Hurricane Planning
The San Juan radar at 7.30 is showing the rain band associated with Grace arriving at La Romana/Miches/just east of Las Galeras. It is at present the full depth of the country and about 100 miles wide which suggests prolonged rain for 6 hours everywhere if it is maintained. The radar shows no rain showing near me now but is raining so the real stuff is a few hours away and later for the capital and north coast.
This could be bad for DR with flooding, mudslides and power and water outages.
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We have had some rains here already and the real stuff is still "en Camino".
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There is a disturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands off the African coast that merits watching.
The models have consistently to date shown it heading our way only to curve north when closer to the islands and out of harms way for us. But some models, GFS and CMC, are beginning to shift to a lesser curve north and closer to island impacts as predictions for the high pressure system to the north changes.
We should have a better idea of the likely track envelope near the islands as the week progresses and a depression forms.
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1Invest 98L, the disturbance to the south west of the Cape Verde Islands which NHC gives 90% chance of developing in the next 5 days is one to watch carefully.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin … mp;fdays=5
There is significant disagreement between the weather models on the tracking right now but all foresee a strong storm developing.
The Euro foresees the storm impacting the northern Leeward Islands, north of Puerto Rico and the north east of DR, whilst the GFS curves it northwards before reaching the islands. The CMC has a track closer to the Euro but passing just north of DR.
If it is going to impact us it will be about 1st October so plenty of time to watch and be ready if it heads our way. Yes a slow mover.
Models are sophisticated computerized weather forecasters which get fed the latest atmospheric data a few times a day and they then run and predict how the weather develops. They are our best guide at this time albeit there is no fixed centre for this disturbance yet. The key to tracking will be the Azores high to the north and if there is any weakness to allow a developing storm to shift north and out of harms way.
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My reading indicates that the warmer water allows these storms to form faster- more powerful.
The stronger they are , the faster they seem to swerve north.
Good news for us
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Yes, weather models are now converging on the probsbility of this disturbance, soon to have a name, to swing north as it approaches the islands. The Euro has joined GFS in predicting such a track in its most recent run and NHC has limited the cone extent westward.
Worth watching but now as of today the probability is low for any effect on us.
There is something behind it though.
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All the predictions for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season so far predict an above average season which starts officially on June 1st.
The much awaited Colorado University prediction was issued yesterday and you can read below:
CSU researchers predicting active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season
Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2022, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are near their long-term averages, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than their long-term averages. The warmer Caribbean and eastern part of the subtropical Atlantic also favor an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
The tropical Pacific currently has weak La Niña conditions, that is, water temperatures are somewhat cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. While La Niña may weaken and transition to neutral conditions by this summer, the CSU researchers do not currently anticipate El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.
While tropical Atlantic water temperatures are currently near their long-term averages, the warmer-than-normal subtropical eastern Atlantic typically forces a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions then lead to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
19 named storms
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 19 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers expect nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The team bases its forecasts on a statistical model, as well as three models that use a combination of statistical information and model output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office and the Japan Meteorological Agency, respectively. These models use 25-40 years of historical hurricane seasons and evaluate conditions including: Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
So far, the 2022 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012 and 2021. “Our analog seasons generally exhibited near- to somewhat above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.
The team predicts that 2022 hurricane activity will be about 130% of the average season from 1991-2020. By comparison, 2021’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season. The 2021 hurricane season had eight continental U.S. named storm and two continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes, including Category 4 Hurricane Ida which battered the central Gulf Coast and then brought devastating flooding to the mid-Atlantic and northeast US.
The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 2, July 7 and Aug. 4.
This is the 39th year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued an Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast. The Tropical Meteorology Project team also includes Michael Bell, professor in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science. Bill Gray, who originated the seasonal forecasts, launched the report in 1984 and continued to author them until his death in 2016.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season – not an exact measure.
As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season,” Bell said.
Landfalling probability included in report
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
71% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%)
47% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%)
46% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%)
60% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%)
The forecast team also provides probabilities of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of each county or parish along the Gulf and US East Coast, as well as hurricane-prone coastal states, Canadian provinces and countries in Central America and the Caribbean. These probabilities for regions and countries are adjusted based on the current seasonal forecast and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season.
Extended range Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast for 2022
Released April 7, 2022
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1991–2020 Climatological Average Forecast for 2022
in parentheses)
Named Storms (14.4)* 19
Named Storm Days (69.4) 90
Hurricanes (7.2) 9
Hurricane Days (27.0) 35
Major Hurricanes (3.2) 4
Major Hurricane Days (7.4) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (123) 160
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (135%) 170
* Numbers in ( ) represent averages based on 1991–2020 data.
Be prepared.
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Lennoxnev,
Thank you for the information. What are some ways you recommend preparing for hurricane season? Right now, I am not sure I will be there in person during hurricane season. I have done some research on preparing. I bought a house on the ocean, north coast, and am going to build a wall around the perimeter. Also, I will have hurricane windows/shutters added and a generator (but a generator is a good idea in general even outside of hurricane season).
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I have seen other reports of above average storm expectations this year.
