Life salvation for next 10 years

Wth

For next ten yrs, u Should worry we might have nuclear war and jobless, recession.

I think a more important question about VN's 10 year outlook is....

-With the new trade agreements with the U.S., and a commitment to protect the S.E.A.N. coast with the new Coast Guard ships they purchased. It seems VN may not be a communist country in 10 years. Lets face it, past American enemies are now bestfriends (England, Spain, Germany, Japan). What do you think?

The 10 year outlook here could be a worry.
At the APEC summit the VN leader gave a speech highlighting that Vietnam doesn't want to be left behind when the 4th Industrial revolution gets into full swing.   The VN leader also said the Multi Nationals here haven't passed on the key technology & intellectual property.......why would they.? 🤓

Vietnam really only provides Cheap Unskilled labour.  That's the only reason the Multi Nationals are here.    Very soon,,robotics & automation will take that BACK closer to the overseas markets.  It's already happening.     

You'll see a decline in FDI as a result of this.
There will be massive job losses at the big industrial parks.

Also OIL....it's 32% of GDP.   That's on the slide as well, electric cars are already here, and petrol guzzling , polluting engines won't be around much longer.

Most SOEs (state owned enterprises) are run by  corrupt clowns and are mostly insolvent.   

Then you've got DEBT....both public & private.   

They owe banks around the world boatloads of money.  There's Good Debt &. Bad debt.   Vietnam  has a lot of bad debt.  That is....they borrowed money has been wasted on poorly built infrastructure, and shoddy property development.   This stuff is crumbling already . 

Consumer finance is one of the fastest growing industries here...29% growth this year alone.   Mainly aimed at the “wanna be seen” brigade.   Fashion outlets, electronics & scooters are being financed on the spot @ rates up to 45%PA.    Wait till the chickens come home to roost with that scenario.🤓

Then you've got the Property bubble ..which the already  “shakey” banks have financed.,,, when that bubble pops it will be a mess, and take the banks down the crapper with it.   

Once the above happens....& I'd say it will ,,what will the Dong be worth.   

They are pinning their future revenue & hopes on Tourism.....people like Yogi.😆😆

Yeah...the next 10 years is going to be interesting.

There is a saying
"If Socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be Socialists"

Collwing wrote:

Example someone male who will be at 25 years old at this stage what he needs?

Even more western millennial men coming, looking for normal women like they have here, women who don't hate and blame men and are not on some gender spectrum.

Spmcintyre58 wrote:

It seems VN may not be a communist country in 10 years

Nope, still communist, authoritarian and no voting*. Member of Chinese trading block with Philippines, Laos, Burma, probably Cambodia, Sri Lanka. Chinese electric cars and trucks. Nationwide gridlock. Chinese cruise ships stopping in Ha Long, Nha Trang (Cam Ranh), Vung Tao. Chinese oil platforms. Chinese-paid-for high speed rail project planned from Nanning to VT. Mekong delta drying up because of up-river dams. Less farming, more factories, more malls, more tourism, beach town buildups. Da Lat highlands luxury expansion and new rail to Nha Trang?

And still 40,000 VND to  $1!

* Have any countries that were economically successful at socialism changed? Can't think of any.

''* Have any countries that were economically successful at socialism changed? Can't think of any.''

I think probably Singapore one of the best country satisfied with economically even change socialism.  Am I correct?

Collwing wrote:

''* Have any countries that were economically successful at socialism changed? Can't think of any.''

I think probably Singapore one of the best country satisfied with economically even change socialism.  Am I correct?

It has some things that can be related to Socialism, but not in it's political structure.

Yeah, Yugoslavia and Somalia have advanced in leaps and bounds since they freed themselves of the shackles of socialism and embraced free-market capitalism, lol.

gobot wrote:

Collwing wrote:

Example someone male who will be at 25 years old at this stage what he needs?

Even more western millennial men coming, looking for normal women like they have here, women who don't hate and blame men and are not on some gender spectrum.

