Tariffs for Everyone

I thought that maybe Spence had taken a sabbatical. Either that or I upset him with my pills gag.

It would certainly be an interesting thread if Bob was still around, lol.

I'm not an economist nor very clever by some opinions but I simply look at it this way.

Free trade. If I go to the local baker and he wants 300 pesos for a loaf of bread but I can walk next door and buy the same product for 200 pesos? We had a good Kabab store in town for years (Turks) and were 85 pesos each, they lasted 2 years as you could walk across the road to the night market and buy exactly the same thing for 50 pesos,,,,, no need to be a rocket scientist to work out why they went broke.

I have run businesses since I was 21 in many industries and the key to success is having a very sharp pencil if you want the sale or contract. You need to be competitive and that's why Australia lost all its car manufacturing industries among others because we couldn't compete, high wages/conditions and I will ad an expected lifestyle contributed to this big time. Very lucky we have plenty of resources in the ground or we would be a 2nd or 3rd world country.

Blaming other countries for your woes? Never saw the expensive baker impose tariffs on the shop next door,,,,,,, BTW the expensive baker closed his business a few months ago, no brains and couldn't compete.

Australia needs to buy a new pencil sharpener or we too will be left behind. Happy to be retired and simply watch the circus.

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

"Make Smuggling Great Again"

Haha, Americans smuggling will be a goldmine for both Canada and Mexico 😎 - @PalawOne
I have to admit, as a chap who is as honest as the day is long, I had not considered that.
However, small scale smuggling, especially in states that border Canada, might well be a thing.
Then we come to large scale, organised crime ...... Watch this space. - @Fred

Anybody who has crossed the Canada border.in either direction since 9/11 will know that smuggling cigarettes, liquor, groceries and even Cuban cigars have a much harder time getting across the border and even worse now.

I think the reason why mugtech, who started this thread, has not posted much on his topic is because he found out the rationale behind the US's charging 46% on Vietnam exports to the US, while for Philippine goods, it’s only 17%

"  Just found out that the 46% on Vietnam and the 48% tariffs on Cambodia are because Trump feels China is setting up production in these countries to avoid US tariffs on Chinese goods." - @mugtech

Mugtech, Bob, I, and a few other members on this forum voted for Trump. So far, he is doing what he promised in his campaign. No biological men in women's sports, border security, removing violent terrorist illegal alien gangs who have done such unspeakable violence towards Americans, imposing tariffs, stopping the flow of fentanyl, DOGE, reducing waste, fraud and abuse by the government, especially those involving NGO's, attracting foreign investments to the US, giving jobs to those who have been displaced by unfair tariffs (even Nancy Pelosi, back in the '90's acknowledged that losing local jobs caused by non-reciprocal tariffs between China and the US was a problem, but did nothing about it), lowering the cost of gas, etc.   

I voted for Biden in 2020, and I deeply regretted it. No thanks to mainstream media. The Biden administration put others first, from Ukraine to illegal aliens, before Americans. They drove America into chaos, led by a man who was in severe mental decline (evident when he said "We beat Medicare!"), and whose condition was denied by his own party even after the Presidential debate. So, is it bad that Trump is putting Americans first before the world in a way that he truly believes in and promised?

The US's raising of tariffs could be a losing situation for other countries. But for Americans, we won't know until after a year or two, because this is something different. Putting America first is something different, something that hypocrite Pelosi did not have the guts nor care to deal with when she saw the problem with non-reciprocal tariffs. Will the tariffs help create American jobs, move investments to the US, stop the flow of fentanyl, force neighboring countries to strengthen their borders, revive certain American industries, create a trade surplus for the US? I think they will. But only time will tell.   

Russia? No tariffs but I bet the penguins on 2 uninhabited islands are desperately trying to get an audience with the Trump administration for a motion to reconsider the 10% imposed on their islands.

Cheers, Steve.

