Hurricane Season 2019....to Watch

Thanks for sharing this!  Appreciate the heads up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi … #contentsm

5pm update.

Now Tropical Storm Dorian and current track takes it towards South East Coast of DR for next Thursday as a CAT 1 hurricane (85mph). The track and cone is for guidance so keep checking in on the main updates at 5pm, 11pm, 5am and 11am at www.nhc.noaa.gov

Start the preparedness planning if you live in the DR cone, but it does look like some parts of DR will be affected and of course we hope the strength drops.

Here is the site I track from.: www.spaghettimodels.com

He also can be followed on Facebook.  It's a good site that tracks my other sites including NHC.  He really explains things well!   

No one should panic but should be watching and preparing should it be necessary. If you are in hotels, they will advise you.  Many registered with their embassies will be advised by email alert.

I always pay attention as I have businesses and employees!  Don't panic but do take it seriously! 

Tomorrow I will look for my hurricane  prep email and add it here.

The latest central track puts Dorian as a tropical storm passing over Santo Domingo but that allows for a large amount of uncertainty.

The weather models are split. There are those that predict a weaker storm which will tend to drive it more westwards and weaken and even disipate and others that see the storm strengthening and moving more northerly impacting perhaps Puerto Rico, the East Coast and Samana and running close to the North Coast. It is a small storm but small storms can rapidly intensify or the opposite. There is so much uncertainty right now as explained in the NHC discussion on Dorain.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M … 2105.shtml

The latest recent run of the HWRF model is not nice viewing for those on the East Coast and Samana nor the Bahama chain and Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi … amp;fh=234   Scroll backwards to see the tracking past DR

We should all be watching and being prepared.

Always watching!

Thanks for the heads up...we arrive Tuesday doe a couple weeks.  Forecasts indicate fair amount of thunderstorms (40-50% prob).

Proving that it really does rain even in paradise.   

Bringing umbrellas.

The weather is often going to show thunderstorms or rain and it will rain somewhere but maybe not on you!  Always bring an umbrella in case you need it.

2pm intermediate advisory from NHC:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi … e#contents

There is increasing consensus about the likley tracking but less so with intensity, albeit NHC is forecasting the storm as a hurricane as it passes DR, south east to north coast.

A hurricane watch could be issued later today.

Hurricane Hunters and the dopplar aircraft, Gonzo, are going into the storm this afternoon so we will likley know with more certainty for the 5pm full advisory.

Sorry I had no time to find my list today, too busy planning in case this is a direct hit!

Please keep an eye on things.

I use this site which pulls from many others including NHc
Www.spaghettimodels.com

The NHC projected central path of Dorian remains very much the same as it has for the past few days impacting DR and passing along the east and north east coasts but the latest intensity projections keep it as a tropical storm:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi … e#contents

Hurricane watches are now in place for DR from Isla Soana to Samana and tropical storm watches from Isla Soana to Palenque and Samana to Puerto Plata.

Remember the storm can shift within the cone indicated and because it is a small storm it could quickly intensify or reduce intensity. Be ready for all eventualities. Let's hope it gets weaker!

Yesterday evening the dopplar radar NOAA plane, Gonzo, carried out a survey around Dorain and found that dry air was entering the storm core at intermediate levels and this has been affecting the storm and it's intensity. This addition to NOAA really helps see things not clearly evident from other monitoring.

The storm looks more compact right now as it crosses St Lucia with some healthy outflow on the east side and new convection firing up but faces dry air as it heads our way and some potential increased shear nearer to Hispaniola.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat … product=ir

If history means anything
The north coast rebuffs these storms , being protected by the high lands so close to the shore.

Secondly, because of the clockwise rotation, the weaker, dryer side of the storm is the southern side... the DR side.

I'm not minimizing the issue.... just saying the north coast rarely takes it on the chin !!
Damage yes.... full force, rarely

Another thing to watch is the speed of the storm
2 yrs ago, the 1 st one passed in 8 hrs
The 2nd was 18 hrs

All about speed....  and wind force
The longer the wind is allowed to stay.... the more damage usually

5pm NHC update:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi … e#contents

The centre track has shifted eastwards such that it is now more likley to cross Puerto Rico and be offshore of the most easterly part of DR which is better news for DR if that is what actually happens.

Only a part of the north east coast of DR from Bavaro to Samana is now in the cone. But the tropical storm is now bigger so there will rain and wind to come. Tropical storm force winds (>34knots) currently reach out 40 nautical miles in the north west quadrant but reportedly zero in the south west quadrant.

And it has shifted east.  I feel for Puerto Rico!  We are likely to get some rain still which is much needed!

DR is safe - it appears- from anything serious

Dodged a bullet. A stubborn small starter than has been growing and could be a big threat to mainland USA.