Spmcintyre58 wrote:

It seems VN may not be a communist country in 10 years

Nope, still communist, authoritarian and no voting*. Member of Chinese trading block with Philippines, Laos, Burma, probably Cambodia, Sri Lanka. Chinese electric cars and trucks. Nationwide gridlock. Chinese cruise ships stopping in Ha Long, Nha Trang (Cam Ranh), Vung Tao. Chinese oil platforms. Chinese-paid-for high speed rail project planned from Nanning to VT. Mekong delta drying up because of up-river dams. Less farming, more factories, more malls, more tourism, beach town buildups. Da Lat highlands luxury expansion and new rail to Nha Trang?

And still 40,000 VND to  $1!

* Have any countries that were economically successful at socialism changed? Can't think of any.

gobot wrote:

Collwing wrote:

Example someone male who will be at 25 years old at this stage what he needs?

Even more western millennial men coming, looking for normal women like they have here, women who don't hate and blame men and are not on some gender spectrum.

Spmcintyre58 wrote:

It seems VN may not be a communist country in 10 years

Nope, still communist, authoritarian and no voting*. Member of Chinese trading block with Philippines, Laos, Burma, probably Cambodia, Sri Lanka. Chinese electric cars and trucks. Nationwide gridlock. Chinese cruise ships stopping in Ha Long, Nha Trang (Cam Ranh), Vung Tao. Chinese oil platforms. Chinese-paid-for high speed rail project planned from Nanning to VT. Mekong delta drying up because of up-river dams. Less farming, more factories, more malls, more tourism, beach town buildups. Da Lat highlands luxury expansion and new rail to Nha Trang?

And still 40,000 VND to  $1!

* Have any countries that were economically successful at socialism changed? Can't think of any.

... I am banking on your opinion of the VN womans character. I fell in love with the country and their people, specifically one woman. I also agree with your opinion on a "gender spectrum".   Unforetunatly, american women have "lost their way/role in life" and are very unhappy as a whole.

I do not agree however, about the male millennials agenda.......
1) A VN woman is looking for strong, motivated and independent man......not a millennial.
2)When a Hitchhiker (millennial) visits VN, they only hang out with other hitchhikers of their own race. Millennials do not like to come out of their bubble. 

Geez...I hope not.
I feel, China's gravy train is soon coming to an end........ its a bad move to continue to follow.

Yep Gobot...that's my point about a change from socialism.
The world is changing everyday and I hope the VN government will see a change is mandatory if they want to jump onto the next industrial revolution. My plan is to retire to VN in the next 10 years.

The world will see a re-alignment of allies and partners, very soon.

Please choose wisely Hanoi.....

But will they change??

Getting up to speed with the next industrial revolution won't be easy. They were offered the opportunity to “ come on board” but it will be at a price & rule set that is totally out of their mindset. 

A recent survey found that less than only 10% of VN business people knew what Industry 4 was.....and weren't interested anyway in changing their game.

The biggest problem is , to get that technology they have to PAY for it upfront, set up their OWN operations, and then meet QUALITY control benchmarks and TIME deadlines for the supply contracts to be kept in place.    Miss any of those benchmarks, and the contracts are lost and they don't get paid.    That is NOT how the Vietnamese like to do business.

They like the money first, & then figure out a way to supply the cheapest barely acceptable product.   

And..they know that there are too many corrupt , devious little buggers in that supply chain that will screw things up by doing something on the “cheap” to threaten those contracts.   

The mindset here has always been around “rorting” the system.  Sooner or later that will come back to bite you.....and it looks like that's about to happen as the world moves onto the next level. 

Look at Japan....they have a different work ethic & attitude.  Attitude is everything.

The regime here has always been about controlling the masses. The old “keep em poor, keep em dumb” while the oligarchs rob the public purse for themselves has been the way for too long.

And now....as the next industrial revolution kicks in,,the oligarchs would love to be a part of it wouldn't they.   BUT when they look BACK over their shoulder  at the team they've got to carry them ,,,  it's 95 million poorly educated and financially crippled people.    The only hope is for the coming generations to see the light & change for the better. 

They say you reap what you sow.   Looks like that's likely to be the case here.

They'll be pallbearers at their own funeral.

