Absolutely Anything Else

klsallee wrote:

.....

In short,, you and other pensioners et al., may be far, far more useful to society DESPITE.... than the government itself....

For example... When are you going to write your autobiography?????? 

If anything good comes out of this little contretemps, it'll be Marilyn's snapshot of a walk on the wild side of LA during the hip 60s and 70s. 

The clearing of the herd made me think of the Golgafrinchans and their solution, vis-a-vis:

SimCityAT wrote:

There is Britbox now, but you can't use it in Europe, unless you use a VPN but you can in Canada and the USA.

My daughter has a legitimate account with Britbox in the Netherlands.  Just expanded to include Channel 4 & 5 as well, she is very happy with it.

Cynic wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

There is Britbox now, but you can't use it in Europe, unless you use a VPN but you can in Canada and the USA.

My daughter has a legitimate account with Britbox in the Netherlands.  Just expanded to include Channel 4 & 5 as well, she is very happy with it.

Good to know.   When I lived in the south of NL 30+ years ago, we used to have SSVC on cable which was for the British military.   Later on when Mrs Fluffy and I lived near Amsterdam maybe 15 or so years ago we had Channel 4 but not Channel 5.  More recently I was in a hotel near Dunkirk and they had Channel 4 and strangely More 4 but nothing else I remember in a foreign (non-French) language.   These days all we need is a good Internet connection. 

I just watched Horizon from the BBC on Coronavirus - it was pretty good  and well produced but it took an age to download over my private VPN.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Cynic wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

There is Britbox now, but you can't use it in Europe, unless you use a VPN but you can in Canada and the USA.

My daughter has a legitimate account with Britbox in the Netherlands.  Just expanded to include Channel 4 & 5 as well, she is very happy with it.

Good to know.   When I lived in the south of NL 30+ years ago, we used to have SSVC on cable which was for the British military.   Later on when Mrs Fluffy and I lived near Amsterdam maybe 15 or so years ago we had Channel 4 but not Channel 5.  More recently I was in a hotel near Dunkirk and they had Channel 4 and strangely More 4 but nothing else I remember in a foreign (non-French) language.   These days all we need is a good Internet connection. 

I just watched Horizon from the BBC on Coronavirus - it was pretty good  and well produced but it took an age to download over my private VPN.

I must confess to an interest here, I worked for SSVC as a cinema projectionist and BFBS Radio as a presenter while in HM Forces.  SSVC has since migrated into BFBS (TV & Radio), then more recently into Forces Television; this link will take you to there website.  It works here in the UK, who knows what happens elsewhere.

With regards to the Dutch bit; well the Forces bit of Dutch broadcasting has long gone.  It was only there because a large part of the RAF Germany (Laarbruch, Wildenrath and Bruggen) community lived in the Netherlands and by then TV antennas had ceased to exist in Holland and everyone was on satellite or cable, so to give them their dose of Neighbours, East Enders etc, NOS agreed to use 2 of its TV and radio cable channels to broadcast SSVC TV and BFBS radio.  In the east of Holland, you could still get BFBS radio on FM.  Nowadays, British Forces Germany is no more and the 2 camps left (Paderborn and Moenchengladbach) will get Forces TV/Radio via a VPN.  So, that's how Forces broadcasting came to be on Dutch cable, it was all legitimate and the cloggies hadn't hacked it (as the rumours at the time were suggesting).

In the meantime, back in the Netherlands, Dutch cable companies are now live streaming BBC1, 2 and BBC Europe as part of their standard package; if you have a smart TV, you can also get Britbox as a subscription service; also Netflix, Apple TV and Amazon if you know how and Disney is just around the corner.

Cynic wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Cynic wrote:

My daughter has a legitimate account with Britbox in the Netherlands.  Just expanded to include Channel 4 & 5 as well, she is very happy with it.

Good to know.   When I lived in the south of NL 30+ years ago, we used to have SSVC on cable which was for the British military.   Later on when Mrs Fluffy and I lived near Amsterdam maybe 15 or so years ago we had Channel 4 but not Channel 5.  More recently I was in a hotel near Dunkirk and they had Channel 4 and strangely More 4 but nothing else I remember in a foreign (non-French) language.   These days all we need is a good Internet connection. 

I just watched Horizon from the BBC on Coronavirus - it was pretty good  and well produced but it took an age to download over my private VPN.

I must confess to an interest here, I worked for SSVC as a cinema projectionist and BFBS Radio as a presenter while in HM Forces.  SSVC has since migrated into BFBS (TV & Radio), then more recently into Forces Television; this link will take you to there website.  It works here in the UK, who knows what happens elsewhere.

With regards to the Dutch bit; well the Forces bit of Dutch broadcasting has long gone.  It was only there because a large part of the RAF Germany (Laarbruch, Wildenrath and Bruggen) community lived in the Netherlands and by then TV antennas had ceased to exist in Holland and everyone was on satellite or cable, so to give them their dose of Neighbours, East Enders etc, NOS agreed to use 2 of its TV and radio cable channels to broadcast SSVC TV and BFBS radio.  In the east of Holland, you could still get BFBS radio on FM.  Nowadays, British Forces Germany is no more and the 2 camps left (Paderborn and Moenchengladbach) will get Forces TV/Radio via a VPN.  So, that's how Forces broadcasting came to be on Dutch cable, it was all legitimate and the cloggies hadn't hacked it (as the rumours at the time were suggesting).

In the meantime, back in the Netherlands, Dutch cable companies are now live streaming BBC1, 2 and BBC Europe as part of their standard package; if you have a smart TV, you can also get Britbox as a subscription service; also Netflix, Apple TV and Amazon if you know how and Disney is just around the corner.

