Strike on May 1st??

Last I heard they are telling people to stay home and not participate in their work. Seems to be unions for public service.

Thanks @ReyP....So from what I understand..we might want to prepare almost the same as for a hurricane???

People will stay away from work and go on strike, the government has 13,000 police at the ready.
Stay out of Metro areas, try not to travel that day, the strike may end up closing some roads and cause major delays. Do not expect to do anything with the goverment that day, take care of it a few days prior.

Thanks! 😊

I will agree with Rey, stay away from the metro area on that day. The latest protests had been confrontational and you don't want to be around that mess.

A good reminder of why I'm glad I left PR.

Bull, I bet you miss it.

Like the protest in the mainland are any better?

Haha ReyP, I do sometimes miss being there physically. I always miss the family and the food!

I don't miss living there though, sadly. As you know, ReyP, I once was passionately in love with PR...

Adlin: Good point but in the States they're much less frequent unless you live in Berkeley. When I lived in Panama, they were weekly (and nasty). PR seems to be getting more like Panama in the bad ways but not in any of the good ways (e.g., over a decade ago, Panama streamlined their company law to allow for someone to start a business via one governmental portal - all licenses, certificates and taxes dealt with instantly - viola!).

Besides, I live in the Germanic part of Switzerland now, which is, sometimes frustratingly, the exact opposite of living in a Latin country. On the upside, there would never be a protest blocking public thoroughfares here - impossible! Nor would there be any whinging from governmental employees. And there sure as hell wouldn't be an debt, which is basically viewed as a mortal sin by the Swiss.

AEE employees are on strike this morning. They blocked Ave Kennedy towards San Juan and apparently making their way toward the Capital. They're protesting because their benefits are being reduced.

Once 938 passes it will be a moot point. We have the single employer law and the reduced benefits going into place. Depending on how savings goes, probably in October, the federal control board may enact big layoffs and the elimination of the Christmas bonus to make up the difference. Those two were part of the plan but the governor convinced them to be depending on savings in other areas. If the savings don't occur then the two steps are then activated and boy are they going to bitch!!!

Workers of Pepsi and Coca Cola are joining the stappage and demostration.

ReyP wrote:

Once 938 passes it will be a moot point. We have the single employer law and the reduced benefits going into place. Depending on how savings goes, probably in October, the federal control board may enact big layoffs and the elimination of the Christmas bonus to make up the difference. Those two were part of the plan but the governor convinced them to be depending on savings in other areas. If the savings don't occur then the two steps are then activated and boy are they going to bitch!!!

If you follow the way it is going, these two are imminents. The government just doesn't want to implement everything at one, but it is just a matter of time. This was supposed to be done by last administration. I am sure if the other party had won the same route would had to be taken. Unfortunately, at the end the people is the one that will pay the consequences of bad administrations.

NomadLawyer wrote:

Adlin: Good point but in the States they're much less frequent unless you live in Berkeley. When I lived in Panama, they were weekly (and nasty). PR seems to be getting more like Panama in the bad ways but not in any of the good ways (e.g., over a decade ago, Panama streamlined their company law to allow for someone to start a business via one governmental portal - all licenses, certificates and taxes dealt with instantly - viola!).

This is true, but almost seems part of the accepted process.  When the indigenous people are upset at a new hydro dam or something else, they block the Pan-American Highway and when construction workers have a beef they flood downtown Panama City.  Everything returns to normal after a day or so.  Violence is like PR I'm guessing  - very nasty in the drug community but not common among the general population, save and except theft.  Not to belittle the legitimate complaints of the Panamanians, the economy has been on a tear for at least a decade now.  As you know, the construction activity is at a pace unseen in most countries.  The result is an impressive skyline of new towers and decades of "full employment" (and I'm not talking about "full employment" b.s. the way the Fed defines it).  If a Panamanian wants a job, he or she has many opportunities.   Several years ago the President decided Panama City needed a subway system.  Boom.  A few later it's in place, operating and continually being expanded.  Imagine the decades of studies and political b.s. that would entail in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Bottom line to me is that Panama is an improving economy with an improving infrastructure and modern amenities.  I'm afraid that PR's worst days are still ahead of it.

President Trump's quote in the news today:

"As part of the budget negotiations, Democrats have called for financial support to prop up Puerto Rico's Medicaid program covering health insurance for the poor, but many Republicans are opposed to the idea.