Not sure how many people have read the book "Rising Dragon", if you can find it, it's worth reading. Unfortunately the government wasn't pleased with the book, and the author was asked to leave and never return.

I think the most important thing is how look Vietnam 10 years after! It depends on how young people are thinking and acting!
I hope the traffic and environmental conditions will be improved.

iristranv wrote:

I think the most important thing is how look Vietnam 10 years after! It depends on how young people are thinking and acting!
I hope the traffic and environmental conditions will be improved.

Two very important issues that are not getting a lot of attention from Ha Noi. I see many environmental groups are starting to do things, but this is mainly due to outside influences. Many younger people are getting on board with this, which is great.

As far as the traffic goes(roll eyes), when you have lazy police, no safety driving programs and ignorant drivers, you are going to battle correcting this. If Vietnamese actually changed their mindset on the roads, instead of me-me-me, things may change.I wont hold my breath waiting.

iristranv wrote:

I hope the traffic and environmental conditions will be improved.

Decades of unrestrained subdivision into smaller and smaller units means that there are simply too many people per Km2.  I don't know about Hanoi but this is certainly true of TP HCM.  The traffic, and pollution, is simply a result of too many people per unit area.  The only way to reverse this would be extensive expropriation of property to widen all the small hẻm (alleys) and đường (back streets) while simultaneously reducing the population.  Even in a one-party state and even if compensation is fair, which it might not be, this would probably be politically unacceptable.

Yogi007 wrote:

But will they change??

Will have to wait for the current generation of leaders to lose power (die) and maybe the next generation who grew up with Dad's easy money.

Yogi007 wrote:

Look at Japan....they have a different work ethic & attitude.  Attitude is everything.

And this is where I have faith in Vietnamese people. There are examples of cultures who are ambitious, and cultures who can barely get out of bed in the morning. The wave of Vietnamese immigrants who came to the US in the 70s were probably the most successful of all*. Meaning given the opportunity, they will educate and work two jobs, for themselves and their family. Another example is, why do english teachers get paid so much in Viet Nam? Because of the value parents put on education and success of their families (right? I am guessing supply and demand in play here  ).
Compare to Thailand: lousy schools, poor student scores and nobody cares.

Vietnam 2015 student tests

*Sure it also helped that the VN airlift included a lot of educated and professional class, compared to say Central American uneducated migrant workers.

Added to that, is the fact that Vietnamese have one of the lowest rates of walking in the world. This then creates congestion on the streets and hems. It isn't helped by the fact that many streets are impossible to walk on. This all comes back to bad governance.

colinoscapee wrote:

Not sure how many people have read the book "Rising Dragon", if you can find it, it's worth reading. Unfortunately the government wasn't pleased with the book, and the author was asked to leave and never return.

You can find it here:  amazon.com/Vietnam-Rising-Dragon-Bill-Hayton-ebook/dp/B004UDV0XY/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1512531149&sr=8-1&keywords=rising+dragon  The nice thing about electronic books is that the government is not blocking them, at least for now.  If Amazon has to establish servers in Vietnam, as discussed elsewhere, this may no longer be true.

Let's hope that the future is bright for VN. But it needs a big change in mindset. Not a day goes by that you dont see another official caught for illegal activities. Seeing  that nepotism and cronism are rife here, it will be an uphill battle.

THIGV wrote:

colinoscapee wrote:

Not sure how many people have read the book "Rising Dragon", if you can find it, it's worth reading. Unfortunately the government wasn't pleased with the book, and the author was asked to leave and never return.

You can find it here:  amazon.com/Vietnam-Rising-Dragon-Bill-Hayton-ebook/dp/B004UDV0XY/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1512531149&sr=8-1&keywords=rising+dragon  The nice thing about electronic books is that the government is not blocking them, at least for now.  If Amazon has to establish servers in Vietnam, as discussed elsewhere, this may no longer be true.

Yes thats about the only place you will find it.
Have you read it?

colinoscapee wrote:

Have you read it?

Just downloaded it.  Give me a little time.   