Wow, small world.  We used to watch SSVC down in the south in Eindhoven.  After that, I was listening to BFBS too in Bonn on FM.   I used to drive by RAF Bruggen regularly.  I didn't know there was any BAOR/BFG left out there, thought it was all gone - Monchengladbach was closer to us than Paderborn so when I used to drive  from Bonn North, I used to be able to get BFBS while driving on the autobahn.    Eventually we had Sky in Amsterdam on the dish and we weren't really bothered. I regularly did work down in Bavaria and all of it was AFN, then American military channel and very poor it was too.  Used to come on around Frankfurt Airport.   Here in Hungary, I was at the American school superbowl party in the 1990s and it was terrible.  Adverts were warnings not to walk under ladders!

These days we just use Netflix in a browser.  We use a small "stick" computer to turn TVs into a large screen PC.   It's good enough to watch TV in SD.   We went past our telco this morning to see when it would be open so I could get an upgrade.  Even with out 120/10 speed, we get buffering. 

One of my kids has said Disney is now operating in the UK but the word Disney puts me right off. It'll be all kids stuff.  I know they do other things but I am not convinced.  Others I know have dumped Netflix for Amazon but not convinced there's enough content.  Apple TV is also around and so far produced one series I liked.  My problem is that i don't like their proprietary hardware.  I think we'll start to see mergers and collaborations.  Bit like the OneWeb satellite network - it should really be taken by say Bezos's Blue Origin etc.

Disney has a lot of child content, but also includes all the Star Wars and Marvel stable of films.

Cynic wrote:

Disney has a lot of child content, but also includes all the Star Wars and Marvel stable of films.

My kids are a bit too old and so am I although I've heard good stuff about the live action Aladdin (might be Disney). Maybe good but I don't think I'd feel like paying for it unless it's very diverse and not all a clean cut sugary trip.   We like those SciFi things noted we like but not that much.  As the Scots say, Bing sings but Walt dis'nae. At least for me.

I have not gone looking for a thread about this topic, so apologies if redundant...
I'm having a "discussion" with a Fidesz supporting Hungarian about the recent "Emergency Powers" act and used this graphic (https://i.redd.it/4ai99bzljzs41.jpg) to show that corruption is alive and well in Hungary, placing Hungary near last for corruption, but happily near first for safety. The link between the powers and corruption is that there are no significant checks on Orban, who had demonstrably exploited the virus outbreak for his own personal political agenda.

Wondering your thoughts and the feedback from outside of Bp?

Vicces1 wrote:

I have not gone looking for a thread about this topic, so apologies if redundant...
I'm having a "discussion" with a Fidesz supporting Hungarian about the recent "Emergency Powers" act and used this graphic (https://i.redd.it/4ai99bzljzs41.jpg) to show that corruption is alive and well in Hungary, placing Hungary near last for corruption, but happily near first for safety. The link between the powers and corruption is that there are no significant checks on Orban, who had demonstrably exploited the virus outbreak for his own personal political agenda.

Wondering your thoughts and the feedback from outside of Bp?

These are my thoughts, not those of the Forum.

From the reporting I've read on the matter, specifically on the checks, it would appear that it's not unique to Hungary and is mainly the Press complaining about their own frailty or inability to perform as they wish.  Mainstream media is under threat all over Europe, not from any politician, but from the fact that nobody buys print media any more and in the times of economic issues (during lockdowns etc) that this effect is even more profoundly felt.  It seems that some people have forgotten the old adage in any business that cash is king.  Corruption exists everywhere, I can recall having to pay "charges" in many EU countries to get legitimate consignments over the border without undue interference.  It seemed then that if you put a peasant in a Customs or Policemans uniform, they remained peasants at heart.

It's also true that a significant lump of the media world is left/liberal-biased and find themselves on the wrong end of the pendulum swing in countries where right-wing, national issue politics are more and more attractive to the majority of those that matter (i.e. those with a vote). To put it bluntly, nobody gives a damn if the free press sinks or swims and they certainly should not look for any public funding in order to make sure that somebody holds the politician's feet to the fire.

Personally, I haven't bought a newspaper for many years.  Fake news has been a feature of the Press for a long time and wasn't invented by Trump and/or the Washington Post/CNN; many people nowadays question the validity of press reporting, personally, having lived and worked in many countries around the world, I'm just Cynical (see what I did there?).

Just to add - the UK media are reporting today that Hungary have been awarded billions more in Coronavirus aid than has been given to Italy.  I neither understand, or pretend to have an understanding of how on earth that works, but I can definitely see why the guy on the street is supporting Orban.

p.s. where did that link you gave come from?

Vicces1 wrote:

I have not gone looking for a thread about this topic, so apologies if redundant...
I'm having a "discussion" with a Fidesz supporting Hungarian about the recent "Emergency Powers" act and used this graphic (https://i.redd.it/4ai99bzljzs41.jpg) to show that corruption is alive and well in Hungary, placing Hungary near last for corruption, but happily near first for safety. The link between the powers and corruption is that there are no significant checks on Orban, who had demonstrably exploited the virus outbreak for his own personal political agenda.

Wondering your thoughts and the feedback from outside of Bp?

I'm just outside of BP and you are right to draw the distinction between the city and the countryside.   In the Hungarian scheme of things, the intelligensia is usually referred to as living in the cities and towns and the proletariat are outside.    That usually translates into liberals (i.e. democratic liberals) in the urban area and the conservatives (i.e. Fidesz) outside.

I disagree with Cynic about the media. 

In these times it is even more important to have checks and balances on uncontrolled power.  The executive is normally kept in check by the judiciary (Supreme Court) and Parliament.   The checks and balances are no longer in  place in Hungary.  The Supreme Court is nobbled and Parliament is in Fidesz's pocket.   

The only possible accountability and transparency is through the media and that has been cut to pieces as well.  So now, we're  close to having an autocrat.  The problem with governments is that they run out of ideas, they get old and stale.  The voter should be able to kick them out. 

The next thing here will be - after cutting out everyone else with rule by decree - a delay of elections by say 2 years.  That's enough time to recover from any fall out from COVID19 and to splash some cash in the direction of their supporters.   I wouldn't be surprised if they think they will be kicked out that they resorted to election tricks - annul the results or even just use ballot stuffing.

It's always been the case that politicians never let a "good" crisis go to waste.   Perfect for all sorts of nefarious purposes.

