COVID-19

I think you said yesterday The DR Gov said the Delta variant was not in DR

I heard today it has arrived as it has in most other Caribbean islands.  There is no escaping it.

Be warned

Best wishes

Conflicting reports

https://dominicantoday.com/dr/local/202 … d-is-here/

Good to hear from you ducketts and hope you are safe in France where Delta is exploding.

I am sure it is here and maybe we will have confirmation soon with mass testing taking place at present. Testing has been low except a few places. I am surprised at the low case numbers and positivity we are seeing these days but maybe it is the lull before the storm? Or divine intervention?

WillieWeb wrote:

Conflicting reports

https://dominicantoday.com/dr/local/202 … d-is-here/

That is probably based upon the false Brazil report mentioned in earlier posts here. And who puts much trust in Dominican Today anyhow?

If Delta is here we would know by cases and hospital occupancy. It takes weeks to gain a foothold and maybe Gamma is in the way too. We are a month behind the USA and think where they were 4 weeks ago. Whilst it appears good here now, make the most of it with precautions becuase it could change drastically soon.

We still only have 40.72% of the total population fully vaccinated here and 52.05% with at least one shot as of todays Our World in Data figures. And so we are in a weak position for Delta as compared to Europe and USA.

And recent vaccinations are slowing down despite efforts to make vaccines more available:

Last several days shots:

First 14,327 (4.08), 13,647, 12,018, 4,882, 1,864, 12,498, 14,049 (10.08)
Second 29,610, 25,503, 21,164, 7,509, 3,291, 22,220, 26350.

***

Don't go there please.  We have gone through this more than once.

What could be wrong with pointing out naivete?

You should have looked in the mirror before posting that!

Again we stick to the scientific and we do not make posts alluding to conspiracy.    There are lots of places where you can have those conversations, this is not one of them. Anything smacking of rascism is not allowed. It's Covid! 

We use the official statistics and we all agree they are flawed. They are what we have.

Good luck using rational arguments with a conspiracy theorist!

Thanks I'm well.  Yes Covid cases are up again (28000 new cases today) not just due to the Delta but because there's a huge number of people who refuse to get vaccinated, sadly, including my wife.
Few hospital cases and GP visits back to normal.

Covid passports came into effect this week.  This protocol I guess will apply to many countries over time albeit there are many demos against this.

Hopefully DR won't see too much of this Delta variant as the country has been doing well with good vaccination progress.  Fingers crossed.

We are provisionally booked to return early next year-but we will see how matters develop.

In the meantime take care.

Yes I do think covid passports will become inevitable in due course and France is one country that has started this. There will be more as the necessity of vaccination become clearer for society to engage more safely in social gatherings. Hopefully an oral or inhaled drug can be found too.

Continued mutations and their damaging impacts will bring this about sooner than later imo.

Jwoddis wrote:

Good luck using rational arguments with a conspiracy theorist!

Just doing my job!   

Wrong, I'm the guy that keeps giving specific examples of naivete by many of you guys.

Please just stop.  You add no value with these comments in this  thread!

Not sure if I put my 2 cents worth in here but here it is.  What many don't realize is that some countries, Canada being one, has had an International Travelers Vaccination booklet for decades. I still have mine and actually always carry it with my passport - and now I have both my Covid-19 shots listed. May seem strange to some, in some areas, but is not a big deal. So let's just use these and instead of calling or starting something like a Covid Passport, countries that have such should re-emphasize usage and those that don't have should/could adopt. At one time, international travel required shots to certain parts of the world.....to me, this just falls into that line....and, at least for me, is no big deal....

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ … index.html

Canada's new policy........

I agree.  Travel is a privilege.  Entry to countries is granted by those countries and they get to set the rules.

Vaccines have a long history of being required.  Most of this is just noise!

hi
hope you all doing fine within the hurricane season
I am planning to come over in January/February to Las Terrenas  need to have some info
on the COVID is ok to travel how high is it?
thks

That is a long way off and lots of changes will happen between now and then!

Free person, in january and February we can predict it will likely be the same as the last years.....nobody will know how many have it, have had it in the past, how many are tested, how many are vaccinated. And locals will only wear masks or obey curfews if forced to. Thus, you'll probably be ok.

