PR: economic outlook over the next ten years

SawMan Serial expat

577POSTS

8 years ago

My two cents:

- Comparisons between PR and other countries even a few years ago need to be re-evaluated IMO to take into account current data.

- PR is secure from invasion because it is part of the U.S. Try and mess with PR and the wrath of the U.S. military will rain down on you.

- Security from foreign enemies does not guarantee an economy will not decline, ala Detroit, Illinois, etc.

- PR is in decline and will not reverse that trend for decades. No companies, let alone high tech companies, will relocate to a Spanish speaking country with an unskilled, declining workforce. PR has no skilled skilled workers and will not attract tech positions when ample opportunities exist elsewhere. Companies want a "follow the sun" customer service, but not in PR when India, The Philippines and European countries already provide 24-7 services. Additionally, any country lacking a reliable source of workers, power and water is a non-starter.

- Without workers and businesses, PR will continue to face a declining tax base. Efforts to raise taxes on workers and businesses that remain will lead to more closures and departures to the mainland.

- Living in PR will increasingly be suitable only for survivalists - that is, folks not expecting sustainable and reliable commercial power and water.

- Property values will fall between 5% and 10% a year for at least a decade.

Other than that, my crystal ball tells me nothing more! Please do not be offended; trying like heck to be optimistic about PR but cannot see how.

WarnerW Serial expat

314POSTS

8 years ago

#42

Was gonna chime in, but SawMan beat me to it. Agree with every item in his list, though I think property values will bottom out within 5 years. That really depends on how much and how rapid the exodus is from the island.

SawMan Serial expat

577POSTS

8 years ago

#43

WarnerW wrote:
Was gonna chime in, but SawMan beat me to it. Agree with every item in his list, though I think property values will bottom out within 5 years. That really depends on how much and how rapid the exodus is from the island.

All true. The bottom could come sooner, but the decline will be faster. Frankly, that might be better than a slower decline over a much longer period of time. If the bottom in values is within five years, then I see average annual declines on the higher end of the 5% to 10% range - look for 50% decline in property values over the next 5 - 7 years.

Sitka Serial expat

953POSTS

8 years ago

#44

Everything is relative...politics is a continuing soap opera and the liberial media (CNN, MSNBC, etc) are always self whipped up and screaming with their hair on fire Me thinks it's all about Nielsen ratings.

But, in the final analysis, as a land owner in PR you have legal recourse as a citizen and access to the court system if necessary. As an alien in another country, you are at the mercy of the local system, and most likely SOL when push comes to shove.

I'll take my chances here in the USA - it is the safest bet of the options available.

SawMan Serial expat

577POSTS

8 years ago

#45

Sitka wrote:
But, in the final analysis, as a land owner in PR you have legal recourse as a citizen and access to the court system if necessary. As an alien in another country, you are at the mercy of the local system, and most likely SOL when push comes to shove.

I'll take my chances here in the USA - it is the safest bet of the options available.

I agree and can tell you first-hand that access to a fair judiciary for, say, fraud and contract claims, that we enjoy and take for granted at times does not exist in many places, especially for expats (e.g., Panama).

SawMan Serial expat

577POSTS

8 years ago

#46

Victims aren't "mean ol' millionaires" but ordinary Puerto Ricans. Excerpt:

The battle to recoup pennies on the dollar of Puerto Rican bonds has been epitomized by Wall Street's most prominent hedge-fund managers.

But siding with them are the unsuspecting Puerto Rican residents, who piled into the securities just as hungrily.

On an island with half the population in poverty, many are seeing their saving accounts wiped out, with thousands of dollars in losses.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/09/the-unkn … uptcy.html