Tariffs for Everyone
Saw the amount for Philippines goods going into the USA is 17%. I know some clothing gets shipped to the USA. Wonder what other products are involved. Saw the rate for Vietnam is 46%, supposedly they had about $100 billion worth of exports to the USA last year, lots of electronics and furniture.
This is pretty much worldwide, including closely allied nations such as the UK.
Tariffs will make imported goods more expensive, but that only works if your home supply is competitive.
All this will do is force US inflation up and up.
However, it is also going to hurt exporters as US markets collapse.
It's a lose lose situation.
As for expats, more than a few who deal with exports to the US will be out of work.
Economists refer to Mr T’s tariffs as Beggar My Neighbour . I remember playing the titular card game as a kid. Of course being a card game there was always a winner.
With tariffs everyone loses in the long run.
The madness has begun fueled by one man’s ignorant blindfolded dogma.
The emerging market economies of Asia are especially vulnerable. Although the Philippines is not a big exporter (apart from Labour) it will be hit by the fallout.
LOL and only a dumb Aussies thoughts.
These tariffs should have been released April 1 and would have cemented the clown factor. As said I might be a little dumb but see the only major hit will be the US consumer that apparently are already hard pressed to buy groceries.
Only my understanding but many western countries including Australia lost industry because we couldn't compete with cheap labour from other countries, Oz doesn't make cars anymore and a big hit to our economy but we didn't slug huge tariffs on imports that I know of as we lost our competitive edge.
While many countries were hit hard I can't get my head around Oz being slugged with a 10% tariff considering we import twice as much produce from the US than we export to the US and then for the clown to state that US beef can't be sent to Australia is an outright lie while claiming Oz sends over US 3B of beef to the US and it's not fair,,,,,,,, the US buys our beef to fill up the fast food chains because they can't supply, not enough stock. Expect a price hike in your fast food outlets as well as the supermarket.
Initially the ones that are going to pay are the US voters while suppliers look for other competitive markets and eventually no more Big Mac's.
800 billion or a trillion dollars to purchase US nuclear submarines counts for zilch? Won't bother us Aussies as we will find other markets like we did when China had a hissy fit because we questioned them on Covid and hit us with 200% tariffs on many items, funny when they finally woke up we couldn't supply their needs as over years we found other markets, interestingly though China is our biggest trading partner and makes up 37% of our exports.
New world now and we will learn to adapt, while painful initially will probably come back and bite the clown and his voters, the innocent souls along the way as we can already see with share markets correcting to accommodated what is yet to come.
OMO.
Cheers, Steve.
Just found out that the 46% on Vietnam and the 48% tariffs on Cambodia are because Trump feels China is setting up production in these countries to avoid US tariffs on Chinese goods.
It has been said that Donald Trumpofski was recruited as a Russian agent back in the eighties and if there is any truth in that rumour then what he is doing right now would make sense. Because in reality, if a Russian agent was able to get elected as the President of the United States with orders from Putin to destroy the US economy and all of the US departments of state and institutions including the Pentagon then I guess this is exactly how he would go about it.
Not really working mugtech as from memory China is hit with a 34% tariff. One simply has to see that manufacturing most products in many countries moved overseas because the labour is far cheaper.
Simply look at call centres etc. etc.
Now? if you live in the US if you want a BYD car over a Tesla you are going to pay 34% more, interestingly I wonder how much the Tesla car will go up given foreign sourced components.While the clown calls it the most important day in US history, we will all see especially those that live in the US. Free trade agreements are gone and other markets will be sought to not prop up a US deficit. Seem to remember 1st term Trump racking up some 7 or was it 8 trillion more to the debt.
Who is paying for that now? The ramifications will be wide felt but more so by who?
OMO.
Cheers, Steve.
Moscow controlling Trump, or that being a silly tin foil hat job, simply doesn't matter - the upshot is the same.
The Dollar is slowing becoming less attractive, and business with the US is looking like more trouble than it's worth.
However, at the same time, China is telling the world it will work with them in solid, stable, trade relationships with added investment.
Any political take you may hold hardly matters as the end result will be the same.
Trade was shifting to China before Trump, but the acceleration is the stuff of rocket ships.
From a pure expat point of view, that means more work potential from Chinese companies than before, just without the US. I gather the same is going for post grad research. The US was always the goal, but I gather Chinese unis are scooping up the best and brightest from US unis.
