New storms brewing in the Atlantic

Keep a close eye on the one closest to us (INVEST 96L). It might develop into a cyclone and get close to PR..

National Hurricane Center wrote:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph.  Interests in the
Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of this system.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

This is the Hurricane Center's forecast issued early Saturday morning regarding the storm Gary has been referring:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs
of organization, but it is unclear if the system has a well-defined
center of circulation.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time today or on Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.  Hurricane or tropical storm
watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles later
today, and interests on those islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

I don't like the looks of the path for Tropical depression 15.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.sh … e#contents

Nor the predicted escalation of the wind to "M" at the time the current projection has it crossing PR.  M=Major Hurricane 110>.

As of now she is Tropical Storm Maria. if she becomes a hurricane, she will keep her name

Never mess with Maria

Watching it like a hawk.   Just ordered flood insurance, but it doesn't cover for thirty days.   

This is getting nerve wracking.   Think I'll have a Guinness.

Tropical tidbits has a good video up today about tropical cyclone Maria, headed Puerto Rico way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRINzNR8SFo

Yeah, it looks like Maria will make landfall here as a major hurricane, Wednesday afternoon.
Gotta love living in hurricane alley...

Gary, sorry for the double whammy, this sucks.

I hope she's "My Maria"  because I'm not there and then she'll miss you.

"My Maria", #1 Country song 1996, Brooks and Dunne, sold 6,000,000.

But it sure doesn't look good if one, she strengthens, and two, she stays on course.

As of 5pm, 96 hours away from PR, NOAA now projects arrival at 1700 Wed.
But a dimmer runway then her sister Irma's--she went as they predicted, N/NW of PR, the only big error in that forecast as we know was she was predicted to go further N and around the top of the VI's. She didn't, Irma 'cut to the left, cut to the left' and came roughly across the middle of the VI's on it's way to only blowin PR a big big kiss.

Maria is not forecast to go that far north on her approach. Coming at PR much lower from the SE, and this time thru the Caribbean, and hitting St Croix for the hurricane Trifecta USVI's 2017. Remember Hugo devastated St Croix in '89 on his way to clobbering East PR, killing 12 in Guayama. That's what bothers me about this Caribbean approach.

Maria's eye is predicted to come thru the Passage between PR and the VI's Wednesday, and if you connect the dots of her projected coordinates of where she is supposed to be Wed to Thursday, her eye will have rolled east Vieques and then Fajardo and dead ahead to SJ. That's just the eye--hurricane force winds are going to cover most of PR this time if correct, maybe Cabo and just maybe Rincon getting only a bib big kiss.

But, we all know how the forecast was wrong on Sandy this many days out, and Irma's left turn a few hundred miles sooner then predicted last week, so obviously the coordinates are a fluid situation tonight. But if Maria keeps getting fancied up and then doesn't  think about a different dance hall by Monday mornin', I'd be headed out of San Dodge or renting a Cessna.

I am basing all of this on the following coordinates given by the NOAA at 5pm today (Saturday). If you have google earth or what have you, you can do your own chart and entertain your own conclusions.

12H  17/0600Z 13.0N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  17/1800Z 13.9N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  18/0600Z 14.6N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  18/1800Z 15.2N  59.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  19/1800Z 16.5N  62.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  20/1800Z 17.9N  65.5W  105 KT 120 MP

Next data release from NOAA is 2300 EDT.

PS: I just looked at the spaghetti models from the U of Wisconsin, a world leader in compiling the various models and forecasting this stuff. As opposed to Irma last week with only one model, the US Navy, diverging from the pack of spaghetti's about the VI thing, there are at least 4 models that have Maria swinging way south of PR after entering the Caribbean and headed west toward the DR and missing PR--wouldn't that be sweet?

Maybe not so sweet for Ponce/Cabo depending, but still looked far enough away even from those locations.

That is a common path USCG. The key is how close to the island

The path some models are suggesting and we are hoping for is for Maria to come from the south to PR's south coast and then go west along PR's south coast on toward the Mona Passage and to the DR, but stay off shore. You say this is a common path. Well you may be right because I know of one that went that way from the east since 1980. Courtesy of this Hurricane handbook the USCG passed out: Hurricanes in Puerto Rico 1980-2014.

That one happened in 2014. Bertha took that path as we are hoping Maria does, from the Antilles up to Pr's South East Coast/Guayama area and then west along the coast to the Mona Passage and on to the DR.to the south coast of PR, and she didn't make land on its way to the DR. Perfect if Maria replicates that.

That's the only one that was reported taking that route. Maybe the Officer who wrote this pamphlet missed some. Hopefully.