@Fred

American immigration has always had a bad reputation for bullying but these latest reports are really something else. Usually the horrendous experience of being banged up by a petty ICE official with an axe to grind is limited to young people, people of colour, or those poor buggers seeking asylum, not middle-aged middle-class white tourists (like me) yet if you read the cases in the media everyone is at risk. And the excuses for being denied entry and detained are frivolous in the extreme: your itinerary prior to reaching the USA; possession of trade or finance journals or anything suggesting an 'interest' in employment; not knowing the intimate details of people you will be staying with (eg because you're house-sitting) etc); suspicion of harbouring political views critical of the administration. I have to say I doubt I'll be travelling to the USA under this administration

Mugtech, Bob, I, and a few other members on this forum voted for Trump.  - @FilAmericanMom

Wrong.  I changed my registration from Independent to Republican so I could vote against Trump twice a year.

Mugtech, Bob, I, and a few other members on this forum voted for Trump.  - @FilAmericanMom Wrong. I changed my registration from Independent to Republican so I could vote against Trump twice a year. - @mugtech

I don't know how that works. I have voted in two countries, and you can vote how you like in both without registering for anything except the usual voters register.

Saying that, I get a few funny looks here, but the local officials know the family well so I never get questioned.

So, how does it work in the US?

@Fred

I believe mugtech is referring to the Republican Primary, where a Republican can vote for the party's candidate for US President, and the national Presidential Elections.

         In PA the May primary only allows one to vote in the party primary in which you are registered.  There are separate ballots for Republicans and Democrats, an independent can only vote on non nominating questions, if there are any.

There should be zero tariffs. 50 countries have already agreed to the zero tarrifs

There should be zero tariffs. 50 countries have already agreed to the zero tarrifs - @Okieboy

Tariffs can be used to benefit any given country, but these are targeted at specific products for specific reasons.

Mass, ill thought out, tarifs that are intended to cure decades of decline, but without offering real choice to customers, are exceptionally silly.

The fool put his foot in it again calling a billion people peasants? A little hypocritical given his past.

The US put itself in deep debt over decades with many countries (except the penguins though they were slugged also) and now wants everyone to bare the cost to pull it out of the hole instead of being competitive and building wealth.

Love the formulae to arrive at incoherent tariffs on most countries, interesting that Oz was slugged 25% on steel and aluminium and then a further 10% on everything else even though we buy twice as much from the US compared to what they purchase from us, there appears to be no rhyme or reason in this latest disaster aimed at all.

Picking on Asian countries is a very bad move as this may well create a unified cohesion within the ranks which is exactly what the US doesn't want.

In the mean time the world is burning.

I will add that my portfolio has dropped some UA 350/380K in the last month, it will come back, simply takes time, long haul.

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

My main concern now is the new threats against Chiina.

Tariffs at over 100% might well make China consider if their Dollar/US debt holdings are worth the bother.

If they decide to dump, things will move very quickly.

I suspect BRICS countries will get prior warning, likely in the hope others will do the same.

From my point of view, that will hmmer the money markets in a million ways,  so predictions will be more of a wild stab in the dark than guesses based on assessment of the situation.

Since most of my savings are in what was a safe investments in the money markets, I have concerns.

I will lose 10% of  my profits by changing, but I am moving to a safe investment that is government insured.

Next up is pensions. If the UK doesn't buck its ideas uup, the Pound will drop like a stone. I'm  enjoying a very nice rate at the moment  so pensions and cash from some work I do over there is amplified.

If the Pound falls, I can expect a lot loss. If the UK sticks with America, it's chances of dropping into depression are for too high.

What will that d to  my pensions, and will they get to me at all?

Nowconsider US / UK potential sanctions against BRICS countries. That would mean I lose access to my UK cash. I don't think the UK would engage in that stupidity, but who knows.

Yes it's very sad Fred, ATM it appears WW3 will be played out economically and as said I think we all know who the winner will be.

