Getting clearance from doctor

Haha good one Okieboy..

Did you mean to say the Consulate ?

He was afraid because many Filipino doctors have died of Coronavirus

https://ph.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-k … 00034.html

That article shows three, but I saw more on FB.

And hundreds of other healthcare workers have been infected.

Barangay captain

The numbers are not adding up in the USA they have 100,000 cases most in NYC about 1400 dead but in the 2018-2019 flu season 35 million cases 34,200 dead what happened to the common flu did it go away I see no numbers on those who died from common flu

Okieboy wrote:

Barangay captain

Same Okie, the Barangay Capitan told us both to isolate for 2 weeks after we arrived in Manila and made an escape on the 14th so we weren't stuck there for a month, and yes monitoring but no requests for clearance from a doctor. I suppose we could have shown symptoms and called for help if infected over the 2 weeks isolation.

Cheers, Steve.

Okieboy wrote:

The numbers are not adding up in the USA they have 100,000 cases most in NYC about 1400 dead but in the 2018-2019 flu season 35 million cases 34,200 dead what happened to the common flu did it go away I see no numbers on those who died from common flu

Perhaps the calm before the storm? But what of:

As of 2018 one-quarter of the world's population is thought to be infected with TB.[6] New infections occur in about 1% of the population each year.[12] In 2018, there were more than 10 million cases of active TB which resulted in 1.5 million deaths.[7] This makes it the number one cause of death from an infectious disease.[13] More than 95% of deaths occurred in developing countries, and more than 50% in India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines.[13] The number of new cases each year has decreased since 2000.[1] About 80% of people in many Asian and African countries test positive while 5–10% of people in the United States population test positive by the tuberculin test.[14] Tuberculosis has been present in humans since ancient times.[15]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis

In the mean time we should all listen to government health directives to slow/perhaps reverse our current dilemma until an acceptable cure arrises.

Stay safe all.

Cheers, Steve.

Common flu has a foothold already and its spread is well understood.

Coronavirus is just getting started.

Every time I look at the numbers and the possibilities it is scary.

There are a lot of factors that could make it better or worse. On the good side, it may already be a lot more wide spread than we know which might mean that it is a lot less deadly than it appears to be.

I do not want to think about the worst. At a point if it gets bad enough things compound and mortality starts to increase due to things that are not Coronavirus as first responders begin to be taken out and vital services and production assets start to fail.

I hope things tend toward the better side.

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.

The people sounding alarms about CV19 have access to and understanding of those numbers that goes well beyond most of us.

One number is the R0, which is how transmissible the disease is.

The other is  the mortality rate, which no one can be certain of right now, but the top health officials understand it better than we do.

One set of number than can give you a simplistic idea of what is happening is the number of deaths in the US over the last few days

113, 141, 225, 247, 268, 400

in just five days you have greater than a tripling of the # of deaths per day

if it was to hold steady at 400 a day for a year that makes 146,000 in a year

In a given year about 30,000 die of flu in the US.

see the problem?

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.

The people sounding alarms about CV19 have access to and understanding of those numbers that goes well beyond most of us.

One number is the R0, which is how transmissible the disease is.

The other is  the mortality rate, which no one can be certain of right now, but the top health officials understand it better than we do.

One set of number than can give you a simplistic idea of what is happening is the number of deaths in the US over the last few days

113, 141, 225, 247, 268, 400

in just five days you have greater than a tripling of the # of deaths per day

if it was to hold steady at 400 a day for a year that makes 146,000 in a year

In a given year about 30,000 die of flu in the US.

see the problem?

Proving the old Disraeli idea that there are liars, damn liars, and statistics.

Coronavirus: ‘Nature is sending us a message', says UN environment chief

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua … ment-chief

manwonder wrote:

Coronavirus: ‘Nature is sending us a message', says UN environment chief

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua … ment-chief

Blame global warning for everything.  How about bubonic plague?  What about Spanish flu?   I remember certain evangelicals claiming that 9/11 was God's message that the USA was too liberal allowing same sex marriage, thinking homosexuals should have civil rights etc etc etc.  Evidently most of those people worked in NYC.  Guess the USA did not get the message.  Probably can blame the next disaster on legalized marijuana.  After all wine is mentioned often in the Bible, can change water into wine, can change wine into the blood of Christ.  No evidence of any weed.  Rant over.

mugtech wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.

