Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Thanks Doc

Thanks for info 

And be it known that 80% of transmission comes from asymptomatic carriers. That makes it a very good pandemic candidate. We are now at the brink of that as there is now a case at the African continent (Nigeria). Mortality rate: 2% at this time. 0.1% for the common flu which is 1/20th of the pathogenicity of the new Corona virus strain. The common flu kills around 600,000 yearly and if this strain of Corona virus becomes as common as the flu, it would kill 12,000,000 worldwide. That really keeps laboratories developing new meds at their toes and government regulators messing up their pants.

robal

Interesting! I wonder is this will affect visa applications and travel into Brazil?

Texanbrazil wrote:

Interesting! I wonder is this will affect visa applications and travel into Brazil?

It´s now almost global so the only way to not infect each other or spread the disease is to restrict travel, hence the postponement of visa applications... I´m sure Brazil is now a part of this prophylactic regimen.

Average of 13% stock market crash this week alone. It still considered THE overdue correction. Some analysts are saying though that it could hit 40%, worse than the 2008 scenario where a lot of retirees lost their retirement funds. THAT could contribute to a global recession. That other shoe could drop anytime and let the free-fall - no stopping of trading.

China is very leveraged on loans used in their massive infrastructure build-up through the years. I can see a bankrupt China if there´s a global recession as those loans are called in. Any Alibaba and TenCent investor here?

robal

robal wrote:

Texanbrazil wrote:

Interesting! I wonder is this will affect visa applications and travel into Brazil?

It´s now almost global so the only way to not infect each other or spread the disease is to restrict travel, hence the postponement of visa applications... I´m sure Brazil is now a part of this prophylactic regimen.

I agree. Health system alone could not withsatand

Experts are now saying it will become pandemic and cause a global recession like I suspected all along. Here´s just one read to reinforce the prediction:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/432859 … -recession

I have a 3-month supply of provisions tucked away at my mountain hideaway - away from people and I´m closely monitoring of the spread just in case I have to triple the food, medications, drinking water and hygiene supplies. I just updated my flu vaccination and recently bought Tamiflu, alcohol disinfectants, cough and other cold medications including aspirin. Thermometer I already have and I´m letting go of masks. I´m contemplating of at least an anti-malarial drug or even anti HIV if available.
I´m stocking up my freezer. I´m also planning to soon purchase more food supplies before the crowd clean away the shelves because of panic:

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor … g-productshttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/consum … f-n1144351

Here are some preferred food that I tucked away at my hideout for longevity and therefore could be used if any catastrophe passes away:

1. Liquor: Indefinite shelf life.
2. White rice: Indefinite
3. Honey: Indefinite
4. Dried beans: Indefinite
5. Canned sardines/tuna: 3-5 years
6. Dark chocolate: 2-5 years
7. Peanut butter: 2years
8. Bouillon cubes: 2 years
9. Dried pasta: 1-2years
10. Canned fruits and vegetables: 1-2years
11. Tea: 6-12 mos.
12. Apples: 5days - 6mos
13. Winter squash (moranguinho): 1-3mos
14. Peanuts: 1-2mos
15. Onions: 1-2mos
16. Potatoes: 2-5 weeks

I´m looking for a reasonably priced powdered milk if any and a way to produce beef jerky. Gosh, I forgot to buy me a dehydrator from the US to dry fruits in season. This can also be used to make beef jerky. I haven´t found SPAM or corned beef like Libby´s for example. I don´t like the local variety. That could tremendously help as a protein source. It does sound crazy, but Brazil could be the next outbreak.

I should have executed my doomsday underground bunker construction last year. Have more projects
so that could come next!

Stay tuned!

robal

I maybe too late but we went on Last Saturday to the grocery store. We stock up for a month and there were many people and all the batteries and alcohol were gone even from the pharmacy. There is map the news has been showing the case of COVID19

Update as of today on the Coronavirus spread:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

robal

And an update of the Corona virus mutation. So there are 2 strains, the L which is more common and the S ancestral strain.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavi … cted-study

robal

It seems that there´s not much impact on the spread so far in Brazil. It must be the higher humidity and temperature...

There´s now 19 cases of confirmed COVID-19 infection in Brazil:

São Paulo: 13
Rio de Janeiro: 2
Bahia: 2
Espirito Santo: 1
Distrito Federal: 1 (in serious condition at ICU).

There are 673 suspected cases and 601 cases has been discarded.

robal

Just want everybody to know that lower temperatures are fast approaching with April being the focal point in Brazil. Sunshine, humidity and higher temperatures does affect the spread of COVID-19. Here´s a good read from one of the experts:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w … ths/679415

robal

The spread in Brazil is slow but could increase in speed as the temperature plummets and more people are infected and transmit the disease exponentially. Some experts say it could go on worldwide for a year before it burns out.

Update on COVID-19 spread as of March 9, 2020:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

robal

Economic repercussions on COVID-19:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433045 … hly-likelyhttps://seekingalpha.com/article/433028 … ks-to-come

robal

And weŽll see if gas prices will decrease in Brazil with Brent crude down to $35 a barrel:

https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investin … index.html

robal

robal wrote:

Just want everybody to know that lower temperatures are fast approaching with April being the focal point in Brazil. Sunshine, humidity and higher temperatures does affect the spread of COVID-19. Here´s a good read from one of the experts:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w … ths/679415

robal

Having mentioned that, Im referring to the plunge in temperature of the last 4 southern states in Brazil plus any elevated mountainous area in Brazil.

