PR: economic outlook over the next ten years

"clueless politicians, extended receivership and prolonged depression"

I am a puertorican returning to the island to retire so I may see it different than someone from the mainland. PR had always have economic problems, they may be more accentuated now, but they always been there. What you see in the news is one side, the other side is what the people that live there see and experience. Central government is broke, always been, the problem is that now they can't hide it anymore. But, go to the malls, the beach and most tourists places, they're always full of people. People continue to buy stuff, spend money in restaurants and purchases. I was last week at "Caracoles " by la Parguera, I counted over 50 boats parked and partying. So where is the bad economy? Most folks drive new or newer cars. Houses have ACs on all rooms and the houses are updated.
Yes, there is a problem, I won't deny it, but most folks will go around their business and do what they need to do to survive. As to how long will it last, in ten years there will be another crisis. Heck, in a couple of years the government will invent another issue to take the people away from this one. In 4 years, they will vote into power the other party to see if they do a better job. And, unfortunately, the cycle will repit itself.

My Opinion: The drug business and the grey economy may account for some of those boats. The malls full may be a combination of grey economy and charging the credit cards to the max, then getting a new credit card to also fill.

There are too many business closing to say that business is still florid.

More sophisticated ways to steal money from the government by connected employees and their friends. More corrupt politicians blaming everything on the previous administrations, more wasted money in unnecessary projects. Too little invested in helping businesses get ahead and create jobs. More large corporations and High flying investors milking the island and the poor. In other words, nothing changes for at least 10 more years.

Government finding new ways to milk money out of the people, cost of living going way up, Rich become Richer, poor become poorer. More strikes demanding just about everything and falling on deft ears.

And that is the positive view, LOL.

Rey, I have meet some of the boat owners and most of them are business owners doctors, lawyers and folks that work in the metro area and spend the wknds away from the area. Yes, there are some drug money owners, but that's the minimum on my opinion. Also, I may agree on the CC over purchased, but eventually it will catch up with you. But drive around the tourist areas and you will see people partying and expending money. Don't get me wrong, the island is in bad shape and it will take a while to recover, if it ever does, but people will still go around their business and survive.
We been in the island for a month, in that time, in a significant amount of businesses they have ask me to pay cash to save me the IVU. This doesn't help the economy grow, but people are feed up with the central government stealing money from them. The government will continue to squeeze ways to change the citizens and the citizens will find ways to circumvent the laws.

NomadLawyer wrote:

"clueless politicians, extended receivership and prolonged depression"

I'm afraid you got it right..

adlin20 wrote:

But, go to the malls, the beach and most tourists places, they're always full of people. People continue to buy stuff, spend money in restaurants and purchases.

You got a point there. Among my clients there are a couple of US based department store chains.  When I'm there I talk to the store manager and the stories I get about their sales is that they're doing great. I got this from at least 20 store managers all over the island.

Keep in mind that the grey economy is big here on the island. I'm convinced that many people who are in the statistics as unemployed make money somehow.

Then again, the numbers of people leaving for the mainland aren't lying. I'm not hopeful though about what the politicians will be able/willing to do to improve the economy..

There is a big underground market in the island. Some places hire employees under the books. My niece works at a "Panaderia " makes $5.25/hr, do you think her employer is reporting her salary? First if he is, he is paying under the minimum wage, not to count unemployment benefits and ssn. There are plenty of places like that around the  island. What you are going to do? Report it, and end without a job? Then there is the manual laborer, they get paid in cash, under the table. This way, they don't loose the PAN and other benefits. My brother in law been working like this for years. Collecting PAN and other benefits while working.

People have to feed the family somehow, it is not like they are pulling big money, just enough for subsistence.

I am really worried about the future.
People are going crazy! My daughter was in BK on Saturday with her BF when 2 people with masks went inside, screamed thast it's a robbery and shooted around. Luckily nobody was injured but I am really afraid to let her go somewhere from now on!

That's scary!
Yes, I hear that crime is on the rise and I'm not sure if the police is able to do enough about it..

Yea not the best place to be, you never know about a random bullet. Sorry your kid had to go thru it Marion.

Unfortunately even on the mostly quiet towns there been sone increases in crimes. The younger generation is getting bolder and more violent than before. I been reading that the government in increasing the penalties for violent crimes.

Please be safe and aware of your surroundings, specially at night and weekends.