'I don't think that's fair to the people of Iowa, and I don't think it's fair to the people of Wisconsin and Ohio and North Carolina and Pennsylvania that we should be bailing out Puerto Rico for billions and billions of dollars," Trump said. " No I don't think that's fair.' "

The politicians in PR are counting their chicks before they hatch, it is looking less likely that PR will get their Medicaid / Obamacare money.

I agree that things will get worse before they stabilize and then start getting better. We already lost over 1/2 million people in the island in the last 10 years, we are going to see the exodus increase during the next 3-5 years, maybe another 1/2 million in my opinion. Hard to live in a country where there are few jobs, very high competition, where pay is much lower than in the states and where new taxes seem to be growing like the weeds.

ReyP wrote:

We already lost over 1/2 million people in the island in the last 10 years, we are going to see the exodus increase during the next 3-5 years, maybe another 1/2 million in my opinion.

Could be more if you ask me..

In Lares, Guánica, Peñuelas, Fajardo, Mayagüez, Las Marías, Yauco, Ponce, Ceiba, and San Juan, for instance, the population has fallen between 12 and 13 percent since 2010

From an editorial in El Nuevo DiA (in English) http://www.elnuevodia.com/english/engli … e-2315262/

You guys made the BBC news - looked pretty grim.

Where is the report?
The BBC app does not show anything recent related to Puerto Rico.

I guess it was on TV?
On the BBC website & app there's a profile of PR, posted about two weeks ago. There's a pic of Pedro Rosello where they should have posted a pic of Ricky. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-17139243

2 mistakes I saw, the picture of the governor and the statement that in 2012 the island selected statehood in the referendum. While 60% voted that they did not wanted to remain a colony, only 40% of the 60% voted for statehood. Which leaves 40% wanting to remain a colony and of the ones that voted for a change, 60% did not vote for statehood, most of the people did not select a particular status, they simply voted against being a colony. It is a miss representation of the numbers by the PNP, congress agreed that the numbers did not reflected a clear selection for statehood, that is why they requested a new referendum which for now is scheduled for June 11 2017. This time the vote will be for a single choice, either statehood, colony, independence/sovereign country. This time is a single mark, so it will be much clearer what the will of the people is.

Good point, ReyP. In my mind, even if statehood wins a majority, if it is not an overwhelming majority (which I doubt it would be), it would be unwise for the US to add PR as a state. It's not healthy to add a state to the union where a sizable percentage of the population rejects such a status. It would be yet another corrosive factor in the US's deteriorating sense of collective civic responsibility.

It seems to be difficult to define the choices in a (non-binding) plebiscite.
When the PPD is in charge they come up with choices that are never going to happen like the infamous "enhanced commonwealth" which according to the US senate is not a viable option or another of their favorites: "none of the above" (Sila Calderon)

Now with the PNP in power they wanted to limit the choice to statehood or independence/free association but DC told them in order to get the federal funding (for the plebiscite) the option "territory", like the status is now, should be included.

Meanwhile the PPD is going to boycott the upcoming plebiscite. It could backfire..

It would be refreshingly cool if the PR political parties would redefine their priorities to getting PR back up and running instead of the eternal fight about status. I personally  think that the GOP controlled congress in DC is not really interested to do anything about the status of PR (unless they have a chance to get rid of us by making us independent).

In the real world (as opposed to "Status La La Land") the people of Puerto Rico are going to pay the price for the financial problems and those who can pack their bags and leave for the mainland.  It doesn't look good for many and there's no light visible yet at the end of the tunnel.

The tremendous exodus of people from the island to the US makes me wonder how the vote would go if they had never had the option of leaving. Would reform have happened like SawMan points out it did in Panama? Would those people who fled have been more likely to vote for statehood? I suppose we'll never know.

Regarding the Republicans in Congress going along with PR statehood, I think it could happen but would require an even more unlikely compromise: breaking up an existing US state like California to create a Republican-likely state to balance out the almost certain two additional Dem senators resulting from PR statehood.

NomadLawyer wrote:

The tremendous exodus of people from the island to the US makes me wonder how the vote would go if they had never had the option of leaving. Would reform have happened like SawMan points out it did in Panama? Would those people who fled have been more likely to vote for statehood? I suppose we'll never know.

There are a number of contradicting forces at play, aren't there? 

As the PR economy worsens and infrastructure and government services deteriorate, the more and more taxpaying workers and businesses leave or close.  As workers leave and businesses close, the PR economy, etc. worsen at a faster rate of decline.  Cycle continues.

