Hurricane Planning

Here are some good tips for preparing for the hurricane season written by a fellow who has experience in the matter .
This year (2021) is predicted to be another active one.
======================================================
   

   
 


   I have recently been working along side loss adjusters in the USVI following the impacts of both Hurricanes Irma and Maria, and have been a resident in the Caribbean for more than 17 years and involved in the design and construction of numerous buildings of all types as well as living through many tropical storms and hurricanes, but not seen anything so close as this years major storms.

In DR we were incredibly fortunate the tracks of either of those storms was not 50 to 100 miles further south or west, or DR would have suffered badly in certain regions and the festive season would have been grim.

I thought I would share a few thoughts to home owners and renters in DR on what could happen, based upon what I have seen inspecting numerous windstorm damaged dwellings and businesses and interacting with the experiences of the insured in the badly damaged USVI.

Only when both Irma and Maria were heading in our direction, people were desperate for information on what to do with their property. It is too late then, so now is an opportune time to plan ahead for the next season and beyond and I hope the following helps:

• Look at your power situation locally. Look at the power transmission in particular and if the feed is by overhead power line and expect significant long delays (several months perhaps) in restoring power and cable services. Some areas of DR have private providers and underground distribution and they will likely be served better after a storm. I am thinking that the East Coast and Las Galeras might fare better. But my suggestion is that you look at solar photovoltaic DC supply and battery storage and inversion to AC. I met insured persons who had solar but entered into contracts to sell the electricity to the grid and were sat at home without power and regretted their short sightedness. Generators are a secondary option and noisy and need regular maintenance if your power is out for months.

• Also change to cooking by gas and maybe also for water heating. Electric stoves may look good but are absolutely useless with no juice.

• Think water supply. Even if you have cistern storage without power you might not be able to access that source of water and showering will become a desperate need. And time to think water purification too.

• Think laundry. No electrical supply and a need to wash clothes sodden with sweat.

• Thankfully not so many homes in DR have timber frame constructed roofing however, I've seen many such roof failures from the ring (bond) beam detaching itself from the block wall due to poor vertical reinforcement to rafter uplift through poor hurricane strapping to purlin uplift where nailed rather than screwed. But by far the most common roof damage is the uplift of the roof covering again due to poor fixing. And often the solar panels go too because of poor fixing. Well fixed panels don't go anywhere. Good roof truss construction and proper hurricane clipping to a bond beam which is anchored down to the foundations through continuous rebar in concrete infill columns and concrete filled block voids.

• But water ingress is the costly event. Make sure that roofing is good first then look at your windows. Louvre windows and jalousie will be no use in severe rain driven winds and the water will find it's way in through them. Even through poorly constructed external doors water finds it's way in. Mosquito screens will get destroyed so best to remove and store them. Don't think hurricane shutters are the answer either. I've seen the folding ones fail due to poor fixings. Consider the fabric ones or better still the time proven permanent Bermuda type shutters. I've seen windows screens behind hurricane shutters blown out. Big windows screens and sliding doors are a big risk. I've seen external walls blown in and find out that the construction has been cement board on stud framing and stucco...it doesn't work with these powerful storms.

• Check all your window and balcony door fixings and if they are spaced more than 12 inches apart question the adequacy. If they are corroding, change them to stainless steel.

• Back to roof. The roof sheeting should be overlapped by two upstand profiles. And properly sealed and screwed. Look at all the flashings and especially the ridge capping. Gutters will take a hit for sure. Concrete roofs will normally fare well but keep the elastomeric roof paint maintained but any parapet capping may suffer. If you have roof tiles or shingles expect a lot of damage. Even properly installed standing seam roofs let water in…generally at the details. Out door balconies are also subject to extra uplift forces. The wind gets into these areas and exerts significant stresses and can be the beginning of the end for the main roof. Look at you balconies and any porches and imagine the worst.

• Internal gutters will prove a disaster in the making in general. They won't handle the rainfall and outlets will back up with the wind-blown debris. The ponded water on the roofing will then find its own way down under gravity and that could be through concrete cracks and weaknesses.

