COVID-19

Many thanks

Ducketts

Análisis del crecimiento del COVID-19
en la República Dominicana

I N F O R M E # 1 7

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jZK-FX … esc4O/view

My wife went to the Mirellex after paying the bank to legalize my birth certificate (even though it is apostilled from my country so I do not know why they need that too) and it is closed due to corona virus. This makes me nervous in regarding to getting my temporary residency. The guard did not know when they would open back up so if it passes my 30 days I hope they are flexible.

https://youtu.be/PC59OQcA8os

Good explanation by Juan Carlos in this interview on Noticias Sin of his daily analysis which he is sending me and I am posting each afternoon.

all renewals etc are on HOLD for everyone.  Even expiring cedulas for Dominicans are being extended along with their driving licenses.

May I suggest the following:

I registered with the UK embassy in SD for repatriation.  They contact me by email and wanted to know which Visa I had or was it a Tourist card  I explained that I had been granted a 120 day extension but with the Covid-19 concerns that I would go beyond the date granted.

Only an impression but I felt they were going to contact DGM (as they do on a regular basis) regarding my dates.

It may be worth advising the embassy of your problem.  Whilst they have nothing to do with your application it may be possible for them through their internal means to contact DGM with your particular problem.  After all the Embassy is there for all sorts of matters  May be worth a shot.

Ducketts

We have an increase in today's bulletin of confirmed cases at 2349 which is an increase of 238 with deaths up to 118 an increase of 10 and an increase in those recovered to 80.

We therefore have 2151 active cases.

Total tests have increased to 7151 which is just under 800 tests in the day by my reckoning and explains the increase with rapid testing.

Increases are as follows:

DN                                         +38
SD                                          +41
Santiago                                +35
Duarte                                   +42
La Altagracia                         +4
La Romana                            +3
Puerto Plata                          +10
La Vega                                   +17
Maria TS                                 +6
Hermanas M                          +7
Monsignor  N                        +11
Espillat                                    +5
San Juan                                  +1
Sanchez Ramirez                    +8
San Cristobel                          +5
Azua                                          +1
Peravia                                     +1
Monte Cristi                             +1
Santiago Rodriguez                +2

Can I just say how sick to death I am of hearing about  conspiracy theories,   new rumors,  stupid shit,  corruption and people not getting help.

I am sooooo over all of this.  People please use your damn heads.  Check sources. Check facts.  Help where you can!

Okay rant over. I feel better.......

Lennox, Great resource thank you.

With great pleasure

Ducketts

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2020/04/09/612605/diputados-aprueban-extension-de-la-emergencia-nacional-por-17-dias

Deputies approve extension of national emergency for 17 days

The Chamber of Deputies approved the extension of the period of state of emergency by 17 days due to the incidence of the COVID-19 coronavirus.

The first national emergency declaration, resolved by the National Congress at the request of President Danilo Medina, expires on April 13.

The Senate already approved the extension as well. President Danilo Medina is expected to issue the extension decree in the next few hours.

So now expect the President to issue the decree later today to extend the state of emergency to the end of the month and the curfew is currently to 6 am on 18th April and could yet be extended.

All this is as expected!  We are not close to flattening the curve here so I expect the extension  for at least another two weeks after April 18.

Análisis del crecimiento del COVID-19
en la República Dominicana I N F O R M E # 1 8

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ByMrbu … KZedu/view

Figures 12 through 15 are worth monitoring in the coming days with the increased testing now happening to get a better understanding of where we are going especially province by province.

Don't read too much into figure 7 which uses 1000 cases as it's date zero, because we know NY had it's first case on the same day as DR - 1st March. And equally Spain had it's first cases in it's offshore islands and it's first mainland case was 13th February. And so in comparison, we are almost certainly in far better situation and ahead.

The number of confirmed cases has increased to 2620 which is a daily increase of 271.

The number of deaths is now 126 which is an increase of 8.

The number of recovered is now 98, an extra 18.

We therefore have 2396 active cases.

The number of tests has gone up to 7936 which is about an extra 800 in the past 24 hours.