The criminal justice system is on the ropes. Few crimes result in arrests; fewer in convictions. The police arrest multiple offenders just to see them soon released. Many of the judges believe that criminals should not be punished because they are not truly responsible- society is responsible. That's the judicial philosophy that allows so many repeat offenders to escalate their crimes until innocents end up dead. It's tragic.

And on top of all of this, the best cops are moving to the mainland for better paying positions, like my good friend who was shot point blank in the face while trying to make an arrest. Luckily the bullet ran down the length of his jaw bone and out of his head near the ear.

The criminals fear nothing and honestly, why should they?

I remember Fajardo in 90's. So quiet and peaceful. Now, murders are common place.

At least we are not like Mexico where murders and disappearances are very common, yet the tourism is still alive there. Murder in PR is mostly drug related and feuds between people. Gun / knife fights in bars after midnight are common also but that has been the case always.

Fast food places are robbery targets in PR, I heard of a couple a month, these are low level tugs doing the deed.

What worries me are the carjackings at convenience stores / gas stations, sometimes in supermarket parking and at intersections, luckily most seem to happen late at night.

In my experience you can forget the police! A bunch of lazy, unmotivated fat people, sorry!

It doesn't help much if you increase the penalties if police doesn't do their work!!

Exactly, why??? I don't have any respect for the police here, good for nothing!

***

Understand your feeling Marion and agree that they are not very effective or very caring.

ReyP wrote:

At least we are not like Mexico where murders and disappearances are very common, yet the tourism is still alive there. Murder in PR is mostly drug related and feuds between people. Gun / knife fights in bars after midnight are common also but that has been the case always.

To my surprise (I don't check these numbers too often) the murder rate in PR (20/1000,000) is higher than in Mexico (16.2/1000,000) according to this site: http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analys … e-round-up

After years of decreasing homicide numbers a 15% raise was observed in 2016.

Now, homicide is only one part of the crime stats and like you say, many of the killings are drugs related with relational problems on second place if I remember right. If you mind your own business the chance that you die from something else than a bullet is a lot higher.
It's hard to get official numbers and if they are available they are old but from what I hear robberies and burglaries are on the rise, too. In an economy where there are less opportunities, especially for young people that's a sad side-effect.

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I would agree some of the officers are not caring or unmotivated, but, what can you expect when the pay is so low and their benefits are been taken away by the politicians?  Their equipment is obsolete and in bad shape. And most people treat them with disrespect. And I say some because I know a lot of them that are good officers and go out every day to protect the people risking their own lives.
I don't know what your experience was, but making an assumption that all of them are bad is wrong on my opinion.

My nephew was a police officer in PR and he quit the force because of the corruption. Some protect or look the other way when it comes to the drug dealers. Sometimes is an issue of fear, they don't want to be executed or have their families harmed in retaliation.

There are definitely good ones but the good ones I know have told me that there are plenty of lazy incompetents who drag down their units. In addition, the good ones often do not get any support from the community. People are reluctant to be witnesses. This reluctance often kills investigations.

There are good cops, and there are lazy ones, some are just staying healthy until they retire and there are corrupt ones. This happens everywhere including US.

But some forces in the US are well monitored and they get rid of the chaff quickly so some of those forces are proud units of good hard core cops.

I know a couple of ex cops in PR, they were discusded with the justice system that basicly released criminals with little or no punishment for crimes committed.   Corruption and payoffs left them frustrated -  after a solid arrest and case, only to have the system cut the bad guy loose. 

So, they left the force, and found other work.  Too bad - we need good cops!

So, the original request asked for a 10-year projection narrowly on economics and broadly on quality of life. I can see that the "out of the frying pan into the fire" theory would apply and that most respondents feel that history repeats itself. The comparisons with Mexico are interesting. I'm looking at Yucatan and QRoo state for the safety question. OK, so PDC and Cozumel are high-priced, maybe even Merida, but on the new Mex Temp/Perm visa, one could get some protection and state medical care if and when Medicare goes out the window. I'm on forums in these areas, and I don't hear the same complaints.

seoulguy wrote:

So, the original request asked for a 10-year projection narrowly on economics and broadly on quality of life. I can see that the "out of the frying pan into the fire" theory would apply and that most respondents feel that history repeats itself. The comparisons with Mexico are interesting. I'm looking at Yucatan and QRoo state for the safety question. OK, so PDC and Cozumel are high-priced, maybe even Merida, but on the new Mex Temp/Perm visa, one could get some protection and state medical care if and when Medicare goes out the window. I'm on forums in these areas, and I don't hear the same complaints.