He reported the following hurricanes or Tropical Storms:

All he noted came from the east or NE, not SE, and headed N or N Easterly and did not spin down to the south coast and then westward offshore as a few models are suggesting Maria might and as we too are hoping.

Emily in 2011, approached the SW coast of PR but not from the east like Maria's possible path, and she continued going N thru the Mona to the DR w/out landfall. Anyway not from the east to the west as we are hoping so not a real comparison.

And here's a strange one, Olga in 2007 oddly coming down from the north east, and then tracking the N Coast of PR off shore from SJ to Isabela on it's way to the DR, that's East to West but north Coast not the South coast, but didn't make land. Sitka may note that one.

Tropical Storm Gert in 1981 moved from SE coast near Guaynabo straight N to Fajardo and not to the west as we are hoping.

Tropical Storm Klaus if you even call it that on Nov 7 ‘84 Election Day (the feds like noting stuff like that) because only 3" of rain and 35 mph winds. He came from the east and crossed PR at Roosevelt Roads military base on the mid-east coast of PR and fizzled..

Hurricane Hugo the disaster in 1989 was from the East, clobbered Culebra and Vieques, made landfall eastern shore at Luquillo and transversed PR NEasterly.

Hurricane Luis in 1995 came from the east and passed PR northeast no landfall

Hurricane Marilyn also in ‘95 also came from the east, clobbered Culebra, but stayed east of PR.

Hurricane Bertha in 1996, in July and one of the earliest months on record, approached from the east and passed PR 30 nautical miles NE.

Hurricane Georges in 1998, the notes say was the worst to hit PR since Hurricane Ciprian in 1932, also came from the east, clobbered Vieques, and then  made landfall in Fajardo at 110 MPH. Ciprian came from the east and made landfall in Ceiba PR. So both made landfall on the central East Coast of PR and transversed NW.

Tropical Storm Jose in 1999 came from the east, passed N of the USVI and then 20 nautical miles north of Culebra and then headed NE, the closest it got to PR was 45 nautical miles NE of Fajardo.

Hurricane Lenny in 1999 was noted as an “odd” occurrence–very late at Nov 17, and also because it passed PR in the opposite direction as the norm, he came from the West and went to the East. It passed PR at sea 75 nautical miles SE of Cabo Rojo on its Eastward path getting to 15 nautical miles of St Croix but moved away and fizzled.

Hurricane Debby in 2000 came from the east and passed PR going NE 30 nautical miles NE of the coast.

Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 noted as the worst since Georges in ‘98, made landfall in Guanabo on the SE coast but transversed south to north exiting near Arecibo, and not east to west off the south coast as we are hoping Maria may.

Hurricane Kyle produced a lot of rain SW PR in 2008 but a different path in getting SW, not east to west as we are hoping.  Same with Tropical Storm Erika in 2009.

Hurricane Earl in 2010 came from the east, hit the Virgin Islands then headed NW, no PR landfall but heavy rains.

Still hoping that Maria will be the 2nd one to take that off the South Coast all the way west route.

As close as Irma came, I hate to admit I am much less concerned about Maria coming onto the island somehow.  I'll watch some Weather Channel and that should scare me back into shape.

Bryson74 wrote:

As close as Irma came, I hate to admit I am much less concerned about Maria coming onto the island somehow.  I'll watch some Weather Channel and that should scare me back into shape.

I'm not saying anybody should be concerned. Being prepared is what you should when living here. Get your supplies and secure your property!

The last path I saw, looks like it will enter around Salinas and comet around Moca, Specially where it lands it will cause a lot of damage, they expect it to be a cat 3 when it makes landfall. I would not worry about the storm in a concrete house, but as to power and water, that is another matter. I expect a lot more damage to power lines this time around.

Maria is a hurricane now (5PM advisory NHC)

Track over PR according to Sunday 5PM advisory

This will be major damage along the path of the eye.     

Sitka wrote:

This will be major damage along the path of the eye.     

Yup. Exactly what PR doesn't need..

A good portion of the center that surrunds the eye will cover most of PR it is not just the eye

Irma edge hit highly populated areas, mostly concrete.
This one, Maria will be passing over less populated areas, with some houses made of wood, winds around twice as strong as what San Juan got, and it is agriculture area, so a lot of vegetation and woods will be affected, roads will be clobbered with debris, a lot more electric lines will come down and water without electricity will not be able to reach a lot of the towns, this one is going to be a lot worse in my opinion. Say goodbye to coffee and a lot of agriculture.

ReyP wrote:

A good portion of the center that surrunds the eye will cover most of PR it is not just the eye

Exactly. And the dirty side of the storm is for us in the south-east and later for the metro area.

