Social Distancing Directive Exension? Probably.

Apparently at least some here want to lift the restrictions and just require masks and encourage hand washing.  Have I misinterpreted what I read here?:
https://www.expat.com/forum/viewtopic.p … =4#4845835

I am posing this question in sincerity as I have concern for in-laws in Vietnam.  The current policy has restricted the virus to one case in my wife's hometown and I would like to have it stay that way.  However if there is one hospitalized person, there may be others.  That's what the terms "community transmission" and "asymptomatic carriers' are about.  The schools have already announced that they will remain closed until next semester so ESL employment is still essentially zero either way.  Why not go for two more weeks?

Here's a link to a ScienceNews article about social distancing and other efforts to get past the current situation.


When will the coronavirus pandemic and social distancing end?


By Jonathan Lambert

March 24, 2020 at 11:28 am


Here are the highlights:


"It will almost certainly take herd immunity to end the pandemic.

Up to two-thirds of a population would need to be infected to reach that threshold.

Letting the virus burn through the population would be the fastest approach.

But….

Social distancing reduces deaths but delays herd immunity.

Social distancing will need to last 1 to 3 months at minimum, potentially longer.

More widespread diagnostic testing could ease the need for extensive social distancing.

A big unknown: Are all these efforts sustainable?"

For Vietnam I do think it is overkill.  262 cases total out of 92,000,000?  This is a case where the cure is worse than the ailment.

I think the article is looking at the whole planet.

Basically with no immunity or anti-virus Covid would potentially infect almost everyone on the planet, spreading like a wildfire, overwhelming health systems and killing millions.

I suppose a single country could successfully contain the virus until it dies out(?)
but without herd control this place would be a tinder box for the foreseeable future.

No new outbreaks, new infections down to a couple a day. Strategies for containment are working well and getting better with practice. Strict border controls. Constant testing at malls, large stores, banks, schools etc. Constant cleaning of everything.

Maybe another week to be on the safe side and things can cautiously start returning to whatever the new normal will be in the age of unbridled wet-markets and open markets.

Let's hope so!

VietCanada wrote:

I suppose a single country could successfully contain the virus until it dies out(?)
but without herd control this place would be a tinder box for the foreseeable future.

Do you mean contain or exclude?  Maybe you mean contain to smaller localities.  The problem with exclusion, which Vietnam seems to be doing quite well, is that if your neighbors have high rates of infection, you can never let up.  The US administration tried exclusion by banning flights from China but another 40,000 people came after the ban.  At any rate, DNA testing of the virus has shown that the US is infected with the European strain. 

You probably can't wall off a country forever (or even until a vaccine is ready) but you can continue with aggressive testing and contact tracing.  It appears that Vietnam has probably not had enough testing (I don't know if limited by financing or lab capabilities,) but as expected, the country has done very well with contact tracing.  I expect that a partial reopening of the economy might entail restarting businesses but with continued strict registrations of people's movements between provinces.  Maybe this is what VietCanada meant by herd control.    Movement control is something the country was already set up for, but had been administering only loosely until the current crisis.  I know that my mother-in-law never told the police when we came for 3-day weekends but such slips in protocol are certainly not being allowed now and probably will not be in the near future.

THIGV wrote:

I know that my mother-in-law never told the police when we came for 3-day weekends but such slips in protocol are certainly not being allowed now and probably will not be in the near future.

Definitely, at least during this climate:  Story

THIGV wrote:

Do you mean contain or exclude?  ... Maybe this is what VietCanada meant by herd control.    .

I mean contain. As in telling people to stay home except for necessities, cancelling public transportation and discouraging or preventing travel or large groups. Contain as in preventing or inhibiting the virus from spreading by containing or confining people to discrete areas. To contain the virus as in preventing it's spread.

We are talking about people not cows so herd control in a post about herd immunity and controlling the spread of the virus more likely refers to control of the spread of the virus through herd immunity rather than referring to people as cows!  back at ya! LOL

Anyway, it is possible though unlikely that herd control won't work if, as the WHO and others are expressing concern about, we don't actually develop an immunity or the immunity we get is dependant on certain conditions.

There is no wrong way to fight this battle yet since we don't fully understand what we're fighting. If herd immunity is not a thing or if the virus is not seasonal then VN's approach has saved a lot of lives.

The worst case scenario is no or limited immunity to a virus that is not seasonal.

The best case scenario is that control measures are effective enough to start getting back to normal in a week or two.

Plan for the worst hope for the best.

VietCanada wrote:

The worst case scenario is no or limited immunity to a virus that is not seasonal.

