Thoughts on the Brexit vote?

Vicces1 wrote:

How will this affect you?

If the Scots do not leave the UK, and if the UK and the EU does not agree to good trade terms, it might make my Scotch whiskey a bit more expensive.

Other than that, I see no real long term loss with the UK leaving the EU. I always found the special status the UK asked on several issues with the EU (such as adopting the Euro, immigration, pensions, etc), gave me the feeling that the UK was never really fully on the side of "team Europe". A half hearted player, especially one expecting special treatments, is perhaps better removed from the team.

Vicces1 wrote:

Does it mean anything to your daily business / lifestyle?

No. None.

Vicces1 wrote:

Do you think any other countries will consider leaving?

A complex question. I think that ultra right wing parties will try to grab this event to bolster their own agenda, no doubt. Sadly, nationalism, nativism, ethnocentrism and xenophobia are on the rise around the world. And even more unfortunate, Europe has a long history that when such forces consume nations in Europe the result is a lot of dead people.

Vicces1 wrote:

Will Scotland leave the UK?

I do not know.

But if the English can be so egocentric so as to plunge the western world, fiscal markets and EU political stability into maybe years of uncertainty, then I support Scotland leaving the UK, if for no other reason than to be equally egocentric to get my Scotch without the threat of tariffs. 

Vicces1 wrote:

Do you think the remaining EU countries will make it more difficult for England now?!

This has a lot to do with Germany, since it is, for better or worse, the economic EU leader.

German politicians are "talking tough" now, but in the end the UK is a valued trade partner for Germany. So many German companies will surely lobby to the end effect that I doubt the EU will end up being as "strict" on terms with the UK as they now claim.

But that also means, such a result could trigger other countries, that have less fiscal value to Germany, to also leave the EU thinking they will get similar terms, and then getting a rude awaking, learning too late, they do not really matter that much to Germany. In short, politicians are really not good at long term thinking and more often than not will cause more problems, then solutions, for their own countries.

What Klsalle said pretty much sums it up!

I would not panic in any case either way, the game is already played out behind the scenes, no one's vote really matters, the powers that be will do what they want one way or the other.
In other words, the game is rigged.

When I was thinking of whether this would have specific impact to Hungary, my thought process was.... The UK is a net provider of EU funds. Hungary is a large receiver of funds. With less funding of the EU, Hungary will receive less as well, thereby having an effect on the economy....

Hungary is among the Member States which receive the largest amounts of money from EU regional policy. Regional policy aims to reduce the economic, social and territorial disparities between Europe's regions and countries. For example, regional funds are improving traffic flows around Budapest's ring road. They are financing programmes which help disadvantaged children to catch up at school. Regional funds are also helping Morahalom to create a cleaner environment with a new heating system which uses geothermal energy; they also support Hungary in retaining its researchers thanks to long-term research projects.
- http://ec.europa.eu/budget/mycountry/HU/index_en.cfm

I have many friends in the UK. Talking to them they are worried about many issues. I personally feel the UK is strong and will do just fine. I feel they wanted to exit in order to increase the ability to do more business with China which is a growing economy and less with USA which is a decreasing economy. Also most UK people i have talked too have been worried with EU being too close to USA (TTIP, Nato etc) and Germany's growing dominance of Europe as a whole.

As far as other countries many of my friends i know in other EU states have said they are worried that now UK is gone there is no one to stand up to Germany, France in their behalf and that they will be pushed around by them.

Yes all feel 100% Scotland will vote and should and should leave! All the Scots i know feel that extremely so.

N Ireland i feel might attempt to join to Ireland and i feel that would be a good thing for them to do so.

Other than as i said having friends threw out the UK this does not personally effect me. I do plan on visiting England early next year but i do not think that would be an issue even still.

The friends i have in Scotland are telling me that when they say when, Scotland leaves UK then Scotland will decide it own immigration terms for USA separate from what the rules were that England set up when they were UK. And they feel that Scotland would make it easier for USA people to live there.(Uk does not have long stay visa or permit for retired people or elective visas. Hungary does which is why my father who is retired and me who does not work live here.) So could that effect me personally? Hmm maybe. We have been in Hungary for 6 mos now and plan on living here for many years at least 3 if not longer. Hungary offers many advantages that UK does not. Even if we could live there legally.

