Getting clearance from doctor

Okieboy wrote:

Barangay captain

Same Okie, the Barangay Capitan told us both to isolate for 2 weeks after we arrived in Manila and made an escape on the 14th so we weren't stuck there for a month, and yes monitoring but no requests for clearance from a doctor. I suppose we could have shown symptoms and called for help if infected over the 2 weeks isolation.

Cheers, Steve.

Okieboy wrote:

The numbers are not adding up in the USA they have 100,000 cases most in NYC about 1400 dead but in the 2018-2019 flu season 35 million cases 34,200 dead what happened to the common flu did it go away I see no numbers on those who died from common flu

Perhaps the calm before the storm? But what of:

As of 2018 one-quarter of the world's population is thought to be infected with TB.[6] New infections occur in about 1% of the population each year.[12] In 2018, there were more than 10 million cases of active TB which resulted in 1.5 million deaths.[7] This makes it the number one cause of death from an infectious disease.[13] More than 95% of deaths occurred in developing countries, and more than 50% in India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines.[13] The number of new cases each year has decreased since 2000.[1] About 80% of people in many Asian and African countries test positive while 5–10% of people in the United States population test positive by the tuberculin test.[14] Tuberculosis has been present in humans since ancient times.[15]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis

In the mean time we should all listen to government health directives to slow/perhaps reverse our current dilemma until an acceptable cure arrises.

Stay safe all.

Cheers, Steve.

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.

The people sounding alarms about CV19 have access to and understanding of those numbers that goes well beyond most of us.

One number is the R0, which is how transmissible the disease is.

The other is  the mortality rate, which no one can be certain of right now, but the top health officials understand it better than we do.

One set of number than can give you a simplistic idea of what is happening is the number of deaths in the US over the last few days

113, 141, 225, 247, 268, 400

in just five days you have greater than a tripling of the # of deaths per day

if it was to hold steady at 400 a day for a year that makes 146,000 in a year

In a given year about 30,000 die of flu in the US.

see the problem?

Proving the old Disraeli idea that there are liars, damn liars, and statistics.

manwonder wrote:

Coronavirus: ‘Nature is sending us a message’, says UN environment chief

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua … ment-chief

Blame global warning for everything.  How about bubonic plague?  What about Spanish flu?   I remember certain evangelicals claiming that 9/11 was God's message that the USA was too liberal allowing same sex marriage, thinking homosexuals should have civil rights etc etc etc.  Evidently most of those people worked in NYC.  Guess the USA did not get the message.  Probably can blame the next disaster on legalized marijuana.  After all wine is mentioned often in the Bible, can change water into wine, can change wine into the blood of Christ.  No evidence of any weed.  Rant over.

mugtech wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.

The people sounding alarms about CV19 have access to and understanding of those numbers that goes well beyond most of us.

One number is the R0, which is how transmissible the disease is.

The other is  the mortality rate, which no one can be certain of right now, but the top health officials understand it better than we do.

One set of number than can give you a simplistic idea of what is happening is the number of deaths in the US over the last few days

113, 141, 225, 247, 268, 400

in just five days you have greater than a tripling of the # of deaths per day

if it was to hold steady at 400 a day for a year that makes 146,000 in a year

In a given year about 30,000 die of flu in the US.

see the problem?

Proving the old Disraeli idea that there are liars, damn liars, and statistics.

On the contrary. It proves not a thing. There is no proof of anything as of yet. Just a lot of dead people and an increasing number of nations in crisis.

We have one extreme who say this is all a hoax.

We have another extreme who say it is the end of the world.

Anyone can make a quip, but can anyone say what is happening or what will happen?

What do the numbers mean?

Disraeli also said that the world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those who are not behind the scenes. I agree.

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.
What do the numbers mean?

Destiny you bring up an interesting question.

The methods for determining the infection rate is totally inaccurate.

I think the total amount of deaths should be multiplied by "x" factor to determining the amount of the actual infections rate.

