BRAZILIAN REAL TO US DOLLAR

I broke my crystal ball when I moved here years ago.
Who can you believe? If you have a trusted advisor, have s/he talk with commodities/research dept.
What happens if the US or BR has debt, economic. or some world analyst saying this and that and news[a[ers report such.
In 9 years here I have seen 3.40 to 5.61+. Seems like always fighting inflation/deflation. Look at other S.A, countries struggling with economies.
One of the biggest purchase is real property in Brazil or anywhere. In Brazil, you have a few hoops to jump through. Must have an investor visa, permanent residency, or another type of immigration way in order to own real property, and other legal/tax issues you may not have in your home country.

If you're looking for a permanent residence,  thinking in strictly BRL terms is good for your sanity.  That way, the criteria become basically what I imagine they are in Canada:  location, location, location, plus security, quality of construction, and amenities.  The huge advantage of home ownership over renting in Brazil is living in a place you love that you can decorate as you please with your housing cost remaining stable or drops, while renters' costs rise annually and they have to obey whatever arbitrary rules the owner sets.  We bought in 2018, and while we've seen appreciation in BRL terms and expect more, I also expect a net currency loss in USD terms when we finally sell, 3-5 years from now.  It will have been worth it to us, in terms of our priorities.

If you're thinking in terms of investment property,  I can't help much.  I am a student of Brazilian history, though,  and I can't quote you a single period of a year or more since the Great Depression  (and actually farther back, but you catch my drift) when the Brazilian currency of the day wasn't depreciating against the USD, or at best temporarily holding its own.  Factoring the depreciation of the BRL over the last nine years as described above into your calculations would not be too conservative at all.

Hi- Is an investor visa and residency necessary for a non rural residence? From what Ive been reading it just says CPF and my passport for just a regular apartment. I'm trying to figure out which is the most current

You only need:
CPF
Sworn Translation of passport
Registration at the National Public Registry of Deeds and Documents.

Now think about taxes, fees, and transfer of money, When I first bought I could not find a clearing bank, so had to get an agent and lawyer to handle the documents, taxes, fees, and registration.
I could not open a bank account until I had the CRNM. So buy items for the property, had to wait.
It all depends on the location and why you want to buy. I know some are losing value in the NE, but some in SE making a good choice.
Here, I will probably break even,
Just because you own property does not mean you become a permanent resident ( which took 7 months and why I had it in my wife's name until I was a resident. My 2nd round of taxes came due the month I was issued my CRMN.

Need to state again it was pre-2017 immigration
laws, so I am no expert

If you are purchasing urban property., having a Tax ID ( CPF ), and banking account will suffice. 

You might need a bilingual attorney to convey you the status on transfer of deed documents, as a pro forma.   

And granted you covered all the basis on the title search process, liens, zoning, building codes, incumberances, cost of ownership, median prices on your sought location, you should be granted title of deed once all stages are completed.

Sea shore and rural properties, you can also purchase as well, but there are extra steps to ensure you are not to purchase land without a legitimate title.  There are a lot of scams on resort based and rural based properties.   Buyer beware.

The problem is that it is not an easy thing to get a Brazilian bank account without a residence visa.. I heard that Bradesco is probably the only bank account that will allow a foreigner to open an account without this visa

I can vouch for Bradesco .  I have them.

My long term speculation is that the Real is going to strengthen steadily against the dollar, starting with last week when the US dollar index apparently peaked.

One of the important factors to watch is the efforts being put in by the BRIC nations to create a platform for trading and forex exchanges which does NOT use the US dollar as an intermediary. Such a system may start to exist long before the news media announce its existence. There certainly is huge motivation for the participants to do the leg work to make it happen.

Monday i did a large transfer from USA to Brazil via bank-to-bank wire. The published median exchange rate then was 1:5.38. The bank took its pound of flesh and gave me 1:5.20.

Today I did a sizeable purchase using my USA-based Visa card. The published median exchange rate has already shifted to 1:5.18, meaning that the Real has strengthened. There were quite a few waves set off by Powell's speech on Tuesday, note that the spot price of gold has since climbed by over $70. Anyway, the exact price of my purchase was R $8.900.  I checked my bank statement tonight to find that Visa has charged me US $1716.10. My handy dandy calculator says that 8.900 / 5.18 gives 1718 and some change ....meaning that Visa has charged me nothing and in fact donated almost $2.00 for my trouble.

That is something to remember.....

I already said this on another topic but I will say it here too ..... I am expecting that the world will see 1 US Dollar to 2 BRL before it ever sees 1:6......nothing is a sure thing in this business but that's just what I think......the sooner I get more of my money across the happier I will be .....

12/01/22  @inubia.  Interesting speculation.  I don't see enough strength in the Brazilian economy relative to the US economy to even maintain the current exchange rate, much less appreciate, although the Real has defied gravity so far this year and the economy should improve under Lula, so I wouldn't discount what you're saying.  Black Swans always look impossible -- until they're in the rearview, where they suddenly look inevitable. 

I am biased for sure .....but my opinion is based more upon weakness in the USA  rather than strength in Brazil ....this is not a good place to debate this in detail ...

there are all kinds of speculation on the subject.  Which is the realm of the currency trading market. 

