P.R. A.M. - P.M.

Good article.  I believe the jungle will recover fairly fast.  My friend had a large mango tree (25'+) in his back yard.  I asked him how old was the tree?  He said only 3-4 years!  Plants grow fairly fast in the tropics.

Check El Nuevo Dia online for Oct 5, Migracion. No job, no home, no school. So, Conn, NY, FL gearing up to receive newcomers.

yes, many people in PR will have no choice.   No house, no water, no power, no job, no food  - gotta go somewhere to survive.   If they have friends or relatives in the states, they will move to areas with support.  People with means to exit, job skills for work in the states, people with education - they will leave the island.

After the exodus, what will remain?   The older folks, the people who can't afford to move, some will remain that have good jobs or businesses, and a few of us gringos.   I think we will see big changes in the island in the months ahead.

Sitka wrote:

yes, many people in PR will have no choice.   No house, no water, no power, no job, no food  - gotta go somewhere to survive.   If they have friends or relatives in the states, they will move to areas with support.  People with means to exit, job skills for work in the states, people with education - they will leave the island.

After the exodus, what will remain?   The older folks, the people who can't afford to move, some will remain that have good jobs or businesses, and a few of us gringos.   I think we will see big changes in the island in the months ahead.

Before I saw the second paragraph, I was going to ask "Then what next?"  I'm semi-retired, but I need broadband to run my business, power, water, some supplies, and a place to live. All banking, CC, even ordering otherwise retail items, I do online.  I go out for very few services (don't even start with PRT, which was mystifying years ago, took weeks, months to install).

But really? We're talking $90B to begin reconstruction on top of I don't know how much in deferred debt on top of no liquidity at the end of October, and I'm beginning to sense a certain stinginess coming on in the U.S. Congress. So, with these odds, the old folks (I being one of them), the impoverished AM and PM, a smattering of professionals, not including realtors (what must those inventories look like?) and retirees, I and many posters would like to know a) what are the "big changes" you see and b) what is your idea of social/cultural bonds that would even begin to glue this all together? Note: I'm not considering tourism, or even counting on it, here. You can bet that the unscathed islands in the rest of the Caribbean chain will be angling for cruise and jet traffic.

Good summary. good q's.

Fair to predict, since the governor said it-- millions to exit with out a bail out.

Is it coming?

Today's news from him is that they will be broke Nov 1. Says he has 10 billion in the bank. So 10 billion a month needed. So $120 billion for the first year just to run it.
$50 billion? for 1 year work rebuilding. So $200 billion in US aid for 2018?  May be high, maybe not by much.

The trees may grow P.M, but their economy hadn't A.M. So PR would be totally dependent on the US for a long, long time.

I see humanitarian aid coming, I don't see the Cavalry coming.

Sad for the elderly and poor and kids who don't have somebody waiting for them with open arms. Millions may want to exit, may need to exit, but cannot.

IMO without massive aide, some type of legislated incentives for corporate investment & development, repeal of the Jones act conditions on the island will continue to spiral downward.   I hope I'm wrong.

I've posted elsewhere on the forum that PR's comparative advantages are in tourism and agriculture.  Of those two sectors, both of which got wrecked by Maria, I would expect ag to make the most rapid return.

I know that many on this forum are fond of "farm to table" or "organic" farming, and all of that is fine, but you're not going to build an island economy on such inefficient means of farming.  Large, commercial farms are certainly possible on the island.  Year-round growing seasons, generally good rainfall, relatively rich soils, all make for ideal conditions for agriculture.  The wave of emigration and the declining cost of land may make commercial ag attractive.  I am already seeing land at $10-15,000/cuerda.  That's a good bit more than I would pay for raw land here in Virginia, but I only get a single crop, and the soil is lousy.  We may see corporate investment in large landholdings in the interior.  Such agriculture is not labor-intensive, nor is the labor it requires especially skilled.  So those unskilled Puerto Ricans who remain on the island may find work in large-scale agriculture.

