Plebiscite

As long as people do not get into political discussion.

Here is the latest, the new law for the plebiscite is heading to the governor to sign. Several changes were made to meet requirements imposed by the US Justice department mostly in the following areas:
1) The current territorial status was added at the request of the justice department but the words Estado Libre Associado or (ELA) were not inserted.
2) All comments and notations reference US citizenship were removed at the request of the justice department because statehood was not the only way of ensuring citizenship according to the justice department and was making the option unbalanced.
3) Sovereignty was removed, the justice department said that it was another flavor of Independence and should be eliminated because independence is already an accepted option for the plebiscite.
4) others

Statehood we all know, current status (territory/colonial we all know, stay as we are) and independence we all know. To me the end result is a plebiscite that will be easier for the people to understand. Flavors of the current status like a better ELA or
Sovereignty were prohibited from being part of the plebiscite.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/noticias/poli … o-2312342/

Please do not get into arguments on the board, if you agree or disagree with something use private messaging. Political discussions are not allowed on the board.

The section http://prdecide.elnuevodia.com of the paper is about voting and choices, in that section of the newspaper parties get to do their spill. I do not have one in English handy.

Remember that things get lost in translation so an English version vs a Spanish version may say different things, take Puerto Rico Constitution as an example, the two versions have expressed different meanings which is one of the issues we are facing today about level of Sovereignty of the PR goverment.

Thanks for the question @frogrock and the info @reyp.
I'm not concerned, just curious ...how results would effect us as homeowners here...and how much of an exodus/influx there would be. When would the results take effect?
Sorry if these questions are dumb and/or obvious

Under statehood no change as to property rights, under colonial (current state) no change either. As independent country there is a sly chance of lost of property depending on the form of goverment that develops, but most independent countries respect property ownership by foreigners as long as it does not interfere with national security.

As to timeline ...... this is what is bothering me. If we hold the plebiscite in 2017 as expected, it is going to be around 10-15 or maybe more years before congress acts on it, specially if the vote is for statehood. A lot of the people that voted for it will be dead by that time. So 10-15 or more years would have passed and the will of the people could have changed by then, yet the people may be forced to whatever status won in the 2017 plebiscite, which would not be fair to those still living at that time

Congress:
Congress is in no rush to gain a state that would be poorer than Mississippi and that has a 70 billion debt, a state likely to be democrat and a state that will require more federal public funds. So statehood not likely for 10-15 years or more.

Current colonial option on the plebiscite is an easy pick for the interest of the US (no changes, no wait, no delays), but there are complications with the UN, even if the PR people pick it. In that event PR would remain a colony.

Independence is very likely NOT to pass in the Plebiscite, but it is a fairly easy choice for the US to accept. The only potential complication to this decision would be that China, Russia, or even Iran may put a foothold in the island and then we are back to having nuclear misiles in the Caribbean and at the footsteaps of the US. Besides that issue, the government and people of Puerto Rico will be asking for financial compensation for by then 119-139 years of colonial rule and exploitation of the island and resources, this would end up in the UN and would not look good if the US uses it veto power.

For US interest and financial stability in the US, Puerto Rico staying a colony would be less risky and cheaper. Nothing has to change.

There is another advantage of remaining a colony, people will have time to be more educated in politics, both decisions statehood and Independence are permanent decisions and people need to understand it fully which the politicians do not want, this is assuming either option is accepted by congress, congress is not obligated to act and can ignore any and all calls for status change. Puerto Rican's tend to change their mind, either option will be permanent and no amount of changing minds is going to make a difference so they better be sure.

I would prefer that the plebiscite were delayed another 5 years instead of rushing to make a decision now that may cyst PR dearly down the road, but I do not have a vote since I am not currently living in the island so my opinion does not count.

There is in my opinion no need to rush, but the PNP is tying the fact that all has gone to hell in PR with the fact that Puerto Rico is not a state. Just another way of pushing people to statehood and another unbalanced piece of propaganda, that is why they want to have the plebiscite in June and allowing very little wiggle room to the other oposición parties, they don't want to give people time to think or get a balanced point of view.

If Puerto Ricans want statehood, it will likely happen - eventually - when it's out of debt, back to work and more English-speaking.