Some expats will lose everything, others will gain
@Fred
He listed every country in the world with a tariff figure next to each one.......... but no tariffs on Russia hahaha
I believe the number for China was being set at 54% tariff. Based on a few articles I've seen. This of course will be the most explosive to inflationary costs to people living in the USA. Next would be Mexico and Canada as they're the next largest exporters to the USA (or are they the largest two?).
Both Mexico and Canada export cars and car parts for assembly to factories in the US. Auto prices will likely skyrocket in the US. As an ex-trucker, I can't imagine how much my old Freightliner Cascadia with full sleeper, assembled in Mexico would be today after these tariffs. I'm guessing conservatively it would be in the neighborhood of $240k usd. And currently in the US shipping rates for truckers are way below the peak 2020-2021 rates. Truckers are struggling now. But slowing the economy will crush many because the freight won't be there to carry and everyone will go lower and lower to get the loads, until they just go bankrupt or sell off.
Then there's food costs from Mexico and Lumber and oil from Canada. Both of which will directly hit the pocketbooks of residents of the USA. I'm fearful of how badly this will effect people that are currently living pay check to pay check.
It's going to be a tumultuous time for the next couple years. I'm glad I'm here in the Philippines!
I knew a couple of chaps who went to study, then work, in the US.
Both have returned home as they feel the general situation in the US is deteriorating, but also because they felt their personal safety was in question.
Both are well educated professionals, and both have taken valuable experience away from the US.
I've read press stories about this happening, but I now have 2 from the horses' mouths.
I even see these tariffs hit 2 remote islands inhabited by penguins, no people @ 10%.
Also the way they have derived the figures for some countries like say Vietnam, oh they charge us 90% so we will charge them 46%. Truth is Vietnam only charges a 9% tariff on exports to the US.
It's out and out B/S and it's biting hard globally.
Yesterday the Oz stock market dropped 1%,,,,,,,, today in half an hour 2%,,,, Swings and merry go rounds.
There are many things at stake here and while sure globally there will be suffering, I think what's more the issue here is now the credibility of the US in the eyes of the world has moved markedly in the wrong direction.
As Findlay mentioned, nothing for Russia? Perhaps something really nasty which might get Putin to pull his head in and give Ukraine all their sovereign land back including the lands stolen since 2008.
OMO.
Cheers, Steve.
There are many things at stake here and while sure globally there will be suffering, I think what's more the issue here is now the credibility of the US in the eyes of the world has moved markedly in the wrong direction.
Cheers, Steve. - @bigpearl
Some might argue it's the right direction.
As for Russia, you can't put tariffs on imported goods that don't exist.
The shift is very much towards China and its nonviolent, mutual benefits trade policies.
Indonesia is a perfect example of a win win relationship with China. its previous relationship with the US brought nothing significant to Indonesians, but out closer trade ties with China has brought massive infrastructure projects and lots of solid jobs for locals.
A car journey from Cirebon to Jakarta was a full day thing 10 years ago, but Chinese investment in toll roads means you can take the trip, have a business meeting, get lunch, and be back home before you would have got to Jakarta in the old days. Or you can take a train. You could always do that, but Chinese investment in the railways means much better carriages, and reliable trains that run on time.
The new mass transit network in Jakarta is unbelievable. It's cheap, clean, and safe.
The London underground isn't even close. I'm told the New York subways and the various elevated trains in the US are as dangerous as they are filthy. Guess who funded the Jakarta system.
The new, Chinese funded, high speed rail looks stunning. That will stretch from Jakarta to Surabaya in a few years.
I bought a new portable monitor yesterday. This ulta-thin 14.5 inch unit has a stunning picture, is a few mm thick, and was really cheap. I have four units for various jobs. They are all the same manufacturer, but improvement over the years tells a story.
My first is still in daily use - it's great - but the newer ones show progressive improvements over time. The thing is, quality goes up, but the price remains stable.
These, amongst other reasons, are why I suggest the eyes of the world are moving the right direction.
After all, the US 'weapons, war, and nothing' version of trade comes a very poor second to the Chinese 'build and make life better for everyone' verson of trade.
@Fred
Agree to disagree please. No tariffs on Russia but tariffs on 2 islands inhabited by only penguins? 10%.