Agreed.

Here is something interesting for those who work or run businesses:

When they establish alerts as storms approach this is what it means to you:

Green - business etc as usual but be watching.

Yellow -  business continues BUT  employees in a yellow alert can choose to go to work or stay with their families.  Employers do NOT  need to pay anyone who stays home but you cannot punish them either.

Red -  Non essential services need to close. Employees are to STAY HOME and employers must pay them.   IF an employee goes to work then the employer is responsible for whatever happens to them.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi … e#contents

Dorian is about to make it as a hurricane but it will be east end of PR, it's islands and the Virgins in the firing line and not us thankfully. And maybe something severe for the northern Bahamas and Florida for Labor Day weekend.

I'm actually disappointed.  We're on-island for our residency submission, and I was kind of hoping to check "ride out a hurricane " off my bucket list. 

Of course, I would never wish it so just for my own thrills.   I'm glad that people are spared the difficulties. 

But should it ever become inevitable...I simply hope to be here.  On high ground!

ExpatRusher

Ride out a hurricane would be right next to jump out of a airplane without a parachute on my list.

Maybe amend your bucket list to tropical storm.  I have been through a number of them.   Pretty much an adrenalin filled time without as much destruction.

Spend enough time here and you are almost certain to experience a tropical storm.

I've been through a few.  The amount of water falling from the sky and the wind defies description.

I did experience George in 1998 , and some more Tropical Storms came to this Island while I have been here . I will never forget the Sound nor the Damage Caused By George . It has been the only Hurricane I experienced on the Coast . I made Experience with a Cyclon in the Indian Sea even worst . I am glad that I did survive both and I do not understand People who say they would like to experience one . Another reason for me to stay in Santiago because all the Country History Santiago had less Damage from Hurricanes ever .

To give an example: During Georges I had a carport with a 30 inch wall on all 4 sides of the roof. There were 8 4" PVC tubes for drains - one in each corner, and one in the middle of each wall between the corners.
During the height of the storm, that roof had water overflowing the top of the 30" wall, and the water was also shooting out of the 8 tubes like fire hoses.
I lived in an area with excellent drainage back then, and my house had almost a foot of water in the street in front.
The moment the rain diminished, the water was gone in a minute or two.
Astonishing is putting it lightly.

It's truly amazing to experience but frankly not something I wish for.

For those of us who live a more expat lifestyle we can often ride it out.  Not so for most locals. The damage and devastation is something you never want to see! 

On a different note, I actually slept through my first tropical storm!

expatrusher wrote:

I'm actually disappointed.  We're on-island for our residency submission, and I was kind of hoping to check "ride out a hurricane " off my bucket list. 

Of course, I would never wish it so just for my own thrills.   I'm glad that people are spared the difficulties. 

But should it ever become inevitable...I simply hope to be here.  On high ground!

ExpatRusher

If you look at this video of Freeport, Grand Bahama, this afternoon you will quickly realize it is better to head away from a hurricane in case it develops strongly.

https://wapo.st/2HFvqbC (it is Grand Bahama and not Abaco as WP states)

I've done my time close to the eye in a Cat 4 and that was enough for me. And I spent time as a building consultant working with loss adjusters after Maria in St Croix, so I do know the damage these things do first hand and how it affects people.

I am in contact with my loss adjuster contacts in London and wonder if I may land up being asked to go to Grand Bahama? Best give it a few weeks....it is miserable being there without power and wi fi during curfew with most basics limited. Limited water at first too with accomodation and transport shortages whilst trying to meet with desperate insured owners to start the claim process. It is going to take time to dry out and establish ways to get on and off island.

These 5 monsters of the last 3 years are something we just don't want coming near DR for sure. A hit near Santo Domingo would take 2 and more years to sort out due to the poor infrastructure existing. It took PR nearly 2 years and they had better than DR has in general (East Coast is newer and better though).

You're right, Lennox.  I wouldn't want anyone to suffer.

And it's a lot easier for me to say, "Bring it On!!" when I can fly away back to the states and pick up life back there, as we'll be snowbirding in the DR, not permanent residents.  At least, not for a few years.   We'll own property here, eventually, but we'll no doubt purchase something newer and with better earthquake preps.

Still...DR is part of the Caribbean. I'd judge it 100% probability that the DR would get impacted by at least one major hurricane some time over the next 100 years.  Hurricanes have hit here before, right?   And they will hit here again. 

To think otherwise is to deny the realities of geography and weather/climate.