I am going to respectfully decline to comment on the state of the Hungarian media except to say that Orban has bought most of the outlets and shuttered the independent / critical voices. Let's call it what it is, a branch of Fidesz propaganda. It's certainly not independent journalism.

I agree with Fluffy that distinctions must be made between Orban's "simpler base" and the "more aware" and denser population areas.  It is easy to keep your ignorance when never confronted by contrarian examples.

The first 4 things that I am aware of that Orban did with his "extended authority" were:
1. Rescind all delays and reviews imposed by the Bp mayor, Karacsony, on city contracts involving large development projects. This has no effect on the virus, but does facilitate kickbacks and overfunding to Friends of Viktor (FoV).
2. Instate a law forbidding the change of biological gender on birth certificates. I am unaware of the virus being aware of any gender rights, so not sure how this is relevant.
3. Put the business dealings of a major infrastructure project funded by China under "State secrets" that cannot be scrutinized for 10 years.  Again, I do not see a connection to the virus here, but the obvious problems of corruption surface brilliantly.
4. Added 2 seats to make a 5 member ruling council of all theaters receiving federal money (that is almost all of them) thereby ensuring that Fidesz controls every creative outlet. Again, no correlation to the virus.
The 5th thing he did was attempt to enact a rule by decree over local municipalities meaning every decision made by local authorities would have to be approved by Orban himself, but this was withdrawn under massive protest.

When Hungarians say that sometimes authoritative measures are necessary to combat a greater threat, such as this virus, I can absolutely understand that. Most countries have instituted restrictions. However, given that there is no history of Orban moderating his impulses, and excessive and incontrovertible evidence of his corruption and abuse of power, I continue to wonder if Hungarians are that gullible or am I simply being stubborn.  But I still come up short on how to discuss this logically with certain of my Hungarian friends, so I avoid the subject with more passion than I avoid this corona virus!

Hi again.

It sounds almost like the old Communism has returned with a new name badge.

Vicces1 wrote:

I am going to respectfully decline to comment on the state of the Hungarian media except to say that Orban has bought most of the outlets and shuttered the independent / critical voices. Let's call it what it is, a branch of Fidesz propaganda. It's certainly not independent journalism.

I agree with Fluffy that distinctions must be made between Orban's "simpler base" and the "more aware" and denser population areas.  It is easy to keep your ignorance when never confronted by contrarian examples.

The first 4 things that I am aware of that Orban did with his "extended authority" were:
1. Rescind all delays and reviews imposed by the Bp mayor, Karacsony, on city contracts involving large development projects. This has no effect on the virus, but does facilitate kickbacks and overfunding to Friends of Viktor (FoV).
2. Instate a law forbidding the change of biological gender on birth certificates. I am unaware of the virus being aware of any gender rights, so not sure how this is relevant.
3. Put the business dealings of a major infrastructure project funded by China under "State secrets" that cannot be scrutinized for 10 years.  Again, I do not see a connection to the virus here, but the obvious problems of corruption surface brilliantly.
4. Added 2 seats to make a 5 member ruling council of all theaters receiving federal money (that is almost all of them) thereby ensuring that Fidesz controls every creative outlet. Again, no correlation to the virus.
The 5th thing he did was attempt to enact a rule by decree over local municipalities meaning every decision made by local authorities would have to be approved by Orban himself, but this was withdrawn under massive protest.

When Hungarians say that sometimes authoritative measures are necessary to combat a greater threat, such as this virus, I can absolutely understand that. Most countries have instituted restrictions. However, given that there is no history of Orban moderating his impulses, and excessive and incontrovertible evidence of his corruption and abuse of power, I continue to wonder if Hungarians are that gullible or am I simply being stubborn.  But I still come up short on how to discuss this logically with certain of my Hungarian friends, so I avoid the subject with more passion than I avoid this corona virus!

None of this is new to Orban and his cronies.  He's been carrying out this plan for some time.  It's a long game but whatever the plan is, no-one knows.  Maybe it's just get what he can out of it.   

If one imagines the uncertainty of the geopolitics around here, the emergence of a strongman (cast like Putin) would be attractive when any vague enemy manipulated into the psyche of the countryside base.   

It's all very easy to see - demonise an imagined enemy - Soros, the judiciary, the refugees - and then use it to leverage more power. I deliberately left out coronavirus as that's not an imagined threat or manipulation but Orban's clearly an opportunist.  A chance for more power when that turned up.  Almost a gift.   It's not the gift that keeps on giving though as OV is not providing money to his base but the EU will bank roll him for a bit.  It's just bizarre the EU hasn't done anything about him properly.  Funding a country that seeks to undermine the very Euro norms of democracy your institution is built on is just weird.

BTW, Hungary in your point 4 is not a federal state.  It is or was unicameral multiparty presidential democracy.   If it was a federal state then possibly there would be less control by decree.  Most federal states do not allow that level of interference in independent state level affairs.  DT knows that to his cost.  The rest of the points are just a power grab for marginalising whoever they can.   Point 2 I can see being challenged in the ECHR on equality grounds.

It's hard to see where this is going in HU in the longer term - probably grooming his kids for a dynasty like DT or Bush.   In the worst case, OV simply grabs all power and rules forever like Putin or something too big for him to control or manipulate happens.  Maybe he drops dead of a heart attack and without the figurehead the cult of OV finally crumbles.     Maybe it'll just be 20-30 years of OV acting like Lukaschenko.

I know some of you are European citizens, members of countries paying into the EU Funds, including the EU commission's €37bn Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative (CRII).  I, myself, have paid into the taxes of the EU in several countries, all net contributing nations.

So I would like to think my tax Euros are being spent wisely and for the benefit of EU citizens, not propping up "illiberal democracies".  But then I read this (from the FT):

- While Italy received €2.3bn, Hungary, which has a sixth of its population, stood to receive €5.6bn. The inequitable allocation of emergency funding makes plain the need to reform the EU budget process, said Gerald Knaus of the European Stability Initiative. “If this doesn't lead to a wake-up call, then the EU is suicidal,” Mr Knaus told the FT.

