Fallout from Asylum

"So here's the question: How unfriendly will things become for expats if/when Ecuadorians start losing their jobs? This situation is making me think twice about my plans to move to Quito later this year – hopefully the situation will be at least clarified by then"

Boy Bob,
I think the question you pose is a valid one, and one that many of us share that are in country now. As you know, I am currently going through the visa process, and I can't think these tensions bode well for any of us, especially those of us that are in limbo, so to speak. Time will tell, but I for one am on pins and needles awaiting to see the Ecuadorian governments final reaction to this. The government seems to want to pose as if it's a non issue, but again, how is the populace that is actually affected financially going to react? Hopefully, they will still see the dollars passing from our hands to theirs as a good thing
I am " Anxious in Cuenca "

Stay Well,
Neil

Bloomberg is reporting that Ecuador has cancelled trade pact with the US

BobH wrote:

So here's the question: How unfriendly will things become for expats if/when Ecuadorians start losing their jobs? This situation is making me think twice about my plans to move to Quito later this year – hopefully the situation will be at least clarified by then.

Good question. Time will tell.  I am sure CuencaŽs "brain trust" of bloggers and webmasters would say there is nothing to be concerned and that you should continue to purchase real estate, travel magazines, books, landing guides, Coopera certificate of deposits, etc.

P.S.
This is how Ecuador trys to justify their own behavior with respect to human rights.

In a pointed jab at Washington over Snowden's revelations on data-gathering by NSA, Alavarez said Ecuador offered $23 million per year to the United States to finance human rights training.

Yes it does seem tricky to try to predict what will really happen when the flowers business would have to pay import taxes in the USA.  I'm sure you guys in country could pull the old  "That's why I left the USA, to get away from that and spend my dollars here in freedom-loving Ecuador."  It does throw another unknown into the mix for those folks like BobH on the cusp, but it would seem in another 2 or 3 months the results should be clear.  Nards has the right take on the local media, I am sure it will be entertaining for some, confusing and discouraging for others.  Let's hope cooler heads prevail and the changes and damages will be minimal.

US market is not the only one in the world. In fact few weeks ago a cargo plane flied full of flowers to Dubai.

Also it looks like this economic agreement it wasn't to be renewed anyway so Ecuador decided to be the first one to say no more.

Valid issues and questions my friend. My personal opinion is that just like every tariff the US implements that country's cohorts buy the products from them, repackage them and then ship them circumventing the tariff's attempts to stem the flow of goods.

How many countries can we tariff against without whiplash? the SA countries need to be our allies because of their geographical impact and other resource issues. Besides don't we have enough enemies and couldn't we use some more friends? I don't know buddy, it's all kind of bizzaro to me.
lets hope our Senators and Congressman remember these small issues before hot heads pull the wrong triggers

My thoughts:

- The Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) provides duty free import on fresh-cut roses, fruits, vegetables and tuna.  Exports to the U.S. would not be prohibited, but duties may apply.  So, these industries and jobs will not disappear.

- The numbers I find are that the U.S. represents 40% of Ecuador exports (not "more than 50%") or approximately $9 Billion.

- Ecuador is the only country remaining in the pact; Bolivia, Colombia and Peru withdrew.  Therefore, the impact of the program costs might outweigh the overall economic benefits.

- Despite what Washington may say, of course the U.S. uses foreign aid grants and preferential trade pacts as diplomatic weapons so many Ecuadorians might see renouncing the pact with national pride.

- I'm not certain what was going to be expected of Ecuador to secure a renewal of the pact in July and wonder whether it was going to be denied.

- The larger impact to Ecuador might be its declining oil exports.  Certainly far less oil is imported in the U.S. now as it will within a decade become an oil exporter again.

- Correa will definitely point blame at the U.S. for any economic woes and continue to demonize Washington, but as the Iranians used to shout:  "Death to America, long live Americans" the Correa government itself will not likely want to discourage American citizen investment in Ecuador.

Nards Barley wrote:

I am sure CuencaŽs "brain trust" of bloggers and webmasters would say there is nothing to be concerned and that you should continue to purchase real estate, travel magazines, books, landing guides, Coopera certificate of deposits, etc.

I have no doubt that if International Living addresses the issue at all, it will be to say, "No problemo. Come on down!"

Or, in six months, if there are problems, perhaps this approach: "With Ecuadorian property prices down because of recent turmoil, now is the time to buy!"

Years ago a friend of mine overseas commented "When big governments fight, small people cry." It is true.

Of course we'll have to wait to see how everything unfolds, but right now I am apprehensive that these larger disagreements will filter down to us little people who will pay the price.

More bureaucratic run-arounds, stricter visa examinations and requirements, tit for tat political boondoggling. I've seen it before, it happens.