The tourism industry may take more time to recover, and I think the long-term prospects are gloomier.  That's unfortunate, as the sector would pump more dollars into the economy than ag would, and Puerto Rico certainly has the natural beauty to support a significant tourism industry.  However, the tourism industry requires a workforce that has a strong work ethic and a focus on customer service; neither of these are found in abundance among Puerto Ricans  -- a joie de vivre most certainly, but not a hustle to please a customer or paying guest.  In addition, a fluency and ease with English is necessary, and too many on the island either cannot or will not speak the language.  95% of Puerto Rican tourists come from the mainland.  What language do you expect that they will speak?  Maria unfortunately will strip the island of those with the language and customer-service skills to make tourism work.  Those with these qualities will find more lucrative work on the mainland.

The federal government instituted programs of massive subsidies for manufacturing, principally tech, about 50 years ago.  Such subsidies distort the market, blunting incentives for business to become more efficient.  I have a friend who was a tech for Motorola in the mid-70s.  He bench tested the first hand mikes (remember the CB craze?) that were made in Puerto Rico.  Of the 12 dozen shipped, 144 of them failed to work.  But because of the subsidies it was cheaper to pay a tech in Illinois to fix them, so Motorola kept operating in Puerto Rico, producing mikes that didn't work.  Crazy.  As soon as the subsidies ended however, Poof!  All those jobs went away.

Lastly, I don't think the Jones Act has the impact that most people think it has.  Nevertheless, it does clearly increase the cost of the ships, a cost passed along to the consumer.  Just as I have no love for subsidies, I don't care for the protectionism of the Jones Act, and agree that it should be repealed.  I just don't expect that to have much impact on Puerto Rico's economy.  Of course, with the Jones Act gone, Puerto Rico might begin to focus on the real reasons for the economic malaise.

I agree, good analysis.

Here's something from Miami Herald, huge truck mounted portable solar panel/generator PR's in the estados are sending. Intended user are community centers.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather … 21161.html

Also noted towns in S FL are modifying building codes for new construction--must have solar panels. I think they want the ones that won't fly off of wooden trusses, right?

Elon Musk to develop solar power in PR.  Will it really happen?   https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/elon-mu … maria.html

deleted, covered by Sitka's post above

The dam is back in the news, CNN reports new concerns about the dam  possibly failing.

http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017 … -rico.html

Here's the new song written by PRican Lin-Manuel Miranda who wrote/produced popular stage hit Hamilton, probably going to more famous for saying a certain was going to go straight to hell, no pass go, no collect $200 or words to that effect.

Performed by various popular Latino artists. Not going to knock Despacito off the charts but that wasn't the intent, it's a fundraiser. Loved hearing the coqui's at the end, all of us love their call, though I hear not Hawaiians, killing them?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1IBXE2 … e=youtu.be

Can solar panel withstand hurricanes cat 5?
It is not just the winds it is also the flying projectiles and water penetration into the electronics like a mist or spray under force.

Maybe if they were foldable into the inside of a tank and unfold again after the storm they may do fine.

I think some types of fixed solar panels ( not an array that moves to follow the sun ) are mounted with hinged bolts on the bottom, the panel is set at the optimal angle to the sun.   In PR about 15degrees?   the panel is supported at that angle for daily use.  If you know an approaching storm threatens to hit, you lower the panel to the flat position and bolt it down until the storm passes.

I am thinking storm proof panels should be available since hurricane resistant glass windows and doors are available, but I have not researched it.

I re-listened to the song for PR, didn't catch it first time, but what they're singing is each artist is singin one of the names of each 78 municipalities.

dgdlaw wrote:

I re-listened to the song for PR, didn't catch it first time, but what they're singing is each artist is singin one of the names of each 78 municipalities.

Correct

It's catchy actually. Fantastic world class voices from about 20? different Latino stars. I only recognized J-Lo and Marc Anthony, a few others by sight but don't know their names.

The entre which I did catch the first time I heard it is a song from West Side Story which we all know is about  a Nuyorican street gang.

But I watched an interview this morning with the song writer Mr Miranda and he either said that West Side Story was controversial in PR or with PRicans, not sure which, when released in the 60's but I didn't catch his reasoning.

Rey?

Send me the link and I will listen to it.
Not sure without seeing the video you spoke about, here is a guess on my part, in the story the Puerto Ricans sing pro and against PR during the movie sometimes somewhat derogatory, and are shown as carrying knives and letting their emotion carry them. Maybe that is the issue. I never considered the movie derogatory, NY and PR life are different and also the time period says a lot.