As was planned, there has been a lot more testing in recent days but antigen testing and not PCR and yesterdays positivity was very low indeed. It is hard to understand but with low hospital occupancy it seems to stack up. If there is pressure on hospitals the press report it.


Perhaps Dominicans who have not been vaccinated have antibodies from earlier infection? And Delta is giving DR a wide berth?
It is good news anyhow - for the time being.

Quick update.

As of Wednesday MOD had not found Delta here amongst the sequencing testing they have carried out. But Gamma seems to be more common now especially in Santiago.

The positivity has dropped nationally but there are a number of provinces with high positivities still. Maria Trinidad Sanchez  has the highest nationally.

The President has sought a further extension to the State of Emergency for another 45 days from the end of this month.

Sanitary controls are diminishing everywhere and the MOH are exhorting businesses to enforce mask use and socially distance.

Vaccination rates are continuing to drop off. 41.49% are fully vaccinated and 52.51% with at least one shot (Our World in Data).

The number of cases is slowly increasing as is the day positivity.

https://eldia.com.do/salud-publica-repo … -covid-19/

Still no Delta variant reported as being found in the Dominican Republic:

Gamma variant continues to be the most predominant in the country, says Public Health

https://noticiassin.com/pais/variante-g … is-1145851

The Ministry of Public Health reported this Wednesday that the Gamma variant continues to be the most predominant at the national level, so they warn the population not to lower their guard, continue using masks and avoid crowds.

"Last night the National Laboratory Doctor Defilló gave us the results from August 9 to 23, 382 samples were made, in 19 we found the Gamma variant and there are 63 that may be a variant of concern and other variants," said the doctor. Ronald Skewes, CEO of Epidemiology.

He said that in the National District, Hermanas Mirabal, La Altagracia, Monsignor Nouel, Puerto Plata, Santiago and Santo Domingo, are the provinces where the Gamma variants were identified.

Steady increase continuing in cases and positivity but shortage of testing also.


It is very hard to imagine we will not soon start to see a third wave as has been occuring in Asia, Israel, Europe and the USA and stays around for a long time especially becuase Delta has not yet established a foothold here and even evades Pfizer vaccines to the tune of about 55% of those vaccinated with that jab.

The rate of vaccination in DR continues to slow with the current status as Our World In Data is 42,03% fully vaccinated and 52.89% with at least one shot.

Worth watching in the coming days. SD numbers very low still but Puerto Plata, Santiago, Espaillat, La Vega and now La Altagracia are showing higher daily numbers with low testing levels.

Too many vaccines and not enough takers!

DR has received 2.75million additional doses this week with 2 million coming today from Sinovac and 0.75m from Pfizer and AZ earlier in the week.

Vice President announces the arrival of 2 million Sinovac vaccines to the DR

https://eldia.com.do/vicepresidenta-anu … ovac-a-rd/

So we have received more than 20 million doses and injected 11.07m doses of which 652k are booster doses. And now the rate of weekly new vaccinations is under 9k per day and total rate of vaccination including boosters is now under 250k per week.

The vice president should be worried that DR has already got more than enough vaccines in store than they can use in the months to come, and some may become out of date at this rate.

They should send some to Haiti!

And our infection rates going up again.

The one issue I had addressed was having my wife get a Pfizer shot as Canada (and other countries) not recognized the Chinese vaccine. Her daughter was able to arrange this very quickly. Now, if, or rather when Canada Immigration gets around to approving her Permanent Resident application, she'll be accepted. Meantime, the time is now approaching where ALL vaccines have been in use successfully proving/providing data which past requirements took several years to accumulate and received government FDA approvals. Take care all...I'll be back to monitoring these updates from Alberta as I return tomorrow to work....

The country accumulates millions of Sinovac vaccines without a clear objective

https://noticiassin.com/pais/el-pais-ac … ac-1148206

As demand for the third dose of the anti-covid vaccine grows, as well as Pfizer vaccines for adolescents due to the proximity of face-to-face classes, the country accumulates without a clear objective doses of the Sinovac serum at times when that the application of the first injection has stalled and the authorities are looking for new methods to locate and convince the unvaccinated.