The people sounding alarms about CV19 have access to and understanding of those numbers that goes well beyond most of us.

One number is the R0, which is how transmissible the disease is.

The other is  the mortality rate, which no one can be certain of right now, but the top health officials understand it better than we do.

One set of number than can give you a simplistic idea of what is happening is the number of deaths in the US over the last few days

113, 141, 225, 247, 268, 400

in just five days you have greater than a tripling of the # of deaths per day

if it was to hold steady at 400 a day for a year that makes 146,000 in a year

In a given year about 30,000 die of flu in the US.

see the problem?

Proving the old Disraeli idea that there are liars, damn liars, and statistics.

On the contrary. It proves not a thing. There is no proof of anything as of yet. Just a lot of dead people and an increasing number of nations in crisis.

We have one extreme who say this is all a hoax.

We have another extreme who say it is the end of the world.

Anyone can make a quip, but can anyone say what is happening or what will happen?

What do the numbers mean?

Disraeli also said that the world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those who are not behind the scenes. I agree.

Maybe Stephen Hawking was right!

Coronavirus may just plateau soon in the US and then recede.

Or it may explode. It may swamp every ICU. No leader wants to be caught on the wrong side of that. There could actually be criminal charges for negligence.

Maybe Malthus was right.

maybe this too was right

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

who knows

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.
What do the numbers mean?

Destiny you bring up an interesting question.

The methods for determining the infection rate is totally inaccurate.

I think the total amount of deaths should be multiplied by "x" factor to determining the amount of the actual infections rate.

Italy reports 124 deaths per million                      (density 201 per sq km)

While China reports less than 3 per million         (density 145 per sq km)

Who is lying here?

China is sending medical staff and medical supplies overseas to help other countries. Hahahahaha . . . . Good or dumb PR?    Trying to deflect world opinion.

Money does buy you a lot these days!

W9XR wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.
What do the numbers mean?

Destiny you bring up an interesting question.

The methods for determining the infection rate is totally inaccurate.

I think the total amount of deaths should be multiplied by "x" factor to determining the amount of the actual infections rate.

Italy reports 124 deaths per million                      (density 201 per sq km)

While China reports less than 3 per million         (density 145 per sq km)

Who is lying here?

China is sending medical staff and medical supplies overseas to help other countries. Hahahahaha . . . . Good or dumb PR?    Trying to deflect world opinion.

They are all lying.

And that should be more concerning than any virus.

I don't want to scare the kids, but

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA_CndlBu0g

There is a lot more going on here than meets they eye.

Lipson used a common example to explain how exponential growth tricks your mind...
Pick which option you think will make you the most money in a month:
$10,000 on every day of the month.
A penny that doubles in value every day.
The correct answer is the penny.
The first option will leave you with about $300,000 in a month. The magic penny will be worth several million dollars.

At first, the process is "deceptively slow," But as the numbers get bigger, they grow so rapidly it's hard for our minds to keep up so is the exponential spread of the virus!

manwonder wrote:

Lipson used a common example to explain how exponential growth tricks your mind...
Pick which option you think will make you the most money in a month:
$10,000 on every day of the month.
A penny that doubles in value every day.
The correct answer is the penny.
The first option will leave you with about $300,000 in a month. The magic penny will be worth several million dollars.

At first, the process is "deceptively slow," But as the numbers get bigger, they grow so rapidly it's hard for our minds to keep up so is the exponential spread of the virus!

people see the small numbers and thing no biggie

not yet

In other news I am looking at reports of restlessness in the states.

It will not be long before the crazies begin to pop.

As or Italy, guess they will be more careful who they hug in the future.

Unfortunately, the death numbers for the USA are not holding at 400 per day.

The total for 3/28 is at 512 right now and the day is not over yet.

Many do not see the urgency because they think statically.

500 people is not a big deal. Flu killed tens of thousands last year and every year.