Hungary has enough natural resources, intelligent people and drive to be independent for once in history.
Larger countries have always been sticking their noses into HU affairs and taking more then giving to Hungary and it's people.
Any benefits being part of the EU were only helping the wealthy and large corp.
Perhaps the brain drain will stop in Hungary, people will come home with outside experiences and build a new Hungary that helps all Hungarians and not just the 1%.
My interests are only for Hungary and the former eastern block countries.

Vicces1 wrote:

Hungary is among the Member States which receive the largest amounts of money from EU regional policy.

I think this blog post summed it all up well:

http://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/ssees/2016/06/08 … u-funding/

Especially in this comment:

"Transparency International asserts that almost every project funded by the EU in Hungary continues to be afflicted by some level of corruption.  Indeed, such is the scale of the inflow of EU money into Hungary that the government is struggling to spend all of the money allocated. It is, therefore, not overly concerned with spending the money in the most efficient manner possible with one estimate suggesting that it is spending EU money, on average, at about 25 percent over the market rate."

In other words, if Hungary receives less, it should not matter much *if* the government stops wasting funds and deals with corruption and cronyism. Especially on projects like:

http://www.portfolio.hu/en/economy/eu_a … 31451.html

But, also as the blog points out, sadly, corruption and cronyism seem so built into the system here, I doubt this will actually change. And the EU funding actually contributes to the local tendency to not change (I have lots of personal stories to relate about grants in Hungary, and what a real disaster many have been for the country as a whole by establishing unsustainable infrastructures -- but I will not get into that here or now).

So the end result will be those programs that deserve funding, especially in education, research, environmentalism, or any area that a politically connected crony can not figure out an easy way to wrangle money from the project, probably will be the first to feel a financial pinch. And of course the politicians will blame external sources for this, even though when pointing a finger they ignore the fact three fingers are pointing back at themselves.

I have a thirteen-year-old son. In five years' time he may well want to go to university in Britain. Since we are not UK residents, being resident in Hungary, we will now have to pay full cost fees chargeable to overseas students in general. How will we be able to afford this on our Hungarian salaries/ my UK teachers' pension? I have no idea.

FeliciaOni wrote:

China which is a growing economy and less with USA which is a decreasing economy.

For what it is worth, according to http://www.tradingeconomics.com, GDP Growth Rate for both China and the USA declined in the first quarter of this year versus the previous quarter. But both were still in positive territory. And in fact, the slowing of the Chinese economy is causing a lot of countries that exported raw materials to China a lot of fiscal grief sending some toward recession and political turmoil.

Or in other words, and in short, economics, and many other issues, are far, far more complicated than many voters understand, or think they understand. And why it is becoming easier to sway them with misinformation and simplistic (not uncommonly wrong) slogans and platitudes. As I think was done during the Brexit campaign.

FeliciaOni wrote:

and Germany's growing dominance of Europe as a whole.

And they may have a point.

Just saw on Reuters, Merkel saying:

"Quite honestly, it should not take ages, that is true, but I would not fight now for a short time frame"

Meanwhile, most of the founding members of the EU are asking the UK for a "quick divorce" to calm world wide panic and recession fears.

In short, it seems Merkel is trying to give Germany, and German businesses, a longer time to unwind themselves from the UK at the expense of Europe, the EU, and the whole, and entire darn planet. How Germanic, and selfish, is that? Lebensraum 2.0? (Side note: FWIIW, I am ethnically Germanic (mother's side), and even I am dismayed by this response from Merkel.)

And how ironic, and if not really extremely sad, Google noticed an uptick of queries from the UK as to what would happen if the UK left the EU, but only hours after the polls closed. Seems people did their research too late. Kind of a definition of our times.

And gettting the shock that most every professional economist said would happen, some are now, too late, expressing buyers remorse:

"Even though I voted to leave, this morning I woke up and I just — the reality did actually hit me," one woman told the news channel ITV News. "If I'd had the opportunity to vote again, it would be to stay."

My post is very political. But I hope the moderators let it remain, as this does affect everyone, including expats, and not just in Europe, but the entire planet it now seems.

HungaryDragon wrote:

I have a thirteen-year-old son. In five years' time he may well want to go to university in Britain. Since we are not UK residents, being resident in Hungary, we will now have to pay full cost fees chargeable to overseas students in general. How will we be able to afford this on our Hungarian salaries/ my UK teachers' pension? I have no idea.

