The Future: Life in the era of pandemics.

New Zealand & Australia have quarantine orders in place for 14 days on all arrivals, whether citizens or visitors.

And from what I’ve read ,that will stay in place indefinitely until a successful vaccine is developed .     Similar here in Vietnam,  a recent article stated the 14 days quarantine will be around for 12 months.

Can’t see anyone wanting to take a “holiday” anytime soon.   Even the business trips will become Skype meetings & documentation can be scanned & sent.  It’s only paper after all.

Those 4&5 star hotels make their most of the money from business travellers pissing shareholders money up the wall.  Same with the business class & first class airline seating.   

It’s going to be a whole new ball game.      I wonder who will be the first country to “fold” and let the mass market Chinese tour groups back in.?

Would you believe Bali wanted them back next week..😀. That was until their tourism minister was shot down in flames.    But sooner or later the financial pressure will tell on some countries in the region.

There's a lot of anger towards China for many reasons. The only ones putting pressure is China. I get several emails a day begging me to come there to work. Europe and Australia have reported that China has tried to influence recent decisions. Vietnam is PO'd about their activity in VN territorial waters. Many countries have buyers remorse over the belt and road scam.

Chinese nationals are being assailed in many countries. Companies are leaving China for safer, more reliable countries. Their policies of stealing technology are being brought out into the light and pressure applied.

Xi has been a disaster. The Chinese people are outraged over the parties handling of the pandemic. The very policies they use to keep an entire country prisoner are responsible for a world wide pandemic.

There will be a price to pay. Trump may be wholly unfit to run a 7/11 but nobody debates his opinion on China. It's his thorough lack of understanding of why and how to involve allies that is problematic.

Tourism does not drive the world's economy. VN's economy is on pace to grow this year despite Covid.

Tourism is pretty much dead for the foreseeable future especially for people from China. Two pandemics in 12 years? Lying about them both times? Nobody is crying about their tourists. The global economy and supply chain is itself being questioned. China can't even manage to deliver functional face masks and q-tips for sakes. Their 5-G is being rejected as stolen goods used to spy on other countries. Their economy is in a shambles.

Shall I go on?

When China officially became the world's second largest economy it was because they passed Germany. The EU and Euro economic zone as a whole were 10 times larger than that as was the USA's. They're just a market to exploit but they have play by the rules to get that benefit.

Chinese propaganda backed by bullying of their much smaller neighbours is still just propaganda. They are a spit in the ocean building wealth by selling cheap crap to western countries. Turn off that tap and they are just a developing country with a petty dictatorship, poor infrastructure, widespread poverty and a pollution problem that is killing their own people and re-igniting an ozone problem thought cured decades ago.

Want more?

I can link all this stuff to reputable news reports.

VietCanada wrote:

Turn off that tap and they are just a developing country with a petty dictatorship, poor infrastructure, widespread poverty and a pollution problem that is killing their own people and re-igniting an ozone problem thought cured decades ago.

Worldwide air pollution is reportedly getting better, perhaps the only tiny bit of silver lining in the COVID-19 cloud.

Ontheroad57 wrote:

Would you believe Bali wanted them back next week..😀. That was until their tourism minister was shot down in flames.

Yes, Bali is a *** ruined by unfettered development worse than Thailand.

VietCanada

Whilst I may agree or disagree on some of the points you raise about China I think your comments are a little over the top. I am no fan of China but to blame them for the worlds problems is drastically simplifying a far more complex global picture. No industrialised country is blameless. Canada for instance leads the world in producing more solid waste per capita than any other country in the world much of which it has been dumping in Asia for years. Canada also imported 75 billion Canadian dollars worth of Chinese goods last year so whatever you say about the quality of the products Canadians still bought them.
I have no doubt that it is possible to examine any country and pull it apart in terms of its dubious actions/policies albeit some worse than others so pointing to any one of them as the major perpetrator depends entirely on what you want to focus on.
As for the current virus very few countries have handled it very well and pandemics can originate from almost anywhere and have done in the past going back centuries. The introduction of Smallpox into America by the Europeans caused more devastation to the native Indian population than the entire American army could manage and so on. In the current crisis I doubt many countries have been entirely honest about the extent of the contagion/death rate etc. Vietnam has, for now at least, handled the situation far better than many other countries and should be congratulated on it and this despite having a poor health infrastructure. I just hope they do not relax too many restrictions too soon.