I am afraid actually that the US/Ecuador international situation will continue to deteriorate and that those of us waiting in the wings to move to Ecuador are going to have a much harder time. For me, all of this could hardly be worse. I am not optimistic that the situation will improve. This could very well be a long term diplomatic downhill slope.

Not good for the small people.

The African saying is "When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers."

I hope by the time I am ready to come down there (at the end of the year) we will know how this plays out.

If not, International Living was pitching Croatia in an email I got today.

BobH wrote:

The African saying is "When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers."

I hope by the time I am ready to come down there (at the end of the year) we will know how this plays out.

If not, International Living was pitching Croatia in an email I got today.

Love the African quote
I think we're on the same wavelength here.

As far as Croatia goes, fuggadaboutit. They don't even have a retirement visa and they voted themselves into the European Union, soon to be inducted. Fools.

Ha ha. I love Croatia.  It's like Italy 50 years ago and without all the tourists and incompetent government. But man is it expensive to buy from what I've seen.

I don't think the issues between the Ecuador government and US government will affect the expat community here in Ecuador.

The Ecuadorian government had strong diplomatic issues with Colombia few years ago but this didn't complicate the arrival of Colombian citizens. I think this government makes a clear distinction between US citizens and US government.

vinny66 wrote:

I don't think the issues between the Ecuador government and US government will affect the expat community here in Ecuador.

The Ecuadorian government had strong diplomatic issues with Colombia few years ago but this didn't complicate the arrival of Colombian citizens. I think this government makes a clear distinction between US citizens and US government.

One would hope that you are correct Vinny, and one has to look at the reasons there are so many ex pats from the US coming here: Some form of dissatisfaction with their life in the US.
I think you make a valid observation. < I'm hoping so at least >
Stay Well,
Neil

I think it's a thumb in the eye to the US. Good for them. If you're retired, you're not putting Ecuadorians out of work.

As a "future" expat in Ecuador who just recently began to investigate the pros and cons of such a move, I have little to add about the impact of the Snowden issue on the perception/treatment of US expats by the Ecuadorian populace.

Having said that, I doubt that President Correa and the Ecuadorian government would want to discourage US citizens from coming to Ecuador just because of a diplomatic dispute with the US Government over Snowden for the following reasons ...

   *  US expats will still bring money into Ecuador (whether retirement cash flows or investments) and spend it in Ecuador, creating jobs and tax revenues.
   *  Many US expats come to Ecuador to get away from the US "brand" of capitalism and the NFL/NBA/Hollywood/WallStreet idolatry that is poisoning the US culture.  They are attracted by the beauty of Ecuador and its people as well as by the lower cost of living.  Expats who relocate for these reasons will certainly not be kicking up political dust in Ecuador simply if Snowden is granted asylum.
  *  For those (few) US expats who came to Ecuador to make big money on real estate, hospitality or, for that matter, anything other than cut flowers, tuna,  broccoli, etc., their motivations won't likely change and they'll still be little economic engines inside Ecuador generating jobs and tax revenues.
   *  An increase in the cost to the US consumer due to the tariff elimination will likely reduce but certainly not eliminate exports to the US.  Businesses face new challenges every day and the size of the tariff reductions are unlikely to be death knells for a well run business.  While it might have employment implications "at the margin", so would cutting off the flow of US expat spending and investment.  Besides, since a US expat has no influence over actions of the US government, any "punishment" of expats would serve no purpose other than "petty vengeance" which certainly seems beneath the dignity of President Correa and his Ecuadorian people.

Personally, I am favorably impressed that President Correa and his government have the courage, character and wisdom to withstand New Jersey Senator Menendez's extortion threats.

   Carlos  aka "El Gringo Bueno"
   [email protected]


PS   Please understand that I am very sympathetic to the plight of small business people wherever they are and don't wish anyone problems with making a living.  I am simply "throwing in my 2 cents worth" of opinion on what Ecuador might or might not do with respect to treatment of US expats and "future" US expats as a result of Mr. Snowden's situation.  I certainly hope I'm right as I am very excited about moving to Ecuador!

PPS  BTW, I hope to supplement my retirement income with a part time business in Ecuador that will either employ local people and/or promote their goods and services.  I hope this approach will accelerate my assimilation into Ecuadorian society and also help me build a wider network of friends in my new community.

GringoBueno wrote:

Personally, I am favorably impressed that President Correa and his government have the courage, character and wisdom to withstand New Jersey Senator Menendez's extortion threats.

One would expect expats taking up perm res in Ecuador to be more concerned about how anything changes Ecuador as opposed to how it affects the USA, even though they are still USA citizens.  Withstanding the extortion threats amounted to "You can't fire me, I quit."  All for show to impress the peeps.  Guess some were impressed.  Of course the real story is not very likely to hit the newspapers, thanks to the wisdom, courage and character of Correa.