BTW my two favorite movies ever are West Side Story and The Sound of Music.

Balloons to work as cellular towers got FCC experimental license for PR. 

Google parent company. Wish it was somebody other then Google for privacy concerns but the FCC can't grant them a patent. So if it works, competition. Wouldn't I love to see ATT and the rest get a kick in the butt after gouging me for the last 20+ years for crummy/no signal and worse more recently for data and regulated speed and $400 for a phone they pay $2 from DingDong WongTong  but most of all for the
no WongTong for you customer service? $25 a month less arriving soon at your ATT/Verizon/Sprint/US Cell/Claro ?

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing- … uerto-rico

My bro faxed me this article so no link, but in sum and substance the author from a trade mag had this to say about the solar hope:

"Musk's day-old plan for Puerto Rico is underdeveloped, to say the least, but the billionaire's past projects in energy infrastructure could point the way. Back in 2016, Musk installed a microgrid on the island of Ta'u in American Samoa. Up until November of that year, the island had run primarily on diesel shipped in from the mainland. So Musk stepped in to install more than 5,000 solar panels and 60 Tesla Powerpacks for storage, as the Verge reported at the time. It was primarily funded by American Samoa and federal agencies like the Department of the Interior.

Things appear to be smooth sailing in SolarCity Samoa. But there's reasons to be wary of how Musk's vision could be applied to Puerto Rico. First, there's the strictly practical matter that the territory of Puerto Rico is substantially larger than any other project Musk has worked on before. Ta'u has less than 1,000 residents, while Puerto Rico has 3.5 million. Rebuilding the Caribbean island would require Musk to scale his past efforts by a factor of, er, 6,000—and do it fast. Also, Ta'u's infrastructure clearly wasn't perfect (that's why it needed SolarCity in the first place), but at least it was functioning when Musk's team arrived. Puerto Rico, by contrast, is completely crippled by Hurricane Maria. Even after a few weeks of “recovery,” only 10 percent of the island has power. Yes, that absolute devastation could allow for a vibrant Tesla-powered rebirth, but it raises the stakes much, much higher."

I guess the point is Ok much bigger but even if you bring a zillion receptors you still have to hook them to a grid and there ain't no grid.

There ain't no grid, and the storage requirements are absolutely immense!  With only 60 PowerPacks for 1000 people in Samoa, there's no way that electricity is available at night for anything but the most critical needs (a Tesla residential system has one or even 2 PowerPacks per home).

An electrical grid is possible to operate only when it is large, even immense.  Here's an analogy to help see the problem:

The grid is like a 55-gallon drum filled with water.  At the bottom of the drum are dozens of pipes of different diameters, all leading off to distant valves which are turned on and off by someone standing there.  As a rule, more water flows during the day and less at night, but the drain is constantly changing.

You have to keep the water level within three inches of the top of the drum.  You have your own set of pipes to fill it.  Some pour a lot of water, but when you turn that valve, it takes a long time to get more or less through the pipe.  Others deliver less water, but are more quickly reactive to changes in the valve.  Even others flow water only when the sun is shining, or when the wind is blowing.

The bigger the "drum" the easier it is to keep it topped off, and to respond to changes in demand.  A variety of sources of electricity generation is also necessary to keep the grid supplied.  Solar can't do it all, without massive storage to supply demand when the solar cells aren't producing.  And those batteries are expensive, environmentally destructive, and with frequent use, of short lifespan.  I simply can't see how Musk can think that he can power an entire grid with solar.

Thanks Professor W for breaking this down.

Musk is trying to help on a smaller scale with smaller supplies and manpower.

But, maybe a tad of free international advertisement for his brand by dangling hope knowing that PR is a no can do present state of the tech? Every entrepreneur of what's coming has to have that in his toolbox,

Awhile back Musk got a lot of free out of his solar semi trailer concept truck which was due out but yesterday pushed its release date back, citing PRico as one reason.

https://hothardware.com/news/project-lo … te-service

A more thorough explanation of the balloon cellular thing,  "The Loon"

Econo food stores selling bottled water for $13.99 a case, before the storm it was $3.99!

The laws of supply and demand have not been repealed.   But, give me a break - price gouging for sure.