• Plan for water ingress. Protect any thing vulnerable. Design to avoid vulnerability. Make sure your content cover is enough. Internal finishes easily get damaged and internal doors invariably are ruined along with kitchen cabinetry and toilet vanities. Water also gets under tiling and especially in DR where there is a tendency to lay 1st floor tiles on a bed of mortar this could be a big issue. Sheetrock will get damaged and be ruined and a source of mold growth and if the water is from above all will need to be changed.

• Look at your garden and surroundings. Even neighbours places. I've seen whole roofing slammed up against another house and the insured may get a small sum to clear such debris which was not theirs. Check your insurance policy carefully for what is covered externally. Weather heads will go and are they covered?

• Also check if your property is sufficiently insured and the value at risk is sufficiently covered.

• And importantly before a storm hits or is a probability go take record photographs before the event and in the unfortunate event plenty immediately afterwards for the insurance claim.

• Water being the main problem could impact you through flood damage depending on where you live and how your house is sited. Check your cover.

• Finally check your deductible. It is a percentage of the sum insured and quite often a large sum. Insurance premiums will go up throughout the Caribbean for everybody even if the storms missed you. Understand your insurance and evaluate the risks as your number one New Years resolution.

Again, please take some time to evaluate your property well before hurricane season comes around and take early actions to avoid the potential misery that has afflicted so many islanders this year.

I do wish the Dominican government would do so likewise.

As always plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Good day
what is the best part of DR that have less Hurricane?
and less power outages?

thanks

Hurricane preparedness is important.  Have a plan and  make sure all  people in your household or business know what to do!

Sadly most do no preparation here and the consequences can be devestating.

Less hurricanes -  there are areas more prone to issues and others less so.  The entire island is in a hurricane  prone area.   Often  tropical storms do more damage than hurricanes.  Rain fall amounts and duration are big issues. Wind is another.   Most here do not have the resources to prepare!   and there is an overlying attitude that some greater power will protect them.

Power outages -   from a  powerful storm EVERYWHERE. From regular power outages check  where you intend to live.   It can change from  neighborhood to neighborhood!

THe north coast has a good record of very few hurricanes.

But you have recently had some BAD experiences with  tropical storms over the last  few years.......    And yes that was unusual. 

The interior has even less "hurricanes' but they do get  the results of  tropical storms passing over and dumping  a lot of rain!

My point was there is no completely  safe place.  Understand the risks,  understand how to protect yourself as best you can!

WillieWeb:

This is EXTREMELY useful; thanks for sharing it. 

Now, since we plan to start as snowbirders, I need to figure out how to apply it to rental properties.  Hopefully a small villa, but more probably a condo. 

Although...as I've been sitting here musing this topic...I've started to wonder if it would be possible to find a house thus prepared for a hurricane...which means it is probably also well-prepared for an earthquake...and the owners aren't going to be visiting that particular time of year (November to say mid-March).   Or perhaps a condo unit that is similarly well-prepared. 
>>  Would they be willing to rent it to folks that could/would appreciate the disaster preparedness aspects of their property? 
>>  Paying house-sitters, if you will...but with a discount because we know what we're doing around natural disasters (we volunteer on various local emergency preparedness committees and response task forces back in Idaho). 

I think it would be pretty horrific to plan a pleasant vacation in paradise...only to find a hurricane has decided to ruin our fun.  Even if we flew out, it could be weeks (at least) before airports are back at full capacity.  And if we couldn't fly out??  Had to stay put?  Yes, I believe I would like to be in a property with a generator. 

Now, the question becomes...how do I find such a specific property, and approach its owners?

Any suggestions would be appreciated.


Jim
ExpatRusher

WillieWeb wrote:

Here are some good tips for preparing for the hurricane season written by a fellow who has experience in the matter .
This year (2021) is predicted to be another active one.
======================================================
   
   I have recently been working along side loss adjusters in the USVI following the impacts of both Hurricanes Irma and Maria, and have been a resident in the Caribbean for more than 17 years and involved in the design and construction of numerous buildings of all types as well as living through many tropical storms and hurricanes, but not seen anything so close as this years major storms.