Dear THIGV

In fact, there are many improvements in construction in Vietnam. I noticed quite a lot of housing and urban areas projects are growing fast like mushroom in the suburbs. The nearby provinces are also growing rapidly. None wants to live in a environment cramped. As a Vietnamese who are living in abroad, I also wish the future is bright for Vietnam in no time  and rather than waiting for the change, I must change before 

The problem with most construction here is that it's of a very low quality. Let's not talk about maintenance, it doesn't exist.

Regarding my comment on “work ethic & attitude “.

I didn't mean to paint everyone with the same brush. There are very talented & hard working people here.

What I meant by that was the culture of Nepotism & Cronyism that is endemic in people getting jobs in important roles.     They don't always give these positions based on merit.     

Good , talented people are overlooked & not even considered .  Unless the applicant is “connected” or has the money to buy the job , they have no hope.    It's a disgrace.

How can you have an effective & efficient workforce when good jobs are given to greedy , corrupt numbskulls who are only in that position to “ rort” the system for what they can. 

I know a guy here that started a light manufacturing business.  They would only let him proceed if he hired certain people.  His bookkeeper was a cops wife.  He ended up having criminals playing with the company finances......the business eventually failed due to cash flow problems.🤓

A good example of this is the SOEs....take a look at the lineup of CEOs in court at the moment facing massive embezzlement charges. 

The state controlled media is saying the court action & investigation is a sign that Vietnam  is serious about cleaning up corruption. 😆😆

What a load of crap.   They are only trying to find out where the money went & who missed out on their “cut” of the action.

I wonder if it will ever change.

Yogi007 wrote:

Regarding my comment on “work ethic & attitude “.

I didn't mean to paint everyone with the same brush. There are very talented & hard working people here.

What I meant by that was the culture of Nepotism & Cronyism that is endemic in people getting jobs in important roles.     They don't always give these positions based on merit.     

Good , talented people are overlooked & not even considered .  Unless the applicant is “connected” or has the money to buy the job , they have no hope.    It's a disgrace.

How can you have an effective & efficient workforce when good jobs are given to greedy , corrupt numbskulls who are only in that position to “ rort” the system for what they can. 

I know a guy here that started a light manufacturing business.  They would only let him proceed if he hired certain people.  His bookkeeper was a cops wife.  He ended up having criminals playing with the company finances......the business eventually failed due to cash flow problems.🤓

A good example of this is the SOEs....take a look at the lineup of CEOs in court at the moment facing massive embezzlement charges. 

The state controlled media is saying the court action & investigation is a sign that Vietnam  is serious about cleaning up corruption. 😆😆

What a load of crap.   They are only trying to find out where the money went & who missed out on their “cut” of the action.

I wonder if it will ever change.

One of the biggest problems is that officials know that locals will hand over the cash willingly.

Reports say that corruption is actually getting worse.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that a copper driving a new BMW is no economics giant.

colinoscapee wrote:

One of the biggest problems is that officials know that locals will hand over the cash willingly.

You're right! They don't have motive for corruption if people around them don't create opportunities. The psychology of they is money able to do everything and it has ingrained in the minds of the people of Vietnam. It's hard to change....

iristranv wrote:

colinoscapee wrote:

One of the biggest problems is that officials know that locals will hand over the cash willingly.

You're right! They don't have motive for corruption if people around them don't create opportunities. The psychology of they is money able to do everything and it has ingrained in the minds of the people of Vietnam. It's hard to change....

It won't change from within. This is where the we really miss the power of a free press. Same as in China. Some foreign and citizen journalists risk a lot to expose problems, and it works. For example police shamed in youtube videos, and foreign companies caught bribing, embarrasses leaders into action.

Is there  Politicals directly affect the Socialism? If yes then which countries there is fewer politicals corruption?

THIGV wrote:

colinoscapee wrote:

Have you read it?

Just downloaded it.  Give me a little time.   

I finished the book, Vietnam, Rising Dragon, recommended by Colinoscapeee.  What I found most revelatory was the author's rational explanation for the seemingly irrational way that laws and regulations seem to be different in different parts of the country.  I will let you read the book to find out why.  Some of the dollar amounts in the book are no longer valid but the basic premises are seemingly correct.  If you have access to Amazon, I highly recommend it.