If I were you, and assuming not something like medicine, I'd think about asking your son to consider doing a first degree in Europe - in Germany or Austria particularly. There are many courses in English and fees are extremely low.  They are far lower than the UK.  There's a problem with Master's degrees being expensive but if I was sending one of my kids to university now, I'd try and get them to do it in a lower cost country.  My two eldest have degrees from UK universities and they have debts between GBP 18-27K each.  I am quite OK for my youngest two to go a Hungarian, Austrian, Dutch or German university.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if your son is a dual EU national, then it would be reduced EU rates for the UK universities, not full rates, if using the non-UK passport.

Personally I think Brexit is overrated.  UK is too important economically for Brexit to mean much just now. In several years, it might mean something. 

There's no panic in the UK about  it although there's some buyer's remorse going on.  The panic is in Brussels because their cosy little empire has been threatened.  Despite the original EU founders saying UK should be out asap, this is just peevishness. 

No-one will railroad the UK into finalising the exit.  The UK is a stable economy and a stable democracy.  It's not going to fall apart.  I think the EU could fall apart instead. The UK has just done what many others would like to do.

A lot of people are still saying they are very happy with the result.  In fact, nearly everyone I know has said they voted out.  Based on that knowledge I am surprised it wasn't more of an outright victory.

I agree with Fluffy2560

UK will do just fine out of EU. I am sure they have plenty of tricks up their sleeve and will not suffer much. UK knows how to make money and they are an old strong country. Or if not then the next Guy Fawkes or Oliver Cromwell will str8n things out! He hee

I will not lie i really am not sure i know the true reason for the exit but it does so that they have much more democracy then in USA where i am from. There is no way Americans would be allowed to vote on something so important. We would get the ability to vote for someone that says they would look into or do something and then if they did not we would have no recourse to make them do it or even find someone that will.

So i am proud of the Brits!

Now what i have been hearing from the few Hungarians i do know, is that many of the Hungarians that live and work in UK are thinking of coming back to Hungary. Which they said is affecting them cause many members of the family were being supported by the Hungarian in UK sending money back to Hungary.

I have no idea how widespread that is just what i am hearing from Hungarians.

FeliciaOni wrote:

Now what i have been hearing from the few Hungarians i do know, is that many of the Hungarians that live and work in UK are thinking of coming back to Hungary. Which they said is affecting them cause many members of the family were being supported by the Hungarian in UK sending money back to Hungary.

I have no idea how widespread that is just what i am hearing from Hungarians.

I think this is just nonsense - it's all scaremongering, rumour and half-truths. 

It's always been the case that in the event of a positive Brexit  result anyone already there now is entitled to exercise their treaty rights and continue just as before.  Nothing has changed for them.  If limits on migration introduced, then it would only affect new arrivals after the date of the final divorce and maybe not even then.  Hungarians and anyone else who have been there legitimately and long enough can just apply for UK citizenship.  The residence period is relatively low - about 5 years I believe.

There's no issue with the UK and the EU, even now, Hungarians can go there to live and work.  It'll take at least 2 years before anything will happen.  Everything is the same.

More concerning is what happens the other way around as no-one has said much over here.

But after watching the Brexit results come in I had breakfast as usual.  I noticed the sun came up, the electricity works, the internet was still functioning and time/gravity/quantum physics still worked all as before.

That's how unimportant Brexit is right now. It'll get more important around October when the UK gets a new PM and a timetable appears.

Even Merkel has just said "there's no need to be nasty" !!!

FeliciaOni wrote:

We would get the ability to vote for someone that says they would look into or do something

Most US States have either an Initiative or referendum system to allow citizens to have a say in government via direct democracy. And unlike in the USA, where initiatives and referendums usually then directly become law, referendums in the UK, as per my understanding, are not legally binding, so legally, the Government can ignore them. So, potentially, not "so" democratic.

FeliciaOni wrote:

and then if they did not we would have no recourse to make them do it or even find someone that will.

Have you ever been to a local government meeting to voice your issues? That is how you can be directly involved in Government in a representative democracy. If you have, many kudos to you, since most people do not, but still somehow expect politicians to read their minds and do what the voter wants (because you can expect others are in fact lobbying if you do not). And in the worst case scenario, not actively participating in government, can end up with a lot of problems, which in the end, really is the fault of the apathetic electorate.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Despite the original EU founders saying UK should be out asap, this is just peevishness. 

No-one can railroad the UK into finalising the exit.

Nobody should railroad the UK to exit. But there can be pressure applied.

But now, IMHO, the UK's delay tactics are starting to look egocentric and selfish. As in it is looking like they want their cake (to remain in the common market as long as possible) and eat it too (take their sweet time exiting no matter what damage that may cause to others).