While I have nothing against China nor the people I do view some of Xi's standover tactics as very unfriendly to neighbours, claiming the whole South China Sea as their righteous property, human rights and the list goes on.
Thing is though Fred they do make some pretty good products these days and super competitive with pricing as opposed to a lot of crap sold years ago.
We have a Chinese made Haima S 5 for 6 years now from new and a good car, guess what the next one will be? A BYD Sealoin 7 once released in the Philippines and you know why? Because they are churning out decent products at very competitive prices.
China like Russia should keep to their own backyards though.
Sure while China does some great work around the world there are normally caveats that come with it. Russia on the other hand?
Hate to admit it Fred as 10 years ago I thought very differently, now I see China will rise to the new world economic leader, China has a long term plan, not one term or 10 years but 100 years and it's paying off while countries run by clowns might mean well for the people and economy one simply has to look at current events. As always.
OMO.
Cheers, Steve.
@Fred
Agree to disagree please. No tariffs on Russia but tariffs on 2 islands inhabited by only penguins? 10%.
Cheers, Steve. - @bigpearl
The world would be a boring place if everyone was the same.
As for penguins, Trump is a very forward thinking man. He realised their potential to evolve into a massive trading group very much as China has done. The difference is, Trump's plan covers millions of years.
I applaud him.
Very true Fred, like the old song "I'm an individual" thing though is that while many have successful long term plans others change their mind like the wind and it does wear thin, thing is that's not needed running a country and becomes tiresome and untrustworthy while the voters are hoping for direction/cohesion and success have found a clown that might amuse children but not other world leaders, thinking human beings, said it before the rabbit burrow can be quite deep.
As for applaud?
OMO.
Cheers, Steve
@Fred.
China like Russia should keep to their own backyards though.
Sure while China does some great work around the world there are normally caveats that come with it. Russia on the other hand?
Cheers, Steve. - @bigpearl
China always did. They had to change to protect trade from foreign aggressive carrier fleets in their backyard.
Relationships with China have a downside in so much as countries that do so throw the lot in. They become dependent countries, but also far richer ones with better everything.
Yes Fred the new world order is coming far quicker than I ever imagined. End of the day though I see my share portfolio drop near 7% in a month while sure ups and downs on world markets it will surely get worse and while I dropped 250/300K in a month there is only the clown to blame this time around. it comes and it goes but long term gains as we can see are easily eroded by mismanagement.
I seriously wonder how the Musks and likes are feeling now? Clowns are for a laugh and not running a country.
My rant and my opinion only.
Cheers, Steve.
Anyway, political points aside, the upshot is a massive change for working expats.
EU countries are now issuing travel warning against the US, and that's just tourism.
I see a very different world in a very few short years.
Professionals are leaving the US for home or other countries, and even highly qualified US citizens are taking their skills to China.
They realise moving to a more modern, cleaner, and safer country like China is good news for them.
Politics as seen very much these last months weigh in heavily on working expats as well as retired expat no matter country as it hits the hip pocket and living situation as well as future unknown decisions because the chess board seems to change daily. I do feel for the US citizens with what is coming and sincerely hope the same mistakes are not repeated,,,,,, time will tell and reveal what is down the rabbit burrow. A home on the beach suits us and very glad I put myself in a situation where the debacles matter little.
Cheers, Steve.
Glad I moved most of my IRA into an annuity a few years ago.
@bigpearl
Politics as seen very much these last months weigh in heavily on working expats as well as retired expat.
In some respects retired expats in the Philippines who are reliant on either a state pension and/or a private pension suffer the most as they are unable to work their way out of the economic malaise which is affecting the world economy. Like you Steve my Vanguard private pension has taken a massive hit in the last few weeks but I am self employed and can still work even though I reached UK retirement age in January and receive a UK (don't spend it all at once and will be taxed at effectively 50%) state pension.
The currency markets as you would expect are quite volatile and depending on your nationality the Trump tariffs may work in your favour. £ sterling is riding high against the Peso so for our expat British friends in the Philippines Mr T has given you a pay increase (don't forget to send him a xmas card lol). Our American expat friends who voted Republican have by now probably had the smile wiped off their faces. US$ is down at least for the moment and will probably trend downwards in the coming months. Bob's medication has just got that much more expensive.