So, let's ask ourselves:  IF a hurricane will almost surely hit the DR in the next few decades, what can we do to mitigate the impacts to ourselves, our family(ies), and our neighbors?
>>  Select homes that are rated to survive hurricanes. Also, choose properties that are above the likely ocean surges.  With hurricanes, it is most definitely "pay the costs upfront, or pay higher costs later."   Need motivation?  If you're living on or near a beach, you might want to view some of the videos coming out of the Bahamas and reconsider!!! 
>> Store some basic, shelf-stable and long-term foodstuffs easy to prepare in an emergency. 
>>  Certainly, it would be wise to have a few ceramic-type (or equivalent) water filters stashed away just for emergency purposes.   Water is vital, and you don't want to add any one of dozens of pathogens into your drinking water when you're already dealing with a hurricane's aftermath.
>> Perhaps a simple propane-type camp stove, with a number of propane canisters and adapters, to be able to cook food and boil water, if needed?
>> For those with the resources...storing a chainsaw and suitable fuels & lubes would make you VERY popular with your neighbors after a hurricane leaves trees blocking every roadway in sight.
>> If one had the resources AND the space/zoning...safely storing even a small generator and some fuel for it would be an OUTSTANDING value to you...and your community.  Imagine being able to help your neighbors charge their cell phones, flashlights, batteries, etc.   
>> Having solar panels would be great, too -- but they'd have to be protected from the winds, or they'll just be glass and silicone.

That's just some thoughts to consider.  Hurricanes will happen here.  Seem best to prepare a bit. 


Jim
ExpatRusher

From my experience of working with loss adjusters after Maria I did share my experiences and thoughts on another forum on many of the questions you raise. I will write in more detail later.

As Willieweb has written, the geography of the north coast makes the full impact of a huge storm less likely thete so that will be some comfort to those who have settled in those parts.

But some simple adjustments to your property can prepare you for the hardships of a major hit. There is little you can do about the countrys infrastructure issues but as an individual think independantly.

More to follow.....

...talking to key people in London about mobilizing.....

Thanks for all your comments and suggestions!

The north coast is somewhat protected.
The south coast is not.
The east coast is not.

Climate change is shifting patterns and assumptions. We all need to be prepared.

AND we all need to understand how much the Dominican people will need our assistance should a big one once again hit.

All you need to do is google historic hurricanes to see what has gone on here in the past!

I agree w/ the idea of preparing.

Many of of us live in a 'prepared' state already.. I do

I am solar, have a generator, use a well about 100M (300ft) above sea level.
We were not too bothered by the double header two yrs ago.

House of block w/ hurricane strength glass....tile roof.
Plus, a north coast location.

Would it withstand a Dorian ??
I doubt it... but I have trouble seeing that happen , given the topography.

And on the news this morning a cruise ship has brought tons of aid to the Bahamas and brought over 1,000 people back to Florida!!!  GOOD FOR THEM!!!!!

The geography of the North Coast is beneficial because many storms develop at lower latitudes and trend north during their east west passage. But that doesn't account for those storms, and particularly those strong Cape Verde storms that travel westward across the Atlantic at slightly higher latitudes at this time of year, which could be driven southwards by climatic conditions eg Ike in 2006 which drove south across Cuba after passing just north of DR devastating the TCI. A track with land inpact of the North Coast was was predicted to happen with Irma as it moved westward but thankfully it didn't because a ridge of high pressure kept it's strength this time and it tracked westwards off shore.

(As a side note, when I went to the TCI back in 2005, all the people there said the islands were safe from hurricanes because historically they had not been hit for many many years and the tracking from the south meant the mountains of DR protected them. Well then in 2006 they got Hanna and Ike in 2 weeks and have since been hit by irma and Maria. The people of Barbuda felt safe having avoided a hit for a multitude of years and then Irma came and wiped them out. and I guess the peoples of the northern islands of the Bahamas were in their comfort zone too with the last hit back in 2003 I believe. Nowhere is safe in the Caribbean and it is a falsehood to think otherwise and you need to be prepared for that risk)

The North Coast has been fortunate for many years, as indeed has the whole of DR, which has not been hit by a big one for 20 years (George). But we must not forget that there have been deaths and washed away buildings due to the effects of tropical storms which have dumped huge amounts of rain especially on the North Coast rather than other areas due to it's topography.

And lets not forget the people on the North Coast of Puerto Rico who probably were thinking the same about their chosen location....until Maria came and crossed over the country from south to north starting as a 155mph storm (1mph less than Cat 5 and leaving as a Cat 3 causing much damage and destruction and surviving the mountains there which are of smilar height to the ones between the South East and North Coast of DR! It could happen here too with a storm event like Maria!

The whole Caribbean is at risk of strong tropical storms and more so now that air and water temperatures are higher and climatic change is with us and that includes the whole of the North Coast. Geographically, Cabrera sticks out into the ocean so WW it is good that you are prepared and have as strong structure. The high mountain topography to the west won't be helping you much from storms coming from the east or south east.