There is one thing that became obvious when Biden congratulated the newly elected president, and would cut relations with the incumbent, if , according to him, elections were to be "unfair".

The later sanctioned trading with countries whereupon the US imposed trade embargo. Namely Russian, Iran, and some tariffs went up and remained as so with China.  All of the above were countries where Brazil was still making shipments of beef, poultry, pork, soybeans, and buying the surplus potash plus some oil, and all of those Made in China manufactured goodies.

BRICS going rogue on creating a side deal for payment settlement did not sit too well with the Federal Reserve board members, you can bet your bottom dollar on it. 

They want the Dollar as a medium of exchange, which what makes America Great. So my guess is, Biden and the powers to be said to the newly elected ( only if I was the fly on the wall to listen to this , which I am not ),....

We don't care about your social politics...

Just don't go Venezuela and make sure you stay on the dollar.  If so, you will be fine. 

WE don't know what will come out of this, but i am bullish on the exiting incumbent having gone sour with the folks in VA. 

That's my two cents. 

With the drought up the border, it can work for us , for as long as the Dollar goes strong. 

@sprealestatebroker I would imagine the good old US will do whatever is necessary to keep the petrodollar king.

@KenAquarius

Same as it was with the British Pound up until they lost the Suez Canal. 

The French also have a side deal with their former African Colonies. They granted independence to all of their former colonies without putting up any fight, but left the CFA franc as the Colonies sole trading currency, and all to be deposited in the French Banking System.

Every time a key public figure on those former Colonies  proposes to undo this system, they will find him dead not long afterwards.  Even Jacques Chirac and François Mitterrand public admitted, at their time, that without Africa, France would be a third world country. They still have Brazil to invest, but Africa is their source of free money.

US Free trade was granted way back from Bretton Woods, after WWII, at that time, the condition being the US would dictate the world order and all of participating countries  on WTO supported the US against the Red Evil. 

And the mask came off with Nixon, no longer having to provide gold parity. No more the prop of a Fort Knox

Foreign trade only contributes about 10% of the US GDP. Japan, Germany, China, Italy, Netherlands all by far surpass that ratio of participation.

The strenght of the US financial markets is not weighed on the US being a Merchantile Nation ( which the Dutch are ). It's all based on availability of  "free money" ( Low interest rates, Sovereign Bonds, etc ).

You will see that to suddenly change now, as the Baby Boomers are cashing out, and their Present Value bill on entitlements for the next 30 years is estimated to be about over USD 100 Trillion.  And then you have the US denominated Debt ( about 30 Trillion, ), State and Municipality Debts ( State of Illinois is broke ). The Dollar has to be the currency of trade, or no money for programs, entitlements,, Defense.

The King is naked, but no one stands to notice it.  Long live the king.

12/07/22 BRICS going rogue on creating a side deal for payment settlement did not sit too well with the Federal Reserve board members, you can bet your bottom dollar on it.

-@sprealestatebroker

The Dollar will only be in trouble when there's a viable alterative, and I don't see one, especially with the US economy at full employment. I imagine that Jerome Powell loses more sleep worrying about a second collision with an extinction-event asteroid than he does with a BRICs-based threat to the Dollar:

B -- Brazil, a solid middle income country with a lot of challenges, as we all know;

R -- Russia, a country that formerly had an economy the size of Italy, currently advancing in the process of losing the first war of aggression in Europe since 1945, under crushing sanctions that will only grow;

I -- India, unbreathable air, stagnant economy, a growing, self-inflicted authoritarianism problem with government induced religious hostility and unrest on the side;

C-- China, a huge but stagnant economy caught in a middle-income trap of its own making through a self-induced demographic disaster, a covid management disaster that's becoming too big to hide, a manipulated and unconvertible currency, and an atavistic autocrat who can't seem decide whether he wants to be another Mao Zedong or another Deng Xiaoping.

S -- South Africa, a pygmy economy with some gold and diamond mines and legendary corruption, added to the group for political reasons.

I'm not seeing the world's next reserve currency emerging from that dog's dinner.

It's a Pipe Dream for the BRICS.  It Ain't happening any soon. 

True is, the Dollar has been debased internally, through FED policies ( read inflation ), but outside the US is a different reality.  it is still hot commodity.

There is a reason why the DOD carries an annual budget of USD 850 billion. To enforce the dollar, and it is bankrolled largely by debt issuance, bought by institutional investors, retail investors, and sovereign purchases. 

It never ends well for those who want to curtail the Dollar denominated oil exchange. Look what came to happen to Libya, Venezuela, iran.

The recent expanse of the US monetary base would be unfatomable for any other Country, they would've gone broke or in an never ending recession ( see Japan ), or have a triple digit annual inflation ( as it happened to Brazil, Bolivia, through the 80's ).

The only true concern Americans have right now are unfunded liabilities ( Social Security, Medicare ). You also have a massive retirement outflux, and those retirees are cashing out, so that cheap money for Wall Street to play with, it will be gone.

There is a reason they are going around and saying, Social Security is mismanaged, bla, bla, bla.  Wall Street raided Pension Funds, your Baby Boomers are bailing out, and the last pile standing is Social Security Money. 

It's a Siren song, and they are full of it.

Now, I wonder if the SS chest is loaded with IOUs from the Treasury , Bonds, T-Bills and such.  That would be a huge concern .