Tracking Irma

oh get cash now ATM/ATH may not work for a few months and businesses are going to want everything in cash.

I have been told that panels can be mounted on flat roof, set to the proper angle based on latitude - 15 /20 degrees? -  when major storm threatens, they are moved to lay flat and bolted down.   You just gotta remember to lower them.

https://www.weather.gov/satellite#pr

That's the website for the satellite infrared shot of PR from NOAA, refreshes every 30 mins or so.

They are time stamped in Zulu time, Vets can dig it.

Irma just coming into view. EEEEWWWW Baby!!.

Gotta have Faith, Faith, Faith that she's going to head N when she reaches the Antilles as forecast. Because if she ignores the high pressure system that is supposed to turn her north and she rolls over the Northern Antilles into Turner Hole Canyon on her way to Guayama and Ponce, may need more then Faith, Faith, Faith to stop her from destroying PR.

Looking at the size of her, hard to imagine forces other then God could push her north at the last moment as if He wills her to avoid PR.

If you have Google Earth or similar, you can play with these two coordinates. It's the only coordinates NOAA has posted when the eye is forecast to be closest to PR. Rounded off for simplicity, she's currently at 18N 62W now. Play with these: predicted in a few days to be at 19N 64W. Draw an imaginary line from that one to 20N 70W when she is east of the DR. 

Closest to PR is 100+ miles out and growing. Save you the time, 1 degree = 111 km.

"Gotta Have Faith Faith Faith"

George Michael 1987.   Album: Faith. 20,000,000 sold..

This is a website you all might want to keep an eye on -

Tropical Tidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Right now it isn't looking good for Puerto Rico. Hunker down.

ReyP wrote:

oh get cash now ATM/ATH may not work for a few months and businesses are going to want everything in cash.

They get that up and running pretty fast, at least that's my experience after Jeanne (2004) and Irene (2011).
3-4 months for certain areas to get power back is really bad. I knew the electrical grid wasn't in the best state but this is just insane.

@ 2300 hs NOAA Advisory jacked the flag to a Hurricane Warning up from the earlier Hurricane Watch, as expected. Mostly no change from prior Advisory 4 hs ago, other then current Advisory now quoting possible rain totals for PR: 3-6", 10" isolated situations.

She needs to start heading N after 0200 Tuesday to conform with all of the Models and to commence getting PR's eyes out of the headlights. Forecast is for her to advance 2 degrees north by Wed at 1400, app 220 km, 135 miles, in 36 hs.

If she does, fair to predict based on NOAA models that PR will only get whipped by Tropical Storm winds, not to minimize Tropical Storm winds, but not a direct landing on PR like Jeanne in 2014 or Irene in 2011.

Irma still mowing West, the turn to the north that should have started isn't there yet..

Hi-resolution of Irma, the first visible pic from today.
It's a monster hurricane...



Click here for a large version.
To the left you see the outlines of the islands Guadeloupe, Dominca and Martinique.

Clearest one I've seen, and scariest. Gary is correct hasn't moved N, only moved W since 8pm.

NOAA bumped it to a CAT 5 on the SS scale, 175 mph winds.

Supposed to start heading N up to .50 degrees so app 50 km by 2pm.

NOAA has announced an unscheduled Full Advisory starting 0800 EST, so right now.

NOAA 0800 Advisory actually not much new from previous relating to PR.

But, now a Cat 5 and PR rain anticipated up from yesterday 3-6" to now 4-8" .

She traveled 2.7 degrees west since 8pm. The eye currently at 16.7N-57.7W

Still bearing W but forecast to start moving N this evening.

Not sure that a move north will help unless it plans to do a 90 degree turn. It is too close a 10 degree to 45 degree and it will hit pr either way, it takes too long to make a turn, I think it is too late for a turn, but....... I been wrong before.

I do not recall PR ever being hit by a Cat 5 before, and the damage to infrastructure is going to be real high. Fortunately most people now days live in a concrete house. Farm animals may not do well.

Sitka, I would suggest your friend moves to higher ground they are saying to evacuate coastal areas.

USCG wrote:

NOAA 0800 Advisory actually not much new from previous relating to PR.