The US doesn't give up assets without a fight. Puerto Rico is an asset, just not a particularly attractive one for the US to maintain right now.

Waste of time and money.

Thanks for the insight as usual @ReyP😊

No way Republicans will agree to it.  Why add two Democratic Senators?  Note:  Not saying that is "good" or "bad".  It is just political reality.  If the tables were turned and PR were likely to add two Republican Senators, I think the Democrats would block it.

I just registered to vote. The Board of Elections had a booth set up at the food court near Walmart.  You need your birth certificate or  passport and your Puerto Rico address. You are given a voter ID card with a photograph. COOL!
I also want to mention that I did not intend to start a heated political debate. Way back when, I belonged to a group called League of Women Voters. We tried to gather facts with the intent of allowing the voter to make up their mind.   I am a voter with an independent mind and have no political affiliations.

I am also of independent mind and have no party affiliations, but out of curiosity, Frog, I'd like your take. I do have a PR address and a passport, so does that mean I can get registered to vote there?

Are you a resident? If not, then even if you are able to get registered to vote, you may be committing a crime.

NomadLawyer wrote:

Waste of time and money.

I will completely agree. Politicians are using this as a diversion tactic. Let's get the people rally up under ANOTHER plebiscite away from the real issues. Instead of spending the money and efforts in the real issues.

Personally, I will rather see the island become a state than independent. History has shown what happens to most "independent " latin countries. Too much corruption in the island, at least the federal government is bringing some to light.

But this is just my opinion.

To be able to register to vote, you need to be resident, have an ID, birthday certificate and PR address. I will encourage all of the expat living in the island to register and vote. Make your opinion count. Be part of the solution, this will affect you as well.

I don't know. I have a PR Drivers License and live here full time,

I'm not a permanent resident yet. Thanks. I don't have a PR driver's license and not sure I'll ever get one, even after the move.

The locals (Puerto Rican born and raised) I have consulted on this have favored statehood for many reasons that (IMHO) simply make sense.

frogrock wrote:

I just registered to vote. The Board of Elections had a booth set up at the food court near Walmart.  You need your birth certificate or  passport and your Puerto Rico address. You are given a voter ID card with a photograph. COOL!
I also want to mention that I did not intend to start a heated political debate. Way back when, I belonged to a group called League of Women Voters. We tried to gather facts with the intent of allowing the voter to make up their mind.   I am a voter with an independent mind and have no political affiliations.

Understand, but hope others stay away from a discussion.

frogrock wrote:

I don't know. I have a PR Drivers License and live here full time,

Recidency for voting is based on your intention to live here or not. If you vote in PR and vote in the states you are in deep trouble. They check.
You are fine frogrock.
There is no length of time requirement, just your declaration of you being permanent.

To add PR as a state if that was ever accepted (grin), requires a change to the US constitution, so both parties have to agree or the change will fail
So like they say in the U.K...... Not bloody likely, mate.

Here is the letter the justice department sent the governor about the changes required to the original plebiscite
http://www.noticel.com/uploads/gallery/ … 4ed49e.pdf

two important items in that letter that you may have missed are that the Department of justice thinks that the previous plebiscite conducted in 2012 does not clearly show that the people rejected the current colonial status and the second was that it was 5 years old and did not necessarily reflected the current will of the people given the changes that have occurred in Puerto Rico politically and in the economy.

Item 2 specially makes me feel better than a second plebiscite may be required 5 or more years from now when congress is likely to start considering any response to the one being help June 11 2017 (assuming it is not delayed).

My fear was that people may be held 10-15 years from now to the results of the 2017 plebiscite as by then people would likely feel differently once the dust gets settle over the debt and the funding of medicare. There is still hope I will be able to vote in the one plebiscite that is really likely to count.

From what I've been able to gather, the majority of Puerto Ricans have been on the side of statehood for many years, maybe even decades.  Hard to imagine that would change on a dime.

Regardless of the outcome of this plebiscite, the politicians will find an excuse to have another plebiscite in a few years. It had become useless, they're been doing this for years. The excuse used now is the "colonial " propaganda. We'll see next time what excuses they will come with. The decision, irregardless of the outcome of this plebiscite is in charge of the congress. I don't see a decision coming out of then anytime soon.