In DR we were incredibly fortunate the tracks of either of those storms was not 50 to 100 miles further south or west, or DR would have suffered badly in certain regions and the festive season would have been grim.

I thought I would share a few thoughts to home owners and renters in DR on what could happen, based upon what I have seen inspecting numerous windstorm damaged dwellings and businesses and interacting with the experiences of the insured in the badly damaged USVI.

Only when both Irma and Maria were heading in our direction, people were desperate for information on what to do with their property. It is too late then, so now is an opportune time to plan ahead for the next season and beyond and I hope the following helps:

• Look at your power situation locally. Look at the power transmission in particular and if the feed is by overhead power line and expect significant long delays (several months perhaps) in restoring power and cable services. Some areas of DR have private providers and underground distribution and they will likely be served better after a storm. I am thinking that the East Coast and Las Galeras might fare better. But my suggestion is that you look at solar photovoltaic DC supply and battery storage and inversion to AC. I met insured persons who had solar but entered into contracts to sell the electricity to the grid and were sat at home without power and regretted their short sightedness. Generators are a secondary option and noisy and need regular maintenance if your power is out for months.

• Also change to cooking by gas and maybe also for water heating. Electric stoves may look good but are absolutely useless with no juice.

• Think water supply. Even if you have cistern storage without power you might not be able to access that source of water and showering will become a desperate need. And time to think water purification too.

• Think laundry. No electrical supply and a need to wash clothes sodden with sweat.

• Thankfully not so many homes in DR have timber frame constructed roofing however, I've seen many such roof failures from the ring (bond) beam detaching itself from the block wall due to poor vertical reinforcement to rafter uplift through poor hurricane strapping to purlin uplift where nailed rather than screwed. But by far the most common roof damage is the uplift of the roof covering again due to poor fixing. And often the solar panels go too because of poor fixing. Well fixed panels don't go anywhere. Good roof truss construction and proper hurricane clipping to a bond beam which is anchored down to the foundations through continuous rebar in concrete infill columns and concrete filled block voids.

• But water ingress is the costly event. Make sure that roofing is good first then look at your windows. Louvre windows and jalousie will be no use in severe rain driven winds and the water will find it's way in through them. Even through poorly constructed external doors water finds it's way in. Mosquito screens will get destroyed so best to remove and store them. Don't think hurricane shutters are the answer either. I've seen the folding ones fail due to poor fixings. Consider the fabric ones or better still the time proven permanent Bermuda type shutters. I've seen windows screens behind hurricane shutters blown out. Big windows screens and sliding doors are a big risk. I've seen external walls blown in and find out that the construction has been cement board on stud framing and stucco...it doesn't work with these powerful storms.

• Check all your window and balcony door fixings and if they are spaced more than 12 inches apart question the adequacy. If they are corroding, change them to stainless steel.

• Back to roof. The roof sheeting should be overlapped by two upstand profiles. And properly sealed and screwed. Look at all the flashings and especially the ridge capping. Gutters will take a hit for sure. Concrete roofs will normally fare well but keep the elastomeric roof paint maintained but any parapet capping may suffer. If you have roof tiles or shingles expect a lot of damage. Even properly installed standing seam roofs let water in…generally at the details. Out door balconies are also subject to extra uplift forces. The wind gets into these areas and exerts significant stresses and can be the beginning of the end for the main roof. Look at you balconies and any porches and imagine the worst.

• Internal gutters will prove a disaster in the making in general. They won't handle the rainfall and outlets will back up with the wind-blown debris. The ponded water on the roofing will then find its own way down under gravity and that could be through concrete cracks and weaknesses.

• Plan for water ingress. Protect any thing vulnerable. Design to avoid vulnerability. Make sure your content cover is enough. Internal finishes easily get damaged and internal doors invariably are ruined along with kitchen cabinetry and toilet vanities. Water also gets under tiling and especially in DR where there is a tendency to lay 1st floor tiles on a bed of mortar this could be a big issue. Sheetrock will get damaged and be ruined and a source of mold growth and if the water is from above all will need to be changed.