The national press has finally noticed!

I think the policy of an early third booster shot of another vaccine than Sinovac for the many who had completed a full course of that vaccine was a huge mistake, without mentioning the ethical question with so many countries lacking access to any vaccine.

It potentailly has put people off being vaccinated and the third alternative shot still is not medically proven but rather the opposite from a study in Turkey which showed that a 3rd Sinovac shot was more effective than an alternative Pfizer shot.

Now data is showing that a Pfizer course is less effective against the Delta variant to the extent that it only offers about 42% proection against simptomatic infection. And studeis in both Thailand and China where Delta is dominant show Sinovac giving 63% protection against simptomatic infection. This ties in with studies in Chile where Delta is common too. And the rapid spread of Delta in Europe, Israel and USA where Pfizer is predominantly used adds real evidence of breakthrough compared to Asia's poorer countries where Sinovac is more common.

So to use the large stockpile of Sinovac vaccine I would urge the DR government to start offering a 3rd Sinovac jab at 6 months to boost the protection of those that started their course in March. Studies show that the vaccines anti bodies (no mention of T cell and other protection) wane after 6 months.

This would be a medically proven approach to protect the population against the soon expected Delta surge using large stocks in hand and with minimal side effects too.

I will have completed my 6 months after my second Sinovac shot at the end of September and realize that a Pfizer shot is not going to be much use with Delta so would ask for a third Sinovac shot which my body would already recognize and reinforce it's protecion.

Moderna seems the most effective against mild Delta but with strong side effects with more mRNA and not available here.

All the vaccines appear to remain good against hospitalization and death but do wane and a booster appears to be medically a good approach. But then there remains the ethical question of an unequal world with vaccinations.

I've been saying the country already has too many vaccines for weeks and now the media in DR has realized that too:

Vaccines in excess would cost $ 9 billion

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2 … 0-millones

The Dominican Republic will have to pay between five thousand and nine thousand million pesos for the vaccines contracted in excess to the companies Astra Zeneca, Pfizer and Sinovac, with which the country has agreed 35 million vaccines.

In October of last year, the Health Cabinet announced the contracting of 10 million vaccines with AstraZeneca-Biontech, for an amount of 40 million dollars, at 4 dollars per vaccine, while with Pfizer the initial agreement of 7 million 999 thousand vaccines was expanded to 9,999,990 with a total cost of US $ 119,999,980 with a unit cost of 12 dollars per vaccine.

This Sunday the country received 2 million more vaccines from the Chinese company Sinovac to complete the 15 million vaccines contracted with the company that has been more efficient in delivering the vaccines contracted with the country, which have a cost of 19 dollars according to a publication of the page of the Presidency of the Republic of March 19 of this year.

With an estimated population of 10,535,535 for this year, according to data from the National Statistics Office, ONE, it is estimated that the population to be vaccinated would be 8,428,428, 20% of the total population, by virtue of the fact that the process includes to the population 12 years and older, to apply two doses to that total, 16 million 856 thousand 856 rations are required and for three doses 25 million 285 thousand 284. It is estimated as virtually impossible for the country to inoculate with the three doses at 100 percent of the target population, given the levels of resistance that a significant part of the population has, so a prudent calculation would allow us to assume that the Dominican Republic could administer between 20 and 23 million doses of vaccines in the best of cases ,even including an important part of the foreign population that resides in the country or is in it occasionally.

This would represent that the country would have an excess of between 10 and 15 million contracted vaccines, without the possibility of restructuring any of the contracts being reported so far, that of Pfizer for example is a closed contract that does not allow going back and Sinovac It has already delivered all the contracted doses.

A simple exercise according to the arrival of vaccines so far makes it possible to estimate the cost of the excess vaccines that the country has purchased, if for example 4 million Astra Zeneca vaccines, with a value of 16 million dollars, 4 million from Pfizer with a value of 48 million dollars and 2 million Sinovac vaccines estimated at 38 million dollars will remain unused, assigning Sinovac a lower percentage because it has been the one that has delivered the most, this would represent 102 million dollars equivalent to 5 thousand 814 million pesos.

