Will the elections be a problem?

Our prayer is we have a free, fair and peaceful elections. We don't wish for any problem here, join us in prayers

I doubt that they will be pushed back (December being the traditional time to hold them).  Whether they will be peaceful or not - well its looking good so far. 

However, one or two political commentators are predicting that due to the opposition leaders' quest for power, there may well be vote rigging and an attempt to stir up violence, if he loses.

The last election was peaceful, but there appears to be more at stake this time around.

This close to the date, all you can really do is wait and see what the outcome is.

Hi,
no the election will not be a problem
i am sure couse I do talk to politicians  (some family memebers of both parties too)
Uhuru will probably win again, although Raila is very close to him right now.
in case Raila will pass him, i do beleive that he will sell his votes to Uhuru as he did
last time,
for 2021, things will change for the good of the Nation and common sense.
Kenya is and will remain the living room of Africa,
but Zambia, Uganda, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Mozambique will be better place to live
less taxes, faster growth less crime.

Thanks. Kenya is home for my husband so I have to go wherever he is and we definitely can't stay in the USA. He doesn't want to be here and I don't like it myself.

Hopefully everything will go well and things won't get crazy. My plan was to come back for another visit in September before finalizing the move in December. I'll keep my fingers crossed :-D

if you don't feel safe , just go back by the end of september,
Election will be settle and trust me, no big issue will occur
In case some little fights between Luo and Kikuyu as usual, but
by the time you'll be there all will be settle and fine.
looking forward to meet you there in December

Bandrea!This Kenya heheee...anyway!

<<In case some little fights between Luo and Kikuyu as usual>>

Basically what happened in 2008 then?  Which certainly shouldn't be downplayed.  As I have previously stated, the last election was peaceful though, but there is arguably more at stake this time.

<<in case Raila will pass him, i do beleive that he will sell his votes to Uhuru as he did
last time,>>

First I've heard that this actually happened.  Its unlikely to happen as this is basically Raila's last shot at the top job and he wants it!

As for better places to live............Zimbabwe..........surely not?  Uganda; arguably more corrupt.  Namibia, Botswana and probably South Africa are arguably better and cheaper than Kenya.

Tanzonhoilday;  In little over a month we will know for sure the way things are.  I would imagine that you could hold off arranging your September travel plans until then.  September isn't peak season and flight prices should be reasonable.

I was at the Devolution meeting in Kisumu in April 2015 and trust me, the atmosphere was very friendly between Raila and Uhuru, Surely they do race during election, but out of it they go hand by hand
and also , true that this is Raila's last shot, but there is already a plan for 2021 beleive it or not.
I m not talking about corruption, i am talking about life cost in Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia,
which is less costly than Kenya, Corruption is all over, Europe, Asia, Usa,
so is nothing new, but what is more important is that lately a common sense is showing up also by politicians.
I do work with them, and I realized that they are showing they care more and more about their citizens
not only in Kenya but also in Uganda and Tanzania,
In Zambia and Senegal  is very different, there Politicians are very scared to be charged of Corruption, they do not play with it,

Bandrea; I hear what you say, but I don't think that the political mood in 2015 can be used as a gauge of how this years election will be.  After all 2015 was mid term and a long way from a general election.  Things have progressively heated up over the last few months.

My wife also knows quite a few political figures.  Yet again, tribalism has emerged as a political tool.  The Kikuyu community is gearing itself for a 'robust' response, if necessary.

There are strong indications that the opposition will not accept a loss.   

I am not sure that these are indicators of political maturity.  Of course its usually forgotten that Kenya is a relatively young nation too.

I whole heartedly agree with your comment on corruption.  Nevertheless, in countries like Kenya it is so much worse and present at all levels.  In the UK, I don't  expect to have to bribe a public employee, or a police officer to get anything done, but in Kenya its part of life!