Italy reports 124 deaths per million                      (density 201 per sq km)

While China reports less than 3 per million         (density 145 per sq km)

Who is lying here?

China is sending medical staff and medical supplies overseas to help other countries. Hahahahaha . . . . Good or dumb PR?    Trying to deflect world opinion.

W9XR wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.
What do the numbers mean?

Destiny you bring up an interesting question.

The methods for determining the infection rate is totally inaccurate.

I think the total amount of deaths should be multiplied by "x" factor to determining the amount of the actual infections rate.

Italy reports 124 deaths per million                      (density 201 per sq km)

While China reports less than 3 per million         (density 145 per sq km)

Who is lying here?

China is sending medical staff and medical supplies overseas to help other countries. Hahahahaha . . . . Good or dumb PR?    Trying to deflect world opinion.

They are all lying.

And that should be more concerning than any virus.

I don't want to scare the kids, but

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA_CndlBu0g

There is a lot more going on here than meets they eye.

manwonder wrote:

Lipson used a common example to explain how exponential growth tricks your mind...
Pick which option you think will make you the most money in a month:
$10,000 on every day of the month.
A penny that doubles in value every day.
The correct answer is the penny.
The first option will leave you with about $300,000 in a month. The magic penny will be worth several million dollars.

At first, the process is "deceptively slow," But as the numbers get bigger, they grow so rapidly it's hard for our minds to keep up so is the exponential spread of the virus!

people see the small numbers and thing no biggie

not yet

In other news I am looking at reports of restlessness in the states.

It will not be long before the crazies begin to pop.

As or Italy, guess they will be more careful who they hug in the future.

W9XR wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.
What do the numbers mean?

Destiny you bring up an interesting question.

The methods for determining the infection rate is totally inaccurate.

I think the total amount of deaths should be multiplied by "x" factor to determining the amount of the actual infections rate.

Italy reports 124 deaths per million                      (density 201 per sq km)

While China reports less than 3 per million         (density 145 per sq km)

Who is lying here?

China is sending medical staff and medical supplies overseas to help other countries. Hahahahaha . . . . Good or dumb PR?    Trying to deflect world opinion.

See how the virus has affected me, I'm replying to my own post.

So many inconsistencies, On the news you see lines a mile long of cars doing drive-in testing. At first they go home and wait for the results, after the test and before they results, they contract the virus.

Now the results can be determined in minutes, do they park and take a number?

The incubation time can be 14 days, so do they get retested every 14 days? Many will, many over and over.

Now lets use the Philippines as an example, most don't have a car, testing of millions & millions would not be possible, I guess there would have to be drive-in stations. Claim martial law & use every Jollibees, hahahahahah, let me see, I'll take one bucket of chicken and a test kit.

Ever been to St. Lukes Hospital? If you were to stand 6 feet apart, there would be room for only one person in an elevator, if the operator would step out.

So how do they determine how many people have the virus here in the Philippines? They can't so they make it up.

manwonder wrote:

I'm not sure if the 'sheep' can handle the truth!

A young man pointed out to a tree and told his friend he lost his virginity under that tree while her father watched. His friend asked: What did her father say? He replied Baa Baa

Philippine Destiny wrote:

When we look back on this in late April people need to remember that the only reason it was not a lot worse is because of the extreme measure taken. It is expected to peak in the US at that time with daily deaths perhaps over 1000.

That is my normie take on what is happening.

Luis Ostrosky, a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said humans have a “herd immunity” to flu. “When there are enough people in the community who are immune, it protects people who are not immune,” he said. That is the case with flu, but not with COVID-19. Ostrosky said this is especially critical when there are no vaccines or therapeutic treatments for a virus.

manwonder wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

When we look back on this in late April people need to remember that the only reason it was not a lot worse is because of the extreme measure taken. It is expected to peak in the US at that time with daily deaths perhaps over 1000.