Hungary was already the biggest beneficiary of cohesion funds in the last budget, and now are receiving 2.5 times the amount of money for this emergency.  And while it is easy to see why contributing member states should balk at such largesse for any country so corrupt, I wonder if the people in those contributing countries are vocal in their disagreement. Are the French, Dutch, Finnish, and German citizens telling their politicians who seem basically neutered to OV's political games to do something? That they will not support their Euros propping up dictator wannabes?  And yet I see the reaction from these same veto-empowered states as (again from FT):

- Already, countries that are heavy recipients of cohesion funding are warning that they will not accept a redrawing of the budget that diverts money away from them and towards countries that have been worst-affected by the crisis.

Again, these are just my thoughts, I am hoping you all can help my understanding outside of my humble bubble...

Vicces1 wrote:

I know some of you are European citizens, members of countries paying into the EU Funds, including the EU commission's €37bn Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative (CRII).  I, myself, have paid into the taxes of the EU in several countries, all net contributing nations.

So I would like to think my tax Euros are being spent wisely and for the benefit of EU citizens, not propping up "illiberal democracies".  But then I read this (from the FT):

- While Italy received €2.3bn, Hungary, which has a sixth of its population, stood to receive €5.6bn. The inequitable allocation of emergency funding makes plain the need to reform the EU budget process, said Gerald Knaus of the European Stability Initiative. “If this doesn't lead to a wake-up call, then the EU is suicidal,” Mr Knaus told the FT.

Hungary was already the biggest beneficiary of cohesion funds in the last budget, and now are receiving 2.5 times the amount of money for this emergency.  And while it is easy to see why contributing member states should balk at such largesse for any country so corrupt....

Again, these are just my thoughts, I am hoping you all can help my understanding outside of my humble bubble...

Always best to provide the attribution - the report by ESI is (click) here. 

Yup,  it's generally thought  the EU is a toothless tiger and the member states are for some reason all too willing to fund the narrative of Fidesz and the unfortunately named Pis party of Poland.

Apart from the obvious inequity across the EU distribution of cash, the EUR 5.6 billion isn't that much compared to the USD 175 Billion GDP of Hungary

The bigger problem for Hungary would be OV demonising against EU membership.   80%+ of exports go to the EU and to Germany in particular.  Loss of access to EU markets would be a more serious problem.   Rest of the EU is too busy with it's own stuff to care much about Hungary.

So OV will push it but push it only to the very edge but at the moment, he could never take that step over to actually leaving the EU.  His electoral base might baulk at that even if he tries to buy them off.   OV might step over in desperation if he thought Putin could bank roll him but that's unlikely as Russia is in trouble too because it's a petro-economy.  We're in negative oil prices as of today - going to be painful elsewhere too (Iran, Venezuela etc).

One thing which has popped up is the EU's Coronavirus bonds strategy.  That's putting fragmented debt into an consolidation instrument that has formal status rather than random collections of national debt. Unprecedented.  It'll end up with the EU mandating Corona bonds and giving Hungary money as net recipient of cohesion funds to pay it back.  It's an absolute gift.  Lend you money then pay you to give it back!

On the ground, as I said, I think he'll delay elections to give him enough time to recover his mojo post-Corona.  My bet is 18-24 months of election delay.  The HU Constitutional Court will roll over on it.  Parliament is no longer important.   President of HU is a crony or OV has something on him.

I'm a bit confused, should we now declare that the S*** has hit the fan or not?
Waiting on my generous $2,400.stimulus from my gov. per couple...
What is that all about?
This has to mean that paper money is totally worthless if they are willing to give us lowly servants a few bobbles...
Leading the pigs to the slaughter by considering giving an extra $2,000 per month per head... What is going on, no such thing as a free ride.
In Japan they are talking about something like 1,000 Yen per head per month.
Wow, we are reduced to a number.
Believe me we welcome a few extra tokens but we were fine, just fine the way things were going before this,"virus".
I'd also like to know who put Bill Gates in control, who made him KIng?

Vicces1 wrote:

I know some of you are European citizens, members of countries paying into the EU Funds, including the EU commission's €37bn Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative (CRII).  I, myself, have paid into the taxes of the EU in several countries, all net contributing nations.

So I would like to think my tax Euros are being spent wisely and for the benefit of EU citizens, not propping up "illiberal democracies".  But then I read this (from the FT):

- While Italy received €2.3bn, Hungary, which has a sixth of its population, stood to receive €5.6bn. The inequitable allocation of emergency funding makes plain the need to reform the EU budget process, said Gerald Knaus of the European Stability Initiative. “If this doesn't lead to a wake-up call, then the EU is suicidal,” Mr Knaus told the FT.

Hungary was already the biggest beneficiary of cohesion funds in the last budget, and now are receiving 2.5 times the amount of money for this emergency.  And while it is easy to see why contributing member states should balk at such largesse for any country so corrupt, I wonder if the people in those contributing countries are vocal in their disagreement. Are the French, Dutch, Finnish, and German citizens telling their politicians who seem basically neutered to OV's political games to do something? That they will not support their Euros propping up dictator wannabes?  And yet I see the reaction from these same veto-empowered states as (again from FT):

- Already, countries that are heavy recipients of cohesion funding are warning that they will not accept a redrawing of the budget that diverts money away from them and towards countries that have been worst-affected by the crisis.

Again, these are just my thoughts, I am hoping you all can help my understanding outside of my humble bubble...

Interesting but as a none HU citizen this means nada to me.
The world is on fire and no one knows how to stop the destruction.

Marilyn Tassy wrote:

The world is on fire and no one knows how to stop the destruction.

Hardly. Just the western, next day delivery, just in time delivery world is having problems today.

Personally, my home office (had one since 1997) is not affected. Nor is my garden. Still harvesting from my garden from last year"s plantings. Prepper? No. Just a gardener who likes to grow year round.