• Look at your garden and surroundings. Even neighbours places. I've seen whole roofing slammed up against another house and the insured may get a small sum to clear such debris which was not theirs. Check your insurance policy carefully for what is covered externally. Weather heads will go and are they covered?

• Also check if your property is sufficiently insured and the value at risk is sufficiently covered.

• And importantly before a storm hits or is a probability go take record photographs before the event and in the unfortunate event plenty immediately afterwards for the insurance claim.

• Water being the main problem could impact you through flood damage depending on where you live and how your house is sited. Check your cover.

• Finally check your deductible. It is a percentage of the sum insured and quite often a large sum. Insurance premiums will go up throughout the Caribbean for everybody even if the storms missed you. Understand your insurance and evaluate the risks as your number one New Years resolution.

Again, please take some time to evaluate your property well before hurricane season comes around and take early actions to avoid the potential misery that has afflicted so many islanders this year.

I do wish the Dominican government would do so likewise.

As always plan for the worst and hope for the best.

It's unlikely to find a fully prepared property that is for rent.

Depending what time of year your visit it may not be a risky time.

Water ingress with damage and loss of power and water plus wi fi are the factors that are likely to affect expats most after a tropical storm.

So, a building of concrete and masonry construction, which is the most common here, without excessive glazing, well above sea level and not near rivers with good drainage away from the property and back up generator and its own cistern are specifics you should look for.

Small windows if well fixed are low risk of damage (from flying objects) if well fixed. Check the property outside for trees that could be felled or loose objects that can fly. Also check the neighbours for such risks. Balcony sliders will, so there needs to be some form of protection here or plan.

Terracotta roof tiles look good but they can fly in modest storms. I like the commonly used detail here with the concrete sloping roof being layered  create a panel effect and then waterproofed with a high quality reflective paint. But most concrete roofing here is flat with a perimeter block band and drains dropping down to ground level from withing the roof area. I don't like this concept for tropical stroms with massive rainfall amounts preferring direct discharge to avoid any ponding.

In any case there is a chance that in a bad storm, some water will get into the property so you must plan to get stuff off the floor and covered from any leaks.

Wind shouldn't be the big worry for the person imo with masonry/concrete construction other than the howling wind which is disconserting. But it will knock out power and comms.   Private power companies in the East Coast and Bayahibe will probably have you back on line quickest. For wi fi/comms this could be a problem in DR.

You mentioned earthquakes. A propery built after 2012 should have been constructed to the new building design codes for earthquakes which were strengthened after the lessons of the Haiti quake of 2010.

A personal opinion is that apartment blocks, especially the larger ones, will multiply any impacts from both tropical storms and earthquakes having both private and shared parts plus common facilities. A villa might be a good choice imo.

Working with loss adjusters after major hurricanes and being a construction professional is an eye opener!

There is a tropical wave approaching the Leeward Islands - the second shown by the NHC in it's 11am bulletin today - which needs monitoring by all in DR.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin … mp;fdays=5

It is forecast by one of the leading models(GFS) to become a strong tropical storm/Cat 1 hurricane as it approaches the south of DR this coming Sunday - the latest run shows very near SD and Barahona Peninsula.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi … 2&fh=6

Click to see the model run as it develops and moves towards us. 980mb is a guide for Cat 1.

Models predict and without the storm having formed are only indicators but it does look like a wet and windy Sunday is in store for us especially in the south.

Always worth keeping an eye on.   Even when we think they wont come anywhere near us its best to stay updated.

Here is a site I like to  use:  https://spaghettimodels.com/

OH NO! we are arriving Saturday night to SD. :o Well, that is if they don't cancel the flight
Let's just pray it doesn't develop too much.

Its not likely to develop enough to really effect things.   Keep an eye on it and the airline will keep you safe one way or the other.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5 shtml/205228.shtml?cone#contents

NHC has issued potential tropica cyclone 5 update just now with projected track and cone as above link.

Saturday pm centre track just south of us. Prepare.

It looks very well organized from satellite images this afternoon and the models have been converging predicting a storm. Needs watching carefully.

Your link isn't working honey. 

This storm is wedged between two areas of dust, hopefully this keeps the intensity down.  Models show a pretty wide potential path still.  Let's see where it goes and how it continues to develop.