If the surplus will reach 12 million vaccines, assuming that they are 4 million for each supplier, the amount would reach 140 million dollars.

It has received to date over 21 million vaccines and has injected as of yesterday 11,111,548 so 10 miilion in reserve already and few takers daily.

2 members of the Infectious Disease committee in the US resigned over Biden's promotion of a booster shot

Health authorities identify in the country another variant known as "Mu" B.1.621

https://noticiassin.com/pais/autoridade … 21-1149292

The Ministry of Public Health reported that “variant B.1.621, also known as“ Mu ”, was identified in the country: It is circulating in the provinces of Santo Domingo, Barahona, Bahoruco, Azua and La Vega.

The director of the General Directorate of Epidemiology, Dr. Ronald Skwees, said that the "Mu" variant was identified in the country on May 10, circulating in Barahona with (4 cases), Bahoruco (1), Azua (1), La Vega (2) and Santo Domingo (1).

During his participation in the customary press conference on Wednesdays, Skwees stated that "Mu" has been classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as an observation variant as well as the crown variant ".

"The WHO announced that variant B.1.621, also known as 'My', has mutations that could indicate possible resistance to vaccines and has a constellation of mutations that reveal the risk of an immunoevasive property." It appeared for the first time. once in January in Colombia and has been presented in other countries in South America and Europe ”.

WHO monitoring new coronavirus variant named Mu

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ … t-named-mu

The World Health Organization has added another version of coronavirus to its list of “variants of interest” amid concerns that it may partially evade the immunity people have developed from past infection or vaccination.

The Mu variant, also known as B.1.621, was added to the WHO’s watchlist on 30 August after it was detected in 39 countries and found to possess a cluster of mutations that may make it less susceptible to the immune protection many have acquired.

According to the WHO’s weekly bulletin on the pandemic, the Mu variant “has a constellation of mutations that indicate potential properties of immune escape”. Preliminary data suggests it may evade immune defences in a similar way to the Beta variant first discovered in South Africa, the report adds, but this needs to be confirmed by further work.

The Mu variant was first identified in Colombia in January 2021. Since then, sporadic cases and some larger outbreaks have been recorded around the world. Beyond South America, cases have been reported in the UK, Europe, the US and Hong Kong. While the variant makes up less than 0.1% of Covid infections globally, it may be gaining ground in Colombia and Ecuador where it accounts for 39% and 13% of Covid cases respectively.

Scientists and public health officials are particularly eager to know whether the Mu variant is more transmissible, or causes more serious disease, than the Delta variant that is dominant in much of the world. “The epidemiology of the Mu variant in South America, particularly with the co-circulation of the Delta variant, will be monitored for changes,” the WHO bulletin states.

At least 32 cases of the Mu variant have been detected in the UK, where the pattern of infections suggests it was brought in by travellers on multiple occasions. A report by Public Health England (PHE) in July said most were found in London and in people in their 20s. Some of those testing positive for Mu had received one or two doses of Covid vaccine.

The Mu variant was added to PHE’s list of variants under investigation in July. The designation, which refers to Mu as VUI-21JUL-01, means the variant will be monitored to see how it behaves. So far it has not raised alarm as much as Alpha and Delta, which are classified as more serious variants of concern, largely because of their increased transmissibility but also concerns about evading immune defences.

A risk assessment of the Mu variant released by PHE in August highlighted laboratory work that suggests the variant is at least as resistant as the Beta variant to immunity arising from vaccination. But more evidence is needed from other laboratory studies and real-world cases of the variant. How much of a threat the variant poses is highly uncertain and depends on whether cases grow substantially in the weeks and months ahead, particularly in the presence of the fast-spreading Delta variant.

“At present, there is no evidence that VUI-21JUL-01 is outcompeting the Delta variant and it appears unlikely that it is more transmissible,” the report states, though it goes on to warn: “Immune escape may contribute to future changes in growth.”

Part of the concern about Mu comes from the particular mutations it carries. One genetic change, the P681H mutation, is found in the Alpha variant first detected in Kent and has been linked to faster transmission. Other mutations, including E484K and K417N, may help the virus evade immunity defences, which could give the variant an advantage over Delta as immunity rises into the autumn.

