Hurricane Season 2020

You beat me to it!  Yes it looks like it could be above average. 

Oh man one thing at a time.please universe!

AccuWeather increases number of hurricanes predicted for 'very active' 2020 Atlantic season

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican … ate/735844

Yes others are revising upwards as well!  This will be an interesting year!

WE can only hope that their predictions are just that - predictions! Wow....

Predictions are pretty good these days. The ocean temperatures are very high and the effects of La Nina make everything look bleak in terms of storms frequency and strength.

I hope we don't get a 2005 season again with a few super storms of the last few years thrown in.

My plan is to be based inland in the centre of the country in up province Monte Plata if this virus ever allows me to complete the work on my property.

DR is overdue a major hurricane direct hit.....Georges in 1998 being the last. It went right through the country so even inland there was damage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Georges

Hurricane season starts 1st June. Just ran the latest GFS weather forecast model and there are some low pressure systems shown developing in the Caribbean basin later this month and that is where you expect the early season storms to begin. One starts in the Pacific where the season has started already and then crosses Panama and moves east and strengthens.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi … 2&fh=6

It will be interesting this year, I agree things are heating up.  May storms are not unusual but its unusual for them to effect us directly.

I plan to stay in Santo Domingo as my businesses are here. We already have a hurricane plan and I will once again  drum that into the heads of my employees - be prepared. We will implement the plan whenever needed!   Its on all of us to be ready as we know we cannot count on the gov't here to assist us. 

Yes sadly, we are overdue for a hit.  If you use statistics to analyse its going to be our turn soon, its just a matter of where!

Any advice Planner for people like us who are stranded and have no experience of hurricans.

Ducketts

Don't worry. You are used to storm force 9 gales and rarely would one experience anything stronger unless you get a straight hit with the eye wall.

The damage to the services and water damage is normally the worst effect one suffers unless it is one of the super storms of the last few years. Added to which POP has avoided a direct major hit for more than 70 years. But so had the Abacos in the Bahamas until Dorian last year.

Don't worry the peak time is late August onward, when the so called Cape Verde storms start from tropical waves coming off Africa and head our way building up steam, and you should be home by then.

Those of us who live permanently in the islands get focused as storms develop and head our way and at some point we find ourselves within the potential hit zone and have to decide how to prepare or run. But the vast majority of times we avoid any issues at all. But now with global warming the super storms are here and a very unpredictable future lies ahead for the island folk and us.

An early start.

TS Arthur?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin … mp;fdays=2  70% chance within 5 days

Both GFS and Euro show this developing as it crosses the Keys and Northern Bahamas and moves up offshore the East Coast.

Actually early start is the new normal. 

From 2015 on our first named storm has happened in May. 

I will find my proaredness documents and post what's relevant.

North coast hystorically had been protected.  And you can thank geography for that, literally.  Again I will find some info that explains it better than I do.  Thank Puerto Rico the the east and our own elevations through the middle of the island for the protection

Thanks for keeping us posted!  So appreciated.  Sending positive thoughts that all will be good in POP.

Puerto Plata has serious issues with flooding whenever a storm gets close. They have flooding issues all year round! 

Rarely are there issues specifically related to Tropical Storms and or Hurricanes.  The north coast had a few close calls over the last  3 or 4 years but historically they are well situated.

More at risk this year will be the South and the East coasts!

What supplies do you need to prepare for a hurricane?

Ahead of potentially devastating storms this hurricane season, the Red Cross recommends having the following supplies on hand:

Water: At least a 7-day supply; one gallon per person per day
Food: At least a 7-day supply of non-perishable, easy-to-prepare food
Flashlight
Battery-powered or hand-crank radio
Extra batteries
First aid kit
Medications (14-day supply) and medical items (hearing aids with extra batteries, glasses, contact lenses, syringes, cane)
Multi-purpose tool
Copies of personal documents in a plastic sealed bag (insurance policies, birth certificates, lease or deed to home)
Sanitation and personal hygiene items(yup toilet paper)
Insect repellent and sunscreens
Baby supplies (bottles, formula, baby food, diapers)
Rain gear

What safety precautions should you take before a hurricane?

If your area is told to evacuate, evacuate - know where you will go ahead of time
Check your disaster supplies and replace or restock as needed
Fill your car's gas tank - very important
FILL your propane cooking gas.
If you have a generator make sure you have fuel.
Turn the refrigerator and freezer in the coldest setting and keep them closed as much as possible so food will last longer if power goes out
Check your inverter batteries and service them
Bring any outdoor furniture inside
BRING all outdoor items inside or tie them down securely.
Close your windows, doors etc
Board up all windows and doors with plywood - if its a big one!