But, now a Cat 5 and PR rain anticipated up from yesterday 3-6" to now 4-8" .

She traveled 2.7 degrees west since 8pm. The eye currently at 16.7N-57.7W

Still bearing W but forecast to start moving N this evening.

And then the Special Discussion which was posted 45 mins ago. In relevant parts as it relates to PR:

"KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.

2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical- storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early tomorrow."

Drawing a distinction, are they?

in #1:
"extremely dangerous cat 5" expected to affect NE Leewards

                                                                           vs
#2:
'"dangerous major hurricane" expected to affect the VI's y PR.

Weather Advisories are always measured word games, with a protocol.

Ain't good, measured or not.

ReyP wrote:

Sitka, I would suggest your friend moves to higher ground they are saying to evacuate coastal areas.

I spoke with him this AM.  He has a home up in the high ground.    At this point, it looks like the island is in for one hell of a storm.   There will be very extensive damage.

Rey, I'm with you, but that's their story and they're stickin to it.

None of the Model's spaghetti tracks have changed. Only the US Navy's model (NVGM) has been the most pessimistic in terms of closer proximity to PR, the only one that has had a markedly different track for Irma when it is nearest to PR, but to be fair to the others, NVGM is also predicting a northern swing.

The rest all bunched on top of the other predicting arriving north of the VI with the eye being 100-200 miles (+ or -) from Fajardo depending on the precise time.

Heavy winds and rain, not landfall.

U of Wisconsin has been a leader in satellite forecasting for some time. Yep U of W, Madison. They were also way ahead of the Zika pack. Dabble around their website, they have a page with all the spaghetti tracks from 20-25? models.

"That's My Story and I'm Stickin to It"

Collin Raye 1993   20 weeks on Country Billboard @  #6

Well we will know better by 3 or so this afternoon, I thank I read that they expect the north travel to start around 2 pm, don't quote me.

As bad as the Electrical system is in PR on a regular bases and with the Electric company saying that it may be 3-4 months before some areas may get power, that was with the storm far away north and as a cat 3 or 4. This is much stronger and if they are wrong about moving north early it could do a direct hit, maybe not the eye but the center section.

Hoping I am wrong, I think they are playing with dice.

Sitak, forecast for storm surge N Coast of PR now 3-5' up from 2-4'.

By my spaghetti post, I don't mean to imply the coast is clear. I think the best PR can hope for is heavy rain and only tropical storm winds but those alone are plenty to destabilize a coastal and mountainous region with notorious electrical problems even when skies are blue.

PS:

I am OUT for awhile, just got the call from the VA, I'm set for 2pm today, should be there a few days, put this off till retirement.

See y'all on the Top Side

Woke up to the news this morning that Hurricane Irma is now a Category 5. Wishing you all safety as you ride out this horrendous weather expected to hit tomorrow.

evacuation order for north shore beach issued

Keeping you all in our thoughts and prayers.  Hoping it passes without too much damage.  Stay safe!!!

So I think the only good thing happening right now is that as congress is going to be appropriating money for Harvey, Puerto Rico should be able to part of that whole recovery money deal...

Otherwise if it was just PR they would be looking for all kinds of excuses to not do the right thing..

Maybe I'm being too cynical... but I don't think so..

God Bless All...

Evacuation order has been in place, however in some cases where people are not mobile or children in the home, if the goverment thinks they are not safe, personnel has been given the perogative to force them out of the home and anyone interfeering can be arrested.

I still think it is going to hit the island, i dont see it moving north like they expect.

I have solar panels on my house, here  they are anchored in pretty well, let's how it goes:)

LarryJohnsonPR wrote:

I have solar panels on my house, here  they are anchored in pretty well, let's how it goes:)

maybe they can be laid down flat on the back, bolted down to secure?  better check   

Thanks to the replies on my question about Aguadilla.
My friends say our concrete houses on high ground should be fine.  But I am still antsy.

Talked to a couple people by phone there, they are getting ready.

I am hearing conflicting things.
That it pass  the island 40-60 miles off depending where you are located?