I was watching an interview with professor G, thinks that's the name and he was saying exactly what I said many posts ago that western 1st world countries workers won't sit in a factory all day doing piece work on low wages. He used an analogy that say now we can purchase an iPhone for 1K, with the tariffs it will now cost 2K and if it was made in the US it would be 3K.

As a 65 Y/O through my life if I got into debt and many times I did I always worked my way through my responsibilities and became reasonably wealthy with hard work and good decisions.

You have to remember who is running the US now and has a pretty shady history when it comes to business and avoiding responsibility, every one else is to blame,,,,,,,, now it's playing out again except he is entertaining with the big boys now. This will end up with a lot of hurt and sorrow and hopefully no bloodshed.

I really feel sorry for the average workers worldwide who as always will be expected to pay for poor choices made by the people they put into power.

On a brighter note, yet another perfect day on the beach.

Cheers, Steve.

On a brighter note, yet another perfect day on the beach.

Cheers, Steve. - @bigpearl

In these troubled times, a bright note is always welcome.

Mine is the 'me' day I enjoyed yesterday - A whole day looking at radios  and aerials. It was wonderful, and I found a lovely coffee shop.

After weeks off looking, I found some insulators I need to finish  an aerial project. They are actulally vibration dampers, but they will  serve very nicely in their new job.

Yes, I am a geek.

Yes and while off topic, brighter days and futures are what are important, as a retiree with no financial issues the days are my own and an abundance of choices unlike the battlers simply trying to put food on the table.

Geek? No Fred you have a hobby or many and should be enjoyed, keeps the brain active and while you enjoy run with it.

I have no hobbies aside from share markets, world news, watching our worker performing like a machine and two large Labradors that are really big kids and love the walks and a swim in the ocean and of course my JD and cigarettes, 10:30 am here and the better half is still in bed and while the world revolves there is no interest from his quarter,,,,,, sad. Doh, he just appeared.

Aside for those in a comfortable financial situation we can ride the storm but for many with a looming tidal wave?

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

   Just found out that the 46% on Vietnam and the 48% tariffs on Cambodia are because Trump feels China is setting up production in these countries to avoid US tariffs on Chinese goods. - @mugtech

This should be a cautionary tale for the Philippines.  If you cheat like China, you will be treated like China.

   Just found out that the 46% on Vietnam and the 48% tariffs on Cambodia are because Trump feels China is setting up production in these countries to avoid US tariffs on Chinese goods. - @mugtech

This should be a cautionary tale for the Philippines.  If you cheat like China, you will be treated like China.

BP writes, "Yes and while off topic, brighter days and futures are what are important, as a retiree with no financial issues the days are my own and an abundance of choices unlike the battlers simply trying to put food on the table ...Aside for those in a comfortable financial situation we can ride the storm but for many with a looming tidal wave? Cheers, Steve- @bigpearl

Of interest, here's an opinion of the Chinese side to this looming storm ..

"China’s political system could give it an edge in the trade war with Trump, experts say"

The Chinese system could be an advantage in a US trade war, but both countries could face ‘real harm’, according to experts

By Yuanyue Dangin in Beijing, and William Zhengin in Hong Kong

Published: 10:00pm, 8 Apr 2025  Updated: 10:39pm, 8 Apr 2025

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3305713/beijings-political-system-could-give-it-edge-trade-war-trump-experts-say

[Photo caption: As US President Donald Trump targets escalated tariffs at many countries including China, experts are debating if the Chinese political system would be an asset or liability in a punishing trade war. Photo: AFP]

China’s political system – where state power and social control are dominated by the ruling Communist Party – could give Beijing an edge in a new trade war with the United States compared with other countries, experts and insiders have said.

But they warned that Chinese companies and local governments may lack the creativity to respond to a tariff war, as they rely on directives from the powerful central government.

US President Donald Trump stunned the world last week by announcing hefty new tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, including many of America’s closest allies. Chinese goods were hit with 34 per cent tariffs, and Beijing soon pledged reciprocal duties.

Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, said China’s state-led administrative system had more room for “macroscopic prevention, adjustment and shifting to deal with the huge impact of the trade war on its economy and industry”.

If the trade war led to a sharp drop in China’s exports to the US, it would “have a catastrophic impact on the economy and damage people’s livelihoods and social stability”, Zhu said.

But China’s system would help the authorities address challenges, Zhu added.

China vows to take ‘countermeasures’ after Trump’s new 50% tariff threat

A political scientist based in eastern China, who asked not to be named, said the country’s advantage was that “the state level has more power and more means to control society, and it can even give direct orders to enterprises”.

William Hurst, Chong Hua Professor of Chinese Development at the University of Cambridge said, “tariffs will cause real harm but this will not have a determinative impact on the Chinese economy”.

He said China was facing serious challenges to social and economic stability that were mostly domestic and had little to do with the US, referring to the country’s slowing economic growth.

Despite several measures introduced by Beijing to improve the economy, prospects for employment and income growth remain fragile, while a protracted property market slump and feeble investor confidence have significantly impacted household spending, undermining hopes for reviving the economy through consumption.

Experts agreed that a trade war between the world’s two largest economies would most likely worsen China’s domestic economic situation.

Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, said China’s internal unity was “not very solid” because of the economic downturn and high unemployment.

“People’s livelihoods are the most real things, and weak employment and incomes are big problems,” said the political scientist in eastern China.

But it would be unlikely that China would see mass protests over issues such as rising prices, as in the US, he added.

The view was not shared by David M. Lampton, former president of the National Committee on US-China Relations and professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins University.

“This would almost certainly threaten domestic political stability in both countries given that legitimacy in our two systems rests substantially on economic performance,” Lampton said.

“Within days of last week’s promised hike in US tariffs, there were demonstrations across every state in the union. How certain can Beijing be that the same laws of political and economic physics do not apply to itself?” he added.

Analysts also warned that, under the impacts of a tariff war, the Chinese system could cause society to lose “vitality”.

Zhu, of Nanjing University, said the Chinese system was poor at “mobilising social vitality” to enable enterprises to be competitive and resilient.

“Under China’s system of concentrated power and corresponding ideological tradition, there is little room for initiative, creativity and exploration in society except at the top leadership level,” said Shi, from Renmin University.

“China does not have US-style elections. This has given Chinese leaders a longer planning horizon and a greater degree of freedom in handling domestic policy,” said Deng Yuwen, former deputy editor of Study Times, the official newspaper of the Central Party School.

“But they still need to respond to the demands of the Chinese people, including jobs, security and growth to reaffirm their legitimacy,” he added.

An official source with knowledge of China’s overall response preparations said an entire task force had been mobilised in Beijing that included not only key economic agencies, such as the ministries of finance and commerce, the People’s Bank of China and economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission, but also the propaganda and security departments, and social agencies to forge a “comprehensive response plan”.

“This is going to be a protracted war,” the source said.

“China’s formidable apparatus for maintaining political and social stability amid economic hardship is another source of confidence. By contrast, China’s leaders believe that over the long term, Trump is ill-equipped to withstand the political pressure that his tariff policies will generate,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director of US-based consultancy Teneo.

--

While I respect your opinions FAM I have to wonder why you say China is cheating. It's simply business and while China outsources to other countries to reduce manufacturing costs it simply learnt the tricks from the US who have been outsourcing for decades to reduce production costs as wise businesses do.

The funny thing is that the US is exporting the apparent illegals that will gladly work on farms and in factories for a better life and do the work that is apparently beneath the expectations of the average US citizen. Ask yourself why and again why the US has a 36T debt.

Said it before that while sure I see my investments dropping (how low and how long is a guess) I like many expats can weather the storm but the average soul will feel stupidity bite into the food that goes on the table, think of your kids/grandkids.

Yes the Philippines I have watched the cost of living here rise buy around 30% over the last 10 years but not the average workers wage and seriously wonder how they survive, an extremely resilient people and my hat is off to them but they deserve better.