Cherry Anne your imminent visit to Cebu to see your new GF means you can afford to splash out on some pasalubong for her 
Don't load up on Pesos though as in a couple weeks sterling maybe even stronger.
~
Thanks all, intelligent and interesting discussions gents.
And for additional depth, here's another response today..
[SCMP newspaper article quoted in full follows ..]
"Outside In | Real threat posed by Trump’s tariffs worse than a global recession"
The US president cannot be allowed to replace world’s hard-won multilateral compromise and cooperation with bullying bilateralism
United States / World Opinion : By David Dodwell (Published: 4th April 2025)
Whatever the megalomaniac hubris of US President Donald Trump in imagining his administration can bring the world’s economies to heel in his quest to “Make America Great Again”, the reality is the outcome of this tariff madness will depend not on Trump, but on how the world responds.
It will depend on whether the world recognises that the primary threat is not the potential for a tariff war to trigger a global recession and where the worst of this will fall, though this would be threat enough.
Rather, it is whether Trump succeeds in demolishing the fabric of the multilateral compromise and cooperation that have driven economic development and poverty reduction over the past seven decades, replacing it with a pattern of.. bilateralism.
This might suit the US, as the world’s largest economy, but would be catastrophic for most of the rest of the world.
As Alan Wolff, former World Trade Organization deputy head and now a fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, argues, with the US accounting for just 9 per cent of the global goods trade, the future of rules-based trade primarily depends on the rest of the world.
Simon Evenett and colleagues at the Lausanne-based International Institute for Management Development have argued that with the exception of a tiny group existentially reliant on the US (mainly Canada and Mexico), even in a worst-case tariff war, most economies could, if necessary, replace virtually all of their US trade with statistically modest growth in trade with other countries.
Trump slaps 34% (+20% earlier) reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports as part of ‘Liberation Day’ package
Even though the US was the world’s largest single importer in 2022 (importing goods worth US$3.13 trillion), ignoring other leading importers like China or Germany, the 233 economies that make up the rest of the world’s import markets accounted for US$16.6 trillion – five times the size of US imports.
The crux is whether governments get divided, bullied and browbeaten into bilateral haggles with the Trump administration, or stick together in support of multilaterally agreed rules of trade.
Even if the US sticks aggressively to its divide-and-rule strategy, so long as other economies stand together, the harm inflicted by a US trade war would be limited. “America first” would become “America alone” as other economies reduce their reliance on the US market and focus instead on building trading relations with countries that have a healthier respect for the cooperation, compromise and coordination intrinsic to multilateralism.
Trump and other recent US administrations have talked about the importance of remaining committed to the “international rules-based order”, and I’m sure somewhere, buried deep down, in the chaos of the past 10 weeks there remain many in the US administration who claim to retain such a commitment.
But it is important to emphasise that when US officials talk of a rules-based order, they are light years away from supporting the principles of compromise and cooperation at the heart of multilateralism. Rather, they are talking about a world in which the rules are drafted, endorsed and enforced by the US.
(Trump won’t let Europe turn Uncle Sam into ‘Uncle Sucker’, US defence chief says)
As such, much of the US discontent with the alleged erosion of the rules-based order is that others have increasingly sought to play a role in drawing up the rules. As Stewart Patrick, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted in a recent commentary: “Traditionally, globally dominant powers have been reluctant to accept significant constraints on their freedom of action.”
Unlike small economies that lack bilateral clout, relying heavily on the compromise and cooperation at the heart of multilateral agreements, economic giants like the US are strongly tempted to prefer the unilateral and bilateral options open to them. As a result, the US has been ambivalent and selective in its engagement in, or support of, multilateralism.
This was vividly illustrated in a recently released index of countries’ support for UN-based multilateralism, which revealed the US has ratified only around 60 per cent of major UN treaties, has since 2018 voted with the majority in the UN General Assembly less than 25 per cent of the time, and introduced nearly 180 “unilateral coercive measures” since 2010 – over three times more than any other UN member.
As a result, out of 193 countries ranked for their support for multilateralism, the US came in last – below Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea.
(Trump stops US engagement with UN Human Rights Council and Palestinian relief agency)
As the study suggests, when the US talks of a rules-based order it refers to “the set of behaviours or rules favoured by the United States and its allies”, rather than multilateral compromise and cooperation. It explains why the new US administration has embarked on a 180-day review of whether it should support or withdraw from all international organisations, conventions and treaties – including the United Nations and WTO.