Compare maps of virus infections globally, by country, versus say climate change effects globally. They are complete polar opposites. The "rich" countries are getting hit by the virus mostly. So it is big new. These maps are not new regarding affects of global climate change. Yet, I have never seen a global action to address the poor countries from climate change (caused by rich countries) like we see to today to protect the rich countries from themselves.

So, the world is not on fire. Just the "developed" world, where cheap and easy transportation of goods and services and people allowed for easy disease movement... and now is disabled. Oh well. Maybe that model is the problem.

So it is all about immediate, local affects and fears. Long term issues are discarded.

Who cares if a few thousand die due to a huge typhoon in the south pacific, as an affect of climate change. Does not even maybe rate the first page in most papers. But if the same number die in LA, or NY.... from a virus..... spread by easy first world travel liberties..... it becomes national headlines....

Think about that..... 

klsallee wrote:

....Yet, I have never seen a global action to address the poor countries from climate change (caused by rich countries) like we see to today to protect the rich countries from themselves.

So, the world is not on fire. Just the "developed" world, where cheap and easy transportation of goods and services and people allowed for easy disease movement... and now is disabled. Oh well. Maybe that model is the problem.

So it is all about immediate, local affects and fears. Long term issues are discarded.

Who cares if a few thousand die due to a huge typhoon in the south pacific, as an affect of climate change. Does not even maybe rate the first page in most papers. But if the same number die in LA, or NY.... from a virus..... spread by easy first world travel liberties..... it becomes national headlines....

Think about that..... 

Rather not think about it.

Actually some developing countries also rely on cheap transport of goods and services - look at PNG or Congo or Indonesia or the Pacific nations.  Some places need planes to get in and out.  Living conditions can be improved by education and providing resources. Again cheap in and out needed. 

I agree that if Corona got into a slum in Bangladesh it'll kill a lot of people.  Won't make the news in LA.   It's the same as a shoot out in a high school - people horrified for a day, a week, a month - then forgotten by a majority and possibly just turn into a movie after a short enough period of mourning.

En beszelek magyarul - koszonom.
And my friends speak English -- you are welcome.
Something about ASSumptions....

fluffy2560 wrote:

Living conditions can be improved by education and providing resources. Again cheap in and out needed.

In theory.

In practice.... Wrong. does not work. Both require money. A lot of money. So no "cheap in cheap out" is going to work. It never will. 

klsallee wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Living conditions can be improved by education and providing resources. Again cheap in and out needed.

In theory.

In practice.... Wrong. does not work. Both require money. A lot of money. So no "cheap in cheap out" is going to work. It never will. 

I dunno about that. 

Plenty of NGOs fly in supplies to hilltop villages and bring with them education which means higher incomes and therefore cash in circulation. 

I don't anyone can argue rationally against  educating men and women on child health or argue against vaccination when it clearly means less infant mortality. 

BTW, I always wondered how Russia was governed before telecoms became more universal.  Moscow to Vladivostok in months by horseback. Communications mean national cohesion.

fluffy2560 wrote:

klsallee wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Living conditions can be improved by education and providing resources. Again cheap in and out needed.

In theory.

In practice.... Wrong. does not work. Both require money. A lot of money. So no "cheap in cheap out" is going to work. It never will. 

I dunno about that. 

Plenty of NGOs fly in supplies to hilltop villages and bring with them education which means higher incomes and therefore cash in circulation.ű.

Flying in supplies is a give away. Name one NGO that has the Trillion dollars bank account needed to actually help on this level forever.

Education requires a generation or more. You can not fly in education and expect it to just "stick". You are missing concepts like knowledge management, local customs, traditions, religion, etc which will fight against your fly in "(re-)education".

Worked with NGO's for most of my professional career. They have their mandates. But those mandates are limited. And their funds are limited. So I overall find most of them very ineffective regarding education. On a broad scale, which is necessary for real effective results. I have worked in training and education for many NGOs, so I kind of know how they "work" (or don't work).

Only a government has the funds and broad pulpit to properly supply proper long term and broad based education, which then takes a generation or two to set root. Because sometimes you are fighting against local culture. And that takes a very long time to educate. On many fronts, and on many levels. Assuming the government works with you, not against you (and the upward trend is sadly to work against educating the populous -- an educated population may actually think... and think against the government).

For example from your comment, you seem to assume one can fly in supplies, like an engine, and fly in an expert to educate someone how to maintain an engine. Then leave. And all is good. Better boat across the river. More transpiration. More money for everyone....

Hmmmm. Well.... No.

Real world: I tell you the story I got second hand, but from a reliable source** about a boat across the Nile that failed many times. Stopping all that cross river commerce. And loosing money for the ferry company. Resent many new engines. And they all failed. Till the tech came down again and learned the locals were not putting in enough oil, despite fly in "education". Because for many reasons. Including the local culture, costs, etc. they just did not "get the education" they were provided, To the German tech, not putting in enough oil was not comprehensible. As in.. Duh... an engine needs oil. But that was German World view. To the locals, it was a totally normal action (saving short term costs for people that make $1 a day made total sense, even if the long term effect was engine failure, because they lived day by day, not year by year, so they had a shorter local economic world view, not a long term Germanic world view).

In short.... The world is complex. It does not work like you think it should, based on your experience or culture alone.

And you trying to fly in and educate others with your world view.... Is not going to work.

**And that is just an example, which does not including my real world, personal experiences being a trainer and educator in Africa and Asia, but has the same conclusion --- education is a long term process. Not a fly in fly out consultant endeavor.

klsallee wrote:

....

In short.... The world is complex. It does not work like you think it should, based on your experience or culture alone.

And you trying to fly in and educate others with your world view.... Is not going to work.

**And that is just an example, which does not including my real world, personal experiences being a trainer and educator in Africa and Asia, but has the same conclusion --- education is a long term process. Not a fly in fly out consultant endeavor.

What makes you think I don't know  about those things as well?  And what works?  And how long it takes?

