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Will Brazil lose the 2014 World Cup? What would the consequences be?

Last activity 12 January 2014 by usmc_mv

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James

With every day that passes it certainly looks that this possibility becomes more likely. It could all hinge on the outcome of the Confederations Cup scheduled to begin in nine days. Fifa has already got a Plan B for shifting the 2014 World Cup to the United States. If there are any major disruptions during the Confederations Cup then it is almost certain that Fifa will pull the plug.

So let's imagine this actually happens, what would be the consequences for Brazil if the World Cup does move north.

Well, the first and most obvious is that the billions of Reais that have thusfar been spent on stadiums, other sports venues, lodgings, security measures and propaganda would be money right down the drain. This plays right into the hands of the very people who are now protesting against these events, the gross overspending they've generated and other abuses and excesses of the Brazilian government.

This could end up being the death knell for the current government of the Worker's Party and scuttle former president Lula's return to power. Should Fifa pull the World Cup the public outcry against the government obviously gains much more strength and could actually lead to major political reforms in this country. Certainly the Worker's Party would not form the next government and the shame that would hang over their heads regarding the wasted billions could even prevent their return to power for decades to come.

If Brazil loses the World Cup you can bet your bottom dollar that this will give the International Olympic Committee real cause to seriously re-examine Rio de Janeiro hosting the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. A tainted reputation resulting from the loss of the World Cup and Brazil's woefull state of preparedness for 2014 and 2016 would almost certainly also lead to the loss of the Olympic Games; billions more down the drain.

The loss of these two events, which by the way are extremely unpopular with the average Brazilian, would simply validate what the protesters are saying - the money being spent on these sporting events that will do little to improve the situation of the average Brazilian would have been much better spent investing in education, public health, basic sanitation, hospitals, public security, increasing the minimum wage and a host of other things that would bring real change.

Would losing these major events be a disaster for Brazil? Yes and no - in the political sense yes, it would change the whole political map in this country, which may or may not be a good thing for the country. It wouldn't be a big disaster for the Brazilian economy and could actually have the effect on curtailing the excessive and uncontrolled spending on frivalities such as sporting events. For the average Brazilian it would hardly be a disaster, in fact it would be a major victory which would demonstrate clearly the power Braziian citizens actually have once they learn to use it and that citizens should not need to fear their government, but rather a government should fear the citizens.

Cheers,
William James Woodward - Brazil Animator, Expat-blog Team

lacret60

I am very sad to see what's going on in Brazil amidts the Confederations Cup games, though I totally support and understand the protesters. Although the violent protests I see no logic in, as I feel they only diminish the authenticity and validity of the protesters' gripes and demand.

My partner herself always liked the present President as well as the one who preceded her, who supported the present one's election. However she still never denied the social injustices, beauracracy and poverty that do still exist in Brazil.

The reason I'm sad is because I do NOT wish Brazil to lose the World Cup OR the Olympics. I think it was a great coup for Brazil to win both, and would INSTEAD prefer to see these protests, YES, bring about changes in policy and laws and QUICKLY, as I was nauseated to find out about how much was spent on these events while the average Brazilian suffers in the shadows, but NOT at the same time having to lose the World Cup and Olympics to achieve that. I'm hoping, in other words, that it won't have to come to that for the government to REACT and in SUBSTANTIAL  and IMMEDIATE ways.

Yesterday or the day before the President (whose name escapes me right now) was televised at first making the ridiculous comment that those protests only sang of the wonderful democracy that exists in Brazil today. A more POLITICAL comment was imposible and it made me laugh sarcastically and make me angry at the same time. But more recently, I guess when she realized that just wouldn't cut it, she came out saying that she supported the peaceful protesters and promised the changes they were demanding, only that the violent protesters would not be tolerated and would be dealt with appropriately. I found that comment much better and was left hopeful that the end that I am hoping for may actually be possible as I HOPE (if NOT for caring for the Brazilian common man and woman and child) that the goverment will react fast and furiously with POSITIVE changes, as they are FACED with that harsh reality of perhaps losing those two MAJOR events. With the worldwide embarrassment they have ALREADY suffered, I would think that if they had an OUNCE of judgement they would know this crowd is NOT going to turn back or go away quietly and it's in THEIR best interests (if they don't care about the average Brazilian's best interests) that they LISTEN and DELIVER.

Let's see what keeps happening.

James

Hi lacret60,

I've been in Brazil for over eleven years now, since the administration of Fernando Henrique Cardoso. I witnessed the election of former president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva with great expectation that it was a signal of change in this country. Little changed however, not under his administration and not under the current administration of President Dilma Rousseff. This is because while the administration may change, those in a position to advise the presidents do not. Regardless of who is the head of state, if you've got a pack of idiots on whom you rely for counsel and advice you are going to continue getting the same bad advice and nothing ever changes or improves.

Since the Lula administration and Dilma's election the government has been rocked by a number of political scandals. Not because their administrations were any more corrupt (or any less) than previous ones. Much to the contrary, the scandals are coming to light simply because the Brazilian people have become much more conscious of them and thus much more vigilant. At least Dilma seems to actually be trying to do something about them while other presidents turned a blind eye and deaf ear to these problems. Unfortunately the rest of those in government are fighting tooth and nail to maintain the status quo, keep their grossly over-inflated salaries and all the additional perks that go with them. It's completely unacceptable that a São Paulo State Supreme Court judge makes in one month almost double the annual salary of a State Supreme Court judge in New York. There's no making sense of this kind of wallowing at the trough when it's the taxpayers footing the bill and getting absolutely ZERO in return. Worse still salaries are based on the highest political position one has filled, even if only temporarily. Brazil has former presidents Lula, FHC, Sarnay and Fernando Collor de Mello all continuing to pull down salaries of President of the Republic. There are also the Vice-Presidents and Interim Presidents who may have held the position of President for as little as one day who also will continue to receive the salary of President for the rest of their natural lives, even long after they retire from politics and dispite any other income they may have. This is a practice that I personally find repugnant, a slap in the face to all Brazilians; especially those forced to try and support themselves on a minimum wage of R$645 per month, which by the way still is in violation of the very Constitution since it is too low.