Similarly, regarding statehood, as the PR economy worsens and infrastructure and government services deteriorate, the more remaining residents will want statehood, however, this will become less and less likely as whatever little mainland support exists for doing so will decline.

Very long explanation of how things are going and how they came to be!

This non-binding plebiscite is going to be very interesting.

I do believe it is a waste of time and money, way toooooo early, since it is not likely that congress will act on the results for the next 10-15 years, which means that a binding one will be needed with in 2 years of congress deciding to act on it or not. They already stated that the 2012 one was not very clear and that too much time has passed to take into consideration the possible will of the people as it probably would have changed in all that time.

The current administration being republican is not likely going to act on it either. While the finance department in the US recommended the Island be given 900 million for Medicaid, PR asked for 538 minimum and the republicans offered 145. If they would not deal with the medicaid issue, it is highly unlikely that congress would consider bringing in a new state that is mostly democrat, and it is poorer than Mississippi. For any chance of acceptance, it would have to be a democrat president with a democratic controlled congress that would consider it assuming they are in power at that time.

A large number of the population is poor (over 45%) and for decades they have been voting for a system that will give them money and more and more of them have become dependent. This group can tilt the balance big time, they could vote for Statehood or for continuing being a colony because both systems will likely continue the dependency they grown used to over the last 5-6 decades.

The last plebiscite was confusing in its wording, it asked the people if they were tired of the old colonial (ELA) system as its first question and then asked if they were tired of it which system they would prefer, Statehood or independence. The idea was that first you voted to remove the old system and then pick which system instead they wanted. This was confusing to the people, most (60%) of those that voted for a change, never voted for either of the two alternatives. Statehood end up with with a vote of about 30 percent of all the people who voted in that Plebiscite. So each voter was supposed to vote for two questions and the majority only voted for 1 question (tired of the old system),

The original new plebiscite which was drafted by the PNP (party that wants statehood) received a lot of flag from the other two parties that did not liked how it was originally structured, but since the PNP has the governor chair and are the majority on both chambers, they ignored everyone else and passed their idea of the plebiscite law. The idea was that colonial status was not to be included, this was to be a selection between one form of independence (independence or free association) as one choice or Statehood. They were counting that people would be scared of voting for any type of independence because they would be afraid of a totalitarian system like the one in Venezuela. Which in their mind would result in overwhelming votes for statehood. This was their master stroke and in their mind this was a sure thing. The plebiscite was intended by the PNP to be a vote for one single choice of status, some form of independence or statehood (JA_JA).

However the US justice department needed to bless the Plebiscite wording and options and without that the results would not be recommended to congress for action. So they had zero choice but to submit the papers to the Justice department or not have it recognized. Plus they could get 2.5 million for it along with the blessing.

As it turns out the justice department had a different point of view, they did not liked the wording "Statehood is the only choice that guaranties your US citizenship now and into the future". Justice department said that was false, the current colonial status also guaranties it and it would also be possible that under some form of independence it could be also negotiated. They also stated that all living Puerto Ricans as US citizens and that would not change regardless of which choice the voters selected, even as independent nation they would still remain US citizens as long as they were born before the change.

The justice department also did not liked that the current colonial status was not one of the options, the government was forcing a change of status which may not reflect the will of the people. So they insisted that the current colonial status be also a choice.

The above made the PPD very happy since they want PR to remain a colony and negotiate some additional freedoms in the future. The independence party was pissed, because they were counting on the majority of the PPD to join them in Independence in order to have sufficient numbers to defeat statehood. The PNP that wants PR to be a state was also super pissed because they could no longer force the people to select statehood because of their fear for independence. So most of the parties were unhappy except the PPD.

The PNP did not give up on their situation, they decided to spread the misery, after some big time grumbling they sat down and changed the law, they eliminated the wording about citizenship in its entirety, and added wording about colonial status and a column to vote for it as requested by the justice department. The new trick was to describe the current colonial status in a somewhat negative way and eliminated the name of the current status "Estado Libre Asociado", which is the current colonial form of government and which has a very specific constitution ratified by the US and by PR. Needless to say they pushed this thru against the will of the party that in 1952 brought it to the people and congress for ratification.

So now you have a new law that absolutely none of the parties is happy with and you have a grinning PNP because the form of colonial being voted for may not be the form that is currently in place and because they managed to pissed the PPD party.

