PR: economic outlook over the next ten years

NomadLawyer wrote:

"clueless politicians, extended receivership and prolonged depression"

I'm afraid you got it right..

adlin20 wrote:

But, go to the malls, the beach and most tourists places, they're always full of people. People continue to buy stuff, spend money in restaurants and purchases.

You got a point there. Among my clients there are a couple of US based department store chains.  When I'm there I talk to the store manager and the stories I get about their sales is that they're doing great. I got this from at least 20 store managers all over the island.

Keep in mind that the grey economy is big here on the island. I'm convinced that many people who are in the statistics as unemployed make money somehow.

Then again, the numbers of people leaving for the mainland aren't lying. I'm not hopeful though about what the politicians will be able/willing to do to improve the economy..

ReyP wrote:

At least we are not like Mexico where murders and disappearances are very common, yet the tourism is still alive there. Murder in PR is mostly drug related and feuds between people. Gun / knife fights in bars after midnight are common also but that has been the case always.

To my surprise (I don't check these numbers too often) the murder rate in PR (20/1000,000) is higher than in Mexico (16.2/1000,000) according to this site: http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analys … e-round-up

After years of decreasing homicide numbers a 15% raise was observed in 2016.

Now, homicide is only one part of the crime stats and like you say, many of the killings are drugs related with relational problems on second place if I remember right. If you mind your own business the chance that you die from something else than a bullet is a lot higher.
It's hard to get official numbers and if they are available they are old but from what I hear robberies and burglaries are on the rise, too. In an economy where there are less opportunities, especially for young people that's a sad side-effect.

seoulguy wrote:

So, the original request asked for a 10-year projection narrowly on economics and broadly on quality of life. I can see that the "out of the frying pan into the fire" theory would apply and that most respondents feel that history repeats itself. The comparisons with Mexico are interesting. I'm looking at Yucatan and QRoo state for the safety question. OK, so PDC and Cozumel are high-priced, maybe even Merida, but on the new Mex Temp/Perm visa, one could get some protection and state medical care if and when Medicare goes out the window. I'm on forums in these areas, and I don't hear the same complaints.

We just tend to paint a darker picture because we want to make sure you are prepared. Some people in forums do a good job answering questions but do not volunteer information that may be negative.

Bali is a good example, most of what you hear about bali is extremely positive, they don't discuss the bad. Here we tell you that the emperor has no clothes because the state is broke and can't afford it.

adlin20 wrote:

I don't know much about other places for expats, but the main selling point to me and to others is PR is part of the US. With the way the world is going, the way other countries are dealing with corruption and drug problems, I personally rather stay where I know the US laws I'm used to are still valid. The island may be broke, but I know the government cannot come and take my house away. The military cannot come and take over. Most political corruption is deal with. And I am a short flight to the mainland without the scrutiny of other country politics.
Don't get sick in Mexico or Central America, if you do, make sure you can cover the medical cost. They won't allow you to leave without paying for it.

yup - exactly why we landed in PR.  We looked at Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, and others - the fact that we are still in the USA and under a relatively stable political, legal system was a deal maker for me.

Years ago, when we were looking for a place, I recall bending elbows with an old salt fisherman expat in a bar in Los Cabos, Mexico  - he had lived there for several years and we talked about buying a retirement place there in Mexico.  He looked at me and said in a very serious tone, "don't spend more than you can afford to walk away from...this is Mexico, they can take it away from you and kick you out in a NY minute!!"   

Sitka wrote:

adlin20 wrote:

I don't know much about other places for expats, but the main selling point to me and to others is PR is part of the US. With the way the world is going, the way other countries are dealing with corruption and drug problems, I personally rather stay where I know the US laws I'm used to are still valid. The island may be broke, but I know the government cannot come and take my house away. The military cannot come and take over. Most political corruption is deal with. And I am a short flight to the mainland without the scrutiny of other country politics.
Don't get sick in Mexico or Central America, if you do, make sure you can cover the medical cost. They won't allow you to leave without paying for it.

yup - exactly why we landed in PR.  We looked at Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, and others - the fact that we are still in the USA and under a relatively stable political, legal system was a deal maker for me.

Years ago, when we were looking for a place, I recall bending elbows with an old salt fisherman expat in a bar in Los Cabos, Mexico  - he had lived there for several years and we talked about buying a retirement place there in Mexico.  He looked at me and said in a very serious tone, "don't spend more than you can afford to walk away from...this is Mexico, they can take it away from you and kick you out in a NY minute!!"   

"...the fact that we are still in the USA and under a relative stable political, legal system..."  Sir, crank up your cable and tune into stateside news, maybe CNN there?  See if you can make this same statement.