GringoBueno wrote:

Personally, I am favorably impressed that President Correa and his government have the courage, character and wisdom to withstand New Jersey Senator Menendez's extortion threats.

An I can assure you that most of us are not impressed with you.

GringoBueno wrote:

Besides, since a US expat has no influence over actions of the US government, any "punishment" of expats would serve no purpose other than "petty vengeance" which certainly seems beneath the dignity of President Correa and his Ecuadorian people.

Absentee ballots

vinny66 wrote:

The Ecuadorian government had strong diplomatic issues with Colombia few years ago but this didn't complicate the arrival of Colombian citizens. I think this government makes a clear distinction between US citizens and US government.

Perhaps. But the question I posed was not about actions of the Ecuadorian government, but about possible changes in the attitude of the Ecuadorian people.

If you lose your job and are told that the reason you lost your job is because of the dirty gringos, how are you likely to feel about said gringos?

Ecuador has good relations with US. Correa once again reinforced that and brought up the fact that he lived there 4 years, got educated there, is sending young Ecuadorians on scholarships to study in the best US universities, etc. He even pointed that he had a very nice conversation with Biden about the Snowden case.

US is not the only trading partner in the world. Ecuador has been adding thousand new jobs by outreaching new countries to position its products. Go ask any cab driver in Quito about the new foreign faces relocating here as a result of the many new trade agreements. Also, check the number of professional Ecuadorians positioning themselves abroad in different countries to open new markets, and the number of new companies created in the last couple of years to export EC products. As the Snowden case made headlines, Patino, the EC Cancilleour was signing new trade agreements with Singapore.
I think that we are so used to the sensationalism, conflict and chaos with which news gets written to boost sales, that even when there isnt a motive, we think the world will end.
The trade wont stop, therefore there jobs will not be lost. The price preferences will no longer be in effect so prices will be increased.
Whenever in history there were major positive changes, there was resistance in the initial stages from some sectors. The man leading this country now has a long standing record of doing things right. He had decided that the ATPDEA -which was expiring at the end of this month anyways- wouldnt be renewed because the cost of the program simply exceeds the economic benefits. Even Peru (which has been the only one country growing faster then Ecuador in the region) has already withdrawn and it look like things worked out wonders for Peru.
Why the drama? feeling the pressure from the US intimidation? No worries, US is being exposed worldwide for its double standards and ilegal procedures to control other governments. I find THAT pressure way more dreadful.
Ecuador will be fine. We are living historical times. Things are changing, embrace the changes...

Loving Ecuador wrote:

US is not the only trading partner in the world.

Of course not. But which other countries are large enough and wealthy enough to replace the US as Ecuador's trading partner in the commodities involved (e.g., flowers)? The only market that comes to mind is Europe, and Europe (in addition to perhaps having its own trade barriers to Ecuadorian goods) presumably already has suppliers for the commodities involved -- certainly it would take time to negotiate trade for these commodities. In addition, the transport cost would increase the costs of the goods sold on European markets, perhaps making them uncompetitive.

Loving Ecuador wrote:

The trade wont stop, therefore there jobs will not be lost. The price preferences will no longer be in effect so prices will be increased.

What happens to sales of goods (particularly non-necessities like flowers) when prices go up? If there's a substantial increase in flower prices, guys will buy their sweeties flowers less often (candy sales will increase).

I'm willing to bet that, right at this moment, FTD and 1-800-Flowers are looking for other places to get flowers, since they know their sales will drop if tariffs are increased on Ecuador.

So yes, jobs will be lost. Lots of them.

Loving Ecuador wrote:

The man leading this country now has a long standing record of doing things right. He had decided that the ATPDEA -which was expiring at the end of this month anyways- wouldnt be renewed because the cost of the program simply exceeds the economic benefits.

Is that the story he's telling? If so, why was the Ecuadorian Embassy in the US running an ad campaign to get the program renewed? They also put up a website (KeepTradeGoing.com) for the same purpose. The website is now defunct.

Those seem like strange things to do if you want the program killed. As a matter of fact, if it was such a bad program, why didn't Ecuador withdraw long ago?

Loving Ecuador wrote:

Even Peru (which has been the only one country growing faster then Ecuador in the region) has already withdrawn and it look like things worked out wonders for Peru.

You're right that Peru is no longer in the program, but they did not 'withdraw' -- they (and Colombia) negotiated a broader and more comprehensive free-trade agreement with the US that superseded ATPDEA.

They apparently feel that access to the US market is a good idea and want to expand it.