Everyone should have what is needed in their houses and businesses in case of storm!  Make sure to familiarize yourself with everything you may need and get it handled ahead of time.

Dominicans are notorious for thinking it will never effect them until it's too late.

[img]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind png/210550_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png[/img]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 43.7W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Lucia.

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system.  Warnings and
additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
9.6 North, longitude 43.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple
of days.  On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday
across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including
Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The NHC link doesn't copy in full.

Just go to the main site and you can see the track and details.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

double post

I have a feeling this is going to be a long hurricane season!  I hope the feeling is wrong!

Tropical Storm Elsa has formed and will probably track just south of DR coming closest to the Barahona peninsula (which is in the small cone) on Saturday afternoon when it could be a strong tropical storm and close to Cat 1 strength. The centre was fixed south of earlier estimates and that has favoured us with a more southerly track.

Might be a bit early -
some reports indicate well south of us

I am following the National Hurricane Centre track, cone and advisories and suggest everybody else checks what they say and advise.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Currently the Barahona peninsula which is part of DR is in the cone and whilst the current track may be well south of the East Coast, folks in the south west should be watching each NHS bulletin. It also still could change.

We can all listen to weather hams but NHC is the gospel using data from multiple and unique sources. They predicted the high probability of Elsa 3 days ago when others were fumbling and that caught my attention.

We now have Hurricane Elsa approaching Barbados and to move into the Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone
is now a hurricane.  A special advisory will be issued within the
hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane
Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of
74 mph and a gust to 86 mph. 



We have tropical storm warnings posed for all along the south coast in place for DR.

The track of the hurricane remains uncertain becuase the major models differ. The GFS and UKMET take the storm just south of DR. The Euro shows the storm crossing the south western part of DR. This mornings NHC track shows the storm passing the tip of the Barahona peninsula - NHC state that they have lesser confidence in the Euro track and so their track is edged south - but the Euro has been the most reliable model in years past.

[img]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind png/085943.png[/img]

We will know better the track later today but that gives one little time to prepare.

Either way a stormy, wet and windy saturday is on the cards for the central and south areas.

NHC:

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected
elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours. 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning
in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible
over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday
. Tropical storm
conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

Thanks for the heads up!  We are lucky to have you.

I am relaying information/advice provided by the National Hurricane Centre and the models they use as part of their evaluation of the tropical disturbances.

We have just had the 11am update and of note is that a 'hurricane watch' is now in place from Punta Palenque just west of San Cristobal to the Haitian border. The 'tropical storm watch' continues all along the south coast.

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Elsa has become better organized,
and radar data from Barbados and Martinique have shown attempts at
eye formation.  The formative northern eyewall passed over Barbados
near 11-12Z, and hurricane-force winds were reported there at that
time. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on those data. It
should be noted that reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft suggest that the circulation is not well-developed
at 700 mb, possible due to the rapid forward speed.

The initial motion is 290/25.  There is little change to the
forecast track or the forecast guidance since the last advisory. 
The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward
notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 36 hr.

The intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening during
the next 36 h as Elsa moves through an environment of light
westerly shear.  After that, land interaction, along with less
favorable upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, is likely to
cause weakening.  The new NHC intensity forecast shows major
adjustments from the previous forecasts based primarily on the
initial intensity.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.  Given the
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area
in the Windward Islands for the next few hours.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in other portions of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane
Warning area in Haiti on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected with hurricane conditions possible along the southern
coast of the Dominican Republic and in Jamaica.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Just to add the windfield extends to the north side of Elsa curently for about 200km.

For those on the north and north east coasts and maybe the east coast this could be a non event. But for Santo Domingo and west and inland in the mountains to the south and west this could prove to be very wet with flooding and strong gusts for a short period being the storm is moving so fast.

Here in Santo Domingo we are taking this seriously.

If there is a plus to this -
It's the fast movement

Remember our year of 2 storms....
One fast-one slow..... fast is better

Fast was 8 hrs (I think)... the slow was 18 hours

The tropical wave that passed through quickly yesterday swamped us inland and there were some very strong gusts which knocked the power out overnight and it came back briefly this morning but is out again. Had to put the small emergency generator in play briefly.