Also saw a post on Facebook claiming someone was selling grilled dog meat as beef from a roadside stand.   He recommended against eating from any type of food truck/stand.     

While I applaud Musk and his engineers, it would seem to me that it would require a lot of deforestation and fairly flat areas. That i do not believe to be good for PR. Land that can be used for farming going for solar power.

Property aid q&a's published for Missouri after an event. Same 'what's up' for PR probably

"Commonly asked questions about disaster aid from FEMA:

Q: Who should apply for federal disaster assistance?
A: Missouri homeowners and renters in disaster-designated counties who sustained damage to their homes, vehicles or personal property as a result of the severe storms and flooding from December 23, 2015 through January 9, 2016 can apply for FEMA grants.

Q: How do I apply?
A: Residents who were affected can apply for assistance online at www.DisasterAssistance.gov or call 800-621-3362 or (TTY) 800-462-7585, 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. seven days a week.  Those who use 711-Relay or Video Relay Services can call 800-621-3362. The application deadline is March 21.

Q: What kinds of FEMA grants are available?
A: Disaster assistance may include grants to help pay for temporary housing, emergency home repairs, uninsured and underinsured personal property losses and medical, dental and funeral expenses caused by the disaster, along with other serious disaster-related expenses.

Q: What happens after I register?
A: You will receive a phone call from a FEMA inspector to arrange for a survey of the damages. This will come just days after you register. All FEMA inspectors will have official identification. They do not approve or deny claims or requests; those come after the inspection results are submitted. FEMA inspectors do not ask for money and do not recommend contractors to make repairs.

Q.  I've already cleaned up and made repairs to my property.  Am I still eligible to register with FEMA?
A.  Yes. You may be eligible for reimbursement of your clean-up and repair expenses. Before and after photos of the damaged property can help expedite your application for assistance.

Q: Does my income need to be under a certain dollar amount to qualify for disaster aid?
A: FEMA's Housing Assistance program is available, regardless of income, to anyone who suffered damages or losses in disaster-declared counties. However, aid for other losses such as personal property, vehicle repair or replacement, and moving and storage expenses is income-dependent and officials make decisions on a case-by-case basis. To be considered for a grant for these types of losses, the applicant must complete an application for an SBA loan. 

Q.  I have flood insurance.  Should I still register with FEMA?
A.  Yes.  But please contact your insurance company first.

Q: Does the Small Business Administration (SBA) offer loans to homeowners and renters?
A: Yes. The SBA is the primary source of financial assistance following a disaster and provides low-interest disaster loans to homeowners and renters.

Q: Do I have to be turned down by my bank before I can apply for a disaster loan?
A: No. The SBA has its own criteria for determining each loan applicant's eligibility.

Q: If I rent an apartment, can I get help to replace my damaged personal property?
A: Yes. Renters may qualify for a FEMA grant. Renters may also qualify for SBA disaster loans.

Q: Will FEMA pay for all home repairs or contract work?
A: No. FEMA does not pay to return your home to its pre-disaster condition. FEMA provides grants to qualified homeowners to repair damage not covered by insurance, but these grants may not pay for all the damage. However, an SBA disaster loan may return a home to its pre-disaster condition.

Q: Do I have to repay money I receive for disaster relief?
A: No. You do not have to repay grant money, however SBA disaster loans must be repaid.

Q: Do I have to be a legal U.S. resident to receive Individual Assistance?
A: No. If you have a child living at home who is a U.S. citizen or a qualified alien, you may apply for Individual Assistance on that child's behalf and you may be eligible to receive Individual Assistance. FEMA may provide undocumented, eligible immigrants with short-term, non-cash emergency aid."

http://www.prinforma.com/archives/186

FBI hot on the trail. In light of the tit-a-tat going on, thought it interesting municipality of SJ was one target.

There's also a media player in SJ posting videos of various politicians across PR with their "stash/bounty" and he's naming names. Saw this in Primerahora but couldn't open the video link.

The people diverting emergency aid for personal gain are the scum of the earth!   The article says they could get 20 years in the big house.  I hope they are convicted and get to be the new girl on the cell block.

Our friends on the north shore still have no power, no water, no food.

That link also has a FB page, a lot of juicy stuff : "PR informa".