Fly in the local (national) teacher, then local (national) nurse and leave them there for some months to do do their thing.    Lower infant mortality, greater education, more opportunity.   You can stick other stuff in there as enablers - access to clean water, telecoms or whatever etc.   Might be paid for by a government, an NGO or church, or just foreign aid.

Typically this kind of thing goes on in PNG (for example)  MAF Aviation in PNG Bit of an extreme example but I am sure you can get the idea.  Not my sector or my thing (religion) but I've seen similar things going on all over the world with different agendas. 

I don't usually rate the religious thing as too many strings. Others have their own motives.

I was in the Pacific not that long ago and the involvement of the Mormon church I saw was rather surprising.  I wasn't so much taken aback at the number of churches but the uniformity of their building design. It was almost like a MacChurch or a Holiday Inn, all of a universal but similar design.   Perhaps even kit churches.   

My major takeaway is that they could have used the buildings for other things, not just religious stuff. I could see they all had airco and thought though they could have put some solar panels on the roof of their design or designed it in a more traditional way to improve natural ventilation and using local materials and labour. 

Anyway, I saw all the Mormon elders wandering around doing their thing whatever it was.   They stuck out like clones.   What did they bring to the table?  Not so much from what I could see.  If they were medics or engineers or something working with locals and transferring skills then all good but I thought they looked like clean cut boys and girls thrashing the evil out of the locals through bible studies.

fluffy2560 wrote:

What makes you think I don't know  about those things as well?  And what works?  And how long it takes?

Fly in the local (national) teacher, then local (national) nurse and leave them there for some months to do do their thing.

I don't think you know because you mention and think, and actually included in your comment the word months. That is Corporate, NGO, grant based thinking.

I have worked there for years. And even that is not enough. It takes longer. Months may look great for annual reports for the NGO , but it may take generations to really be effective.

But you are not paid by effective results by generations... Are you?

Months are great for consultants. They get paid well in high contract salaries based on months.

But real results are made only in programs that will out live us. And those are far and few to be found (those take a political will rarely found today). You seem to be an international consultant. As am I. But I get the irony. I am not sure you do.

klsallee wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

What makes you think I don't know  about those things as well?  And what works?  And how long it takes?

Fly in the local (national) teacher, then local (national) nurse and leave them there for some months to do do their thing.

I don't think you know because you mention and think, and actually included in your comment the word months. That is Corporate, NGO, grant based thinking.

I have worked there for years. And even that is not enough. It takes longer. Months may look great for annual reports for the NGO , but it may take generations to really be effective.

But you are not paid by effective results by generations... Are you?

Months are great for consultants. They get paid well in high contract salaries based on months.

But real results are made only in programs that will out live us. And those are far and few to be found (those take a political will rarely found today). You seem to be an international consultant. As am I. But I get the irony. I am not sure you do.

Well, who said it was one person there for months and not multiple people on several months rotations as part of a larger and longer plan?   

Maybe I agree with you generally.   My point originally was reliable transport more about cohesion and society being serviced and improved by cheaper travel as an enabler.

Everyone knows (or should know) it takes years and potentially generations to social engineer a society but there is the altruism of working in public service, knowing chestnuts grow into...well, you know that saying....it's err....an old chestnut.      There those folks who plant trees down the side of a road knowing they take 25-40-100+ years to make a difference in giving shade to travellers or even giving to charity and worthy causes.  Make a small incremental difference and hope it does some good in aggregate over time without necessarily seeing the final outcome.   Maybe just knowing is reward enough.  We should all know that.

And those reports, ticks in the boxes are still required in the here and now - even NGOs want to know where the cash has gone.   Not the effort of just one person so communications by reports still required - to show progress to their support base and coordinate resources.  At a distance, there's not a lot of other ways of showing how things are going.

Even the Mormons have a long term system.   Send out their clone people for a couple of years on rotation.  And they have physical results in their energy inefficient kit McChurches brand recognisable shipped in without local industry or local design knowledge.  Overall, despite the early implementation, It's a classic get 'em when they're young social engineering type effort.

Hungary prepares to end legal recognition of trans people

Hungary's rightwing government looks likely to push through legislation that will end the legal recognition of trans people by defining gender as “biological sex based on primary sex characteristics and chromosomes” and thus making it impossible for people to legally change their gender.

Trans people and rights activists say the law, which has been introduced into parliament as attention is focused on the coronavirus pandemic, will increase discrimination and intolerance towards trans people. Many will try to leave the country, while those who do not have that chance will face daily humiliations.

“In Hungary, you need to show your ID to rent a bike, buy a bus pass or to pick up a package at the post office. It basically means coming out as trans to complete strangers, all the time. The good version is they are nice about it, but there are situations where people turn quite hostile,” said Ivett Ördög, a 39-year-old trans woman living in Budapest.

Hungary's anti-immigration prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has prompted a wave of international criticism during the coronavirus pandemic by adopting legislation that allows him to rule by decree indefinitely. Parliament is still sitting, but instead of focusing on fighting coronavirus, it is dealing with issues such as the new trans legislation.

Bernadett Szél, an independent MP who has opposed the law in parliament's judicial committee, described it as “evil” and “a step back in time”. During a hearing in the committee, she tried to read out a letter from trans people explaining how harmful the law would be for them, but was shut down by the committee's chair, who described the letter as “not relevant”.

Szél also criticised the timing of the bill. “We have a pandemic going on and all of us should be focusing on two things: healthcare issues and helping people financially to secure their wellbeing. What is happening in Hungary is a scandal,” she said. It is not clear when the bill will be put to a vote, but observers say its passage through committees suggests the government is pushing ahead with it.

The law also opens up the possibility that it could target people who have already made a legal change and now live with a gender that does not match their “sex at birth”, the planned new gender category on official documents.

“We think it's likely that they don't plan to go after people who already changed, but we just don't know,” said Tamás Dombos, a board member of the Háttér Society, a Hungarian organisation focused on LGBTQI rights.

Legal experts say the new law will be in violation of European human rights case law, leaving it open to challenge in both the Hungarian supreme court and the European court of human rights (ECHR).