Delta has not been identified in DR yet but Alpha, the worrying Beta now and Gamma have. Mu is circulating in Colombia at 39% of cases alongside Delta and Gamma and in Ecuador and Forida. It will find a receptive country in DR to spread further.

2 members of the Infectious Disease committee in the US resigned over Biden's promotion of a booster shot

This is an interesting read and myself I have questioned why DR has had such a reduced infection rate through August and into September. The strict curfew measures cetainly depressed the virus big time but one would have expected a rebound and it has not happened as of yet to any large scale. So are the vaccines commonly used in Latin America and DR effective and is there a high level of immunity through earlier infection?

Covid-19 in South America: what is known about the steep drop in coronavirus cases in the region

https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-amer … a-58553895

By mid-June, while the rest of the world was experiencing low numbers of new coronavirus infections, South America was becoming the epicenter of the pandemic.

Seven of the 10 nations in the world with the most daily deaths per capita were in the region: Brazil's rate was seven times that of India, while Colombia and Argentina had a figure that was equivalent to three times that registered in the entire African continent.

With just 5% of the world's population, South America had a per capita death rate that was equal to eight times the world number.

But that is a thing of the past.

At the end of June, the number of infections began to decline consistently, making the region one of the areas in the world where the pandemic seems to be better controlled .

Thus, while for this Monday the weekly average of confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants was 52 in the United Kingdom and 43 in the United States, Brazil only reached 8, Argentina to 6 and Colombia to 3, according to figures from Our World in Data .

Countries like Uruguay, which at the beginning of June had 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, now only have 4; while Paraguay, which registered up to 40 cases, now does not even reach 1 per 100,000 inhabitants.

Evolution of covid-19 cases in South America.  Average daily number of infections per 100,000 inhabitants.  Evolution of confirmed cases of covid-19 in South America between June and September 2021..
This decrease in infections has been key for South America to be currently one of the regions of the world that is registering fewer cases of covid-19.

But how do you explain this abrupt drop in infections in South America?

Between immunity and other unknowns

"The first thing I would say to you is that I think we are not entirely clear, " replies Andrés Vecino, a researcher in health systems at the Department of International Health at the John Hopkins School of Public Health (United States).

The researcher recalls that this is not the first time that there has been a decrease in cases that seems to announce that the end of the pandemic is approaching and then there is another wave of infections that shows that it was not.

"It is important to say that we do not know exactly what this is and that the fact that cases are going down now does not mean that it will happen in the future. I want to remember what happened in India, where there was a relatively low case count for its population and then we saw a large increase in cases with the delta variant ", the expert warns BBC Mundo.

In recent months, South American countries have made progress in vaccinations.

Dr. Carla Domingues, who led Brazil's immunization program until 2019, recently issued a similar warning. "It is a phenomenon that we do not know how to explain," this epidemiologist told The New York Times .

However, specialists give some clues: among them, vaccination. South American countries have accelerated the rate of inoculations in recent times, something that according to many experts could have contributed to curbing infections.

Vecino agrees, but it does not only point to vaccines but, more broadly, to the immunity acquired by the population of the region both through injections and infections .

"I think there is more or less consensus that it is possible that the reduction in cases in South America may be related to some degree of immunity in the population," he highlights.

The expert explains that the different vaccines that have been applied in the countries of the region are an important element to consider, as is the immunity achieved by those who have already had the infection.

"Many people in some of those countries have been infected. A recent study they did in 12 cities in Colombia shows that 89% of the people in those localities have already been infected . With that one begins to think that it is possible that in some places there are such high levels of infection that we are already beginning to see a reduction in the disease, "says the expert.

Vecino warns that, since the population is not homogeneous, this data cannot be interpreted as that 9 out of 10 people that one meets on the streets of those cities already had covid-19, so it is not necessary to trust.

"Individuals are listed in groups, then there may be groups of people who still, for example, n or is already n infected or have been vaccinated and those groups of people may have outbreaks if it comes, for example, a variant highly transmissible like mu, like delta or gamma -the 3 that are already in Latin America-, so they can obviously cause an increase in cases and deaths, "he explains.