That is my normie take on what is happening.

Luis Ostrosky, a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said humans have a “herd immunity” to flu. “When there are enough people in the community who are immune, it protects people who are not immune,” he said. That is the case with flu, but not with COVID-19. Ostrosky said this is especially critical when there are no vaccines or therapeutic treatments for a virus.

Yes. A strain of flu cannot spread among a population that has immunity to that strain. It never gets from a to  c if b is immune.

There is a learning curve here and also normalcy bias.

Philippine Destiny wrote:

Common flu has a foothold already and its spread is well understood.

Coronavirus is just getting started.

Every time I look at the numbers and the possibilities it is scary.

There are a lot of factors that could make it better or worse. On the good side, it may already be a lot more wide spread than we know which might mean that it is a lot less deadly than it appears to be.

I do not want to think about the worst. At a point if it gets bad enough things compound and mortality starts to increase due to things that are not Coronavirus as first responders begin to be taken out and vital services and production assets start to fail.

I hope things tend toward the better side.

I too am hoping for a better outcome.   

However, it is quite evident that should this virus get exponentially larger...to where the infection rate is endemic here in the Phils...then we must realize that advanced critical care will no longer be accessible...even to wishful Westerners who could afford the best facilities.  If you are part of the unlucky 20% who need medical care you might receive the basics and oxygen support...but ICU with ventilator will most likely be unavailable.   

Let us fervently hope (not just for our sake) that the quarantine measures work and that it buys everyone time for a pharmacological treatment to emerge that can mitigate the serious complications.

MinimalistJourneyman wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

Common flu has a foothold already and its spread is well understood.

Coronavirus is just getting started.

Every time I look at the numbers and the possibilities it is scary.

There are a lot of factors that could make it better or worse. On the good side, it may already be a lot more wide spread than we know which might mean that it is a lot less deadly than it appears to be.

I do not want to think about the worst. At a point if it gets bad enough things compound and mortality starts to increase due to things that are not Coronavirus as first responders begin to be taken out and vital services and production assets start to fail.

I hope things tend toward the better side.

I too am hoping for a better outcome.   

However, it is quite evident that should this virus goi exponentially larger...to where the infection rate is endemic here in the Phils...then we must realize that advanced critical care will no longer be accessible...even to wishful Westerners who could afford the best facilities.  If you are part of the unlucky 20% who need medical care you might receive the basics and oxygen support...but ICU with ventilator will most likely be unavailable.   

Let us fervently hope (not just for our sake) that the quarantine measures work and that it buys everyone time for a pharmacological treatment to emerge that can mitigate the serious complications.

I had dengue twice last year. Last place I want to go is the hospital. It is a miserable experience.

It will not take much to push the system to the breaking point.

But this is not a one off. Most likely we are in for waves.

robal wrote:

Waves that we create ourselves. As it slows down, we let our guards down and go to work to pay the late bills. As infection incidence rise we quarantine again having more late bills. As it slows down, we go to work to pay again the late bills, only more this time... And so forth. Yes in waves! If it were dictatorial or communist type like China, it would be dealt with decisively. Relentless lockdown/quarantine.

Yup...some governments are also deploying apps and other technological tools to surveil people’s movement, and their contacts with others, in order to be able to reconstruct, and block, transmission chains.

Instead of creating immunity the virus can reportedly reinfect an individual and hasten fatal heart attack.

According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”

They come down with dengue hemorrhagic fever and suffer massive internal bleeding and liver damage. Oddly, the virus causing dengue fever comes in four strains, and immunity to one seems to make infection by a second strain more dangerous. The going theory for this--that antibodies generated by a first bout with dengue bind to a second strain, which helps it multiply in the immune cells--doesn't account for the internal bleeding and tissue damage, says Juthathip Mongkolsapaya of Mahidol University in Bangkok, Thailand.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2003/06 … ikes-twice

I wonder how significant this relationship between the two diseases will turn out to be.