“There's very clear case law on this in the ECHR, so it's very likely it will be challenged soon after it's implemented. But the court takes years, and the decisions are always individual. People will probably get compensation but it won't mean they get new documents,” said Dombos.

Until 2016, the procedure for legally changing gender in Hungary was fairly straightforward, said Dombos, but for the past three years, authorities have been reluctant to implement the law, meaning there is a backlog of people waiting for decisions on their applications for gender changes. “My request has been sitting there for a year, and this new law will mean it will be fully rejected,” said Ördög.

Orbán's government has become more hostile towards the LGBTQ+ community in the past two years, moving from generic language about traditional values and the benefits of heterosexual marriage to openly discriminatory language, such as comparing homosexuality to paedophilia.

“This kind of language was not present before, and now it is no longer just discourse, it's going to become policy,” said Dombos.

Although it will still be possible for people to change their names, in Hungary there is an official register of allowed names compiled by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and this list is gendered. There are no names approved for both genders. “I cannot change my legal name to anything that doesn't give me away as a trans person,” said Ördög.

Even without the new law, life for trans people in Hungary is filled with obstacles. Amanda Malovics, a 30-year-old trans woman, left Hungary in 2015 for London, with one suitcase and enough money to last a month, she said, as she felt uncomfortable starting her transition in Hungary.

In Britain she has changed her name by deed poll, which means that bank accounts, bills and the rest of her life in London can be conducted under her new name. As soon as she needs to travel, however, she is faced with using her Hungarian passport with her old name and gender. She applied to change her gender in Hungary last year but, like others, has had the application stalled.

“I live and breathe as a woman, I look like a woman, I am present in myself as a woman and I identify as a woman, but my ID says otherwise. I absolutely hate travelling, because of this. There's massive fear and anxiety every time,” she said.

Now, she says, she is waiting until she qualifies for UK citizenship to receive a passport in her new name, and at that point will consider making the difficult decision to revoke her Hungarian citizenship. She believes many other Hungarian trans people will also leave.

“It's pointless for me to belong somewhere where I'm not wanted or welcome,” she said.

Also in corruption news...
https://bbj.hu/business/meszaros-firm-a … act_164893

The Hungarian-Chinese consortium that won the tender to upgrade the Hungarian section of the railway line between Budapest and Belgrade includes RM International Zrt., a company controlled by the billionaire investor Lőrinc Mészáros, a key ally of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán

Details of which are considered state secrets and not available for review for 10 years.

Remember, this Is to combat the corona virus!

SimCityAT wrote:

Hungary prepares to end legal recognition of trans people

Hungary's rightwing government looks likely to push through legislation that will end the legal recognition of trans people by defining gender as “biological sex based on primary sex characteristics and chromosomes” and thus making it impossible for people to legally change their gender.

...

Bernadett Szél, an independent MP who has opposed the law in parliament's judicial committee, described it as “evil” and “a step back in time”. During a hearing in the committee, she tried to read out a letter from trans people explaining how harmful the law would be for them, but was shut down by the committee's chair, who described the letter as “not relevant”.

....

Legal experts say the new law will be in violation of European human rights case law, leaving it open to challenge in both the Hungarian supreme court and the European court of human rights (ECHR).

....

Now, she says, she is waiting until she qualifies for UK citizenship to receive a passport in her new name, and at that point will consider making the difficult decision to revoke her Hungarian citizenship. She believes many other Hungarian trans people will also leave.

“It's pointless for me to belong somewhere where I'm not wanted or welcome,” she said.

OV and Co are completely at odds with the majority of the rest of the world.   Next stop after demonising the LGBT community will be other minorities.   This is the MO (modus operandi) for OV and Co.

Strange really that no-one seems to recognise that the world has been here before multiple times. 

Unfortunately the ECHR will  - as the article says - take too long and damage will have been done and it will be generations of pig ignorance again.

I don't know how long this sort of ludicrously excluding behaviour can continue.   

There's no effective opposition right now and the pandemic has just served up perfect opportunity to stick the boot in on any group.

Vicces1 wrote:

Also in corruption news...
https://bbj.hu/business/meszaros-firm-a … act_164893

The Hungarian-Chinese consortium that won the tender to upgrade the Hungarian section of the railway line between Budapest and Belgrade includes RM International Zrt., a company controlled by the billionaire investor Lőrinc Mészáros, a key ally of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán

Details of which are considered state secrets and not available for review for 10 years.

Remember, this Is to combat the corona virus!

Yes, this one has been around a few days.  It's hardly surprising who is involved.   It's all about the Chinese Belt and Road plan.  The EU requires capitals to be connected.  So I wonder if  EU money is going into this.  If it was then there would be more scrutiny.

I've not read anything about EU money going to this.  Articles I've read state that it is 85% financed by China, 15% by Hungary.  However, no terms and conditions, rates, or details are known other than the obvious of who benefits...

Of course the EU finances far too many things in Hungary for Orban's benefit (like receiving more money to combat the corona virus than either Spain or Italy). Money not used from the internal budget can go to finance other things.

Vicces1 wrote:

I've not read anything about EU money going to this.  Articles I've read state that it is 85% financed by China, 15% by Hungary.  However, no terms and conditions, rates, or details are known other than the obvious of who benefits...

Of course the EU finances far too many things in Hungary for Orban's benefit (like receiving more money to combat the corona virus than either Spain or Italy). Money not used from the internal budget can go to finance other things.

Makes you wonder how much longer the EU will look the other way, how much it'll take for them to intervene and what they will do about it anyway?

The only way out of it for the EU is probably to kick Hungary out but where's the voice of reason amongst the rest?  Random guess is we're probably 40% of the way there now.   

My ongoing prediction is that if HU did leave the EU, then Putin and China will step in to replace that influence.  Then we're back to recreating a version of Comecon and re-establishing that buffer zone with the West.   Putin has always wanted that back.