The best case scenario is that control measures are effective enough to start getting back to normal in a week or two.

Plan for the worst hope for the best.

As my first father-in-law used to say "I like your altitude."

Meanwhile, back in the States...

Ten U.S. states developing 'reopening' plans

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal … SKCN21W1D6

California, Oregon and Washington plus New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are the 10 states.

No dates are mentioned though, of course.

So is Spain I think. I don't know if there are enough people left in Italy to plan a picnic. But I'm sure many governments are feeling pressure to at least announce that they're planning on planning a strategy to end the quarantine. My wife has read somewhere that our quarantine has been extended to the end of April. I haven't bothered to look for confirmation. I'm about Covided out right now. Tell the hand.

This every two week thing is like an infinite bounded space. The closer you get to the end the longer it takes to get there.

I wasn't even going to edit this post but their instead of they're is a battle that must be met.

Should now more tonight or tomorrow but this sounds like a very reasonable response with provinces broken into high risk, risk and low risk categories.  Not a "one size fits all" blanket ban.

https://vnexplorer.net/extended-social- … 23465.html

Based on this I suspect HCMC and Ha Noi and the province outside of Ha Noi that is locked down will extend one, maybe two weeks. 

Hoping that Binh Phuoc will re-open as it is low risk with zero cases.  If they do we are heading home for a couple of weeks.  I have been completely isolated at home for the last two weeks so I don't feel it is a risk to go there and I can show them that I've complied with the online self-reporting on the COVID app.  There is no reason to stay here.  At home we can see family and our daughter who we haven't seen for two months.  Also I can work on the farm.  I have 300 cashew trees to plant before the rainy season plus we are going to remove the black pepper and associated "growing trees" from a 5,000 meter section that doesn't produce well any longer.  It has full underground irrigation.  My brother in law is going to plant vegetables to raise and sell in that section.  He manages and takes care of the farm and he will take the profit off of it.  Since we bought last month the pepper was picked and cashew was already contracted so no income this year.  The vegetable farming will give him some income until next year.

The Vietnamese government has decided to extend the social distancing period in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, and nine other provinces by another week after April 15, labeling these as “high-risk” localities most susceptible to a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak.

Earlier the same day, the National Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control had announced three risk-based categories for cities and provinces in the Southeast Asian country, based on which differently tailored social distancing plans would be implemented from April 16.

According to the COVID-19 committee's categorization, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang are considered “high-risk” localities alongside the nine provinces of Lao Cai, Quang Ninh, Bac Ninh, Ninh Binh, Quang Nam, Binh Thuan, Khanh Hoa, Tay Ninh, and Ha Tinh.

These localities will practice social distancing for another week, until the end of April 22, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said at a meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, “at-risk” localities include the cities of Can Tho and Hai Phong and the provinces of Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ha Nam, Kien Giang, Nam Dinh, Soc Trang, Thai Nguyen, Thua Thien-Hue, Dong Thap, Binh Phuoc, Nghe An, Lang Son, and An Giang.

The remaining 36 provinces in Vietnam are considered “low-risk” localities.

The categorization is based on risk factors including transportation infrastructure, traffic volumes, border length and border crossings, exposure to foreigners, population density, and density of factories and industrial zones.


All localities regardless of their risk category must strictly enforce regulations on wearing face masks in public, avoiding mass gatherings, keeping a distance, and upholding hygienic standards.

Local governments have the authority and responsibility to take additional measures based on their own condition and risk level to make sure both epidemic control and socio-economic development goals are met.

Political, economic and social events are to be held only under absolutely necessary circumstances and must follow established guidelines on health monitoring for safety.

For “at-risk” and “low-risk” localities, some manufacturing and business activities are allowed to resume after April 15 on the condition that epidemiological safety measures are taken.

Indices wrote:

The Vietnamese government has decided to extend the social distancing period in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, and nine other provinces by another week after April 15, labeling these as “high-risk” localities most susceptible to a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak.

Earlier the same day, the National Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control had announced three risk-based categories for cities and provinces in the Southeast Asian country, based on which differently tailored social distancing plans would be implemented from April 16.

According to the COVID-19 committee's categorization, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang are considered “high-risk” localities alongside the nine provinces of Lao Cai, Quang Ninh, Bac Ninh, Ninh Binh, Quang Nam, Binh Thuan, Khanh Hoa, Tay Ninh, and Ha Tinh.

These localities will practice social distancing for another week, until the end of April 22, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said at a meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, “at-risk” localities include the cities of Can Tho and Hai Phong and the provinces of Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ha Nam, Kien Giang, Nam Dinh, Soc Trang, Thai Nguyen, Thua Thien-Hue, Dong Thap, Binh Phuoc, Nghe An, Lang Son, and An Giang.