But the 500 is one day. The flu numbers are for an entire year.

This is growing not static. And as it grows it grows ever faster.

500 a day now and they have adequate care, we assume.

As numbers increase and healthcare workers get sick quality of care fails and more die as  a consequence of that. Collateral death increases. And collateral death reaches into many areas outside of healthcare as this progresses and lingers.

Those whose job is to plan for these types of things think very differently from other people. They can see what things may become and not just how things are. How things are is deceiving. Normalcy bias kills.

W9XR wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

In order to make the numbers add up you have to use all of the numbers.
What do the numbers mean?

Destiny you bring up an interesting question.

The methods for determining the infection rate is totally inaccurate.

I think the total amount of deaths should be multiplied by "x" factor to determining the amount of the actual infections rate.

Italy reports 124 deaths per million                      (density 201 per sq km)

While China reports less than 3 per million         (density 145 per sq km)

Who is lying here?

China is sending medical staff and medical supplies overseas to help other countries. Hahahahaha . . . . Good or dumb PR?    Trying to deflect world opinion.

See how the virus has affected me, I'm replying to my own post.

So many inconsistencies, On the news you see lines a mile long of cars doing drive-in testing. At first they go home and wait for the results, after the test and before they results, they contract the virus.

Now the results can be determined in minutes, do they park and take a number?

The incubation time can be 14 days, so do they get retested every 14 days? Many will, many over and over.

Now lets use the Philippines as an example, most don't have a car, testing of millions & millions would not be possible, I guess there would have to be drive-in stations. Claim martial law & use every Jollibees, hahahahahah, let me see, I'll take one bucket of chicken and a test kit.

Ever been to St. Lukes Hospital? If you were to stand 6 feet apart, there would be room for only one person in an elevator, if the operator would step out.

So how do they determine how many people have the virus here in the Philippines? They can't so they make it up.

They are not making up the numbers in the Philippines. They are underestimating big time because there are limited tests and limited personnel to do testing.

There are accidents. There is chance. But I do not feel that either apply to this global event. If I am correct, then another shoe will drop. Do what you can with the time that you have.

It is so clear to me. And the incredulity of others tells me that I am not alone. Maybe they just need help to get to the answer. Maybe they know and are afraid to say.

An acquaintance of mine who is not well educated said it so plainly that it shocked me. There must be a lot of people who know.

And then there is the fact that the testing kits are unreliable.

what could be so bad that authorities would cover it up with something this bad

I'm not sure if the 'sheep' can handle the truth!

When we look back on this in late April people need to remember that the only reason it was not a lot worse is because of the extreme measure taken. It is expected to peak in the US at that time with daily deaths perhaps over 1000.

That is my normie take on what is happening.

manwonder wrote:

I'm not sure if the 'sheep' can handle the truth!

A young man pointed out to a tree and told his friend he lost his virginity under that tree while her father watched. His friend asked: What did her father say? He replied Baa Baa

Philippine Destiny wrote:

When we look back on this in late April people need to remember that the only reason it was not a lot worse is because of the extreme measure taken. It is expected to peak in the US at that time with daily deaths perhaps over 1000.

That is my normie take on what is happening.

Luis Ostrosky, a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said humans have a “herd immunity” to flu. “When there are enough people in the community who are immune, it protects people who are not immune,” he said. That is the case with flu, but not with COVID-19. Ostrosky said this is especially critical when there are no vaccines or therapeutic treatments for a virus.

manwonder wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

When we look back on this in late April people need to remember that the only reason it was not a lot worse is because of the extreme measure taken. It is expected to peak in the US at that time with daily deaths perhaps over 1000.

That is my normie take on what is happening.

Luis Ostrosky, a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said humans have a “herd immunity” to flu. “When there are enough people in the community who are immune, it protects people who are not immune,” he said. That is the case with flu, but not with COVID-19. Ostrosky said this is especially critical when there are no vaccines or therapeutic treatments for a virus.

Yes. A strain of flu cannot spread among a population that has immunity to that strain. It never gets from a to  c if b is immune.

There is a learning curve here and also normalcy bias.