Well it is a Chinese loan (for the above project) and Hungary is very much beholden to Russian energy...
With oil prices negative, Putin will want some friends but doesn't have money.
With exporting excess Renminbi, China has money but low resources...
Seems Hungary will very happily use both of them.

The country imports around 90% of its oil and natural gas, almost all of it from Russia. Some 90% of coal used is produced domestically. Electricity generation comes mostly from nuclear and coal, with natural gas contributing about a fifth to the total electricity generated in Hungary in 2016 and 2017.
- OECD.org

Vicces1 wrote:

Well it is a Chinese loan (for the above project) and Hungary is very much beholden to Russian energy...
With oil prices negative, Putin will want some friends but doesn't have money.
With exporting excess Renminbi, China has money but low resources...
Seems Hungary will very happily use both of them.

The country imports around 90% of its oil and natural gas, almost all of it from Russia. Some 90% of coal used is produced domestically. Electricity generation comes mostly from nuclear and coal, with natural gas contributing about a fifth to the total electricity generated in Hungary in 2016 and 2017.
- OECD.org

That's a good overview.   

Yes, Putin's in the doldrums with the oil price but it's bounced back a bit.   It's quite a problem for the USA too.  Below something like $40-50 (or thereabouts) it's uneconomic to produce within the USA and therefore a vote loser as they will cap wells in a flash and lay off workers.   

But perhaps this is a case of last man standing economically.    I've don't really understand why the USA doesn't physically invade Venezuela (for securing alternative friendly oil)  or Cuba (geopolitics of having an enemy on your doorstep).  If Russia can storm into Crimea and the Chinese take the South "China" Sea without anyone doing anything, then why not?   I can sort of see the logic of not taking on Iran - basket case on its own and a waiting game as it implodes on its own.   The Chinese are playing the long game. 

Amongst all this, yes, there's lil' ol  Hungary.   It's a European problem.  A blip.  If you look at Saudi, they've been oppressing and corrupting people for years while the world stood by. Makes Hungarian politics look like polite tea party. No oil here, nothing important, who cares?

That nuclear power station expansion will bring the electricity production up to 70% I suppose.   From what I've read, there's a pathetic feed in tariff for solar produced energy (i.e. typical small scale 4kW systems on houses).  To get any useful subsidy back one needs to be producing more than 50kW which is quite a size.  I was in an Aldi and there was a power meter at the door showing how green their panels were.  It produced about 22 kW.  If you look at the standard Aldis that means you need about 2.5 Aldis to reach that commercial scale.   I think this has been set to force the majority of people to buy the nuclear generated electricity.

I can answer one question from the standpoint of oil. Although Venezuela has the largest petroleum reserves in the world, it is mostly in a state that is difficult to extract.

Add to this the political situation where they need foreign expertise to extract the reserves and you have a formula for disaster and economic ruin. The current low prices are making it unprofitable for those shale sands of Canada and the US, as well as for Russia. I read recently that the US needs $38/barrel to make a profit, the Russians $32/barrel, and the Saudis $28/barrel.  With that in mind, I see Brent crude at about $20/barrel and even less for US crude.

Meanwhile, U.S. shale producers have continued shutting down oil-drilling rigs. Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil dropped by 60 to 378 this week, implying further declines in domestic oil output.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oi … 2020-04-27

Venezuela's crude oil is very heavy by international standards, and as a result much of it must be processed by specialized domestic and international refineries.

The technology needed to recover ultra-heavy crude oil, such as in most of the Orinoco Belt, may be much more complex and expensive than that of Saudi Arabia's light oil industry. The USGS did not make any attempt to determine how much oil in the Orinoco Belt is economically recoverable. Unless the price of crude rises, it is likely that the proven reserves will have to be adjusted downward.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuela

The fallout from this will be felt for years to come.

Vicces1 wrote:

I can answer one question from the standpoint of oil. Although Venezuela has the largest petroleum reserves in the world, it is mostly in a state that is difficult to extract.

Add to this the political situation where they need foreign expertise to extract the reserves and you have a formula for disaster and economic ruin. The current low prices are making it unprofitable for those shale sands of Canada and the US, as well as for Russia. I read recently that the US needs $38/barrel to make a profit, the Russians $32/barrel, and the Saudis $28/barrel.  With that in mind, I see Brent crude at about $20/barrel and even less for US crude.

Meanwhile, U.S. shale producers have continued shutting down oil-drilling rigs. Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil dropped by 60 to 378 this week, implying further declines in domestic oil output.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oi … 2020-04-27

Venezuela's crude oil is very heavy by international standards, and as a result much of it must be processed by specialized domestic and international refineries.

The technology needed to recover ultra-heavy crude oil, such as in most of the Orinoco Belt, may be much more complex and expensive than that of Saudi Arabia's light oil industry. The USGS did not make any attempt to determine how much oil in the Orinoco Belt is economically recoverable. Unless the price of crude rises, it is likely that the proven reserves will have to be adjusted downward.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuela

The fallout from this will be felt for years to come.

Nice overview.     

I was looking at the Strategic Reserves of the USA and the storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma.  There's only about 144 days reserve due to the capacity limits on withdrawal.   So the bottleneck is actually the capacity to get it in and get it out. 

Seems like Venezuela is going to collapse if there's cheap light coming out of Saudi.  Putin must be rather concerned - maybe financing his international adventures would need to be curtailed. 

I saw some reports that Saudis could sustain $1 a barrel and put US producers out of business.   Only problem with $1 is there's nowhere to send it.

We're all going to die.....

........(not really, not today anyway).... but there is maybe news of an advance party for an alien invasion or other apocalypse.

Large Asteroid hurtles somewhere in the vicinity

If lockdown goes on much, I might welcome a break with alien invasion.

In the search for intelligent life, perhaps the aliens would currently avoid the Earth?

Vicces1 wrote:

In the search for intelligent life, perhaps the aliens would currently avoid the Earth?

They could enslave us for evil deeds. 

If  they have the knowledge to get here then we're pretty unlikely to pose any threat technologically.

Maybe they can cure the coronavirus?

I for one, welcome our alien overlords.