Hi Longonot
I can't really have a good view of the all picture ofccourse, surely things are different since 2015, right now i report only what they tell me, i will have a much better idea
and panorama starting from August, when i will be there.
Lets hope for the best,
Kenya is a great Country and deserves the best guidance from whos above.
To me it doesn't make so much difference who will win the election,
I am dealing with both sides,
but there is one person (which is near one of the 2 main Actors) in particular I don' t really like couse of  his behave.............
lets pray that the Best one of them will be in place.
;

The biggest difference between 2007/08 and the last election was that in the first one the Kalenjin and Kikuyus were in different camps while the last time they were together. When these two groups are together there has not been any major violence at elections in the past. This time they are still together, so I am very relaxed. Am actually coming back to Kenya just before the elections because it is fascinating to follow and analyze the development. It is very likely that Jubilee because, like last time they have been more successful than NASA when it comes to register voters. That Raila sold votes to Uhuru in the last election is the most fake news I have heard for a while. Someone saying that can't have understood the political atmosphere between these two guys. They are friends, personally, because their families (clans) have cooperated businesswise and familywise since independence. But politically they are fierce opponents since their dads fell out with each other politically decades ago.

If Uhuru wins there will probably be some local noise around Kisumu and a little in the poorer areas of Nairobi, but I would be surprised if it will be felt in general in Nairobi. Nakuru and Mombasa should be ok. Many analysts, especially foreigners, make the mistake of underestimating the new devolved system. After the new constitution the winner doesn't take it all! Uhuru can win the presidency, but then the opposition knows that they will win elections of governors and senators in their strongholds. The central government doesn't hold so much control of the counties like in the old system.

However, if Raila wins the presidency, I would be more worried about violence. Not because I wouldn't like him to get a try, but I seriously wonder if Kikuyus and Kalenjin businesspeople/powerpeople will sit and just look at their influence being reduced considerably.

The tragic part of Kenyan elections is that young, educated, bright people prefer to give their opinions in social media. They just don't want to queue for voting in the hot sun or pouring rain. A new young party getting the votes of they young (the majority!) would have an easy walk to power.

Torewest:  I sincerely hope that you are correct.  Indeed the new constitution should make politically motivated violence less likely. However, there are signs of incitement appearing and many parallels with 2007/2008, with little will to arrest the perpetrators.

The post election violence of 2008 was mostly about the presidential vote, as Kibaki's PNU did actually lose.  It's as much about the top job as ever, this time around too. I don't think that the county elections will make a lot of difference.  We also have an opposition who have declared that they will not accept a losing result.

In 2008 it was as much about the Luo versus Kikuyu people, as it could be again.  Don't forget that prior to 2002, there was a rather different regime, and little election violence as a result.

Meanwhile;  Flights out of Kenya are very busy, flower farm workers in Naivasha are all desperately trying to be out of the immediate area, people are buying pangas and so on.

I must say, this is the first time that I had heard of voter apathy amongst the youth.  Quite the opposite, I have read.  There are, after all many young people in Kenya. Something like 80% are under 35 years.

Yes, Longonot, we certainly agree that we want peaceful elections. You mentioned the 2008 elections for presidency. At that time there was still the old constitution and the president was almost a dictator. Last election the big guys and women realized that they could win a lot of power through the elections for senators, governors and even the local positions. That changed a lot. Why was there no violence last time? It's almost the same scenario this time. Many believe it was hard to mobilize the traditional opposition fighters because most of them got fat positions anyway.
In the recent past few young people have voted. Last election there were approx 14 mill voters and 85% turned up. Now we have 19 mill voters out of a population of maybe 48 mill. Many of the newly registered voters are young. If they choose to show up we might get a change.  However, in the last election almost every voter followed their  tribal leader. Whether man or woman, young or old, rich or poor,  educated or not, they did. This is not because they necessarily love their tribal guy, but it's about lack of trust in the 'other' guys.

Practically, if Uhuru wins and the opposition go violent, i believe the state resources will be used to keep them in control. BUT, what if Raila wins? Then I would be more reluctant to predict a peaceful aftermath. Because then the loser controls the state resources. Basically, I believe in Kenyans ability to fix this.

Yes, I guess no one doubts that Kibaki stole the 2008 election.

Unfortunately, tribal loyalties seem more important than what politicians stand for in terms of furthering the country.  Voting along tribal lines, to me, is mostly about ensuring that things will be better for 'their people' and a certain group being properly represented.  Politicians need to lead by example, but tribalism is a too useful political tool, which gets used time and time again.

I believe that the big difference this time is that this is Raila's last chance at being president.  It is something which seems particularly important to him.

No I believe all will be well. Once bitten twice shy... most Kenyans wouldn't want a repeat of 2007 again