The one thing that I've maintained since I arrived in this country is that the youths will drag Brazil, kicking and screaming, into the First World eventually. Whether the politicians like it or not. I truly hope that these demonstrations signal that this has now begun. If nothing else they serve to show all Brazilians who have been programmed culturally to never complain that they actually do have a voice and that they have power in numbers. Young people here do not share the attitude of their parents and other ancestors that they are only one small voice in the wilderness, that it's always been this way and always will be this way, that it serves no purpose to complain so they'll accept the situation without a wimper. Not the youth of today... they are learning the typically First World concept that it really is the squeaky wheel that gets the grease.

While I see the past week of demonstrations as a positive sign for future change; I know that this kind of change does not come about quickly. It may not happen in my lifetime, but I hope that it will in the lifetime of my Brazilian born son who will be six years old next month, who knows? The point that truly saddened me about these demonstrations is that as always when something major happens, thieves, vandals and criminals (all opportunists) come out of the woodwork to take advantage of the situation, to rob and vandalize. They infiltrate organized groups of legitimate demonstrators and the extremely biased Brazilian media always sensationalizes their actions, making it appear that they represent the majority when in fact the vast majority demonstrate in a very peaceful manner, obey the laws and do not provoke confrontations. The minority are not demonstrators, but rather nothing more and nothing less than BANDIDOS.

Dilma's "non-speech" was a lot of words that said absolutely nothing. What can any president say when faced with the largest public outcry in over two decades. Everybody knows that the people are right, they are demanding changes that are long overdue. One can only hope that they will not weaken, that they will continue to stand together, speak with one voice and continue demanding change until somebody finally listens.

Cheers,
William James Woodward - Brazil Animator, Expat-blog Team

lacret60

Hi William

Believe me, I am in total agreement. I don't in any way want the protestors to back down or go away or, MUCH LESS, as Pele, in his mouth-dropping, imbecilic comment, suggested, "all stop protesting and concentrate on the futbol"!! Was he SERIOUS?? Maybe he got hit on the head with one-to-many soccer balls that we never knew about.

I, as an individual, have always stood up for myself and my rights, even in the face of daunting odds, and have always urged others to do so, and I LOVE when I see it happen, as it's happening now in Brazil, and as I also saw it happening in Venezuela during the many (though unsuccessful) attempts to oust Chavez, and, now, his buffoon wanna-be, Maduro. I cheered them every step of the way, as I am cheering on (and even morso as I plan to live there and because my partner ALREADY lives there) the protestors in Brazil today. And I understsnd your point (and agree) that Dilma's "speech" was a NON-speech. I was just referring to what even you yourself admitted that you've observed that at least I felt SHE was TRYING to make strides where NO ONE BEFORE HER had even WANTED TO. Now, is anything she'll WANT to TRY to do be ultimately IMPOSSIBLE due to ACHIEVE, being that, as you said, the "advisors" DO NOT CHANGE from administration to administration (a fact which I'll admit I did not know)? Perhaps. And you're probably right. But the very reason that I DO stand up for myself in the face of daunting odds is because I AM an idealist just, as I presume, are all those protestors in Brazil's streets. People who are called "dreamers" are the ones who see POSSIBILITY where others admit defeat. And perhaps I worded my viewpoint in a convoluted way, but all I was saying was that my HOPE, impossible as it may SEEM or even BE, is that the protestors get exavctly what they are demanding, but WITHOUT losing the World Cup or Olympics, and WITH Dilma's administration-- REGARDLESS of those "advisors"-- being the one to finally HEAR the "little people" louder than those "advisors". 

But, in the end, all I want is for Brazil to be a strong and vibrant country, BECAUSE of the Brazilian people and not IN SPITE of them. Trust me, being someone who is Cuban-born herself and whose family fled social injustice, I am the LAST person to have any patience for governmental abuses or abuses of any kind.

James

Couldn't have said it better myself. It's just too bad that the (dictatorship era) Lei de Estrangeiro 6815 prohibits us foreigners from participating in politics in this country. Guess they banned it for good reason, they didn't want any of us helping to open the eyes of the average Brazilian as to how things work in the real world and should also work here too... looks like that the average Brazilian is no finding out that little fact for themselves.

Cheers,
William James Woodward - Brazil Animator, Expat-blog Team

lacret60

Yes, it's obvious the self-serving reasons for which they passed that law preventing foreigner political participation. But, like you also said, it looks like the Brazilians have started to find certain truths out for themselves despite that law. Sooner or later, I tend to find that's usually the way, and the reason is simply that certain "rights" are BASIC, HUMAN rights and therefore discovery eventually comes from WITHIN. And the voice from WITHIN is louder than any voice from WITHOUT, and therefore cannot be silenced by any law or government. And because that's true, maybe it's best when people discover things for themselves, because it often makes the hunger for change more ravenous and therefore the determination more long-lasting and in the end successful. Let's hope that's the case for our dear Brazil.

usmc_mv

Not that you can take anything Dilma says seriously but here is a recent article:

http://nesn.com/2014/01/president-dilma … back-down/

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