As one who's business is sourcing manufacturing in Vietnam and selling it to the US I've been plenty busy with people wanting to move manufacturing away from China.  I'm happy to assist.  People thought China was cheap.  I can put 25% markup on everything at a minimum, all the way up to 100% markup and everyone tells my how great my prices are.

To the thread title, I'm glad where post-pandemic life is going.

Indices wrote:

VietCanada

I think your comments are a little over the top. I am no fan of China but to blame them for the worlds problems.

Over the top?
Possibly, I'm not a very good writer.

I'm not trying to blame China for the world's problems.
I am certainly not trying to promote Canada in any way, shape or form.

I am definitely trying to inject some perspective on the POV that China is the solution to anything.
They are the cause of many international problems of the day.

SteinNebraska wrote:

As one who's business is sourcing manufacturing in Vietnam and selling it to the US I've been plenty busy with people wanting to move manufacturing away from China.  I'm happy to assist.  People thought China was cheap.  I can put 25% markup on everything at a minimum, all the way up to 100% markup and everyone tells my how great my prices are.

To the thread title, I'm glad where post-pandemic life is going.

WOW I am in shock, What about all the people through no fault of their own are thrown on the unemployment lines & some of them could quite possibly never work again? What about all the small businesses that through no fault of their own will never get back on their feet again? What about all the future pensioners that will see their retirement plans decimated for years to come because their pension plans depend on dividends from what were very good Blue Chip companies until this mess hit them? What about the hikes in taxes that's coming for sure to pay for all the bail out money that's been printed?

China has a lot to answer for here & when the dust settles I for one hope the US & the West take them to task for devastation they have caused the whole world.

Funny how lightly they have got off compared with what they unleashed on the whole world....China 4,633 dead rest of the World 215,000!!

VietCanada wrote:

Indices wrote:

VietCanada

I think your comments are a little over the top. I am no fan of China but to blame them for the worlds problems.

Over the top?
Possibly, I'm not a very good writer.

I'm not trying to blame China for the world's problems.
I am certainly not trying to promote Canada in any way, shape or form.

I am definitely trying to inject some perspective on the POV that China is the solution to anything.
They are the cause of many international problems of the day.

As I said, I am no fan of China.
However there are many nations at fault for a whole variety of reasons.
All will take the honey when they can with no thought about who may get stung in the aftermath. Whether China caused the virus outbreak or not they are certainly not responsible for the incompetent way many other nations have handled it.

Indices wrote:

As I said, I am no fan of China.
However there are many nations at fault for a whole variety of reasons.
All will take the honey when they can with no thought about who may get stung in the aftermath. Whether China caused the virus outbreak or not they are certainly not responsible for the incompetent way many other nations have handled it.

At fault for what?

Many nations were blindsided by misinformation from the WHO who based that info on data from China.

This is the second time a pandemic has started in China and they initially lied about it causing much suffering in the world that relies on the WHO.

Claiming other nations were incompetent is factually false.

The difference between countries like New Zealand and Italy is how much they relied on the WHO for data.

Here is an in-depth article from CTV news, a Canadian TV network.

Breaking down the COVID-19 numbers: Should we be comparing countries?

This should put to rest any disinformation that individual countries are to blame.

These facts are indisputable:
The virus started in China.
China lied about it and hid it.
The WHO gave out bad advice based on China's info to the WHO.

Examples of bad advice:
masks don't work
don't close your borders
not sure if it is infectious

Countries that ignored this advice based on the last pandemic from China have been the most successful at getting things under control.

Lately China has been exporting faulty PPE and tests. By the millions!

Here's a video I posted in another thread. I should have posted it here.

Wisecrack is a You Tube channel.

"Description
Wisecrack is a collective of academics, filmmakers, artists, and pop culture junkies who are curious and contemplative about the world around us. Our channel explores big ideas like philosophy and critical thinking through the lens of movies, TV shows, video games, current events, books, and more."

This is a video about how pandemics have shaped modern society and how we govern ourselves. Some of it is quite eerie in it's similarity to today.

At 1:26 there is an ad. Go to 2;26 to skip it.

How Pandemics Change Society – Wisecrack Edition

VietCanada

"Lately China has been exporting faulty PPE and tests. By the millions!"
"The difference between countries like New Zealand and Italy is how much they relied on the WHO for data "
"Claiming other nations were incompetent is factually false."

Sorry, I disagree with your 3 claims above.
You are way over simplifying a series of more complex reasons. Will not waste time further on this as there is obviously no point.
Have a good evening.

