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Brexit latest

Johncar

After last night’s vote iin the U.K. parliament, it looks increasingly likely there may be a no deal.  If that happens then as I see it all of the offers about what might/ could apply are off the table. 

So the worst possible is now looking likely 

PS. I am so glad that since 2010 , long before a brexit possibility, I have had dual British / Irish Nationality   Although I would still have problems regarding the ‘free’ S1 health care, paid for by DWP (4,700€ p.a.) as that may no longer be available along with OAP annual increases

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Fred

Brexit, love it or hate it, is a mess of epic proportions.

If the UK leaves, it has little chance of a defined direction because idiotic politicians are infighting, that weakening it's chances of doing much.

If the UK stays, Europe can do whatever it likes because it has the UK over a barrel, trousers down, radish ready for insertion.

Basically, whatever happens, moronic politicians are making a rare old pig's ear of the lot.

Cynic

Despite last nights debacle; we still have 2 more days of political shenanigans before we know a little bit more about what the future holds.  Unless we crash out on the 29 March, we will have a further 2 years of trade negotiations to bore us all silly.

Personally, I can't believe that the UK will leave the EU without at least some kind of transitional reciprocal deal in place; it would be the height of madness to do so.

Johncar

Cynic.   
             Am I right in understanding that in a no deal situation it would be for the 27 countries of the EU to allow U.K. another two years, or even any tine, to come to a decision  ?   

If so, they may not permit it !

Cynic

Hi, these are the thoughts of Chairman Cynic.  :o

The decision to leave the EU is now in UK and EU law (Article 50); it will happen on the 29 March and it would take a change to either to stop the UK leaving (so neither party can say "OK you/we aren't leaving") without a formal change in both laws.  It would need cooperation from all sides to do this, which is why people are now saying no deal is more likely, simply because the mechanics could be easily disrupted and the UK just fall out of the EU (the "fall over the cliff" statement).

What is being negotiated (or not) at the moment are the terms under which the UK leaves (the transitional deal).  If there is any proposed change to the Article 50 declaration, then all of the remaining EU 27 countries would need to agree to an extension of the negotiation past 29 March; there are some things making that difficult (EU elections and EU change of Government), so an extension could not be allowed to interfere with, or go beyond those milestone events.  Topically for you, Spain has already agreed to not make Gibraltar an issue were this to happen.

If there was no deal, then there is nothing to discuss, no 2 years to negotiate a trade deal; the UK will walk away.  Some people have been talking about a statute in the WTO rules that says something along the lines of any group leaving can continue to apply the current rules for up to 10 years after the leaving date; that got roundly poo-poo'd by many organisations (including the EU and the WTO).  All that said, it's politics, which means anything can happen in the next 48 hours ............ remember Stingray on the TV when we were kids?

Hope this helps.