COVID19 - Will there be a run on the banks?

Have credit cards to shop at superstores, buy gas.  Won't need much else.  Our electric bill gets read on the 20th every month and is due 10 days later.  Wonder if the banks or seven eleven will be open so we can pay it on time.  Cable and WiFi paid through April 25, should be no problems.

Depends on how long this drags out,

Also depends on if people see things that make them panic.

Many wait too long to prepare for everything and call everyone crazy who prepares ahead of time. Then when things go bad they panic.

stay calm and prepare

I found this

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1096805

Just wait until paper and coins are done away with because they carry disease.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/06/bank-not … -12361946/

Fred wrote:

I found this

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1096805

Thanks Fred,

read the article, and it seems to contradict the message we got from BDO, only in the Philippines.

So many contradictions going on at present: Asking foreigners to leave, but not having any flights for them to fly to Manila so they can leave.

Cheers
PEJ

Philippine Destiny wrote:

Depends on how long this drags out,

Also depends on if people see things that make them panic.

Many wait too long to prepare for everything and call everyone crazy who prepares ahead of time. Then when things go bad they panic.

stay calm and prepare

All stocked up here.  And as with living in any third world country, I always carry at least $5,000 in cash.  Mix of USD and PHP, as we know the PHP may crash and be worth nothing, always prepared.


PEJ

Just found this on the BSP web site, dated  03.14.2020:

Subject to prior approval of the Bangko Sentral, non-imposition of penalties on legal reserve deficiencies computed under Sec. 255/215-Q of the MORB/MORNBFI, starting from reserve week following 8 March 2020, the date of declaration of the President of the state of public health emergency under Presidential Proclamation No. 922, up to six (6) months thereafter.

An interesting move to allow the banks to drop below there designated reserves, which as we know were generally introduced on the back of the GFC, (that crazy situation that  Lehman Brothers got us into) to prevent another GFC.  If it works it will help all, if not banks will be bankrupt unless the big international end of town (or China) deiced to keep underwriting them (basically this country).  With this move from the BSP will have the lenders (or China ) looking at them and deciding if the Philippines is a good investment or not.  I would hope that this move must have been done with their permission.

USD or gold, might be the only thing to hold.  Sounds like WW2 all over again.

Not to alarm any one, as we all appreciate the situation the whole world is in.

My wife was listing a lot of the contradictions in directives and orders earlier today.

There are many reasons for the contradictions were are hearing about.

Miscommunication/misunderstanding

People are over stressed

People are tired

The system is very complex with directives needing to filter through a lot of layers. Things get changed or missed.

This event is just too big. They do drills for disasters and they have written plans for things, but no country can really be prepared 100% for it when it actually happens.

We are in uncharted territory here. I have never seen grocery store shelves bare in the US as I did here yesterday. Not completely bare, and still being restocked.. but clear evidence of the concern some are feeling. It reminded me of when I was in Moscow in the late 90's.

pnwcyclist wrote:

We are in uncharted territory here. I have never seen grocery store shelves bare in the US as I did here yesterday. Not completely bare, and still being restocked.. but clear evidence of the concern some are feeling. It reminded me of when I was in Moscow in the late 90's.

Grocery shelves being empty/raided is becoming a norm in many other parts of the world (incl US), due to sheer panic on the planned lockdowns & home quarantine requirements.
Yes we are in uncharted territory.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatod … 5041064002

Philippine Destiny wrote:

Depends on how long this drags out,

Also depends on if people see things that make them panic.

Many wait too long to prepare for everything and call everyone crazy who prepares ahead of time. Then when things go bad they panic.

stay calm and prepare

Not easy especially for poorer residents to be prepared...they would need cash for that, which may not be readily available.....so many just laugh it off & panic only when its too late.
I saw the president duterte live speech the other day & one of the things he mentioned was on preventing starvation especially in the provinces, he has declared that all barangay captains will be reponsible in preparing to meet these challenges. (I would presume that they too would be stocking basic food items up on behalf of poor residents.)

If any one finds that the bank is restricting withdraw's either electronically or over the counter, or reduced the size of the withdraw from the Automatic Teller Machine, could you let us know.

Or if you hear other information that effects the stability of the banks, I feel that we would appreciate it if you could post here.

PEJ

This may be related...I sense that the local roaming on foreign SIM cards seem to have be deactivated or impossible to get a signal.
Its next to impossible to make any cash transfer fm Singapore to Philippines as the security feature (2FA) includes a SMS code which is sent & needs that to be input for the on-line transaction to go through...
not sure if anyone else has this problem!

Thanks

manwonder wrote:

This may be related...I sense that the local roaming on foreign SIM cards seem to have be deactivated or impossible to get a signal.
Its next to impossible to make any cash transfer fm Singapore to Philippines as the security feature (2FA) includes a SMS code which is sent & needs that to be input for the on-line transaction to go through...
not sure if anyone else has this problem!