As always.

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

Just found out that the 46% on Vietnam and the 48% tariffs on Cambodia are because Trump feels China is setting up production in these countries to avoid US tariffs on Chinese goods. - @mugtech This should be a cautionary tale for the Philippines. If you cheat like China, you will be treated like China. - @FilAmericanMom

Is being better capitalists cheating?

At the end  of the day, this is all about being the best capitalists, and China is winning hands down

"China’s political system could give it an edge in the trade war with Trump, experts say" - @PalawOne

There's no 'could'about it. China  runs a one party, one mind, long term plan to be the best. Unlike democracies that have policies that blow around like leave and have to bow to public opinion,  China just gets on with it.

The US has 170 miles of high speed railways.

The UK has a pathetic 71 miles.

China has 27,000 miles, and that means rail travel is easier than short/medium haul air routes.

China's political system gives them  a massive advantage.

No matter what Trump does, his policies can't beat China.

As a note, the Chinese system is very popular in China as it  has taken them from  a country of poor farmers to a country that imports more BMWs than any other country in the world.

One has to ask Fred where they learnt that from and again coming back to bite.

When one makes a mistake you can't expect others to pick up the pieces.

Cheers, Steve.

@Fred

There's no 'could'about it. China  runs a one party, one mind, long term plan to be the best

The problem with each of the great superpowers is just that:  the ‘one mind’ of both Trump and Xi Jinping. Both set in their ways but at opposite ends of the political spectrum. Both surrounded by a cabal of yes men who dare to advise & correct where necessary. Xi Jinping has much to answer for in the way he handled Covid and the subsequent property slump.

Two bull headed fixed in their old ‘I know best’ dogma

@Fred
There's no 'could'about it. China runs a one party, one mind, long term plan to be the best
The problem with each of the great superpowers is just that: the ‘one mind’ of both Trump and Xi Jinping. Both set in their ways but at opposite ends of the political spectrum. Both surrounded by a cabal of yes men who dare to advise & correct where necessary. Xi Jinping has much to answer for in the way he handled Covid and the subsequent property slump.
Two bull headed fixed in their old ‘I know best’ dogma - @Lotus Eater

I understand China tried to hide covid but I can't say for certain as I don't have all the required information to make an accurate determination.. or an educated guess.

Trump and the US far right did their best to destroy the US national response.

https://doggett.house.gov/media/blog-po … -responses

However, I disagree with you about the US and China being at opposite ends of the spectrum.

Whilst China hangs on to the communist name, they display all the best traits of capitalism.

I believe they are roughly the same set of capitalists, but the supposed Communists are better at it.

I have not yet looked at who is carrying this one

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 … ic-deepens

If the very left wing paper has this right, it's time for me to shift my cash as quickly as possible.

However, the Guardian tends to publish truth that suits its political agenda, so hang on before you believe it.

Oops

https://www.cityam.com/us-bond-market-o … lds-spike/

Not looking good for many people

It appears that tariffs are causing big fluctuations in the bond market, and investors are pulling their cash

Even worse, there are rumours that China is using a bond selloff as a weapon against the latest tariff threats.

https://www.cityam.com/china-vows-to-fi … ff-threat/

I have just called a bank and arranged for a safe account to transfer to.

I think it's time to shift to a safer option.

That fat slob in the White house is costing me money as a direct result of his silly antics.