Here's another wisecrack video. It's about after the virus, impacts of the virus and events before the virus. It's about manufacturing.

There's A Crisis That Is Quietly Creating New Economic Superpowers...

Vietnam features prominently.

There are actually quite a few good videos about current trends and how the virus might be accelerating world wide changes.

Here's another one about trade:

Canada is Quietly Building The Trading Empire Of The World

I'm watching it now.

Other recent Wisecrack videos that look interesting (no links).

The Worst Economic Collapse In History Is Starting Now: Be Prepared

Covid-19: Why is America’s death toll so high? | The Economist

There's A Battle Going On Between The Economic Superpowers Of The World

SteinNebraska wrote:

As one who's business is sourcing manufacturing in Vietnam and selling it to the US I've been plenty busy with people wanting to move manufacturing away from China.  I'm happy to assist.  People thought China was cheap.  I can put 25% markup on everything at a minimum, all the way up to 100% markup and everyone tells my how great my prices are.

To the thread title, I'm glad where post-pandemic life is going.

Good to read your experience to balance the opinions in this thread.

goodolboy wrote:

SteinNebraska wrote:

As one who's business is sourcing manufacturing in Vietnam and selling it to the US I've been plenty busy with people wanting to move manufacturing away from China.  I'm happy to assist.  People thought China was cheap.  I can put 25% markup on everything at a minimum, all the way up to 100% markup and everyone tells my how great my prices are.

To the thread title, I'm glad where post-pandemic life is going.

WOW I am in shock, what a self centered & selfish attitude, cant believe anyone would post a statement like that. (F you I'm all right Jack) What about all the people through no fault of their own are thrown on the unemployment lines & some of them could quite possibly never work again? What about all the small businesses that through no fault of their own will never get back on their feet again? What about all the future pensioners that will see their retirement plans decimated for years to come because their pension plans depend on dividends from what were very good Blue Chip companies until this mess hit them? What about the hikes in taxes that's coming for sure to pay for all the bail out money that's been printed?

China has a lot to answer for here & when the dust settles I for one hope the US & the West take them to task for devastation they have caused the whole world.

Funny how lightly they have got off compared with what they unleashed on the whole world....China 4,633 dead rest of the World 215,000!!

The pandemic happened.  Nothing I have done influenced that.  The title was "post-pandemic" and I'm happy people are moving manufacturing from China to Vietnam.  If I can facilitate that, great.  If someone else can, great.  As long as it moves from China.  I agree China unleashed this on the world so anything to punish them is fine by me.  Your bold post is a bit misplaced.  I didn't wish this on anyone.  I am however doing what I can to make the best of it.

Regarding your other posts, believe me, I'm acutely aware of how stocks and pensions have been affected.  If I told anyone how much it impacted me directly they would whine that I'm bragging somehow so I will keep quiet on that front.  There's no bragging in how much money is lost from investments.  And I'm one of those people who actually pay most of the taxes for the 50% that don't so don't get me started on tax increases.  And I don't even get a freebie check like everyone else to pay me back for some of the taxes that I'll surely pay MORE of to help pay back for this free money fiasco.

Big changes often result in opportunities to make money.

Some are exploitative like ads for certificates in online teaching IMHO.

Others are perfectly legitimate like a friend who just emailed me about some idea he has wrt teaching in an online world.

An acquaintance of my wife has gone from desperation to surviving by figuring how out to acquire and import face masks.

Companies moving from China are doing so for the same reason they moved there in the first place, lower labour costs resulting in higher profits and enhanced competitiveness.  This has always been a natural outcome of China's success. Higher wages. It will be for the next country's too. It's up to them what they make of their 15 minutes.

Much like the oil boom. Some countries like Norway saved money and enhanced the lives of their citizens for years to come. Others like Alberta in Canada used it enrich corporations who are now leaving and have nothing to show after years of prosperity.

It seems IMHO that becoming a manufacturing hub and the wealth that that entails is an opportunity to create a strong internal economy. China is wasting it on military spending, enhancing their hold on power and political influence. IMHO

Let's hope VN does it better and smarter.

The future of travel.😳😳

Just read an article that could see the end of hotel Buffets, Mini bars, Room service, pools, gyms, spas , saunas , massage , hair & nail services, to name a few.    Cruise boats......?    The buffet is the main draw card for a lot of people.