Trying to live in the same house during a divorce is a bad idea, as it can have very destructive consequences for all parties involved.

fluffy2560 wrote:

A lot of people are still saying they are very happy with the result.  In fact, nearly everyone I know has said they voted out.  Based on that knowledge I am surprised it wasn't more of an outright victory.

Basic sample theory would mostly refute calling this "knowledge". It is most likely those you know represent a bias sample, and any conclusions drawn from a biased sample are also thus biased and are then of questionable, and potentially of no real, value when compared to the actual population as a whole.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Even Merkel has just said "there's no need to be nasty" !!!

There is a second side of every coin:

If a room mate wants out, then they should go ASAP. Because that is the correct, polite and adult thing to do.

They should not delay departure, stick around and keep raiding the fridge.

fluffy2560 wrote:

But after watching the Brexit results come in I had breakfast as usual.  I noticed the sun came up, the electricity works, the internet was still functioning and time/gravity/quantum physics still worked all as before.

On 30 January 1933 an event happened in Europe, and still most people woke up in Europe, had breakfast as usual, the sun still came up, the electricity still worked, and time/gravity/quantum physics still worked all as before.

12 years later, in many parts of Europe and round the world, the sun still came up, but many people had nothing to eat for breakfast, lunch or dinner, the electricity did not work and quantum physics had displayed its destructive power, twice, half way around the world.

I have no crystal ball of course. And I am not fear mongering. Rather just pointing out it may be a bit of a cavalier claim that no impact today means anything. It may, or it may not, have long term and significant impacts. You may be right. Or you may be wrong.

klsallee wrote:

...12 years later, in many parts of Europe and round the world, the sun still came up, but many people h and quantum physics had displayed its destructive power, twice, half way around the world.

I have no crystal ball of course. And I am not fear mongering. Rather just pointing out it may be a bit of a cavalier claim that no impact today means anything. It may, or it may not, have long term and significant impacts. You may be right. Or you may be wrong.

Point taken.

Obviously the world continues to turn.  The EU is a human construct so things will go on the same, at least in the short term.

klsallee wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Despite the original EU founders saying UK should be out asap, this is just peevishness. 

No-one can railroad the UK into finalising the exit.

Nobody should railroad the UK to exit. But there can be pressure applied.

But now, IMHO, the UK's delay tactics are starting to look egocentric and selfish. As in it is looking like they want their cake (to remain in the common market as long as possible) and eat it too (take their sweet time exiting no matter what damage that may cause to others).

There are no delaying tactics, there's just the normal adjustment period as they come to policy decisions.  The UK stock markets hardly moved in any real sense - just normal fluctuation. All the other ones changed.

Anyway, President Juncker presides over an entirely undemocratic organisation. So it's a bit rich for him to come the high and mighty when the people of the UK have spoken.  Like he will make the agenda!  This is what the OUT campaigners voted against - interference by Brussels.

Anyway, the procedure is well documented. Article 50.  But that starts the clock.  At the moment they do not have anyone in the UK to press the start button.  In any case, they EU will probably not last the 2 years, the UK has to complete the process.  The thing will crumble.

The UK exit will empower a lot of people in other countries who are unhappy with the EU.
I have no clue how much support they have, but we'll be seeing more calls for independence. The first few have started, and I see a lot more joining in.

fluffy2560 wrote:

In any case, they EU will probably not last the 2 years, the UK has to complete the process.  The thing will crumble.

That's a possibility for the future, and a good few are likely to push the same way as the UK went, regardless of the short term problems it will cause.

The French referendum of 2005 indicated there is a very strong exit feeling in France, but no one has pushed the issue enough yet. I suspect there is at least one noted French politician who won't be off the phone much this week.

Alternative fur Deutschland, a new but powerful party, is also pushing for a referendum, something Merkel will dislike intensely.
If Germany gets a referendum, and the out vote wins, that'll be the final nail in the EU's coffin.
The the out vote loses narrowly, that could still finish off the EU as Germany will no longer be able to push forwards, having to hold back because the politicians know they have too little support; that and the Euro will drop through the floor at the first sniff of a vote in France or Germany,

2 years - Hmmm, maybe.

fluffy2560 wrote:

There are no delaying tactics, there's just the normal adjustment period as they come to policy decisions.

Sorry, but we will have to agree to disagree on this.

The "leave" campaign clearly did not expect to win. And they also clearly have no exit strategy. Which I find irresponsible, incompetent and ridiculous.