Countries scrambling to work out how to respond to Trump’s tariff agenda therefore need to recognise the threat is about more than trade. It is about whether multilateral cooperation is going to be forced to yield to bullying bilateralism.
As the Carnegie Endowment’s Patrick put it: “This ‘stop-the-world-I-want-to-get-off’ mindset is based on the fantastical assumption that the United States can replicate the capacities of multilateral organizations and the global public goods they provide.”
The priority for governments (and business organisations) must be to resist Trump’s siren calls for bilateral arm-wrestling, and instead meet urgently to agree on a common response, not just on trade, but on all those other global challenges (such as climate change and the threat of pandemics) none of us can resolve alone.
The imperative is to respond using global (multilaterally agreed) rules, and to refuse to allow might to become right.
David Dodwell is CEO of the trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access, focused on developments and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific over the past four decades.
--
@PalawOne
Thank you Palaw One for that informative link. May I add a complementary link below to an interview on BBC Radio 4 (3 April) between Evan Davies the 'PM' news presenter and a regular guest on BBC current affairs programmes, Robert Reich who was labour secretary under Bill Clintons administration. A cerebral deep thinker who I personally have alot of respect for. Fast forward to 34 minutes into the programme.
Once upon a time you wanted your neighbours poor so they could make you cheap stuff. Now economic theory shows you want your neighbours rich so they can buy the overpriced crap you produce. As stated succinctly above, Trump's tariffs completely miss this point, whereas the Chinese embrace it completely. But to understand Trump you have to look more widely. He's president of a country that's nearly bankrupt, has huge challenges cutting expenses and a political class that won't increase income taxes. Tariffs are pretty much the only way he can raise the money he desperately needs. The long-term consequences will be someone else's problem.
But to understand Trump you have to look more widely. He's president of a country that's nearly bankrupt, - @Brojeslov
And there goes Trump's problem. The US has a massive national debt that won't go away any time soon. They have overspent their way into a debt that's very difficult and expensive to manage.
As with the UK, they have a very expensive workforce and few products any country wants to import.
Their home products are expensive to the point foreign goods, once the cheap and nasty domain of the poor, are now cheap and high quality. That has pushed US domestic manufacturers into a corner.
They got away with it while the Dollar was the world's trading currency, but BRICS, assisted by Biden taking Russia's money, is changing that rapidly.
Countries are worried but, just as importantly, corrupt leaders with hidden Dollar holdings (Panama/Paradise papers etc.) are concerned about losing their assets.
Both are moving to non-Dollar trade.
Local currency trades, and even barter have other advantages:
- Only one forex transaction instead of two for businesses that don't want Dollar holdings
- Non-Dollar transactions are not subject to US law
- The Dollar is unreliable, so causes price fluctuations that can be mitigated by avoiding it
This leaves the US with serious problems. If the Dollar loses its position, and it is doing so, US debts will be unpayable so the country will go bust.
Experts were all saying things would move very slowly, always citing previous collapses such as the Pound, but they fail to note massively improved communications.
News from Singapore used to take weeks to get to England, but a WhatsApp message takes less than a second.
Things move far faster now, and that's bad news for the US.
Trump has one thing right, he must do something quickly, but smashing everything in a very short time will only accelerate a crash.
There's little doubt the world will suffer, but China will offer a softer landing the US won't be allowed to access.
That leaves the US with two choices:
- World war 3 to destroy China
- dismantle its world forces to save money, retreat back to the US mainland, and do what it can to lessen the massive depression it will face.
The sad thing is throughout history governments foolish decisions affect those that can least afford the fallout. This time it's a beauty with ramifications globally felt not only with battlers but many businesses will fold and up goes the unemployment rate.
Simply look at the 10's of thousands of DOGE layoffs, previous taxpayers that will now be lined up for social security adding to the burden on the failing system.
Very glad I am financially secure and happily retired.
Cheers, Steve.
`
The Arse of the Deal? 😉
Quoting below: SCMP: US-China trade war / China Diplomacy
"Does China’s ‘epic response’ to Trump tariffs signal end of hopes for meaningful talks?"
- Beijing offered a series of concessions in Trump’s first term, but has now hit back with tariffs of its own in response to his latest measures.