"Having said that, it is possible that the level of immunity acquired by vaccines and previous infection is one of the reasons why we are seeing less transmission today," he adds.

Applying the right measures

Ciro Ugarte, director of Health Emergencies of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), confirms for his part that there was a decrease in cases and deaths in almost all the countries of South America, with the exception of Venezuela .

Ugarte explains that PAHO is working with the ministries of Health and with experts in the region to study these trends, as well as the reasons why this decline has continued, and points to the tightening of control measures after the significant increase of cases in the region between the end of 2020 and the first months of 2021.

" The countries implemented much stricter measures regarding physical distancing, the movement of people, the mandatory use of masks, began vaccination and extended it to other groups, mainly those who were at greater risk. All this may partly explain this trend, "says Ugarte in response to a query from BBC Mundo.

The director, however, warned the region against becoming complacent.

"We have seen that when cases decrease it is because we are doing things well. That is, we are implementing public health measures that have been proven over and over again to continue to serve," he highlights.

"The worst that could happen to us and that could happen with the countries of South America is that now that they are with fewer cases, they relax the measures because that is a great opportunity for the virus to be transmitted from person to person," he warns.

PAHO urges the countries of the region to maintain precautionary measures to avoid contagion.

Thus, although the number of cases is low at the moment, Ugarte considers that the appropriate thing is not to lower our guard:

"Our recommendation to the entire population of South America who is seeing that transmission is decreasing is to take into account that we are in this phase because the appropriate measures have been taken . Let's not relax them."

Delta has been here for about 6 weeks.

Delta variant was identified in four demarcations of the country

One of the five people with the mutation passed away
Four of the five infected were not vaccinated

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … IE28798734

The Ministry of Public Health reported this Thursday that the delta variant circulates in the country, a mutation of high epidemiological interest and cataloged by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of concern.

The Duarte provinces with two cases, San Cristóbal, Santo Domingo and Altagracia with one are the demarcations where the five samples with the variant were identified.

This variant was identified in the 42 samples sequenced at the Fiocruz laboratory in Brazil, which were sent between July 21 and August 14 and notified to Public Health last night, reported the Vice Minister of Collective Health, Eladio Pérez.

The samples correspond to two foreigners and three dominate, of which only one was vaccinated.

In this sense, the authorities highlighted the importance of vaccination and motivated the population to continue with the inoculation process.

Of the two foreigners, both Peruvians and health workers, one died, authorities said.

In addition to the circulation of the delta variant, Public Health reported that the mu, gamma, Iota and lambda variants circulate in the country.


As an indication how this may play out here, Delta was identified in USA during May(exact first cases not clear and maybe slightly earlier) and took about 10 weeks to become the dominant strain by end of July. In the UK the first cases were identified in April and it began to take off in mid May. They still get about 30k new cases daily now. If Delta is about to spread here like elsewhere it should begin to take hold at the end of this month.

Vaccination Update:

According to Our World in Data, the vaccination status in relation to the whole population in DR is as follows:

Received one dose: 54.91%
Fully vaccinated:      44.28%

VacunateRd figures as of yesterday were:

Plan Nacional de Vacunación
Acumulados al 23 de Septiembre de 2021

6,024,702
Primera dosis

4,860,422
Segunda dosis

888,939
Dosis refuerzo

11,774,063
Total dosis aplicadas

4,860,422
Población completamente vacunada

But the press feed us higher percentages using the adult population only:

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … AH28945498

Public Health reports 5 deaths and 473 new cases of COVID-19

https://hoy.com.do/salud-publica-report … -covid-19/

Cases, hospitalizations, active cases and positivity are on the way back up again. 13.73% yesterday and close to 11% the day before.

Is it Delta finally kicking off here? It has taken much longer than I had expected and as of now most Dominicans behave as though covid19 is history with zero precautions.

As of yesterday DR has 44.53% fully vaccinated and 55.17% with at least one shot according to Our World in Data. So plenty of potential hosts!

Time will tell what this is. Delta doesn't surprise me.  Very limited testing for weeks and weeks. I guess it's all catching up. And now we have kids back in school.

I am on the north coast at the moment - very limited mask use, no one cares!