The remaining 36 provinces in Vietnam are considered “low-risk” localities.

The categorization is based on risk factors including transportation infrastructure, traffic volumes, border length and border crossings, exposure to foreigners, population density, and density of factories and industrial zones.


All localities regardless of their risk category must strictly enforce regulations on wearing face masks in public, avoiding mass gatherings, keeping a distance, and upholding hygienic standards.

Local governments have the authority and responsibility to take additional measures based on their own condition and risk level to make sure both epidemic control and socio-economic development goals are met.

Political, economic and social events are to be held only under absolutely necessary circumstances and must follow established guidelines on health monitoring for safety.

For “at-risk” and “low-risk” localities, some manufacturing and business activities are allowed to resume after April 15 on the condition that epidemiological safety measures are taken.

Thanks very much for the update.

Any reference link available for your copy/paste, please?

OceanBeach92107 wrote:

Thanks very much for the update.

Any reference link available for your copy/paste, please?

https://vietnaminsider.vn/social-distan … -april-22/

I was just coming to paste it but it was already here.

OceanBeach .
"Thanks very much for the update
Any reference link available for your copy/paste, please? "

VGP News then click on Government portal.
Of all the various info sites I have found this one to be the only really reliable one albeit more waffle than info.

Indices wrote:

OceanBeach .
"Thanks very much for the update
Any reference link available for your copy/paste, please? "

VGP News then click on Government portal.
Of all the various info sites I have found this one to be the only really reliable one albeit more waffle than info.

That's good to know, thanks.
***

This link is from DW.com

Deutsch Welle

If you get cable or internet TV here DW is probably one of the channels.
You may have even seen this already on TV.

How and when can coronavirus lockdowns be lifted? | COVID-19 Special

Here's the blurb:

"Europe is in lockdown. Schools, restaurants and factories have all been shuttered for weeks. With the arrival of spring, they've been enjoying what they still can: the sun in the park, fresh air. But many are missing a sense of community. Some countries, like Denmark and Austria are already beginning to loosen the most severe restrictions. Others think it's too early. What do experts say? "

Very informative discussion and Q&A with a virologist about the topic of the day:
WHEN WILL THIS  ^%$%#*@!  $%<)  END?

Edit here's another from CBC.ca:

COVID-19: How many asymptomatic people could be walking around?

To be honest, I'm not sure I'm ready. I was just getting into it.     

Might stay in a couple more days... 

It's great that people in low-risk areas will have the chance to get back to work though. 

johnross23 wrote:

It's great that people in low-risk areas will have the chance to get back to work though. 

We may be 'low-risk', but the People's Committee for Ba Ria-Vung Tau has extended the directive until further notice.

cruisemonkey wrote:

We may be 'low-risk', but the People's Committee for Ba Ria-Vung Tau has extended the directive until further notice.

That makes some sense, even if the local rate of infection is low.  As the Vung Tau-Ba Ria area is a weekend vacation spot and so close to HCMC, there would be a high probability of reinfection from outside if travel restrictions were lifted.  In Hawaii, almost all of the early infections were either tourists or people like tour guides and hotel employees who had high tourist exposure.

The chance for infection or re-infection near here D2, from what i witnessed yesterday is quite high. Shocked at how many people walking around with no mask.

Even some of the security didnt bother... crazy really.

We did make the trip to Bình Phuoc today.  No checkpoints except for one close to hometown well inside of the province and they were all sitting in the tent eating lunch.  Nobody was stopping anyone when we went by.

After we arrived and after lunch when everyone got back to work again my BIL registered me with the police and they asked that my wife and I go to the clinic to get our temps recorded.  That was it for excitement except the nurse went to school with my wife and they hadn't seen each other for 10 years.  Once the masks came off there were hugs all around.

THIGV wrote:

cruisemonkey wrote:

We may be 'low-risk', but the People's Committee for Ba Ria-Vung Tau has extended the directive until further notice.

That makes some sense, even if the local rate of infection is low.

The rate of infection is zero, which is good and bad at the same time.  The residents are overconfident and visitors from Saigon have the attitude that since there's no virus in VT, there's no need to wear masks or follow the social distancing rules. 

It irks me a great deal when we wear mask even at 4:30 AM, respect the 2m distancing, have no more than 2 people in a gathering, and these visitors walk around in group of 7 or 8 with not one mask to be seen between them.