- China hits back at US with 34% tariff on American imports
- Trump says China could get tariff relief if it approves TikTok deal
By Orange Wangin in Beijing and Enoch Wong in Hong Kong
Published: 10:30pm, 4 Apr 2025, Updated: 10:43pm, 4 Apr 2025
China reacted to tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s first term in office with a strategy of phased concessions, but this time round it has adopted an unyielding stance with a massive package of retaliatory measures.
Observers said the shift stemmed from changes in the trade dynamics between the two countries and the upending of the global landscape by Trump’s agenda.
The Chinese authorities fired off a blitz of policy announcements – notably 34 per cent tariffs on all imported American goods to match the latest US levies on Chinese goods – on Friday, a public holiday known as the Ching Ming or tomb-sweeping festival.
China’s decision to hit back swiftly – rather than seek immediate negotiations – may signal a shift in strategy, said John Gong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.
“Beijing likely sees little room for meaningful talks or suspects Washington has no real interest in negotiating,” Gong said.
“It’s also notable that China is the first among the affected countries to strike back, which could mark an escalation in the tariff war.”
He said that the country had long expected a breakdown in economic ties and “prepared accordingly” while a “substantial decline in trade is no longer seen as a surprise”.
China’s comprehensive tariffs on US products could be called “an epic response”, said Zhou Xiaoming, former deputy representative of China’s Permanent Mission to the UN Office in Geneva.
He said China may have abandoned any illusions about the Trump administration and had probably made a “warrior cutting off his own arm” resolution to abandon the US market.
Zhou said that while many countries worldwide opposed Trump’s approach but were too timid to act, China was taking a “leading” role in the global pushback against his trade policies and in defending the multilateral trading system.
He said that the US was now clashing with the entire world, not just targeting China as it did a few years ago. “The US has isolated itself, making many enemies … while China’s potential friends have increased,” he said.
Although Trump’s 34 per cent “reciprocal tariffs” on China – on top of 20 per cent tariffs he had already imposed – were higher than many projections, the move should not have come as a shock given that he had previously threatened 60 per cent duties on goods from China.
Some Chinese analysts had already warned that Beijing would need to consider the worst-case scenario for relations between the two.
“The US-China economic and trade relationship is moving towards ‘decoupling’,” Li Wei, director of the Centre for American Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, told an online forum hosted by the China Macroeconomy Forum think tank last Saturday.
“Once 60 per cent tariffs become the norm or a long-term trend, trade decoupling between China and the US may only be a matter of degrees,” he warned.
Chen Qi, deputy director of Centre For International Security And Strategy at Tsinghua University, told the event the two countries had mismatched trade perceptions, with China looking for stable relations while the US appeared to be trying to exploit Beijing’s sense of uncertainty to make a deal.
He also said that Beijing favoured a bottom-up approach – resolving technical issues at a lower level before taking it to a higher level – while Trump preferred top-down deal making.
Chen also noted that America’s trade deficit with China had been widening. “One fundamental reason is that the list of what the US either cannot or does not want to sell to China is getting longer and longer,” he added.
China had already responded to Trump’s previous tariff increases with a series of measures.
Even though these targeted only selected American products, it signalled that China was tapping into a range of tools, including sanctioning more than two dozen US firms and restricting exports of critical minerals, which were included in the latest package.
However, the Chinese Commerce Ministry has said it is still committed to dialogue.
Its current strategy differs from its response to the 2018 trade war, where it promised to increase imports of US agricultural products and energy, as well as reduce tariffs on certain American goods to advance trade negotiations.
It is also a far cry from the response of countries such as Vietnam, Japan, Israel and India, which have offered concessions such as lower tariffs on US goods or promising more imports from America.
China’s trade dependence on America has been declining in recent years as it has sought new export markets, while the weight of foreign trade in the Chinese economy has also been waning as it has looked to the domestic market to boost growth.
The trade war Trump launched against China in 2018 failed to halt the continued increase of China’s export share in the global market or prevent its manufacturing value-added from holding steady at roughly one-third of the world’s total.
Trump said on Friday his policies “will never change” despite China’s reaction. He has also said he would be willing to offer tariff relief for China if it approved the sale of TikTok’s US operations.