Loving Ecuador wrote:

Why the drama? feeling the pressure from the US intimidation? No worries, US is being exposed worldwide for its double standards and ilegal procedures to control other governments. I find THAT pressure way more dreadful.

I'll let this stand on its own.

Aside from the political rhetoric and character assignation, I believe the concern raised about reaction to the non renewal of the trade agreement is valid. I am less concerned about individual local retaliation against North Americans as measures the Ecuadorian government may institute to "punish". Contrary to what Carlos believes, Correa is thin skinned and vindictive when he feels he has been wronged. His initial reaction is routinely extreme possibly intended to punish not only the offender but as a warning to others.

Regarding the economic impact on Ecuador, while it is accurate that there are other trading partners the prices received are less then they can earn in the USA. (Some would refer to this as "gringo price gouging"). Ecuador has long ago decided they do not want a free trade agreement (TLC) as Peru, Colombia and Chile have implemented. My belief is they cannot open Ecuador to US products as they do not have sufficient USD to finance increased imports.

My only concern would be America blocking my SS check. This is done for any American living in Cuba. No SS checks are sent out period to anyone living in Cuba and they are not sent to a 3rd party in an "approved" country.

At this point I guess we will not know because Correa is not allowing Snowden  in to Ecuador.

All of this may be (mostly) irrelevant now, since it appears unlikely Snowden will end up in Ecuador. But my guess is that, as far as the new trade agreement is concerned, the damage is mostly done. I think it's unlikely the US congress will look very favorably on any proposals concerning Ecuador, at least for a while; so the flower growers should probably seek out all those alternative markets we've been told about.

" To be blunt, I'm hard core right wing former Marine flyboy with AI (aviation intel) but I'm backing Snowden"

I served as an enlisted man in the US Army  "70 to "72. I was stationed for a period at Fort Geo. G Meade Md., in a Military Intelligence Unit, serving both at NSA and the Pentagon.

There is absolutely NO way I would have , nor would I now, betray the oath I took when I got my security clearance. As an officer, I find it out of character that you would support anyone that is in obvious betrayal of the oath he took, and is charged with espionage. Guess the officers corps has changed since I served. When I was in service, there was a procedure in place. It was referred to as : The Chain of Command. Most officers were aware of it when I served, all enlisted men were for sure. Guess that has gone by the way side, huh, Sir?

Nothing like ignoring treason for political purposes.  The few, the proud....

-a few messages have been moved to a private forum for analysis-

Well, I'll say this, the man was hard to like, but he sure looked good in a suit.

LeftClique wrote:

Well, I'll say this, the man was hard to like, but he sure looked good in a suit.

Stunning !!!
I might add.

How you at Hill Billy?

Bob, my guess is the trade agreement will be extended on a temporary basis in hope Correa will change his rhetoric/attitude regarding the USA.

For Ecuador, the agreement is a big deal. For the USA, the agreement is irrelevant.

A temporary extension might be the best solution, and it's probably the best Ecuador can hope for.

As you say, no one in the US (with the exception of the buyers of Ecuador's products) is going to be affected much by this deal. And even for the buyers, killing off trade would just mean a temporary disruption of their supply chains, until they found new suppliers.

now watch it...someone might think you making from of us Tennessee hill folk...Which I'm proud of being...Yee Haa LOL

You were in the Army from 70-72? Not in country?

I'm former a Gunny in the core from 68-74.

How'd you avoid So. V?

Beadwindow wrote:

Yep, you were right, original post; political overtones. To be blunt, I'm hard core right wing former Marine flyboy with AI

Hey, I think you will like this one, right up your alley: Washington DC Beltway

Whew!

Didn't expect my comments to spark such emotion or personal vitriol.  Simply wanted to throw my 2 cents in on the Snowden asylum situation and see what others think.

After this post, I think I'll simply cruise the blogs for more info as part of my due diligence on moving to Ecuador and limit my comments (as I'm a newbie anyway) so as not to add fuel to someone's existing fire.

I will say that I'm learning a great deal about a "subset" of the expat community and hopefully that will help me avoid certain types of "challenges" once I arrive.

   Carlos  "El Gringo Bueno"

PS  I am well aware of absentee ballots, it's just that I've noted over the years that absentee ballots generally get counted LONG after the results are announced.  Thus I don't believe they don't likely skew political calculus for the "shrewd" politician.

Julien,

It would appear that you're the founder/ moderator of this forum.  I do apologize if my original comment regarding the Snowden situation violates the rules of your forum ...

I'll check out the sticky about use of the forum for future reference ...

Every body that ain't a Hill Billy, wished they were.
No offense meant, and you obviously knew it was a fun jab. You know I spent some really good times in the Blue Hill Mountains in the fine town of Lime Stone TN. What a beautiful part of the country! You are lucky to be in that area.
Stay Well,
Neil