Philippine Destiny wrote:

Common flu has a foothold already and its spread is well understood.

Coronavirus is just getting started.

Every time I look at the numbers and the possibilities it is scary.

There are a lot of factors that could make it better or worse. On the good side, it may already be a lot more wide spread than we know which might mean that it is a lot less deadly than it appears to be.

I do not want to think about the worst. At a point if it gets bad enough things compound and mortality starts to increase due to things that are not Coronavirus as first responders begin to be taken out and vital services and production assets start to fail.

I hope things tend toward the better side.

I too am hoping for a better outcome.   

However, it is quite evident that should this virus get exponentially larger...to where the infection rate is endemic here in the Phils...then we must realize that advanced critical care will no longer be accessible...even to wishful Westerners who could afford the best facilities.  If you are part of the unlucky 20% who need medical care you might receive the basics and oxygen support...but ICU with ventilator will most likely be unavailable.   

Let us fervently hope (not just for our sake) that the quarantine measures work and that it buys everyone time for a pharmacological treatment to emerge that can mitigate the serious complications.

MinimalistJourneyman wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

Common flu has a foothold already and its spread is well understood.

Coronavirus is just getting started.

Every time I look at the numbers and the possibilities it is scary.

There are a lot of factors that could make it better or worse. On the good side, it may already be a lot more wide spread than we know which might mean that it is a lot less deadly than it appears to be.

I do not want to think about the worst. At a point if it gets bad enough things compound and mortality starts to increase due to things that are not Coronavirus as first responders begin to be taken out and vital services and production assets start to fail.

I hope things tend toward the better side.

I too am hoping for a better outcome.   

However, it is quite evident that should this virus goi exponentially larger...to where the infection rate is endemic here in the Phils...then we must realize that advanced critical care will no longer be accessible...even to wishful Westerners who could afford the best facilities.  If you are part of the unlucky 20% who need medical care you might receive the basics and oxygen support...but ICU with ventilator will most likely be unavailable.   

Let us fervently hope (not just for our sake) that the quarantine measures work and that it buys everyone time for a pharmacological treatment to emerge that can mitigate the serious complications.

I had dengue twice last year. Last place I want to go is the hospital. It is a miserable experience.

It will not take much to push the system to the breaking point.

But this is not a one off. Most likely we are in for waves.

Waves that we create ourselves. As it slows down, we let our guards down and go to work to pay the late bills. As infection incidence rise we quarantine again having more late bills. As it slows down, we go to work to pay again the late bills, only more this time... And so forth. Yes in waves! If it were dictatorial or communist type like China, it would be dealt with decisively. Relentless lockdown/quarantine.

robal wrote:

Waves that we create ourselves. As it slows down, we let our guards down and go to work to pay the late bills. As infection incidence rise we quarantine again having more late bills. As it slows down, we go to work to pay again the late bills, only more this time... And so forth. Yes in waves! If it were dictatorial or communist type like China, it would be dealt with decisively. Relentless lockdown/quarantine.

Yup...some governments are also deploying apps and other technological tools to surveil people's movement, and their contacts with others, in order to be able to reconstruct, and block, transmission chains.

freedom or security


pick

People in Singapore who do not observe physical distancing of one meter in “non-transient” interactions can be fined up to 10,000 Singapore dollars ($6,985) or jailed up to six months, or face both penalties, said the Ministry of Health on Thursday night.The stiff penalties also apply to patients with acute respiratory symptoms issued with five days of medical leave who depart from their homes during that period, according to the press release. Residents who breach 14-day stay home notices issued to them after their return from another country will also have to comply or face fines and jail.The number of cases in the city-state started climbing last week compared to February and early March, with most of the new cases imported. Singapore had 683 cases as of Thursday....One such IRRESPONSIBLE Singapore Citizen has just had his passport impounded!

Herd immunity is not working out with Coronavirus

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

Instead of creating immunity the virus can reportedly reinfect an individual and hasten fatal heart attack.

According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It's highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn't help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/l … _TODAY%27s morning briefing for March 31, 2020 %28ACTIVE%29_newsletter_31032020_today