One thing I noted about your earlier post of luggage ransacking, the page also commented on it. Also showed how easy it is to pick the luggage locks and recommend the only safe to pack your stuff is to bubble wrap it. I know some airports have that service, especially International terminals (I wonder why?).

Re: the FBI thing, when I saw FIMA was distributing relief to the mayors for re-distribution, my jaundice surfaced.

I have seen luggage wrapped in shrink wrap in international airports. Which may deter some thieves, but I have had numerous checked bags come out from the baggage belt with a blue sticker saying it had been opened and "inspected" by the TSA.    If they want to "inspect" your wrapped suitcase, they will cut it open.

I have read too many news reports of TSA agents involved with smuggling and other crimes to trust those guys.

They popped mine once, left me a nice note inside to say it was them. Broke the lock on my favorite big Samsonite hard case , too expensive to fix, too expensive to buy another. Probably my fault in a way, I had a set of four Walkie-talkies w/ recharger and a bunch of wires inside for mi amgios in a rural area. That must have been what raised TSA suspicions.

SW PR info:

Those of you interested in Cabo Rojo area:

Was no current info available to me anyway until about 4-5 days ago. Nothing was on Youtube and FB. My friends in the area went dark on the 20th and still dark. But slowly coming now.

Talked to a lawyer yesterday from FL who got there on the 3rd for 4 days. Surprisingly, but maybe not because it was the furthest from Her eye, Cabo did not suffer the type of destruction the rest of the island did. Bumper to bumper traffic SJ to Aguadilla--a town he said was obliterated from what he could see, and then heavy traffic all the way down to Cabo.

Joyuda, yes, was decimated, but Cabo pueblo and other close areas, not many homes screwed. Of those more were from trees falling on them, but still some few highly ripped up. Galloway's, popular restaurant in Boqueron, really a small frame house out on pier, isn't there anymore for example. Combate area also pretty good. Didn't see any flooding anywhere SW other then Jayuda.

But they are enduring the same P.M. hardships re: power, water, food etc. Gas available, markets open but not much. Cash only for everything. Verizon and Claro working in and out in certain spots, nothing AT&T. US Mail sporadic, or rather some places good others not, but thefts being reported big time. People advising family/friends to ship via FedEx.

Still very little info on Parguera (luminous bay) popular tourist town between Ponce and Cabo. Ponce did get hit hard, he said.

FB page "Lajas Informa" covers Lajas area very well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVJd_iX_ERw

A different group of singers yesterday released this 7 minute music video of  Puerto Rico A.M-P.M.  "Isla Bendita"

I think the governor's wife Beatrice Rossello, PR's First Lady, was involved because her name/logo appear at the end. 

Very well done, worth watching for sure. Nostalgic at times, will evoke PR pride no doubt.

Re my post above "Still very little info on Parguera (luminous bay) popular tourist town between Ponce and Cabo. Ponce did get hit hard, he said" :

Remarkably LaParguera was extremely fortunate. same problems as all with lack of utilities/necessities, but structure and infrastructure very lucky. Centro bars y eateries y etc are open for biz, saw fotos this morning, very clean and orderly, boats and docks also pretty good.

Interesting that Joyuda 10 M to the N got clobbered as did Ponce 10 M east. I guess being in the corner was just far enough to spare it. I'd say LaParguera which is in Lajas Muni is 30-35 miles from the Isabella y NW tip of PR, or from first base to second base if SJ was home plate. They'll be calling it  "LaSuerte" soon.

FEMA. -  Has anyone applied for assistance from FEMA?   I have attempted to apply using the web site, but it is "temporairly unavailable".   ???  help line not working either???

Sitka wrote:

FEMA. -  Has anyone applied for assistance from FEMA?   I have attempted to apply using the web site, but it is "temporairly unavailable".   ???  help line not working either???

I had read a post where they were doing something like workshops where people could go in person and apply for aid. I'll try and find it

http://www.disasterassistance.gov/es

1-800-621-FEMA 7am to 11 pm local time 7 days a week per website. You might have better luck calling. I've entered my address several different ways and it says it's not a disaster area.

Finally was able to register on line.  The web site is very slow and has difficulty with PR addresses.  For example, it instructs you to enter a full address without any abbreviations, but the system then cannot process it.  However it did accept a shorter version of the address???