The transmission rate seems to be about that which Juan Carlos predicted yesterday using 1.11 as the factor (he predicted 2607 cases 13 less than actual in link in post 456)

In detail:

DN                             +59
SD                              +56
Santiago                    +30
Duarte                        +37
Barahona                   +3
El Seibo                       +1
Espaillat                      +4
La Altagracia              +6
La Romana                 +6
La Vega                       +21
Maria Trinidad S        +2
Pedernales                 +2
Peravia                        +1
Puerto Plata                +2
Hermanas Mirabel     +5
San Cristobel               +2
SPM                              +6
Sanchez Ramirez        +6
Valverde                       +5
Monsignor Noeul        +16
Monte Plata                  +1

Cibao is now the region with most community transmission and from some of the news reports a complete lack of self distancing in places like Bonao is going to cause much more spread. Bonao and La Vega probably need the SFM military lock down now, as confirmed cases rise sharply.

I agree with your comments.  Lack of social distancing will keep this going.  And the longer it goes the less they want to stay at home.

Watched an interview online.  Asked why he was out at night, this idiot said: I am bored!   Right!  That is the attitude we are dealing with. 

We also need to clearly understand how difficult it is to stay home.  For us "first worlders" it's difficult.  Imagine being in a house with many others, no space to be alone, no or.limite tv and internet, Limited or no money for food and being used to being on the streets almost all the time. 

While I try to understand and empathise, sorry, keep your ass at home!

I agree it is going to be difficult here if people don't listen and some places will need the SFM treatment. I am surprised Bonao and La Vega have not been isolated with the military involved and they look serious cases now.

On a worldwide perspective, it really is becoming to look grim with an inability to control the spread anywhere. Even China and South Korea are continuing to have active cases so it will be a very long time for Europe and North America to return to anything like normal and maybe not this year. People mention a more relaxed approach but in Sweden for example but they are now seeing a growth in cases.

If you ease back on lock down, the virus comes back in more waves. There will be no vaccine for a long time and the idea of immunity/antibody certificates is a long shot at best right now. There are no game changers and it needs to start sinking in. The only hope is to continue to lock down and get those cases down to zero. Forget the sound bites like 'flattening the curve', 'the models show', when you have thousands of new cases daily and many thousands of active cases everywhere. It is meaningless. Reducing transmission is key by identifying and isolating cases and in the case of DR isolating including communities until the testing is better. If our transmission rate increases too much from 1.11 then we will start to lose any control.

We in DR are experiencing a fraction of what is elsewhere but if we relax we can soon be the same.

A huge depression is coming.

At least DR can produce food to feed it's population and export too and that will be significant imo in the new world where more social care, investment in health and social responsibility will need to come to the fore

And this could be the day the USA passes the 500,000 total confirmed cases from 100 or so 40 days ago and maybe pass Italy with most deaths too. How can the Caribbean and Latin america hope to recover with such a massive problem in the USA without signs of slowing?

Cannot disagree with you.  It will  become more and more of an issue with people unemployed, no food and stuck at home. Civil unrest is a reality for us here.  We better be prepared for it!

I am less worried about civil strife here because the military are still integrated into every public entity throughout DR in one form or another and civil liberties are not high on the agenda when it comes to public order.

But dealing with financial hardship is going to be a challenge if this lasts too long. The government has set up provision for a few months at least.

All the more reason to tackle problem areas head on quickly.

But DR like most other countries is not going back to normal especially with tourism for some time and planning for the next stage by providing incentives for regenerating the domestic economy are needed.

Civil unrest has already started in western countries...Italy....and they could have more challenges than DR when reality sets in.

Thanks for the updates.

Anything in regards to flights in/out?

Consult your Embassy for information on any future evacuation flights but maybe the opportunity has passed.

As for resumption of anything like normal flights in and out of the country will depend on the covid19 situation both here and in your own country.

Personally, I doubt if we will see much on the way of air travel returning until autumn. Why would a virus free DR permit people to arrive from infected countries without requiring quarantine? Equally why would people want to travel and risk catching the virus in another country. covid19 is not a pleasant virus for many and kills a lot. The global travel impacts are being underestimated imo.

What are the covid cases in las Terrenas?

Totally correct summary but hugely depressing.