At the very least, have an emergency "go bag" at the ready.

Hurricane safety tips for pets

Make sure that cats and dogs are wearing collars and identification tags that are up to date
Put your cellphone number on your pet's tag
Find a safe place to stay ahead of time
Bring your pet with you if you evacuate
Stock enough food and water for each pet for at least 7 days
Don't forget to bring your pet's medications and a sturdy leash or carrier

As it approaches, double check  everything outside.  Turn off the gas on your propane tank.  Turn off your water pumps.  Assume the electricity will be turned off ahead of the storms.   Conserve your back up power.   Sue candles if possible instead of lights.

Assume everything outside is a projectile. It can bash through windows and do serious damage to property and people.

https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-s … obability/

Looks like its going to be one of the most active. 19 named storms. 3 already and 4 days into the season.

Good evening,

Does the north coast typically fare any better than the south coast or are they about the same during a hurricane?

Thank you,

JR

Don't open that discussion!

The North Coast has not had a direct hit from a hurricane for a very long time but also DR has not had a direct hit for a very long time too.

Tropical storms are steered by climatic conditions elsewhere and whilst the most common course for such storms is east to west and then curving up northerly and east, as was the case of for example Ike and Katrina they got steered west then south west before curving back north and east but after they passed DR! But early and late season storms can develop in the Caribbean and Gulf areas and move east, west, north.

The earlier the storm the more likely is that the latitude is lower and this would make a south and east coast impact more possible, but by peak season the storm track across the Atlantic will be at a higher latitude and the probability of impact would be more south east, east, north east and north but that doesn't rule out the south with a storm like Maria bending up north a few hundred kilometres further east than where it did in Puerto Rico and impacting the whole country south to north as a hurricane. It all depends on the steering atmospheric conditions elsewhere. Georges the last major to hit DR made land fall on the south east coast and tracked across the southern part of the country affecting most parts.

All of DR is vulnerable to tropical storms and anybody that says other wise is misleading you.

Understood and thank you for the long and thoughtful reply.

I had those facts at hand and was just trying to get some sense of how the E-W terrain might affect.

Regards,

JR

jaycreynolds wrote:

Understood and thank you for the long and thoughtful reply.

I had those facts at hand and was just trying to get some sense of how the E-W terrain might affect.

Regards,

JR

It would disrupt a storm for sure, especially the highest terrain which is in the west but the range of hills at the eastern end of the island in the Samana peninsula and along the north coast are relatively low.

It is quite flat terrain for a storm making landfall on the east and moving east until the centre of the country to the north of the capital.

Any storm making landfall in the south and moving northwards would encounter higher ground at some point, but as Maria demonstrated in PR in 2017 a super storm can cross high terrain and still be strong leaving the north of PR. Entering Dr at say La Romana and tracking north west would go over flat terrain for half the journey then low highland similar to PR before exiting on the north.

Steering currents from climatic conditions elsewhere are the key to storm track and strength and with climate change nothing is like it used to be.

It is a function of winds,  currents and geography.  Puerto Rico steers a lot of storms away. Storms from the south can turn early or later.   It is complicated.

In a nutshell Lennox is right.  Tropical storms can cause as much damage and loss of life as hurricanes in this country.

Hurricanes are more likely in the east and south. Tropical storms hit the entire island. 

Best be prepared for all possibilities.

Remember the storm that entered the south east and  stalled over the mountains heading north,  sat there for  like 24 hours and wiped out everything with unbelievable rainfall. I do not remember what year,  maybe  2003 or 2002.

Speed is another consideration - watch the speed

a few yrs ago when we had 2 pass us on the north coast
both were 75-100 miles out at sea

The 1st one passed in 8 hrs - the 2nd was 18.....

watch the speed in your preparations...
many were caught flat footed w/ that 18 hrs ordeal.

We have a storm headed this way.  Looks to impact us however we don't know exactly where or how hard.  First impacts will be felt Thursday morning! 

Don't brush this off - serious rains and flooding are possible on the entire island and are just as dangerous as the winds!   

Be prepared!

So  the current track of our still unnamed storm is  taking it directly  over Santo Domingo  and keep heading west north west from there.

It would be over Santo Domingo  8 am on Thursday. We are feeling winds pick up already.  Rain should start  later tonight! 