More and more of the exit political proponents are backpedaling on their claims during the campaign. It will be interesting to see how they will appease the electorate that believed their outlandish claims how the UK will benefit from an EU exit.

Sadly, a lot of people are going to be hurt by all this, but I am personally running out of popcorn watching the show....

fluffy2560 wrote:

The UK stock markets hardly moved in any real sense - just normal fluctuation. All the other ones changed.

The London FTSE dropped 8% on Friday, and clawed back to a 3.2% loss at the end of the day. It is down a further 1% today (as I write this). Calling that "normal fluctuations" is really a bit odd.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Anyway, President Juncker presides over an entirely undemocratic organisation.

The Swiss executive branch, the Federal Council, is elected by the  Federal Assembly not by direct suffrage. So, would you consider the Swiss also undemocratic? And before you answer, consider that Switzerland has the longest tradition of democratic government in Europe, while the UK is still, essentially (by tradition if nothing else), a Monarchy.....

fluffy2560 wrote:

Anyway, the procedure is well documented. Article 50.

Well, you got me there. I raise the white flag. An example of EU consensus politics that leads to ambiguous, and thus problematic, legislation. Little more than compete and utter EU confusion of their own making.

fluffy2560 wrote:

In any case, they EU will probably not last the 2 years, the UK has to complete the process.  The thing will crumble.

Sorry, I am not clear on what you mean. The exit process will crumble? The EU will crumble? Or other?

HungaryDragon wrote:

I have a thirteen-year-old son. In five years' time he may well want to go to university in Britain. Since we are not UK residents, being resident in Hungary, we will now have to pay full cost fees chargeable to overseas students in general. How will we be able to afford this on our Hungarian salaries/ my UK teachers' pension? I have no idea.

FWIIW - Germany and Sweden and others make available low-cost educational programs that are well-regarded and valuable globally, but without the backbreaking cost.  I was actually going to do a little middle-aged re-education and take 2 years off and go back to school myself in Germany, but alas, I am in a job I like currently and don't want to take the time off (yet!).

This is one of the many websites that may be able to help:
http://www.studyineurope.eu/

Vicces1 wrote:

Germany and Sweden and others make available low-cost educational programs that are well-regarded and valuable globally, but without the backbreaking cost.

I am amazed at some of the opportunities that some European countries provide for low cost higher education.

And it it is also smart: it is an investment into Europe's future.

But taking two years off is tough. Any options for "remote" learning?

klsallee wrote:

Vicces1 wrote:

Germany and Sweden and others make available low-cost educational programs that are well-regarded and valuable globally, but without the backbreaking cost.

I am amazed at some of the opportunities that some European countries provide for low cost higher education.

And it it is also smart: it is an investment into Europe's future.

But taking two years off is tough. Any options for "remote" learning?

I'll definitely be looking into it!
I'm a big believer in the idea that a mind that stops learning, starts dying.

klsallee wrote:

....But taking two years off is tough. Any options for "remote" learning?

Yes but can be as expensive as doing it full time.  Many Unis have distance learning or part time attendance systems. 

Masters degrees take about 3-4 years to do part time. Study time is about 2h per day for 6  months of the year.  It's quite a commitment.

klsallee wrote:

Sorry, I am not clear on what you mean. The exit process will crumble? The EU will crumble? Or other?

No, the EU will crumble to the rump of its closer union members.   But things are pretty dynamic.

Stock indexes have recovered relatively OK.   Currency another matter of course but in the short term will improve the UK's performance possibly (cheaper exports, more expensive imports).

I think what I am seeing now is a split even within the EU on reformers and closer union factions.

Perhaps Brexit is now the start of a wider reform process internally rather than specifically about the UK's exit.  Many Brexiters want reform rather than leave but were not given the choice. Now I've seen Juncker and Co's opinion, I now think they should be replaced with people who can at least see the possibility of reform.

Today's bet is that we end up with an even more two speed Europe (again) - those in an EFTA and those outside (the rump).

fluffy2560 wrote:

Many Brexiters want reform rather than leave but were not given the choice.

I can not agree more. A false choice, of stay trapped in the status quot, or leave with consequences, is no real choice.

klsallee wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Many Brexiters want reform rather than leave but were not given the choice.

I can not agree more. A false choice, of stay trapped in the status quot, or leave with consequences, is no real choice.

Not so.
Reform was a major point the Stay movement were pushing, but no one believed they were able to deliver.