There certainly needs more control here or as you say DR will start to look like Europe.  What I don't understand is some countries in Europe are talking of relaxing the lock-down on a gradual basis.
I don't see how this can work.  The one exception is possibly opening the schools gradually  This would alleviate a great deal of pressure for key workers etc

I certainly would prefer to get back to France but accept for the time being this is not possible.  Most European flights are frozen till mid May and no doubt this continue till end of May at least.

Of course the other concern is of course the enormous economic down turn for all countries.  Economists are forecasting doom and gloom for about 5-6 years with the global markets being worse that the Great Depression of the twenties.

In conclusion the only way to beat this in DR is to respect social distancing and for the police & military to have effective controls throughout the country.

No new cases reported in Samana province since 2nd April and the province has one road in and my bet it has been blocked off to all but essential travel for some days now.

It needs to be because suspect there maybe transmission in Nagua - Maria Trinidad Sanchez has seen cases double in the last 5 days. 18 on 5th, 35 now.

I  do not understand when you say "First Worlders". Do you consider The D.R. a 1st World Country. Or are you referring to yourself, personally?

Personally would be my guess

those of us from 1st world countries living here

which is , by the way -- A Developing Nation... not 3rd world
they prefer it that way

hahaha

Correct. I am referring to those who come from so called developed nation's.  In some ways they are far behind the culture here.  But I digress.

Those of us from other countries view all of this differently from many people in this country.

I figured as much. When  we were at the Attorney's office signing papers for the property we bought there, someone referred the the D.R. as a 3rd World Country, (which I understand it was before the infusion of Expats arrived) Well, the term didn't go over very well. And it wasn't us who said it, by the way.

It will be interesting to see what happens after the lock down ends. My first hope is that they don't end up too soon. We are not  having a problem with ours which is about half over.  But it will take time. We want to see if the Expats return. And if The D.R. is fundamentally changed to a degree it might not be a good choice to relocate after all.

https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/ … HsTX858j6g

This is an interesting table showing how fellow Caribbean islands are doing with covid19

This is so worrying for the whole of the Americas and Caribbean just now:

United States

Total Confirmed Cases
502,513
Active cases
455,176
+34,285
Recovered cases
28,706
+3,363
Fatal cases
18,631
+2,133

Thanks for the great updates!

Bulletin ~23:

Total confirmed cases is now  2759 which is an increase of 139.

Total deaths is now 135 which is an increase of 9.

Total recovered is now 108 up 10.

Total tests now at 8469 up 533.

In detail:

DN                                           +27
SD                                            +26
Santiago                                  +11
Duarte                                     +19
Azua                                         +1
Espaillat                                   +2
La Altagracia                           +10
La Romana                              +2
La Vega                                    +15
Maria Trinidad S                     +6
Peravia                                     +3
Puerto Plata                             +2
Hermanas Mirabel                  +5
San Cristobel                           +3
Sanchez Rodriguez                 +2
Valverde                                   +1
Monsignor Noeul                    +1

Questions remain over whether COVID-19 recovery will guarantee immunity: Is reinfection still possible?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/questions … ro_related

It is worth posting this article because finding an antibody test is supposed to be a way to get economies moving again. But what if we all can't become immune?

Wow.  This is a big deal!

Bulletin #24:

Total cases: 2967    Increase: 208
Deaths:         173     Increase:    38
Recovered:    131    Increase:    23
Total tests:  9275     806 new

99 total patients in intensive care

DN                                          +35
SD                                           + 41
Santiago                                 +13
Duarte                                    +21
Azua                                        +1
Espaillat                                  +1
La Romana                             +5
La Vega                                    +30
Maria T S                                 +2
Monte Cristi                           +2
Peravia                                    +4
Puerto Plata                           +17
Hermanas M                          +5
San Cristobal                          +11
San Juan                                  +6
Sanchez Ramirez                   +5
Santaigo Rodriguez               +1
Monsignor Noeul                   +5
Hato Mayor                             +2
San Jose de Ocoa                    +1

Cibao, La Vega not looking good nor is the jump in PP. San Cristobel and Bani are showing worrying trends.

Only Elias Pina now with zero cases after San Jose had it's first case today.

Do you by any chance have the total cases for each area making up the 2900 cases

Thanks

Ducketts