Don't be fooled by the fact its not named. IT is carrying tropical storm force winds and a ton of moisture.   It is moving fast and we hope it doesn't stall overtop of this island.   Rain and flooding will be the most serious threats at this point so be prepared.

You should have all your  outside "stuff" tied down or moved inside. Anything that can be picked up and thrown by the wind needs to be inside.   

Expect to lose power and  cable.  If it doesn't happen its a win!

from a respected DR forecaster..........


Source: https://www.facebook.com/groups/4664397 … 6902898385


sorry for my late up date, as i had no internet last evening.
this is most likely my last up date before tonight's Impact.
ATTENTION:
TD9 stayed well south of the former predicted tracking and is in the Eastern Cribbean Sea SE of Puerto Rico.
the Storm's Windfield extends almost 300 miles out to the North and NE of the Center.
All Puerto Rico and All DR will be in this powerful Windfield.
while this is not a Hurricane, it is a super Huge and very Powerful system and will be a Tropical Storm when making it's Landfall in the Dominican Republic later tonight/early Thursday morning, along our DR Southshores.
Interacting with PR first usually takes powers away from Storms, but this one will not make Landfall in PR and should not get bothered that much. PR will be completely in the N/NEern Windfield, but not touch the Center.
we have to be ready COUNTRY WIDE in the DR for over 70mphr Wind Force and torrential rainfalls for very long hours, minimum 10hrs long, but a Storm on landfall can slow down a lot, even get stationary for hours, so this could also last double that time.
do not rely on tracking forecasts for exact landfall location, this can change quick by many miles more East or West along our South Shores, once the system starts touching our high Mountain Ranges.
anyways, the full power winds and rains will most likely be felt/present Everywhere on DR Territory.
this is Not a small Tropical Storm like Jeanne back in 2004, this will be TS Isaias many times the size and powers of Jeanne.
Lock yourself in and stay inside until this all passed completely.
expect widely power outs and/or internet services down, flooded streets and do not expect businesses to be open tomorrow or friday.
Stay Safe Everyone.

Thanks!  That is very helpful and I agree with every word.

TS Isaias

https://youtu.be/2zha7MVhr5k

Interesting overview from last night - stronger winds for north coast!

Always worth looking out for Tropical Tidbits videos by Levi!

Great explanantion and radar from PR is showing exactly what he predicted and so are the latest main models now.

It is fascinating to see that the circulation being so big that the winds will be over warm water and the usual mountain effect could be negated. Expect strong east to west winds along the north shore today with severe gusts. Looks like most of the rain could be offshore too.

This is one very strange storm.  I have watched a lot of them and this one is really different.

In Santo Domingo we had some rain overnight but nothing much and almost no wind from 10 on.  Now it's dead still outside but completely overcast

Looks like the north and east will get this storm.  I hope that the rains are steady but not torrential! 

Stay safe!

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
4m
Tropical Storm #Isaias has gained thunderstorm organization overnight, and has jumped northwestward as expected. The exact center location right now is unclear, but a refocusing near the northern coast of Dominican Republic is possible today.

NHC has found a weak almost non existant centre south east of DR on it's recent HH mission but it appears the centre is relocating to near all the convection near the north east coast of DR now and Levi is confirming that as was predicted in his explanatory video posted above. The southern part is receeding and the northern part growing to put it in simple terms. And the impacts should be more pronounced to the north and north east as well as east right now.....but being so big a wind field it could impact the whole country one way or another.

Strong winds and moderate rain here in Punta Cana.  Sustaining minor damage to trees and gardens so far...

Wind bands and rain in Santo Domingo

Las Terrenas reports intermittent heavy rain and wind of 30+ mph. Nothing horrible.

Wind has picked up in the last hour, but we're hanging in there  :0)   Some tree pieces parts flying around but nothing too drastic.
Dave M reporting from Las Terrenas.....

It looks like the centre is relocating near Samana and will move along north coast.

It is a non event down south thus far.

Weirdest damn storm I have seen in  17 years here!

The storm is rolling along the North Coast now and has just arriving at Cabrera

More imagery seems to confirm that the centre is reforming at or about Cabrera part inland and part offshore and rolling along towards Cabarete and Puerto Plata. This link shows it better:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/08 … d9b790.gif

The worst Is to come for those parts.

Levi predicted this last night in the video I posted! The storm field was so big it wrapped itself either side of the island and the north part took control staying over water.

The tail to the south side will no doubt hit the south at some point later.

that promontory west of Samana is Cabo Frances Viejo

Site of the oldest lighthouse (el Faro) in the New World