Power outages are an uncomfortable common impact of tropical weather systems here in DR.

Im expecting more tomorrow despite being well inland due to the effect of the mountains to the west.

Yes  fast moving is better.  This storm upgraded to a hurricane way before it was expected. Thank goodness its still move fairly fast! 

WE are still expecting a LOT of rain and wind!

There is a small expat community who live in the area between La Cienega, Paraiso, Los Patos and Enrequillo and being close on the north edge of the projected route of Elsa may well face significant impacts with the mountains behind. Hoping for the best for them.

And Haiti especially the capital does not need Elsa to add to its current problems.

I agree,  I feel for Haiti and all their people!

NHC 2pm advisory and latest Euro run seems to solidifying the forecast track to pass just south of the tip of the Barahona peninsula as a hurricane.

The sustained wind speed has been upped to 85mph. How much more this strengthens if at all is the unkown. But hurricane hunters have been in the storm recently and appear to find the centres well stacked with little shear which is surprising considering the forward speed. The wind field to the north and north west was found to be large with strong winds found 200km from the centre at flight level. If it stays that way large parts of the south of DR could experience strong winds for several hours.

Step up your precautions rapidly if you live along the southern coast and more so from the capital west which is under hurricane warning and you need to take that very seriously.

Places like SPM, La Romana and to the east will be maybe 250km or a bit more from the centre so impacts should be less but you are under tropical storm warning so be prepared.

Check in at the NHC site as link given before for updates every 3 hours... 5pm...8pm...11pm and so on

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5UIE1lVUAseD-E?format=png&name=900x900
This is the flight path of the hurricane hunter in Elsa a couple of hours ago to which I refereed in the above post.

The 993 is the storm centre found and the lines of latitude and longditude are at 50kms spacings.

So you can see that 'purple' winds (64 to 83 knots) were found at 160/170km north of the centre for over 200kms of flight.

Hurricane force winds were found by the HH in that location well north of the storm track centre for a large distance and with Elsa travelling at 30mph it would take 4 hours to clear them as I read it. I hope I am wrong but this could be bad news for people living west of Santo Domingo and justifies the hurricane warnings given west of Punta Palenque.

NHC confirm sustained hurricane force winds extend out 35km only at ground level to northern quadrants. Tropical storm force winds 220km. The previous graphic was flight level winds indicating quite strong sustained TS winds at ground level with stronger gusts well north of the centre. Aplogies for any misinterpretation of raw data.

That said it could be very gusty on south and western coasts. 45mph sustained with stronger gusts does cause damage.

Current conditions in Santo Domingo - dead quiet, no rain, no breeze, no noise at all.

We are under code red conditions which means stay home unless you are essential services. 

I expect this will start to change soon as the outer bands start arriving.

CNN weather, shows the path of Hurricane Elsa. Now Elsa  will pass south of DR.  So I think its going to be ok, but Cuba is going to get it head on.

The eye might move south of the DR, but the south and west parts of the island are still well within the area impacted by rain, high winds and storm surge.

Elsa has been downgraded to a tropical storm from earlier today and has displaced low level and upper level centres due to shear. The low level centre is south of Haiti right now yet the upper level centre, around which there is a lot of convection, is just arriving 50km south of the tip of the Barahona peninsula.

Apparently the sustained tropical storm force windfield starts west of the capital and takes in the coastal parts of San Cristobal, Peravia, Azua, Barahona, Baoruco provinces and a bit inland in the south west. The worst should be in the south west and reports of winds blowing over trees are coming in from Barahona province. There may be worse news to come.

There will probably be blustery wet weather all around the rest of the country for the rest of the day with areas of damage from gusts and rain. It is quite blustery and very humid here in the north of Monte Plata province but no rain yet.

Yet again DR has dodged a direct hit.

Zona Colonial is getting wet and windy

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca … spana.html

Right now more serious wind gusts here in the capital and rains off and on. 

Yes, we again dodged the worst of this!

Let's see how bad it gets in the west of the country and Haiti!