Russia? No tariffs but I bet the penguins on 2 uninhabited islands are desperately trying to get an audience with the Trump administration for a motion to reconsider the 10% imposed on their islands.
Cheers, Steve. - @bigpearl

Perhaps, Steve, you didn't realize that 1) those 2 islands are actually a part of Australia...which would make them and the fisheries said to operate there subject to whatever tariffs apply down under and 2) I am not sure if Australia is trying to negotiate a trade deal with Trump or not but if they do, I would expect the outcome to be far more beneficial to the American worker than our trade policy has been for the past 50 years (left wing communist penguin narrative aside).lol

Donald Trump is the new Liz Truss, wolf-warrior tamed to pussy cat by the reality that investors not voters rule the world. Liz’s austerity budget crashed and burned on the bond markets, Trump’s tariffs have just done the same. I was watching the markets the other night and when it became apparent that the price of US government debt was going to approach the level of Greece in its post COVID fiscal crisis unless something was done, sure enough Trump’s announcement on the 90-day ‘pause’ came out. I don’t know where he goes from here - try and salvage something by negotiation I guess. Right now I imagine he wishes he’d tried that first

Perhaps, Steve, you didn't realize that 1) those 2 islands are actually a part of Australia...which would make them and the fisheries said to operate there subject to whatever tariffs apply down under and 2) I am not sure if Australia is trying to negotiate a trade deal with Trump or not but if they do, I would expect the outcome to be far more beneficial to the American worker than our trade policy has been for the past 50 years (left wing communist penguin narrative aside).lol
- @danfinn

Left, absolutely

Commie - not really

Comedians - definitely

Perhaps Dan the brains trust that drafted these tariffs need to sharpen their pencils? Do a little homework instead of rip tear bust?

The 25% tariff on steel and aluminium and the 10% tariffs on everything else encompasses Australia and all its territories and include some 8,222 islands including the 2 colonised by communist penguins.

As for the stupid tariffs? Australia cares little as the US is a small trading partner and we actually purchase twice the amount of goods from the US compared to what we export to Uncle Sam.

No need to ruffle feathers with a spoilt child as we are clever enough to know that if you want our products the extra costs are simply passed onto the US consumer and if you don't want them there are plenty of other markets.

I foresee the sufferers will be the US public and the many that can least afford increased prices.

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

          Back to 10% for the Philippines for 90 days.   And the beat goes on.

Could change tomorrow mugtech, perhaps this afternoon, who knows when a clown is running a country.

What I can't understand is I thought these tariffs were supposed to be imposed on countries that the US had deficits with yet Australia is the other way around and still slugged, probably many other countries.

All this crap is more fun than a decent movie.

Cheers, Steve.

     Back to 10% for the Philippines for 90 days. And the beat goes on. - @mugtech

The instability and lack of any obvious policy cause even more  problems.

The markets have no idea which side of bed Trump is going to get out of, so they are understandably worried.

I have set up a new account for my cash - it pays about 30% less,  but is far safer and has government insurance.

Unfortunatly, my bank is dragging its feet and not answering messages at the moment.

I will be most displeased if I have to go down there because they can't answer a ruddy WhatsApp.

I don't think Trump knows what side of the bed today will bring let alone what is up or down and then there is the foolish damage created, I'm sure will continue in the near future.

I hope you didn't pull your cash out of the share market Fred, as we know long term is the winner but OMO.

Fred I'm down a few hundred K so far and not concerned, swings and merry go rounds. It will correct in time.

Cheers, Steve.

I don't think Trump knows what side of the bed today will bring let alone what is up or down and then there is the foolish damage created, I'm sure will continue in the near future.
I hope you didn't pull your cash out of the share market Fred, as we know long term is the winner but OMO.
Fred I'm down a few hundred K so far and not concerned, swings and merry go rounds. It will correct in time.
Cheers, Steve. - @bigpearl

No. The cash is in forex. I just examined my latest statement.  Yields are down quite a bit over the last quarter.

The new investment account pays less, but the insurance is a good move.

I will enjoy slightly lower profits, but that's the price of safety.

No losses at all.

     Back to 10% for the Philippines for 90 days. And the beat goes on. - @mugtech

That's less than the Phils charges us. Have you ever tried buying anything shipped from America here? 50000 peso dryers, 150 dollar tariff on a DHL shipment declared at $300.00? The US stopped shipping laptops here because laptops worth $400 were selling for $800.00.  10 percent is nothing compared to what they charge us. But we are America so I suppose the world deserves low tariffs from us.