Thanks

problems with comms?

Philippine Destiny wrote:

manwonder wrote:

This may be related...I sense that the local roaming on foreign SIM cards seem to have be deactivated or impossible to get a signal.
Its next to impossible to make any cash transfer fm Singapore to Philippines as the security feature (2FA) includes a SMS code which is sent & needs that to be input for the on-line transaction to go through...
not sure if anyone else has this problem!

Thanks

problems with comms?

Looks like!!!

manwonder wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

manwonder wrote:

This may be related...I sense that the local roaming on foreign SIM cards seem to have be deactivated or impossible to get a signal.
Its next to impossible to make any cash transfer fm Singapore to Philippines as the security feature (2FA) includes a SMS code which is sent & needs that to be input for the on-line transaction to go through...
not sure if anyone else has this problem!

Thanks

problems with comms?

Looks like!!!

maybe just a temporary thing not to worry about

Two thing's that i noticed today:

Firstly:

Stock, bond and currency trading suspended in the Philippines John Reed reports from Bangkok  "The Philippines is shutting down stock, bond, and currency trading on Tuesday until further notice, becoming the first major financial market to close because of the coronavirus outbreak. The Philippine Stock Exchange announced the move in a statement late on Monday, and said it was in connection with President Rodrigo Duterte's decision to place all of Luzon island under an “enhanced community quarantine.” Ramon Monzon, the PSE's chief executive, said that the market would remain shut until further notice “to ensure the safety of employees and traders in light of the escalating cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).” The Philippine market has been among those hit hardest in Asia by the global markets rout, down 32 per cent in the year to date. The country has reported 142 coronavirus cases to date, and 12 deaths.  - 

Acknowledgement of the above article and author, Alice Woodhouse MAR 17, 12:20
  -  John Reed reports from Bangkok see Financial Times:

https://www.ft.com/content/79d19c62-139 … f1f091e336

As we know the above has been done to prevent a run on the financial markets.

The 2nd thing is that a friend from New Zeland was not able to do electronic transaction between his NZ bank and his GF's BPI bank account in here in Philippines.

This and my opening statement to this topic, is what i believe is been done stop a run on the banks.

manwonder wrote:

This may be related...I sense that the local roaming on foreign SIM cards seem to have be deactivated or impossible to get a signal.
Its next to impossible to make any cash transfer fm Singapore to Philippines as the security feature (2FA) includes a SMS code which is sent & needs that to be input for the on-line transaction to go through...
not sure if anyone else has this problem!

Thanks

This may be similar to what happened to my NZ friend i mention in my lost post here.

Manwonder, have you been able to do electronic transaction from Singapore to the Philippines today?

pej1111 wrote:

manwonder wrote:

This may be related...I sense that the local roaming on foreign SIM cards seem to have be deactivated or impossible to get a signal.
Its next to impossible to make any cash transfer fm Singapore to Philippines as the security feature (2FA) includes a SMS code which is sent & needs that to be input for the on-line transaction to go through...
not sure if anyone else has this problem!

Thanks

This may be similar to what happened to my NZ friend i mention in my lost post here.

Manwonder, have you been able to do electronic transaction from Singapore to the Philippines today?

Sorry jus saw yr msg....i've repeatedly kept trying for the last 4days & still NOT AVAIL!
Lucky like many here I have funds to pull through for another 2 months & then i'll start to panic.
Globe (Phils) /Singtel (Sg) both telcos have been alerted (email) but no reply as yet!

Thanks

manwonder wrote:

pej1111 wrote:

manwonder wrote:

This may be related...I sense that the local roaming on foreign SIM cards seem to have be deactivated or impossible to get a signal.
Its next to impossible to make any cash transfer fm Singapore to Philippines as the security feature (2FA) includes a SMS code which is sent & needs that to be input for the on-line transaction to go through...
not sure if anyone else has this problem!

Thanks

This may be similar to what happened to my NZ friend i mention in my lost post here.

Manwonder, have you been able to do electronic transaction from Singapore to the Philippines today?

Sorry jus saw yr msg....i've repeatedly kept trying for the last 4days & still NOT AVAIL!
Lucky like many here I have funds to pull through for another 2 months & then i'll start to panic.
Globe (Phils) /Singtel (Sg) have been alerted but no reply fm them.


Thanks

I did a transfer (TransferWise) from a US bank two hours ago to BDO, the money is in my account now.

Used a computer not a Smart Phone.

I only keep 1,000 USD in my BDO dollar account, I transfer as needed from my US dollar account to my BDO Peso account as needed.