Plus guests will be required to supply a recent medical certificate confirming their state of health Re any illnesses & vIrus status.

They’ said hotels will be offering picnic baskets on arrival with breakfast cereal & juice in lieu of the Buffet not being available.


So there goes the 5 star hotel game.   

And flights.....Masks all the way & NO food & drink service on some airlines.

If that’s what coming people may as well get a tent & a supply of canned food & head for the wilderness.

Picnic baskets......😆.    We could see Yogi make a comeback 🐾🐾

Air travel has been in decline for a couple decades. So par for the course.
I never liked buffets. I've been sick from them more than any other cause in my whole life.
But room service?! No way man.
Seriously? That is evil.

For years I travelled to the US on business. Twice a week, about 25 times a year. I'd get to my hotel late. First thing I'd do is order room service. King cut roast beef with a baked potato, butter and sour cream, tasteless green stuff I assumed were chives. Green beans prepared in butter with garlic and almond slices. My mouth waters. The beer I brought with me from the duty free because.. American beer.

In the morning I always went to the coffee shop/restaurant for three eggs, three sausages, three buttermilk pancakes with blueberries, whipped butter and faux maple syrup to slather all over it all.  Breakfast sausage with syrup is surprisingly tasty. And of course hot, black coffee to combat the sugar. LOL

Didn't need to eat until late afternoon.

You can't replace that with a little box of cereal and milk.

What a strange new world we live in with no room service. Tragic.  Now I'm depressed. Thanks a lot Ontheroad57.

VietCanada wrote:

Air travel has been in decline for a couple decades. So par for the course.
I never liked buffets. I've been sick from them more than any other cause in my whole life.
But room service?! No way man.
Seriously? That is evil.

For years I travelled to the US on business. Twice a week, about 25 times a year. I'd get to my hotel late. First thing I'd do is order room service. King cut roast beef with a baked potato, butter and sour cream, green stuff I assumed were chives. Green beans prepared in butter with garlic and almond slices. My mouth waters. The beer I brought with me from the duty free because.. American beer.

In the morning I always went to the coffee shop/restaurant for three eggs, three sausages, three buttermilk pancakes with blueberries, whipped butter and faux maple syrup to slather all over it all.  Breakfast sausage with syrup is surprisingly tasty. And of course hot, black coffee to combat the sugar. LOL

Didn't need to eat until late afternoon.

What a strange new world we live in with no room service. Tragic.  Now I'm depressed. Thanks a lot Ontheroad57.

It's a good thing they aren't testing for cholesterol levels...

OceanBeach92107 wrote:

It's a good thing they aren't testing for cholesterol levels...

That came a few years later. Lipitor.

Gotta live a little while you're young enough to not need a doctor!

Now I have to worry about trans fats and salt. Oh, and sugar.

Hotel services restricted

Oh yeah...
Did I mention you’ll have to make your own bed.

And try getting a hooker on the premises with a Doctors certificate of clean health .

Can you imagine Rock stars checking in & being handed a picnic basket with Corn Flakes & a bottle of water.

VietCanada wrote:

For years I travelled to the US on business. Twice a week, about 25 times a year.

Did we have a little brain freeze here?    Unless your calendar has only 13 weeks.   

THIGV wrote:

VietCanada wrote:

For years I travelled to the US on business. Twice a week, about 25 times a year.

Did we have a little brain freeze here?    Unless your calendar has only 13 weeks.   

Or... 50 times total, not every week

SteinNebraska wrote:

I'm happy people are moving manufacturing from China to Vietnam.

The problem as I understand it is that you need to avoid a race to the bottom.  I have read already of some manufacturing moving from Vietnam to Bangladesh and other places.  How long can we race around the world looking for the next cheap labor pool?  Ultimately this will not end until the world, rather than only countries, hits the "Lewis turning point" where supply of surplus peasant labor reaches equilibrium with manufacturing labor demand.  Vietnam may not be too far from that point.  The problem for the US is that the high school only manufacturing labor in the center of the country feels that they are worth more than their true peers in other countries.  At some point this will come into balance, we just don't know when.

  How about brain cramp? Definitely too early to place the blame on Mr. Beck.




Twice a month.

THIGV wrote:

At some point this will come into balance, we just don't know when.

Yes we do...

Robots. AI. Dystopia. Eloi. Morlocks.

VietCanada wrote:

THIGV wrote:

At some point this will come into balance, we just don't know when.

Yes we do...