Ciambella wrote:

It irks me a great deal when we wear mask even at 4:30 AM, respect the 2m distancing, have no more than 2 people in a gathering, and these visitors walk around in group of 7 or 8 with not one mask to be seen between them.

So, you wear the mask while sleeping or was this something that occurred in a dream?   

johnross23 wrote:

Ciambella wrote:

It irks me a great deal when we wear mask even at 4:30 AM, respect the 2m distancing, have no more than 2 people in a gathering, and these visitors walk around in group of 7 or 8 with not one mask to be seen between them.

So, you wear the mask while sleeping or was this something that occurred in a dream?   

I can bear witness that my neighbor and her husband have not only been walking at that time of day, but they were awake as well...

johnross23 wrote:

So, you wear the mask while sleeping or was this something that occurred in a dream?   

You know that people swim, walk, bike, jogs, do all kinds of areobic and dancercise at the main beaches even before 4 AM,  don't you?  At 4:30, we're a couple of late birds comparing to many regulars.

A recent study in Santa Clara, CA found very much higher numbers of asymptomatic people. Infected, without being aware of it. Good or bad, it's in the nature of it to have spread to millions in VN alone.

Seasonally, it's time for the virus to say good bye, like its sisters, the seasonal flues.

I hate to say it but there's no scientific evidence that suggests this thing will follow the seasons. There is only hope that it does.

For the time being we have to live with masks, washing hands, social distancing, contact tracing, quarantine and waiting on scientists. Hoping the mutations are relatively benign. That's our life today.

OTOH in all of human history we have never been so well armed to tackle a pandemic.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

My street is behaving as if everything is fine but there are police all over the place on main roads and even parked at the gas station every day lately. I have rarely seen them around here before.

VietCanada wrote:

I hate to say it but there's no scientific evidence that suggests this thing will follow the seasons. There is only hope that it does.

For the time being we have to live with masks, washing hands, social distancing, contact tracing, quarantine and waiting on scientists. Hoping the mutations are relatively benign. That's our life today.

OTOH in all of human history we have never been so well armed to tackle a pandemic.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

My street is behaving as if everything is fine but there are police all over the place on main roads and even parked at the gas station every day lately. I have rarely seen them around here before.

It doesn't fit the criteria for scientific evidence, but the elephant in the room is the story of Vietnam compared to the story of Singapore.

Both are hot.

Both are humid.

Vietnam has been able to control the virus.

Singapore is losing control.

My personal belief is that Vietnam is doing better because the Vietnamese are notorious for not using their air conditioning unless they are dying from the Heat and humidity.

Otherwise they use electric fans.

But according to my nephew down in Singapore, everybody is always inside using air conditioning.

So, it's not going to be just about the seasons, but my guess is that it will be based on our behavior during the season.

If it's hot and moist outside and everybody gets their butts outside, I don't think the outbreaks will be so bad.

But if it's hot and moist outside and everybody's inside with air conditioners,  I think you'll see a big spike.

Again not scientific.

It just makes sense to me

Vietnam lifts social distancing restrictions on aircraft

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/travel/pla … 95256.html

Some extracts:

Vietnamese carriers will be allowed to remove social distancing restrictions on aircraft and limitations on the number of passengers starting Thursday.

The Transport Ministry also approved the Civil Aviation Administration of Vietnam's (CAAV) proposal to lift limitations on flight frequency for carriers. They can increase flights on routes linked to Hanoi, HCMC and Da Nang depending on demand.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The CAAV early this week had proposed that from May 5, the daily frequency of flights on the Hanoi - Ho Chi Minh City route be increased to 52 flights both ways instead of the current 36, and to Da Nang from either city to 20 from 12.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The ministry has also decided to remove social distancing limitations on buses, taxi, trains and ships starting Thursday.

The country recorded no fresh Covid-19 case Wednesday, meaning it remained clear of community transmissions for 20 consecutive days. The Covid-19 tally was 271, with 39 still under treatment.

OceanBeach92107 wrote:

VietCanada wrote:

I hate to say it but there's no scientific evidence that suggests this thing will follow the seasons. There is only hope that it does.

For the time being we have to live with masks, washing hands, social distancing, contact tracing, quarantine and waiting on scientists. Hoping the mutations are relatively benign. That's our life today.

OTOH in all of human history we have never been so well armed to tackle a pandemic.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

My street is behaving as if everything is fine but there are police all over the place on main roads and even parked at the gas station every day lately. I have rarely seen them around here before.

It doesn't fit the criteria for scientific evidence, but the elephant in the room is the story of Vietnam compared to the story of Singapore.

Both are hot.

Both are humid.

Vietnam has been able to control the virus.