That was my primary point, why hold one now if congress will not act now?
I see little point of running one now, IMHO it should wait for 5 or 8 years when the economic situation is being resolved and there is a chance of a congressional decision.

It is like asking a woman to marry you while she is ignoring you or thinks less of you. I am not sure this is the time, we need to try to woo her first. how many women that do not love you will want to marry you when you are in financial ruins and have a 46 waist?

Want to have a bit of fun with this?  Look into your crystal ball right now. What do you think the results of the vote will be?  Right now, I will say that 50 per cent will vote for statehood, 35 per cent for the status quo and 15  per cent for independence.

At this time the crystal ball is very cloudy. Both the Independence parties and the PPD are calling for a boycott of the plebiscite. Things may change.

If they the plebiscite is run with those groups abstaining from voting, the tally will be close to 100% for statehood since 95% of the two other parties will not vote. Assuming the congress and Justice department accept the vote as valid, then it is all done and it is up to congress to decide if they want to dance with the big bellied guy.

If the plebiscite is declared null and void because the other parties did not participate, then a new one will be needed.

If it is moved to around October and the other parties do engage, then the independence party (PIP) and the PPD would join forces and vote against statehood, I would expect a 46% statehood, 51% colonial, and the rest 3% independence.

OK. You're on! I will owe you a drink or you will owe me a drink, or we will just buy each other drinks.

frogrock wrote:

OK. You're on! I will owe you a drink or you will owe me a drink, or we will just buy each other drinks.

Sounds like a great bet.

About the boycott http://www.elnuevodia.com/english/engli … t-2312855/

I will say, either way the people is the one that will loose. The politicians are using this as a diversion of the major issues the island is facing. And as I mentioned before, because of the political fanatics they are all jumping in the band wagon. In the meantime, the real issues will be put in the back burner and the people will continue paying the price.
In part, we deserve this for been blind and unable to make good decisions. Until we the people start holding the politicians accountable and voting with the head instead of their hearts this will continue to happen. We may not see this change in our live time unfortunately.

SteuernAnwalt wrote:

No way Republicans will agree to it.  Why add two Democratic Senators?  Note:  Not saying that is "good" or "bad".  It is just political reality.  If the tables were turned and PR were likely to add two Republican Senators, I think the Democrats would block it.

It looks like many "mainlanders" are assuming that PR would be a blue state, based upon how most "hispanics" in the USA vote.

Food for thought here: http://www.pr51st.com/misconceptions-pu … lue-state/

Good point, Gary.

By now you all probably have heard that the only party intending to go vote and monitor the vote is the PNP which wants Puerto Rico to become a state. All other political parties are telling the people not to go vote and will not participate in the monitoring and counting of votes.

As previously stated, the US requested some changes to the ticket to be voted on and did not accept the the ticket as is. This does not prevent the Plebiscite vote to move forward as it but the governor and PR legislation had a new session to implement the changes requested. It was then signed into law in the hope that the justice department accept the new ticket and the descriptions so that they can release the 2.5 million needed and so that the justice department can bless the plebiscite as just and forward the results to congress.

Well all of that is in the air, while the new changes were implemented and were submitted to the justice department, it was expected that the justice department gave the OK on Saturday at the latest. This has not occurred, the deadline was set by the governor, not the justice department so they are probably in no rush.

The expected cost of the plebiscite is around 7.5 million but it was estimated at 5.5 millions previously so not sure what made it more expensive than previously anticipated. If the Justice department does not release the 2.5 million funds and approves the ticket, the PR government will have to come up with the 7.5 millions on their own.

Originally the governor wanted to hold the plebiscite regardless of the actions by the justice department, now it is unclear is he is willing to foot the entire bill, specially if the others parties do not participate, which regardless of results may cause the justice department and congress not to accept the results. In which case, Puerto Rico wasted 7.5 million dollars and everybody's time.

Nothing is easy in PR.
http://www.elnuevodia.com/english/engli … n-2313906/

I have a lot to say about this subject but that can't be said here (no politics allowed).
Friday afternoon in a chinchorro with a couple of cold ones would be the time and place.

Gary wrote:

I have a lot to say about this subject but that can't be said here (no politics allowed).
Friday afternoon in a chinchorro with a couple of cold ones would be the time and place.

Count me in, we will have some frituras and beer and talk..