Robots. AI. Dystopia. Eloi. Morlocks.

On the other hand, a virus could save us when the aliens invade.

Maybe not.

VietCanada wrote:

Maybe not.

www.youtube.com/embed/AyenRCJ_4Ww

Try again.  I think you may have tried to embed it directly.  I have no idea of how to do that.

Mexico, Brazil, Canada, the US and other countries reported that Chinese agents under the command of embassies and consulates went on a buying spree of PPE in foreign countries in early January. Billions of dollars worth bought and shipped to China. While they hid the problem in Wuhan from the world.

The surplus has been sold back to us for anywhere between  20 to 1000 times the original cost.

This contributed to the world wide shortage of PPE. They have also been sending millions of PPE that are defective. Canada alone had a shipment of 1000,000 defective face masks.

What does this have to do with life after Covid?

These countries are talking about moving manufacturing out of China with incentives to come home. The supply chain of important medical equipment obviously being one such industry getting a lot of attention.

This pandemic could very well lead to a major shift in influence and wealth among east Asian countries. Possibly a global shift in the grand idea of a global economy as countries prepare for the next pandemic even as we fight this one.

Here's a link to a Global TV Network story. Global is the number 3 network in Canada.

United Front groups in Canada helped Beijing stockpile coronavirus safety supplies

VietCanada wrote:

These countries are talking about moving manufacturing out of China with incentives to come home. The supply chain of important medical equipment obviously being one such industry getting a lot of attention.

Mr. Nebraska.  Are you ready? 

WTF is PPE?

EDIT: Never mind... I just read the article in the link to the TV equivalent of Borat's sister.

THIGV wrote:

VietCanada wrote:

These countries are talking about moving manufacturing out of China with incentives to come home. The supply chain of important medical equipment obviously being one such industry getting a lot of attention.

Mr. Nebraska.  Are you ready? 

Yep.  If they want to move it here or to the US I am ready.  We have a large injection molding facility in  Nebraska. I just got word that even in the midst of the pandemic April injection molding sales for our company was an all time high.

For UK citizens.
Have just received confirmation of some allowable exceptions re the reissue requirement for the following.
The LAPL (A) is and the LAPL (H) minimum annual requirement for ICAO may be waved due to Virus restrictions particularly with regards to compliant hours.
They allowed me a 18% reduction for both so if you have been hampered in any way by the Covid issue contact the relevant organisation ( CAA for instance ) and you may be able to avoid the time and expense of a retest. All applications are treated individually with no apparent guidelines but seem to favour experience of 5 yrs+.
I doubt this leniency will be applied for long so PM me if you need more details.

SteinNebraska wrote:

Yep.  If they want to move it here or to the US I am ready.  We have a large injection molding facility in  Nebraska.

Maybe you can be making those face shields in Nebraska.  In Vietnam, textile sewing factories can easily be converted from T-shirts to Tyvek gowns and surgical masks.  There is no reason that Vietnam can't be making high quality respirators.  I am thinking of Omron, a Japanese company that makes top quality blood pressure machines in Vietnam.  There is a lot of opportunity for Vietnam as a nation and plenty of talent available to carry it out, both on the factory floor and in engineering and design.

We are running two molds 24/7 right now for the frames for face shields for one of my customers.  They already have the regulatory hurdles cleared because it was an existing product for them.

We discussed getting into it here.  I have a current supplier that will sell me face shields ready to ship for $1.00.  Less in higher quantities.  I just don't have anyone over in the US to market them well and it's a short window.

SteinNebraska wrote:

I just don't have anyone over in the US to market them well and it's a short window.

Maybe not that short if there is a second wave in the Fall.  If you listen to the epidemiologists instead of the politicians it seems that it will happen no matter what the politicians may be wishing.  I am thinking that this PPE market will be strong for a while.  Even if SARS-CoV-2 is vanquished, it may be that countries have learned a lesson and will want to be stocking up inventory for the next one and forgetting about "just in time" supply methods.

Note to mods:  My reference to politicians was intended to mean generically and worldwide, not only one country or political faction.

This is a pretty long read for a lazy Sunday Morning.

It'd from a website called the Conversation.

"The Conversation is an independent source of news and views, from the academic and research community, delivered direct to the public."

What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures March 30, 2020 6.26am EDT


About the author of this article:

    Simon Mair

Research Fellow in Ecological Economics, Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, University of Surrey

Disclosure statement
Simon Mair receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.