Ughhhhhh...😩

We're looking a t a cat. 4 hurricane now. 140Mph winds. 

Where does anyone go to lessen the danger? I still haven't heard from my friend on St. T after Irma.
Please stay safe.

DocRob wrote:

Where does anyone go to lessen the danger? I still haven't heard from my friend on St. T after Irma.
Please stay safe.

Most people don't go anywhere, they ride it out at home.
I read that during Irma around 6,000 people made use of shelters but I don't know if that's the official number.

For the poor, no where to run, no where to hide Doc, as we all know.

NOAA postings of coordinates have been great if you are one of the souls still on an Island in the Antilles. Disappointing for PR watchers. For the passed 36 hs the closest PR coordinate given is 125+ off shore at 0500 Wed (17.3N 64.8W), and then the next is Thurs 5pm (19N 67.7W) after she has passed PR and 150 miles+ well up the DR coast.

No clue why they have not published a crucial 5pm Wed coordinate, left to a proximate guess as to landfall.

But you can look at their other "Products" as they call them. The Interactive Map which Gary published yesterday for example. Gary if you aren't understandably overwhelmed, do your wonders and publish today's 0800 model. I tried snipping for the board to no avail. 

To summarize the 0800 chart if Gary is stuck, the plane has changed vectors very significantly projecting her entering and leaving shore since Gary's post yesterday. Now saying the eye will come ashore near Punta Tuna Lighthouse and exit at Arecibo.

Matters? Maybe some light for extreme SW sector, not better for nearer NE sector, the right side is always stronger. And maybe Lares and San Sebastian and Rincon area upbeat about her center of the eye not going over their top--if that matters much the size of her eye and her strongest winds projecting 35 miles on an of island 35 miles.

But two days off shore, does this trend mean she will continue to vector entering miles further north up the East Coast--Fajardo? Which would change it's plane maybe back west toward Rincon again or maybe angle it further east toward the Vegas and Toas?

I agree with Gary, humor is a de-stressor.

"Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide"

Martha and the Vandellas  1965

The biggest seller of their 23 top 100 hits.

USCG wrote:

Gary if you aren't understandably overwhelmed, do your wonders and publish today's 0800 model.

Taking a break from preparations and writing some invoices so I might find some money in bank at the other side of Maria's passage.

Here's the 11AM map.

Gary , What site generates this map?

USCG:
So the latest is almost an Irma like path?
This shows deep red on the east coast again?
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSanJuan?r … v%2Fsju%2F

CasaSunny wrote:

Gary , What site generates this map?

National Hurricane Center. Here's a link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic … k#contents

I didn't look at this Product for Irma so I can't say. But I have looked at all 9 versions of it since it began on Sat until the one Gary just posted which was today's 11am model. First one had it entering Fajardo exiting Arecibo and then it swung lower on both coasts to Guaynabo-Rincon area and then up north to Tuna Light House-Arecibo a few hours ago and now back down to Guaynabo-Camuy. Round and round and round she goes, where she stops nobody knows.

Looks to go directly over our place.

Elcalipocho wrote:

So the latest is almost an Irma like path?

No! Irma's center stayed like 45 miles north of PR, Maria is forecast to go straight over the island. A huge difference in potential destruction.

Elcalipocho wrote:

This shows deep red on the east coast again?

Yes but it's on the US and British Virgin Islands.
The difference between red and pink is:
pink: Hurricane Watch - hurricane conditions possible within 48 hours
red: Hurricane Warning - hurricane conditions expected within 36 hours
From tonight's or tomorrow early AM's advisories onward until after Maria left the island the PR coast will be dark red all around the island.

Ok good point 

Cyclones challenge scientists, a given, look at Sandy.

Always intriguing to me is the eye. Typically 30-65 km, but can be as large as 320 km (Carmen–remember Forest Gump?) to as small as 3.7 km (Wilma). But Wilma, a 3,  almost made Miami one of the new Florida Keys in 2005, cut right across S FL w/ peaks at 180mph.

We all know the same eye can cross over Arecibo and Aguadilla. May or may not matter.   

There is less rain and wind in the eye, we've all seen movies of the airplane entering that calm. Under it may or may not be a different story, but that's another story for a different bed time.

But all the genius in that biz dread and agree that in a powerful healthy hurricane, the one thing you don't want is what is referred to as a  "pinhole eye”. 

Like Wilma.
                                                                                                   
Like her and tough men, watch out for the little guys.

Chat with y'all Tuesday.

I've been using this tool.

http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

It appeared to be fairly accurate with Irma 10 miles +/-