Fred wrote:

klsallee wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Many Brexiters want reform rather than leave but were not given the choice.

I can not agree more. A false choice, of stay trapped in the status quot, or leave with consequences, is no real choice.

Not so.
Reform was a major point the Stay movement were pushing, but no one believed they were able to deliver.

Yes, Remain did not have a real agenda for change and when push comes to shove, a vote for Leave was necessary because there was no way to believe Remain's "promises" (which by definition, would be also all the other states to agreeing to change too). 

No chance.

Fred wrote:

Reform was a major point the Stay movement were pushing, but no one believed they were able to deliver.

Cameron did get concessions from the EU, and in yet more British exceptions in the EU than most other countries, which would have become legally binding if Britain remained in the EU. So it was not, IMHO, an issue of being able to deliver, so much as what was offered "was enough".

And quite frankly, again IMHO, Britain has received a lot of "special treatment" in the EU.

And as I already said, one is either part of a team or not. If one does not agree with the team, then leave. And leaving is 100% okay with me (in fact, it may be better for the team, to shake it up, if it looses a star player). But only if that star player does it with a plan and with real honor and rapidity to not otherwise affect the rest of the team. All behaviors which I find the "leave" campaigners do not have at the moment.

The current reports that Boris Johnson (there is a really non-English name by the way), is maybe not interested in the top job is really interesting.

Sorry, one minute please, I am again running out of popcorn.

We'll all need a truck load of popcorn as we follow this one through.
There are suggestions the leave would require an act of parliament to be legal, but there are special exemptions that could force it through without such an act.
A number of Scottish and more left wing Labour MPs are trying to block it and Gib wants out in the UK, but to remain in the EU - Unlikely to happen.
If it was down to a parliament vote, any 'nay' votes would have to explain why they ignored the stated democratic wish of the majority.
Cameron is showing why he should never have been PM by delaying the signing of 50 until the new PM, hopefully one with a backbone, is in number 10.
The delays are making a lot of people unhappy, mostly bankers and the markets, so delay is making things worse than they need to be.

Now, back to that popcorn.

Fred wrote:

Now, back to that popcorn.

Brilliant!

Should we organize a Brexit popcorn event? Where we can all meet, complain, moan, debate, lament and discuss it all? Emission cost: one bag of popcorn. I even have a punching bag, for those that get frustrated by it all. 

Seriously --- anyone game?

You'd better hold it in a boxing ring or a cage fighting arena because pro and anti feeling are running a little high.
I'm old now so my years of full contact martial arts are weathering on the edges, but I could still kick the poop out of Cameron and a couple of Labour MPs.
I'd knock Harriet Harman and John Major out with one punch, pair of wimps.

Interesting idea for a forum meet.

Party on, dudes.

klsallee wrote:

....

The current reports that Boris Johnson (there is a really non-English name by the way), is maybe not interested in the top job is really interesting.

.... I am again running out of popcorn.

Nah, you're all barking up the wrong tree.

If you listen to Teresa May's speech on putting herself up for the top job, there's no way  it could be anyone else. Now I've heard her speak, I reckon she's the “one”.  She was decisive, direct and had an air of  being in charge like Maggie Thatcher.

She'll bring Gove in and Boris somewhere and bring in Remainers and Leavers for a cross section. I reckon Gove will end up being Deputy PM, Boris will be something like Home Office (which is a poison chalice normally) or  Trade and Industry. 

She's basically a shoe in now that Boris has cut himself out the frame.  She's said Article 50 will not be invoked until everyone is good and ready.  Other than that, it's just business as usual.  Hence the stockmarket has recovered.     Now someone has stepped up, all the nonsense and discussions will stop.  Policies will be created.

But one thing you're all missing is the sideshow on the Labour party and the vote of no confidence going on there.  It's all be sidelined by the Conservatives.

I think it's sweet popcorn at Conservative HQ - looking more united and salty popcorn down at Labour HQ, a bit tart.

As for Scotland, nope, they won't get a chance to be  the inheritors of the EU membership. EU told them so. 

And the Gibraltarians do not want to leave the UK.  They are all British citizens down there. Why would they want to be Spanish?  They just want the border open and free trade even if it's out of the EU.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Nah, you're all barking up the wrong tree.

You may be right.

After all, my bark is often worse than my bite.... Ba dum tss.....   

Current informal polling results...
Who do you think should be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Andrea Leadsom - 35%
Michael Gove - 29%
Theresa May - 25%
Liam Fox - 8%
Stephen Crabb - 3%