This new language and choices were resubmitted to the justice department and currently they have not yet acted on it. This means that the date of June 11 is at risk since there may not be sufficient time to print the ballots and "Educate" the people. The PNP is is a real crunch here for time now.

Prior to the 2012 Plebiscite where the results were very confusing because of the way the questions were put to the people, the vote was normally split around 5% for independence and 46% ELA, 44% Statehood. Many times the independent people would vote for the ELA in order to make sure statehood would not win.

The result on the PPD with all these changes and going back and forth with the justice department has resulted in a severely split PPD, you have some that wanted to vote for independence with the idea of creating a free associated state at an October vote and those that remain with the idea of continuing the colonial state (ELA). Several board members have been ousted and things look like may result soon into a fist fight. By severely weakening the PPD, there is still a good chance that statehood may win.

Since the other two parties 9PIP and PPD) have been left hanging or with a knife on their back or split, they have both declared a boycott which if successful, would mean that mostly only the people wanting statehood would show up to vote. This is very risky.

There are 1.6 million registered voters or so, of which about 60% show up to vote on average, so we can count on about 960,000 possible votes. However the split in the past has been around 45% pro statehood, so if we calculate that we are talking about 432,000 pro statehood will be voting plus a few not obeying the boycott which I estimate as 20,000, that means that about 452,000 votes will be casted in total during the June Plebiscite.

If we disregard that the number of people registered to vote is around 1.6 million and assuming that only a few of the PIP and PPD show up to vote, then about 452,000 will show up to vote and statehood will likely win with about 95% of the votes casted. The PNP is hopping that the Justice department and congress will certify the vote and therefore official ask for statehood....... But will it?

If we do not disregard the number of people registered to vote (1.6 million) and look at the total number of vote casted of 452,000, then things can be interpreted differently. The other parties (PIP and PPD) know this and are hopping that the Justice department and the congress will view this as not representative of the will of the people (vote participation of around 25% of registered voters), and as such the Plebiscite would be declared null and void. This is what the could happen also.

As you see this is very complicated, people are still going by party lines and it will be up to the justice department and congress to accept the vote or not. But even if accepted it does not mean congress will act on the results.

So it is a mess!!!!!

Hope you took the time to read the whole thing, my numbers as guest work based on previous Plebiscites and could be WAY off.

Thanks
Rey

NomadLawyer wrote:

....the almost certain two additional Dem senators resulting from PR statehood.

I said this before, many people in the lower 48 seem to be convinced that PR would be a blue state.  They base this on the presumption that "Hispanics" vote democratic. That may be the case over there.
Here on the island you'll find a lot and I mean a lot of people who are pretty conservative in their opinions. Look for instance at how many people opposed the same sex marriage.
I wouldn't be surprised if a majority here would vote Republican.

It would be interesting if somebody would try to find out how Puerto Ricans would vote instead of assuming they would vote Democratic.

ReyP wrote:

Very long explanation of how things are going and how they came to be!

Wow! Lot of work you put in this, Rey.
Thanks, it explains the story to people who are not familiar with the PR status issue.

Gary wrote:

ReyP wrote:

Very long explanation of how things are going and how they came to be!

Wow! Lot of work you put in this, Rey.
Thanks, it explains the story to people who are not familiar with the PR status issue.

Yes that was the intent, many in this forum have been in PR for very little time and do not yet understand the way the population vote or why they vote that way.

Everyone is assuming statehood will pass, I am not sure but I do find it likely.

The issue with the debt, the way wall street is pushing the president and congress, the layoffs, how wall street colluded with the PR politicians to steal all that money, all the new and higher taxes, the perception that congress does not really want a PR state, the statement from some congress men about forcing English in Schools, court system and goverment and the Puerto Rican pride, may end up becoming negatives about statehood. So I would not count on another star yet.

On the flip side, people in PR are sick and tired of the politicians of all parties and their broken promises and the corruption. Some think that somehow magically if PR becomes a state it will all change and people will somehow vote for better leaders and less corrupt politicians, good luck wit that.

Those living in the states have already learned English and are living based on the customs of the mainland, they get better pay and are making ok, but they do not count since they can not vote in the Plebiscite.

As to attitudes about republicans vs democrats today, it depends on who you ask. If you ask the middle class, they are likely to lean republican, but 45% of the population is poor and they tend to vote Democrat.