--
This is all a game to Trump, always has been and he like the spoilt school yard bully cares little for those he is stepping on as long as in his mind he is the winner, the people that voted for him will feel it the most. Good on China for retaliating.
Trump trying to use tariffs as a bargaining chip for a take over of US TikTok from Bikedance? Simply shut it off from US users if his administration is concerned with spying.
As said the rabbit hole is deep and like Alice was wondering, is there a bottom to this?
To Fred and only an opinion, if a war was called on China thus creating WW3 I would hedge my bets on who would win. While one is pushing away allies with tariffs etc. the other is fostering strong relationships with their allies who are also nuclear armed. One can only hope the stupidity never gets to that.
You don't treat your friends like this, will come back and bite.
None of this will stop me purchasing Chinese products these days as the tariffs are directed one way by 2 countries.
All this affects us old retired farts to a degree but it's our kids and grandkids that are really feeling the economic pinch as well as dealing with an ever hotter world, they don't have the opportunities that us oldies were offered, sad times.
OMO.
Cheers, Steve.
To Fred and only an opinion, if a war was called on China thus creating WW3 I would hedge my bets on who would win. While one is pushing away allies with tariffs etc. the other is fostering strong relationships with their allies who are also nuclear armed. One can only hope the stupidity never gets to that.
Cheers, Steve. - @bigpearl
Easy.
Nobody would win, but one side might come off as slightly less of a loser.
True Fred, very true but the current playbook while not as bleak will affect all countries and again I can see who is going to come off second best with this madness. Most see it now, foolish at all levels.
Cheers, Steve.
~
Haha .. Fred .. for certain, there will be some winners (?)
For one example .. tada! .. CANADA!
"Make Smuggling Great Again"
Canada’s ultimate retaliation for Trump’s tariffs will be to turn ordinary Americans who cross the border to shop for cheaper goods into latter-day bootleggers.
By David Frum April 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/04/trump-tariffs-smugglers/682303/
President Donald Trump’s high-tariff regime will impose higher prices and lower growth on Americans.
It will have another effect that nobody in the administration seems to have considered at all: a tsunami of smuggling.
In a few days’ time, every desirable consumer good will be dramatically more expensive in the United States than on world markets.
Flat-screen TVs, athletic shoes, video-game equipment, even household basics such as coffee, toilet paper, and soy sauce—all will soon cost 20, 25, 35 percent more than they cost on world markets.
Trump has just opened perhaps the greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of world trade.
His effort to repeat the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s will also replicate the cross-border bootlegging of alcohol during Prohibition.
From around the world, goods will flow to American black markets.
That flow will overwhelm U.S. enforcement capability.
Only about 26,000 officers in the Department of Homeland Security are charged with enforcing customs duties at borders, seaports, and airports.
Policing flows of fentanyl has been difficult enough, trafficked by some of the world’s most vicious criminals .. (the rest behind net paywall)
Haha, Americans smuggling will be a goldmine for both Canada and Mexico 😎
Saw the amount for Philippines goods going into the USA is 17%. I know some clothing gets shipped to the USA. Wonder what other products are involved. Saw the rate for Vietnam is 46%, supposedly they had about $100 billion worth of exports to the USA last year, lots of electronics and furniture. - @mugtech
I did a little checking against our own experience. We purchased a USA-made clothes dryer (the only kind that works here) for about 50k php. It is Westinghouse brand. In the US it is much cheaper, probably $350 or so but we must consider shipping and dealer mark-up for a slow selling product. I consider it a fair price. I checked with deepseek and found the Philippines tariff on US white goods and this would be about 5% but you must add to that their12% VAT which brings us to 17%, exactly matching Trump's reciprocal tariff. So in this case it works out. I think the largest driver of the Trump 17% tariff on the Philippines is their 12% VAT on all imports (according to deepseek ai). I suppose I should find out the previous US tariff on the Phils...probably between 2 and 5%.
"Make Smuggling Great Again"
Haha, Americans smuggling will be a goldmine for both Canada and Mexico 😎 - @PalawOne
I have to admit, as a chap who is as honest as the day is long, I had not considered that.
However, small scale smuggling, especially in states that border Canada, might well be a thing.
Then we come to large scale, organised crime ...... Watch this space.
Interesting danfin, never thought about it the way you mentioned. So that means that all imports are hit with a 12% VAT as well as tariffs to bring it into the country and then when you purchase the product you get slugged another 12% VAT at the checkout. Double dipping?
