentage down to neat 10% which could be the R =1 threshold according to PAHO. We are miles from that.

But if non emergency powers are approved tomorrow and curfew ceases in a few days and all the activities where people congregate start again abandon - and why won't they with out any control - we could be seeing a dire situation mid June.

Common sense would normally prevail...but maybe not in such a politically charged arena? I bet Margarita will be bending her husbands ear tonight. Women have proven to be the best leaders in covid19 times because they care.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #60

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1M4tKjc … zTYRa/view