We will know for sure tomorrow. If people from Leeland/ Virgen island survived, we will too!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic … nts]Thanks to the replies on my question about Aguadilla.
My friends say our concrete houses on high ground should be fine.  But I am still antsy.

Talked to a couple people by phone there, they are getting ready.

I am hearing conflicting things.
That it pass  the island 40-60 miles off depending where you are located?

Try this: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic … e#contents

I like this one the most: https://www.weather.gov/satellite#pr (this one updates every 30 minutes, so I trust it more than the predictions).

Last I heard the eye of the storm is to pass 33-37 miles from San Juan and a little closer than that to Culebra. Orinal predictions were for140 miles from San Juan and at every update the eye gets closer to the island and San Juan. They expected the storm to start heading north but it has only moved north .2 degrees in the last 8 hours, so it may pass a lot closer than what they keep predicting / guessing. A new update at 8 pm from the government and maybe another at 11, but definitely another at 2 am or something like that but I will be in bed.

If concrete house should be fine, your windows, and doors who knows? I recommend passing it in the bathroom which has the smallest window in the house and has a door that can help deflect or stop debris that may enter the house. A dime size rock can hurt you bad at that speed.

The NHC forecast still keeps it a little north of PR and I trust the NHC experts.
The latest track should keep Irma like 65 miles north of my house and that makes a huge difference.
The locations that are going to get the strongest winds are Culebra and Fajardo.
The North West and the South West should not get more than tropical storm force winds.

All the above, of course, IF the track stays like it is now. a 30, 40 mile wobble to the south will make a he!! of a difference.

Anyway, we're as ready as we can be and we're going to ride it out.

Thanks again Rey for the info.
House has older metal shutters and two doors facing towards the ocean...
I am actually in California right now monitoring the situation. Plan to go back in a couple weeks to start doing some updates with the property.
Hopefully it won't turn into a more expensive project after irma.   

We woke up like at 6:30 because the power was gone. (in a boarded up house it stays pretty much dark )
Power came back though and that's a nice surprise, let's see how long it will last.

Meanwhile (11:30 AM) the first rain bands are here and the wind is picking up a little bit.

I'm home, steady as she goes.

Best source for PR now is

http://www.weather.gov/sju/

That's the US Weather Service hub for all of PR on a daily basis and really focusing on Irma PR of course

Close in satellite pic of PR in color refreshing every 10 mins or so on the "JUA" link, and full current data on the "Potential Impact" link.

NOAA has been remarkably accurate except for the models called for the eye to go above and around the VI's and then on toward PR.

Looks like it isn't going to go that far north.

Now looks like St Thomas' furniture is going to be rearranged.

Looks like that means a louder hola to PR after her adios to the USVI.

Thanks so much for the helpful link! Prayers are with you all to be safe out there in Puerto Rico. Watching this storm very closely from NYC as our family and friends are on the island.

Hey Raven, U belong in PR--next week and thereafter.

Yep, an EWW (Extreme Wind Warning) and take cover now order just out for the USVI's.

That's the loudest our authorities will yell in these situations.

Jacked the surge prediction for PR. North Coast 7-11' if at high tide, 4-6' south coast.

Of any of the stats past few days, that one freaks me the worst.

We now can't get in contact with anyone in PR. My family is in northern Puerto Rico (Barceloneta and Manati). If anyone has any information on this area please share.

Check the news. Power and Internet probably down. If they have local phone plan that's probably out too.

ravenmickey wrote:

We now can't get in contact with anyone in PR. My family is in northern Puerto Rico (Barceloneta and Manati). If anyone has any information on this area please share.

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations … des/latest

Raven, I know Barceloneta. It's the surge level predicted for the north coast that worries me for that sea level area.

My guess that won't happen until Irma is passed PR. 

If concurrent with a high tide, levels predicted may be reached.

You can google about surge levels and how far inland they go per foot of surge, lots of data. But lots of variables.

it would be great if you knew what was going on, it's hard not knowing of course.

But they are smart and they know probably best to get higher via Rt 149 to Ciales area or 140 to Florida area.

Above is the tide chart for SJ, but it'll be the same for Manati give or take a very short time.