Aside 14 years ago we purchased a front load washer and the dryer stacked on top, both American Home so assumed made in the USA but maybe wrong, the pair as a set were about P30K (yes 14 years ago) and when we moved to Oz gave it all to the outlaws, they wore out the washing machine in 5 years (wanted us to pay for repairs lol) the dryer they never used as couldn't afford the power to run it, it's in our garage now and used 2 or 3 times a year through the wet and so far still going strong.
We used to avoid buying products from some countries but these changing times have changed my mind.
Cheers, Steve.
"Make Smuggling Great Again"
Haha, Americans smuggling will be a goldmine for both Canada and Mexico 😎 - @PalawOne
I have to admit, as a chap who is as honest as the day is long, I had not considered that. However, small scale smuggling, especially in states that border Canada, might well be a thing. Then we come to large scale, organised crime ...... Watch this space. - @Fred
`
Same here Fred .. it wasn't till one read item quoted above that one thinks of the likely tax-avoidance ramifications.
However, he's right, it's obviously going to be yet another huge problem for American society. It occurs to one that perhaps it might make the old days of simple American alcohol prohibition look like cops and robbers.
It won't be just one product, alcohol, but it will make literally everything the likely subject for tax-avoidance. What an absolute mess Trump's making for Americans.
Am i wrong gentlemen? Hope so :-(
This is going to be interesting to watch.
The make smuggling post was a bit of an eye opener as everybody is concentrating on the primary issues such as job losses and inflation, but this brings up secondary possibilities.
If small scale smuggling happens, will this make criminals out of honest people, and what will that do to their lives?
Would organised smuggling bring with it the violence we associate with drugs or prohibition?
Higher prices might well make second hand good more attractive. I had a very sweet business that bought, repaired/refurbished, and sold second hand electronics. It's a very lucrative game, but only works in a poor society where significant numbers can't afford new equipment.
A rise in the number of such shops might well be an indicator of wealth in the country.
I wonder what other possibilities there are. I suppose the extreme is Hoovervilles appearing all over the US.
It sounds silly, but it would have been just as unbelievable a week before the great depression hit.
Sometimes fools have to wallow in the mire created until they come to their senses.
It appears the current government/s in Oz care little with a 10% tariff as we sell little to the US, beef and resources and import twice the quantity from the US against what we send them. In the end the wise know who wears the extra cost, the US consumer.
Like when China slapped ridiculous tariffs on Australia, sure it hurt but we found new markets to buy our produce and moved on,,,,,,,, 4 years later the tariffs were removed and seems we couldn't supply their needs, pays to diversify. Long term? Who suffered the most? The fools imposing the tariffs.
OMO.
Cheers, Steve.
Like when China slapped ridiculous tariffs on Australia, sure it hurt but we found new markets to buy our produce and moved on,,,,,,,, 4 years later the tariffs were removed and seems we couldn't supply their needs, pays to diversify. Long term? Who suffered the most? The fools imposing the tariffs.
OMO.
Cheers, Steve. - @bigpearl
I'm unsure, but I think the wine tariffs were about Australia wanting to push a line about covid. When that went away, so did tariffs. Australia also suspended its WTO action.
The upshot, as I understand it, was that wine lost all popularity in China.
It looks as if the tariffs did the desired job, as Australian wine hit big problems
https://www.wineaustralia.com/market-in … ort-report
However, unlike US tariffs on goods, China had lots of alternatives.
The US has far fewer options as their manufacturing base is as limited as it is expensive. Wine tariffs in China simply meant people got drunk in different ways, but they caused no pressure on the people's wallets.
Another problem is appearing. Not tariff, but tourism.
I keep hearing reports about Canadians skipping holidays in the US, but this is worse.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 … ion-centre
Stories like this of ordinary people stuffed into dark holes when they just wanted a cheap holiday can't help what already appears to be a bruised tourist industry.
The arrested Taliban guy is one thing, but locking up harmless tourists is quite another.
Stories of that nature will add to the already poor reputation the US immigration service has, and that's going to hit US pockets.
It seems something like 4 million UK tourists visit the US every year, so changed minds will be a problem for US businesses, and stories like the above will do exactly that.
Edit - Just found these
https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/2025 … -to-the-us
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