The transition from Communism to Capitalism is fraught with dangers.  The greatest danger is that the country will become an Oligarchy as Russia clearly has.  Hopefully Vietnam can avoid this but sadly things seem to be moving in that direction.  The key to not following that route may be the establishment of a truly free press which Vietnam does not yet have.

If Vietnam's Party wants to move the country from Stalinism, which it has already left behind, to something like a progressive Socialism on the Scandinavian model, there is a major obstacle.  That is that the Scandinavian model requires a fairly high level of taxation to cover the cost of benefits.  We know that is a problem in Vietnam where a substantial portion of income goes untaxed.

The paperback book is also available from Wordery.com for $22.14AUD.

Brilliant commentary regarding Vietnam getting close to USA, etc etc

newarrior wrote:

Brilliant commentary regarding Vietnam getting close to USA, etc etc

I just realize that too...

Yep, "Vietnam Rising Dragon" is a good book, though when I lent it to a former Vietnamese colleague of mine whose grand-uncle was one of the featured dissidents, he said a lot of things were incorrect. Maybe they didn't quite match his family's stories.

As for: "If Vietnam's Party wants to move the country from Stalinism, which it has already left behind, to something like a progressive Socialism on the Scandinavian model, there is a major obstacle.  That is that the Scandinavian model requires a fairly high level of taxation to cover the cost of benefits.  We know that is a problem in Vietnam where a substantial portion of income goes untaxed."

Don't make me laugh. Scandinavian model? Where is there an even remote level of free speech and representative democracy? Or fair taxation and, most important, an end to systemic corruption? I rent my house in a street where most houses go for US$3-4 million if you want to buy them. Almost all owned by retired government officials with 7-series BMWs, Lexuses and S-class Mercs out the front. Huh? What was their salary and current pension scheme?

And let's not look at the Porsche Panameras and Landrover Discoveries that seem to hog the roads these days.

Yes, the Scandinavian model requires a high level of taxation, but on a high level of income on a people who feel they have a direct input in how it's spent.

Vietnam has some way to go...

Of late there seems to be quite a few officials being caught for crimes that everybody has known about for years. If the government is serious about corruption, I doubt it is, then they really need to start putting things in place to reduce it. As Robvan mentioned  the amount of very rich officials is staggering and not very difficult to figure out as to how they obtained their wealth.But these people will continue to enjoy the money that they have siphoned off the public purse.

If only corruption was just at the top. I see it as a systemic mindset in all the 3rd world, the common expectation that people will try to get away with what they can. The lady selling bad fruit, the taxi driver, policeman, inspector. Even the ex-colleague of my wife, her friend, who asked for a huge referral fee for a job in her hospital. What the west would regard as morally wrong (stealing, cheating, unfairness), here is just 'doing business', taking advantage of your 'power'.

It is the biggest difference living in Vietnam for this westerner. No way am I going to say that this practice is immoral. It is a different world.  Is selfish corruption a natural stage in the evolution of a feudal to modern society? From self sufficiency to citizenship? Blame the Soviet model? The lack of a golden rule?

I don't know, but so hard for me to wrap my head around this mindset. Luckily my wife's family is normal, good, and humble (to my western standards of normal, good and humble) and would never cheat anyone, perhaps the silent majority are like them.

robvan wrote:

Don't make me laugh. Scandinavian model? Where is there an even remote level of free speech and representative democracy? Or fair taxation and, most important, an end to systemic corruption? I rent my house in a street where most houses go for US$3-4 million if you want to buy them. Almost all owned by retired government officials with 7-series BMWs, Lexuses and S-class Mercs out the front. Huh? What was their salary and current pension scheme?,,,,,,,,,,,,,Vietnam has some way to go...

Are you suggesting that Vietnam is inevitably headed toward the current Russian governmental and economic models?  I certainly hope not, but perhaps you are correct.

By comparing to other countries in the region is it possible to understand what it will be like in 10 years? It seems the changes in govt. occur at a slower rate than overall growth. I hope the living standard improves significantly and that all have more access to things westerners take for granted. Such things as Libraries and clean air are things I no longer take for granted.