We just tend to paint a darker picture because we want to make sure you are prepared. Some people in forums do a good job answering questions but do not volunteer information that may be negative.

Bali is a good example, most of what you hear about bali is extremely positive, they don't discuss the bad. Here we tell you that the emperor has no clothes because the state is broke and can't afford it.

I don't know much about other places for expats, but the main selling point to me and to others is PR is part of the US. With the way the world is going, the way other countries are dealing with corruption and drug problems, I personally rather stay where I know the US laws I'm used to are still valid. The island may be broke, but I know the government cannot come and take my house away. The military cannot come and take over. Most political corruption is deal with. And I am a short flight to the mainland without the scrutiny of other country politics.
Don't get sick in Mexico or Central America, if you do, make sure you can cover the medical cost. They won't allow you to leave without paying for it.

adlin20 wrote:

I don't know much about other places for expats, but the main selling point to me and to others is PR is part of the US. With the way the world is going, the way other countries are dealing with corruption and drug problems, I personally rather stay where I know the US laws I'm used to are still valid. The island may be broke, but I know the government cannot come and take my house away. The military cannot come and take over. Most political corruption is deal with. And I am a short flight to the mainland without the scrutiny of other country politics.
Don't get sick in Mexico or Central America, if you do, make sure you can cover the medical cost. They won't allow you to leave without paying for it.

yup - exactly why we landed in PR.  We looked at Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, and others - the fact that we are still in the USA and under a relatively stable political, legal system was a deal maker for me.

Years ago, when we were looking for a place, I recall bending elbows with an old salt fisherman expat in a bar in Los Cabos, Mexico  - he had lived there for several years and we talked about buying a retirement place there in Mexico.  He looked at me and said in a very serious tone, "don't spend more than you can afford to walk away from...this is Mexico, they can take it away from you and kick you out in a NY minute!!"   

Sitka, we had the same experience when we started researching on buying a place in Mexico. We love the Yucatán peninsula and started planning on moving there to semi retire. But we got the same response from people that lived there. PR may be in bad shape, but because it's part of the US the political system is more secure than any other Caribbean destination.

Yeah you are sure right. I am just disappointed from the police over here in Mayagüez.
I don't know how the police worked before I came here...

They are really not much different than any other cops, they are just disappointed on the system, the low pay, the lousy equipment, being outgunned by the bad guys, and having lousy management more interested in covering their butt than helping the officers in the field.

Out in the field they are on their own and putting their life at risk, nobody wants to get hurt and then forgotten in a wheel chair.

At the higher levels of management it is all politics, in the field is life an death.

The justice systems screws them over and release the criminals, the commissioners chew the cops butt and the bad guys are out in the field and angry at the arresting officers.

Would you like a job like that?

And then, if you make it to retirement, you get a $900/month pension and no insurance.

Woopidoo!! 

Ohh! I forgot, then the politicians get to decide if your pension is enough so they can cut it more.

Yup! Sign me up!! 

It is hard to be a motivated cop in PR and that explains it pretty much.
Unlike London where there is a camera pretty much every few feets, PR has few cameras and in the middle of nowhere there are few if any, hard to get pictures of what happened and the people do not want to get involved so there are few witnesses. Cases just pile up and go into the cold cases files.

Sitka wrote:

adlin20 wrote:

I don't know much about other places for expats, but the main selling point to me and to others is PR is part of the US. With the way the world is going, the way other countries are dealing with corruption and drug problems, I personally rather stay where I know the US laws I'm used to are still valid. The island may be broke, but I know the government cannot come and take my house away. The military cannot come and take over. Most political corruption is deal with. And I am a short flight to the mainland without the scrutiny of other country politics.
Don't get sick in Mexico or Central America, if you do, make sure you can cover the medical cost. They won't allow you to leave without paying for it.

yup - exactly why we landed in PR.  We looked at Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, and others - the fact that we are still in the USA and under a relatively stable political, legal system was a deal maker for me.

Years ago, when we were looking for a place, I recall bending elbows with an old salt fisherman expat in a bar in Los Cabos, Mexico  - he had lived there for several years and we talked about buying a retirement place there in Mexico.  He looked at me and said in a very serious tone, "don't spend more than you can afford to walk away from...this is Mexico, they can take it away from you and kick you out in a NY minute!!"   

"...the fact that we are still in the USA and under a relative stable political, legal system..."  Sir, crank up your cable and tune into stateside news, maybe CNN there?  See if you can make this same statement.

Most crimes are being capture by stores cameras. Most places today days have some type of security system installed.