@drculture all you are doing is good. Generally the north coast has lower probability of hurricanes and tropical storms. You still want to plan for the unexpected. Depending on your situation you also want to plan for intense rain. The north coast tends to have more issues with flooding and run off and less with the intense winds. That said the last 3 years I think the north coast has dealt with some near misses!
Everyone should have extra water, extra canned food not needing cooking, extra medications, batteries etc etc. On various weather sites they post lists etc! A generator is a GREAT thing to have.
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Everybody should have a hurricane plan if you live in DR. It is the right time now to make that plan if you don't have one already thought through.
There are stages of readiness needed because tropical storms develop in various ways and their track and intensity is uncertain whilst further away and it is only in the last hours that one can be more certain of the likely impacts on ones property or person.
Few on the track of a tropical storm suffer from serious wind damage unless the storm is big and in recent years they are getting bigger. The serious winds are concentrated in the north east quadrant and that is good news for the North Coast because historically storms pass to the north travelling east to west. But don't rely on history - atmospheric conditions elsewhere decide the track the storm takes and the climate is changing. So you have to consider for the worst.
Loose objects in the grounds and on your building are at risk from gusts of wind as well as sustained wind. Stand back and look at all building fixtures, trees etc. and make your plan.
Solar panels are at risk especially the battery storage if not in a secure place away from any water ingress. And swimming pools will get very messy and any pumps and heaters will be at risk if not secure.
Whilst retractable electrically operated aluminium hurricane shutters are a good idea and not too costly either they may not feature in many hurricane plans. I had them installed in a recent project in the Turks and Caicos Islands and they look good and are only a switch away from good protection. These might be a good idea for the owner who is not here during the season. You maybe too late for this season to buy and get installed.
But the biggest cause of damage and loss from a tropical storm of whatever intensity is water, and with you being on the beach you will get driven rain, salt spray and gusty winds. Keeping that water out and away from furnishings and electrical appliances and thoroughly cleaning afterwards must be high in your planning.
In this regard be ready to isolate utilities as part of your planning
You mentioned you are on the beach. consider storm surge. Walls will get washed over and destroyed by strong storm surge so look at our ground levels and building level which I hope are above 20 ft above mean sea level. High tide plus a big storm surge of 15 foot can make that unsafe too. Think where you park your car etc. After Dorian if you are on a coast you have to consider the risks of storm surge more these days. Dorian was a disaster for the Abacos because atmospheric conditions elsewhere caused it to stall for many hours at peak strength.
Another action is to revisit your insurance policy and the particular conditions and the coverage including contents and take photographic records.
And finally then later stock up with food, gas and money, candles and first aid. Yes having a generator will be an essential item should we get hit hard. DR is overdue a big one.
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Yes to all the above. Other than a huge hurricane, MOST of the damage in the last 20 years is from rain and flooding. It can be devastating!
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The last major impact for DR was Hurricane George in September 1998.
It is well worth looking at how George evolved and the tracking shown in the link above.
This general track is the dangerous track for DR either little bit north or south and that small wobble south at the Mona Straight saved the North from greater impact.
I hear stories from the folks in the centre of the country about the ferocity George and the damage it did to their homes and stories of hanging onto the roof poles purlins during the storm to stop the roof blowing away.
George hit before there was any development on the East Coast and travelled as a Cat 3 across much of DR until it hit the high mountains when it dropped to Cat 1.
If it hit today and was of Irma, Maria or Dorian strength, I care not think of the potential damage and it remains a reminder that we all need to be prepared.
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https://cdn.com.do/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Hurac%C3%A1n-Georges_CDN.png
The above link images gives one an idea how George may have been for those on the south coast, central and east coast. The eye was big and impressive and passing over/near the East Coast La Romana, Hato Mejor, El Seibo and SPM.
283 dead, 595 injured, 64 missing and 85k homeless. Destructive hurricane force winds reached as far inland as La Vega from the east and fully across the country from the Samana peninsula to the south coast.
23 years ago ago and counting until the next bad one..........
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@lennoxnev
Hi to my understanding most of the hurricanes are in the summer before November am I right?
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I Was in Santo Domingo 4 months after George! Incredible mess.
Our busiest time tends to be late August to middle October.
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Puerto Rico still hasn't recovered fully and rebuilt after Maria crossed our neighbouring island in 2017. Insurance claims are still being litigated.
A Maria crossing from the east and heading in a westerly direction will knock the stuffing out of much of DR with impacts varying depending on track.
We can easily forget what a bad storm is like. I weathered Ike in the TCI and saw and lived in the damage after Irma and Maria in St Croix, St Thomas and PR working with loss adjusters. Not nice until damage and roads are cleared, water is back on, then comms, then later electricity. If your home is damaged life is far worse. Being an island, resources for recovery take time to arrive.
My wife was living in SPM and she and family relate the chaos from George.
It is all part of living in the tropics in DR. A roll of the dice each season. One big windstorm event just like an earthquake impacting you can ruin everything.
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Totally agree. If something like that hits, it's many months to get back to some degree of normal.
My advice is always prepare if it's probable you will get hit. Here people say, "they warn us every time and it never happens". Well soon they will be right!