Only 40% of Filipinos have bank accounts

Thats how i did it before all on the pc but they created this stupid SMS (2FA) security system where you should input an SMS (5 digit password) to confirm the transaction! AH to say the least!

W9XR wrote:

manwonder wrote:

pej1111 wrote:

This may be similar to what happened to my NZ friend i mention in my lost post here.

Manwonder, have you been able to do electronic transaction from Singapore to the Philippines today?

Sorry jus saw yr msg....i've repeatedly kept trying for the last 4days & still NOT AVAIL!
Lucky like many here I have funds to pull through for another 2 months & then i'll start to panic.
Globe (Phils) /Singtel (Sg) have been alerted but no reply fm them.


Thanks

I did a transfer (TransferWise) from a US bank two hours ago to BDO, the money is in my account now.

Used a computer not a Smart Phone.

I only keep 1,000 USD in my BDO dollar account, I transfer as needed from my US dollar account to my BDO Peso account as needed.

Only 40% of Filipinos have bank accounts

TransferWise seems to be a good deal. Better than Express Send.

For your consideration:

Philippines shutting down stock, bond, and currency trading on Tuesday (17th of Mar 2020) until further notice, to prevent a run on the financial markets.

The equity levels which the banks have to hold, has been reduced.  Placing the banks more at risk while allowing more cash flow into the Philippines during the COVID19 situation.

And with consideration that the Philippines government has already (prior to COVID19) injected an economic stimulus into the Philippines local economy by increasing government workers wages, in order to stimulate the local economy .

And that the government has injected more money into the local economy (1 months wage's to workers who are laid off) been spent by the government, to keep the economy going by placing money workers hands).

I appreciate that the Philippines government bottom line has been propped up with cash injections by China and Russia recently (the last couple of years) and prior to that and still ongoing the USA, and to a smaller degree the World Bank, and other countries.

The recognition that a lot of the Philippines economy came from OFW's and tourism, and that they don't have any great export markets,  (remember what the President did with rice to keep it's price down).

IF, that is a conservative IF depending on your outlook, there is a run on banks then it will be time to seek protection.  (You can read protection how you wish to).

The thing to watch will be the payment of Government pensions, that will be the first indicator that "stuff is about to hit the fan."

The Philippines has taken a risk prior COVID 19 and now things are not looking good.  Cash is king, USD and foreign currency is silver and gold is gold.

pej1111 wrote:

For your consideration:

Philippines shutting down stock, bond, and currency trading on Tuesday (17th of Mar 2020) until further notice, to prevent a run on the financial markets.

The equity levels which the banks have to hold, has been reduced.  Placing the banks more at risk while allowing more cash flow into the Philippines during the COVID19 situation.

And with consideration that the Philippines government has already (prior to COVID19) injected an economic stimulus into the Philippines local economy by increasing government workers wages, in order to stimulate the local economy .

And that the government has injected more money into the local economy (1 months wage's to workers who are laid off) been spent by the government, to keep the economy going by placing money workers hands).

I appreciate that the Philippines government bottom line has been propped up with cash injections by China and Russia recently (the last couple of years) and prior to that and still ongoing the USA, and to a smaller degree the World Bank, and other countries.

The recognition that a lot of the Philippines economy came from OFW's and tourism, and that they don't have any great export markets,  (remember what the President did with rice to keep it's price down).

IF, that is a conservative IF depending on your outlook, there is a run on banks then it will be time to seek protection.  (You can read protection how you wish to).

The thing to watch will be the payment of Government pensions, that will be the first indicator that "stuff is about to hit the fan."

The Philippines has taken a risk prior COVID 19 and now things are not looking good.  Cash is king, USD and foreign currency is silver and gold is gold.

Agree it is very worrying!
With so many countries in "Mass Lay-Off" mode...the local citizens welfare/employment will take priority, leaving these OFW's in limbo & leaving them exposed to significant job losses that we already see happening around the globe.
Another point is if one OFW losses his earning capacity...there will be 4-6 other family members who will be affected in some way or another.
Also the local employment situation...where the daily wages they get are extremely low to begin with, and lossing a  job would leave another few exposed to further poverty. (Many who don't even have a bank account or any savings to begin with!)
That could be why the presidential address included the preparation for starvation prevention... expats need to be well prepared if things don't improve within 1month.

When in the states my wife watched TFC on cable, the programing was caption in English.

I wish they would show English captions here so I could make informed decisions instead of listening to uninformed street  locals with misinformation.

President Duterte seems to drone on, almost lulling me to sleep. A little inflection in his delivery might go a long ways to install confidence.

If I want to know the reality of the situation I have to watch the nightly news from from the States from several different sources. Unfortunately it's on Youtube and almost a day late.

They are pushing cashless hard on the news.