Final point is that the East Coast does have better infrastructure and will likely weather the effects of a storm much better than the rest of DR when it comes. But the lowest flat topography could be cause for concern in some places with a high storm surge. Much of the horrific damage we see in the Bahamas is through storm surge to add to the unbelievable power of the wind. Did you see the viedo of the remains of Freeport Airport Terminal Building which has been washed away inside to a high level?

Excellent and informative post. You are absolutely correct.

The rules are changing and no one knows what they are anymore.  One example is the speed of growth of some of these storms.

The days of thinking, not us, are going, going gone!!!  Everyone should be prepared.

Honestly I was in Saint Martin when Hurricane Irma and Maria came through and you should not wish to feel the impact of any storm for the sake of having the experience. I was in a building on the second floor while the ground floor flooded to the ceiling removing window door all furnitures including cabinets sink and counter and blew  ( gusting up to 230 mile per hour and sustained winds of 180 mph for at least one minute) about $20,000 in hurricane shutters off of the building . Every car for a few square miles was destroyed and fully submerged under salt water.. People around where I was who had gable or hip roofs lost them and only the concrete roof above my head saved the house and me as the ocean met the house. You do not want that experience on your bucket list as for when I reached back to DR Bayona I was a nervous wreck and well shook but the impact of that storm months before. I still think of the deaths and devastation  done in the wake of a Cat 5 or unofficial 6 or 7 I experienced. Two years later and the island has not recovered!

I cannot imagine the trauma or the experience.  Thank you for sharing and glad you are ok!

To lennoxnev,
Having been to so many devastated sites can you estimate the survival chances of a house made of cinder blocks with an 8” concert roof with tiles ?
All windows and doors have metal bars and I attach on them corrugated metal sheets with construction wire, 2 years ago.
I live on the North coast between Sosua and Cabarete with only 7-9 meters elevation.
Can you please advise me about the chances of the house surviving winds of 200-250 km/h.
No clue if the cinder block and coral rock surrounding fence will stand a huge water surge.
Thank you in advance for your time !
Florin

Florin, based upon what you have written, I would assess your property would be higher than a severe storm surge combined with high tide and waves.

A serious impact on the North Coast would need a fierce storm over the Atlantic being guided south westwards by a strong trough for example for maximum impact and those climatic circumstances have been rare iin past history. But that does noy mean it can't happen. An impact from a storm passing from the east or south east is more likely with land crossing or being on lesser side of the storm reducing impacts.

A masonry constructed building with conctete roof, if built well to codes, should weather very strong winds. Expect some damage to clay roof tiles in very high winds. Most small windows if fixed properly ( non corrosive fixings into solid masonry at max 300mm centres) will survive very strong winds but not blown impacts. Loose galvanised sheet attached to security bars create a greater danger imo if they come loose and would fly and cut like a gullotine to any person or animal. Fixing ply internally is an option to consider with security bars. Remember the pressure will be lower outside. I like the fabric hurricane protection now available.

Remember that water invariably causes the real damage. Plan to keep it out of the property and any furnishings off the floor and anything of value or electrical covered from water damage from walls or roof. Include clothing and fabrics.

What you have seen in Abaco is an extreme and I have colleagues now there working in Marsh Town and as persons who have seen many hurricanes they say the devistation is the worst they have seen through both wind and storm surge.

And the likelihood of that strong a storm hitting the North coast is very small.

I can't concur with that statement 'planner'.

Recent history has shown that major direct hits on the North Coast have been few but the length of coastline has received tropical storms with storm force winds and gusts of hurricane force, and people have died from landslides and flooding not to mention damage to property. The geography increases some of the hazards which are associated with tropical storms whilst protecting the area form the extreme wind effects from a storm approaching from the south east. But the worst storms, the Cape Verde variety have often tracked westwards close to or touching the north shore.

In longer term history there are records of Puerto Plata being hit by hurricanes so it is entirely possible going forward too.

Reality is that DR as a whole has not had an major hurricane hit for 20 years - Georges. And therefore, one could equally present an argument that the likelyhodd of a strong strom hitting DR is small based on recent history...but that would be very unwise advice. People are basing their advice that the North Coast is safe based upon a period of time double those 20 years or so, rather than several hundred years of records and now climate change.

We all must be on our guard and the notion that the North Coast is safe/protected  from hurricanes should be treated with extreme caution especially now the likleyhood of extreme hurricanes with winds over 175mph are becoming common.

And one positive for DR, is that often properties are built with masonry and concrete roofing and so should withstand the effects of severe winds. The effects of water is another matter and are one of the biggest problems with tropical storms and a killer on the North Coast.