Florida is an interesting state, Cubans which are well stablished in Florida and other states are heavily Republican, they have businesses and a thriving community, many were well to do back in the old times in Cuba until the revolution took everything away from them and are heavily against any normalization between the US and Cuba. In Florida based on previous elections, the Puerto Ricans has consistently voted Democrat and have been very much for Hillary and her Husband Bill in previous elections. SO based on the high poverty level and the ways Puerto Ricans have been voting in the state of Florida and also New York, I have to say that PR is likely to end up as a democrat state.

But first people have to vote for statehood and Congress has to decide to grant it, it is a mood point for now and only important for polls conducted by both parties in the mainland.

Interesting read, the latest from the NY Times.  https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/0 … .html?_r=0

My bet is congress will not approve statehood for a poor democratic island.

Also, with statehood comes federal income taxes - do the voters realize that?  Do they want more taxes??

Seems like the more things change - the more they stay the same.  😩

Hi there!

I'm currently on vacation in Arecibo and our flight leaves tomorrow from San Juan at 2:15pm.

Do you know which roads are being closed?

We are planning to leave extremely early but I wasn't sure if they had mapped out the areas in where the protest will be taking place.

Hi there!

I'm currently on vacation in Arecibo and our flight leaves tomorrow from San Juan at 2:15pm.

Do Antoine know which roads are being shut down tomorrow?

We are planning to leave extremely early but I wasn't sure if they had mapped out the areas in where the protest will be taking place.

Sitka wrote:

My bet is congress will not approve statehood for a poor democratic island.

Also, with statehood comes federal income taxes - do the voters realize that?  Do they want more taxes??

Seems like the more things change - the more they stay the same.  😩

Basically people are being told that federal will be minimal or none for the poor as they would fall under the minimum. Since the poor make up close to 50%, people are not too worried.

Trump new plan of raising the personal exception, if passed would raise personal exception to 16,000 if filling singly or 30,000 for a join return. If passed this would elimate federal taxes on a lot of families.

I am more worried about the language issue, students will be taught in English, no option there, courts will be run in English and the goverment and all legal papers would have to switch to English. A good chunk of the population will have difficulties dealing with the system and having to pay for a translator. The first 25 years will be hard on the people.

Connolly00659 wrote:

Hi there!

I'm currently on vacation in Arecibo and our flight leaves tomorrow from San Juan at 2:15pm.

Do you know which roads are being closed?

We are planning to leave extremely early but I wasn't sure if they had mapped out the areas in where the protest will be taking place.

Hard to say, but I do not think it will affect the airport itself. However traveling over the north roads in places like Bayamon, Hato Rey, and Santurce are likely to be affected. Depending on the hour you may see no issue other than normal heavy traffic due to being a work day for the rest of the people. You could try to get past the metro area before 8 am (leave by 6:30 am at the latest for close to zero effect from the stoppage), then find a place to stay in the Isla Verde area (not Condado which may see some issues) and rest until it is close to the flight. Spending 10 hours in the airport will be hard, so get a motel and arrive early for a nap is my advice.

My understanding is that some of the people will leave from UPR Rio Piedras and other points and concentrate at the JFC offices in Hato Rey and likely government offices in San Juan. Most of this will start around 9 am while the main event will be at noon. I have seen zero on particular roads.

Some towns are also going to support them by holding some small demonstrations in support, for example the mayor in Caguas have called for a local demonstration.

The walk is to start around 10 am so I expect people will start gathering around 8 am and making ready.
The main demonstration will be in Hato Rey in from of the JFC offices in Avenida Muñoz Rivera.

Teachers union are not allowed to participate in the strike, but they will not cross any picket lines. Retired teachers can participate and in some cases may picket some schools.

The Federal Board can go to the court and have it order a stop to the strike with employees subject to disciplinary actions including  layoff if they disobey the order. As of yet there is no word that the JSF will try to go to court to stop the strike, nor have the government made such decision either. If however the work stoppage is extended more than 1 day, the government and the board may take action.

No power in Rio Grande area since around 5 am...strike related?

In a surprise move, students created a human chain partially blocking access to  the airport. Only one lane of traffic is open causing major delays on the road. Some people are getting out of taxis and walking into the aiport grounds because of the traffic jam. Police may try to remove the students or arrest them, no word yet.

Update: see video http://www.elnuevodia.com/noticias/loca … o-2316496/

Another update: students leaving, as of 7:30 traffic was  beginning to flow