Midterms election: A major challenge for Democrats
On November 8, US voters are to elect 435 members of the US House of Representatives with a two-year mandate. They will also be renewing one-third of the US Senate for a six-year term. For the ruling party, the midterms are a critical stage. These elections are generally considered as a referendum, a test for the running office. It is a democratic cornerstone that does not usually favor the executive, and the Biden administration is no exception to the rule! Battered by the health care crisis, soaring inflation, abortion rights issues, rising fuel prices and international crises, losing the midterms would be a heavy setback for Biden's party.
Nearly 8 million voters have already cast their votes in an early round. As with the presidential elections, the major battle will be held among a few key states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada. Despite several legal probes, Trump has entered the race with the determination to get revenge on Biden.
The government's majority is slim. In the House of Representatives, they hold only eight more seats than the Republicans, while in the Senate, Democrats and Republicans have an equal number of seats. It's worth mentioning that Democrats won only because of Senate President Kamala Harris. But the president insists: "Americans have a choice." Although the political climate is very tense, Joe Biden wants to rally his troops and defend his record rather than relying on the polls, and this seems to be his leitmotiv.
On October 28, David DePape allegedly assaulted Paul Pelosi, the husband of the Democratic leader of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi. On Tuesday, November 1, he pleaded not guilty to federal charges. To investigators, the suspect said he was targeting several high-profile political figures.
Other Democrats are concerned about the unhealthy climate in the country due to rising violence. Threats and intimidation are flying from all sides, and not just against Democrats! There are fears that election violence is becoming a regular feature of the American political landscape. The attack on the Capitol has raised fears of the worst. In this increasingly polarized country, nervousness is tangible, but so is weariness. But political commentators are expecting a high turnout.
Where does the Biden administration stand?
What is the overall performance of the Biden administration? Well, according to some commentators, the government has only succeeded in passing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Nevertheless, this legislation, which was signed into law on August 16, represents a real political milestone. The corporate tax system has been changed with the great aim of formally involving businesses in addressing climate change. Taxes on large corporations will also be increased in a bold move to "make the wealthiest pay their fair share," as President Biden repeatedly declared.
This 10-year, $369 billion "green plan" is the most extensive investment plan ever to protect the climate. Wind, solar, green hydrogen, sustainable transportation, electric cars, agriculture, industrial relocation, and construction are all industry segments targeted by the new bill. But critics point out that the new law is a slow one, arguing that its effects would not be felt for another 10 years. Moreover, the "all-electric" approach is strongly perceived as a non-solution, while the ecological costs and means of manufacturing are more questionable than ever. This is the case, especially when it comes to batteries, which are made of raw materials from the extraction of cobalt, lithium, copper, etc., and the abusive exploitation of water sources, not to mention the pollution caused by their transport. Other problems arise from the fact that these minerals are mainly found in geopolitically sensitive regions. Like the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produces 70% of the world's cobalt, but where children are also exploited to work in the mines, or China, the by-far largest producer of almost 75% of the world's lithium batteries. It imports this metal from its mines located abroad, mainly in Argentina, Chile and Australia. Beijing has clearly grasped the phenomenon of the electric car craze. It simply intends to become the world's leading supplier.
In the US, all eyes are on finances. Inflation is not decreasing, which is most Americans' main concern today. With +8.2% inflation in September, daily life continues to be a real source of misery. In one year, energy prices have risen by 20% and food prices by 11.2%. The risk of a recession in 2023 is growing. In September, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that there was no painless way to fight inflation. It remains to be seen whether this speech will resonate with voters, as the Fed has been increasingly criticized for months to have claimed that high inflation would only be temporary. But, on the other hand, the Biden administration can still count on its successes, especially the +2.6% growth between July and September and a dynamic labor market.
In November 2021, Biden signed another major piece of legislation: the $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan. This was seen as a historic achievement for the then-unpopular president. It is this feat that the Democrats hope to repeat in the midterms.
How do expats feel about Biden's politics?
Paranga, a French expat living in the US since 2017, shares his feelings about this tense situation. He has known the Trump administration and now knows the Biden one, which to his eyes, are two very different governing styles on paper only! In his opinion, the record is not so good.
"To be honest, I think both administrations have been disastrous. I hope the United States never has another President Trump in office, and I also hope President Biden doesn't serve another term. I think we may have had a string of the worst presidents in American history. And as far as I'm concerned, President Biden and his administration have a very poor record."
Regarding inflation, Paranga says the choices made by the Biden government are not very reassuring. He expressed the same concerns concerning energy policy. For Paranga, the government decided too early to abandon fossil fuels in favor of clean energy. He believes there is a real risk of weakening part of the American industry, which would directly affect millions of people, and worsen inflation. But he also acknowledges the impact of the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine. He believes that a wiser solution could have been: "A mix of energies, where improving fossil fuels to reduce pollution, along with the ongoing development of new energies that are cleaner, would be more efficient".
The French expatriate takes an example that he considers revealing: the electric car. For him, this is the so-called "miracle solution" on which many governments, including the United States and many European Union countries, are banking. "What about the enormous pollution created by its manufacture, especially that of batteries, which is a real environmental problem? The electric car pollutes less when you drive it, but it pollutes more when you manufacture it. It is not a miracle solution.”
He also points out the risk of dependence of the United States on China, its main economic rival that dominates the world's lithium-battery market.
Paranga sees Biden's social achievements as equally worrisome. "I don't see any improvement for minorities and the lowest social classes... On the contrary, I see white-collar workers living better and blue-collar workers falling further into precariousness every day...". The same is true of security. "What can we say about the violence in underprivileged neighborhoods, which is still going on, while Biden and his colleagues have insisted that this is their priority? How can they explain that the police are racist and do their job poorly? What has that chatter led to? There still are abandoned neighborhoods with no law and order, where innocent children are the prey to gunshots every day in the city of Chicago alone... It's revolting and infinitely sad. What's the alternative? Republicans and Trump? How can you not be desperate?"
Paranga dismisses both Democrats' and Republicans' arguments. "There is a crisis of political parties in the US. Politics has become a propaganda vehicle that promotes ideologies that do not serve the public interest (on either side) very well. I don't know what will first take down the USA. Environmental disasters or its corrupt and incompetent politicians..." While Paranga does not seem to be very optimistic for the future, he hopes for the politicians to wake up: "It is time that the American politicians wake up and offer innovative ideas and that all elected officials, especially in Washington, fight for the people."