I make all my companies and clients prepare, just in case!
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Thank you all for the helpful information!
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1Always prepare for the worst…🤞 gas. , water , Batteries… and can foods never go bad , if it doesn’t hit you can always use everything overtime and replenish again at another time
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Another season without radars
The 2022 hurricane season begins today, for which a 65% probability higher than normal is predicted.
The bad omen of being impacted by some important phenomenon with serious consequences is always latent, and more so now by factors related to climate change or the degradation of coastal areas.
Fortunately, since Hurricane Georges in 1998 we have been blessed and we aspire to continue with the same fortune, because no one could wish otherwise in the midst of so many evils and difficulties caused by the pandemic and economic problems, now fueled by the war in Ukraine.
Although for a long time without devastating natural phenomena, the country has accumulated valuable lessons, especially from the behavior exhibited by relief agencies in the face of each alert.
The inter-institutional coordination has been commendable, which convinces us that we are prepared to face any attack.
But among the biggest failures in terms of material resources is that of technology in the meteorological field.
There is a pathetic absence, almost fatal: the Dominican Republic does not have Doppler radar systems to monitor atmospheric phenomena and more automatic stations are also needed.
As for radars, we have to help ourselves, each time, with resources available in Miami and Puerto Rico.
Another latent void for each season are the shelters, supposedly located but not necessarily available.
It is desperate to know that the first day of June will arrive and we will continue to address these deficiencies.
The acquisition of these radars would strengthen the meteorological disaster prevention systems and would allow much more security to be offered to the population, visitors and personnel dedicated to responding to emergencies.
It is necessary to be better prepared, in advance, to guarantee that these organizations have the necessary equipment and supplies and have the proper infrastructure.
It is the best way to deal with any natural disaster, although what is desirable is, for which we implore the Most High, that if one happens it will be far from the Dominican coast.
It does look possible that we do get our first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic (Alex) season imminently with development of the system coming off the southern Yucatan coast and predicted to head towards western Cuba and southern Florida. No threat to DR.
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Yes not having doppler radar is a big deal. I saw a notice the other day that they were looking to buy the system but it wont help us this year
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Predictions for the current season get bleaker......
Colorado State University hurricane researchers have increased their forecast and now predict a well above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2022. The odds of El Niño for this year’s hurricane season are now quite low, and the odds of La Niña conditions have increased relative to what was projected with the initial outlook in early April.
Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are now warmer than normal, while the eastern Atlantic is much warmer than normal. This type of sea surface temperature configuration is considered quite favorable for an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
The tropical eastern and central Pacific currently has weak La Niña conditions; that is, the water temperatures there are somewhat below average. CSU researchers anticipate that these waters will likely remain slightly (e.g., cool neutral ENSO) to somewhat below normal (e.g., La Niña) for the Atlantic hurricane season. They believe that El Niño is extremely unlikely this year. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.
The tropical Atlantic currently is warmer than normal, while the eastern Atlantic from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes is much warmer than normal. This type of sea surface temperature configuration tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions then lead to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
20 named storms
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 20 named storms in 2022. Of those, researchers expect 10 to become hurricanes and five to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. This forecast is an increase from the early April outlook which predicted 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
The team bases its forecasts on a statistical model, as well as three models that use a combination of statistical information and forecasts from dynamical models from the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. These models are built on 25-40 years of historical hurricane seasons and evaluate conditions including: Atlantic sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, vertical wind shear (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
So far, the 2022 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011 and 2021. “1996, 1999, 2008 and 2021 had above-average activity, while 2000 and 2011 had near-average activity,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.
The team predicts that 2022 hurricane activity will be about 145% of the average season. By comparison, 2021’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season. The 2021 hurricane season had eight continental U.S. named storm and two continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes, including Category 4 Hurricane Ida which battered the central Gulf Coast and then brought devastating flooding to the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S.
The CSU team will issue forecast updates on July 7 and Aug. 4.
This is the 39th year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued an Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast. The Tropical Meteorology Project team also includes Michael Bell, professor in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science, and Alex DesRosiers, graduate research assistant in the same department. Bill Gray, who originated the seasonal forecasts, launched the report in 1984 and continued to author them until his death in 2016.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season – not an exact measure.
As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season,” Bell said.
Landfalling probability included in report
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
76% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%)
51% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%)
50% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%)
65% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%)
The forecast team also provides probabilities of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of each county or parish along the Gulf and U.S. East Coast, as well as hurricane-prone coastal states, Mexican states, Canadian provinces and countries in Central America and the Caribbean. These probabilities for regions and countries are adjusted based on the current seasonal forecast and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season.
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It has been a quiet hurricane season so far, but now we are about to enter the peak period when 90% of the storms happen.
NOAA and Colorado State University have issued updates in the past few days on the season forecast and it remains above normal activity:
Here in DR over the past several months it has appeared to be cooler, but think about it. It has been abnormally wet with few periods of long dry weather. Why? A little research reveals the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean water temperatures have been above normal and that is a reason for more moisture in the air.
Reason to not relax and be prepared.
Global warming could be about to affect us here too soon. Hope not at least for this year.
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