Stock markets falling around the world. A rout this monday:

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro … index.html

robal

yea no, i have been able to secure finally my proper visa and on my way back home in a few weeks with everything done proper! just as long as people are not with the symptoms its not a problem is what the consulate told me

Mikeflanagan wrote:

yea no, i have been able to secure finally my proper visa and on my way back home in a few weeks with everything done proper! just as long as people are not with the symptoms its not a problem is what the consulate told me

Just remember that the transmission can happen from asymptomatic individuals. Some governments quarantine people for only 14 days. It´s noted that some experts consider incubation period for up to 27days.

robal

A quick update. The Director of Thoracic Surgery at the Hospital das Clínicas, São Paulo
and other doctors in the area have been discussing the possible outcomes of the Corona virus spread:

1. The next 15 days would define of how the Corona virus would affect Brazil.
2. Within 4 mos, the peak should pass.
3. Mortality Rate: Old people: 18%      Young: 0.2%
4. In the state of São Paulo alone, cases could go from 80,000 to 100,000. I think this is
    a little exaggerated as Brazil´s spread resembles France due to probably higher
    temperature and humidity. That reflects China more.
5. The peak should be from now to 1 month.
6. Only 1,000 hospital beds has been contracted by the São Paulo authorities despite
    estimates that 11,000 patients would need ICU for the Coronavirus. Exaggeration? You decide.
7. Doctors estimate that within 4mos, 45,000 Coronavirus infections would have
    occurred in São Paulo.

That´s it for now. Thanks.

robal

thanks for the update doc!

Stay tuned. It might get hectic in the next 2 weeks...

Announced the closing of the BR/PY Bridge.

I am pinned down ... due to the roads being mostly destroyed by the heavy rains between here and Salvador, and then United goes and cancels my flight and they won`t answer the phone.
Well, hells bells, there`s worse places in the world I could be .....

yea united is pretty bad, my direct flight from fort lauderdale to recifce was switched to a multi stop trip from azul, they gave me the option to change flight or keep the adjustment with a 2000 real voucher for the inconvinience . so playing it by ear as to when i will come back down unfortunatly

With an increase of people reported as positive, the % of death should decrease.
Argentina has announce that the Falls Iguazu National Park will remain open, but limited to only 2000 people per day. (Online tickets only. No buying at the entrance). 1.9 million visit BR and AR Falls every year.
No word as to the BR side actions.
Robal has pointed out the many issues. BR health care is not ready for such. If a trucker strike can affect delivery of medical supply where Rio and other medical facilities had to limit to emergency only. Think what this will do.
I cannot imagine how many unknows are in Rio alone after carnaval.

The BR president doesn't care a lot as he met with large crowds demonstrations. BR boarders are not closed like other countries in South America. São Paulo and Rio has closed schools but everything else is status quo.

With 200 million people, numbers will go up until a vaccine is made.

Texanbrazil wrote:

Announced the closing of the BR/PY Bridge.

I´ve increased food, hygiene, cleaning supplies, etc. to a family I´m helping. I´ll hit 2 more stores today hopefully to complete a 3-moth supply. Their horizontal freezer that I just purchased all stocked up. I´ve completed mine. I´ve estimated that a minimum of 1 3/4 to a 2 month supply should be provided for with reference to China´s peak duration of the virulence. No rush to supermarkets yet here at the south.

Farmacia São João just announced that due to demand there could be shortages of flu and cough medications, masks, vitamins etc related to COVID 19. This is another area that I should hit today. Meds that I plan to buy:

1. Prednisone/Prednisolone - Anti cytokines. To control lung inflammation (pneumonia) as the lungs are flooded with cytokines due to an exaggerated immune response. This causes fluids to accumulate in the lungs.
2. Tamiflu - to inhibit the Corona virus growth.
3. Azythromycin if Clarithromycin is not vailable. For secondary bacterial infection if you´re quarantining yourself.
4. Masks, gloves.
5. Acetaminophen, aspirin to control fever.
6. Cough medications.
7. At least either a malarial or an HIV medication (if Tamiflu fails). Or I can make a cocktail of them
depending on the interaction of the medications.

This is for me. You should consult your physician for your own sake.

robal

American Airlines cancelled flights into and from BR.
AR National Parks closed. Those who are going to the Iguazu Falls will be out of luck. Additionally if people leave AR to BR tourist may not be allowed back into AR,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Texanbrazil wrote:

American Airlines cancelled flights into and from BR.
AR National Parks closed. Those who are going to the Iguazu Falls will be out of luck. Additionally if people leave AR to BR tourist may not be allowed back into AR,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Right. Argentinian tourists better have more cash reserves as they´re stranded in Brazil. Why should they travel here now? The worst of all scenario as you´re away from the safety of home.

I just got reminded to get more cash at hand to avoid rush from people and even possible bank closure.

Just a reminder. No panic and do business quietly.

A classmate of one of the children I´m helping attended school today coughing. I heard from my "comadre" that she´s been in São Paulo together with her parents. We just pulled the children from school and now at home. I hope the parents would observe themselves and quarantine if possible at home. There is a case close to where I live with
Coronavirus after traveling to Italy.

robal