Other than dealing with Failed Banks...cashless transactions will be just fine!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c … warns.html

Most Filipino's don't have a bank account so to introduce cashless society here would not work.  The country is still making centavos.  Sadly the poor are not the one's that keep the bank's afloat, it is the minority of people with money.

I enjoyed the article manwonder, yep stimulating any economy via low/negative interest rates is risky, and will negative rate would cause a run on the banks.

pej1111 wrote:

Most Filipino's don't have a bank account so to introduce cashless society here would not work.  The country is still making centavos.  Sadly the poor are not the one's that keep the bank's afloat, it is the minority of people with money.

Cashless society goes beyond plastic. An example with no transportation from Grab, Tricycles or Jeepneys what good is plastic if you can't get to a grocery store? What good is plastic if you can't get to an ATM?

So you shop at some small neighborhood market until you run out of cash.

Friends this is an ongoing thing, probably going to last more than a month, so plastic is null & void and and at some point you will run out of cash that you have on hand.

My son tried to hire a neighbor with a car to transport us, the neighbor turned us down about fear from being stopped by the police. I told my son, when the neighbor runs out of money he will change his mind.

(Just as I'm typing this my son found somebody who will drive us for 1000 peso for gas)

W9XR wrote:

pej1111 wrote:

Most Filipino's don't have a bank account so to introduce cashless society here would not work.  The country is still making centavos.  Sadly the poor are not the one's that keep the bank's afloat, it is the minority of people with money.

Cashless society goes beyond plastic. An example with no transportation from Grab, Tricycles or Jeepneys what good is plastic if you can't get to a grocery store? What good is plastic if you can't get to an ATM?

So you shop at some small neighborhood market until you run out of cash.

Friends this is an ongoing thing, probably going to last more than a month, so plastic is null & void and and at some point you will run out of cash that you have on hand.

My son tried to hire a neighbor with a car to transport us, the neighbor turned us down about fear from being stopped by the police. I told my son, when the neighbor runs out of money he will change his mind.

(Just as I'm typing this my son found somebody who will drive us for 1000 peso for gas)

Yep mate, that is what i was implying.  Same thoughts as you.  "Most Filipino's don't have a bank account so to introduce cashless society here would not work."

Well just returned from S&R. I've never seen so many old white bald men in one place. They had a good supply of toilet paper for us old white bald men. We didn't need it as I bought a jumbo pack some time ago.

Found most of the stuff I wanted to buy to supplement our fully stocked pantry. But no sardines, canned meat or alcohol. Our only alcohol was a six pack of Budweiser for my son. Their snack bar was open for carryouts, pizza, chicken, hotdogs.

Light traffic, one check point going, check our drivers, driver license.

I've just emptied my DBP savings Acct (in partners name) / Managed to exchange some emergency SGD to piso (rate only @ 34 best i could find around) used to get 38.5 some months ago...sheesh!
Intention was to stash away some extra piso for any emergency.
No more crowded streets/shops in the city area...funny normally they are packed.

W9XR wrote:

Well just returned from S&R. I've never seen so many old white bald men in one place. They had a good supply of toilet paper for us old white bald men. We didn't need it as I bought a jumbo pack some time ago.

Found most of the stuff I wanted to buy to supplement our fully stocked pantry. But no sardines, canned meat or alcohol. Our only alcohol was a six pack of Budweiser for my son. Their snack bar was open for carryouts, pizza, chicken, hotdogs.

Light traffic, one check point going, check our drivers, driver license.

Did you have to see someone to get a pass to go shopping?  Here in Maueva, Santa, we were told we need to see the barangay captain to get the proper paperwork to go shopping in Vigan, about 15 clicks north.

No, Just grabbed a cart, S&R staff sanitized the handle and away we went. They were busy but nothing last friday when you had grid lock in the aisles. Withdrew plenty of cash at atm, but paid my bill by plastic.

My advice to fellow expats, conserve cash, use plastic. You can reconcile your finances when this mess is over.

No gun, but I have several aluminum baseball bats.

Agreed; however only the higher end retailers/malls/hotels allow the use of these cards....Not many such establishments in our area!
(Here i guess the ratio of locals without a bank account *may infact exceed 70%)

Hello everyone,

Due to a few off-topic posts on this thread, I would encourage those who wish to talk about issues related to shopping, or any other subject, to create a new thread on the Philippines forum in order to do so.

Thanks,

Diksha
Team Expat.com

I have had no trouble using my Bank of America card in ATM or my BDO card

Okieboy wrote:

I have had no trouble using my Bank of America card in ATM or my BDO card

I use my BoA card many times at S&R.

I did my cash run using BDO debit card at ATM. The only problem wearing rubber gloves I had to pound the screen several times for a reaction.