Singapore is losing control.

My personal belief is that Vietnam is doing better because the Vietnamese are notorious for not using their air conditioning unless they are dying from the Heat and humidity.

Otherwise they use electric fans.

But according to my nephew down in Singapore, everybody is always inside using air conditioning.

So, it's not going to be just about the seasons, but my guess is that it will be based on our behavior during the season.

If it's hot and moist outside and everybody gets their butts outside, I don't think the outbreaks will be so bad.

But if it's hot and moist outside and everybody's inside with air conditioners,  I think you'll see a big spike.

Again not scientific.

It just makes sense to me

Been lurking on the Vietnam expat forums for a while now. Had no intention to comment, but could not help to say that I'm 100% in agreement with everything in the quotes above, except for the second last sentence. I think Oceanbeach was just too cautious to call his argument science based, but there is scientific evidence that the novel coronavirus does not do well in the high temperature and high humidity enviroments (outside its host's body of course), which clearly implies that it's just harder for the virus to spread in those enviroments as opposed to somewhere cooler and drier. There are anecdotal evidence that most of the worst outbreaks with high fatality rates we've seen so far are from regions with cool temperatures.
On a different note, I'd like to thank all the expats living in Vietnam. Whether you work or are retired there, you guys make Vietnam richer both economically and culturally. Hope you all enjoy your stay in Vietnam!

Apparently schools are being told to turn off the aircons.

This is from VGP news. It's at the end of a report abort not relaxing strict border controls.

Experts said schools should not require students to wear face masks and turn off air conditioners during class time

johnross23 wrote:

Vietnam lifts social distancing restrictions on aircraft

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/travel/pla … 95256.html

Some extracts:

Vietnamese carriers will be allowed to remove social distancing restrictions on aircraft and limitations on the number of passengers starting Thursday.

The Transport Ministry also approved the Civil Aviation Administration of Vietnam's (CAAV) proposal to lift limitations on flight frequency for carriers. They can increase flights on routes linked to Hanoi, HCMC and Da Nang depending on demand.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The CAAV early this week had proposed that from May 5, the daily frequency of flights on the Hanoi - Ho Chi Minh City route be increased to 52 flights both ways instead of the current 36, and to Da Nang from either city to 20 from 12.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The ministry has also decided to remove social distancing limitations on buses, taxi, trains and ships starting Thursday.

The country recorded no fresh Covid-19 case Wednesday, meaning it remained clear of community transmissions for 20 consecutive days. The Covid-19 tally was 271, with 39 still under treatment.

I just wanted to point at that this is for local flights within VN.

From the article:
" international flights and entry of foreigners still suspended" because a lot of people are asking about this.

OceanBeach92107 wrote:

It doesn't fit the criteria for scientific evidence, but the elephant in the room is the story of Vietnam compared to the story of Singapore.

Both are hot.

Both are humid.

Vietnam has been able to control the virus.

Singapore is losing control.

In my thinking, Singapore, while from being much richer, a gazillion times cleaner, and a million times more respectful of the law than Vietnam, unfortunately has one negative thing (in Covid climate) which Vietnam doesn't have: a large population eat with their hands. 

Yes, I understand those people are supposed to wash their hands *throughly* before eating, but that practice doesn't seem to work very well in restaurants.  I've seen uncountable people at uncountable times in Singapore who came to the restaurants, sat down at tables, ordered their meals, pulled up their sleeves, and picked up their food with hands.  There wasn't any sink with soap nearby for them to clean their hands.  And in Singapore, the restaurants' idea of napkins (serviettes in UK speak) is a box of tissues, but not of of them provide that.  Most  Singaporeans carry packets of tissues with them everywhere and use them in lieu of napkins.  At least in Vietnam, there's the wet wipes which restaurants charge between 3k to 5k a piece. 

One of the things we've learned about avoiding Covid virus is keeping our hands away from our faces because virus get into our lungs easier if we don't.  What about picking up food with our hands then putting it in our mouth day after day?

I have no citation right now (maybe later) but I have read that the recent outbreak in Singapore was centered not with the citizenry but with the very poor migrant laborers who perform construction and other manual labor in the city/state.  These people, mostly male, live in crowded dormitory like conditions that are ripe for the virus to spread.

Edit:  This is from NPP which is not governmental but generally a reputable news source:  https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso … l-it-wasnt

From the article: "Meanwhile, the explosion of cases in Singapore over the last three weeks has remained primarily among foreign workers. For example, on May 1 there were 11 new cases reported among Singapore's permanent residents and 905 new infections among the workers residing in the dorms."