With every day that passes it certainly looks that this possibility becomes more likely. It could all hinge on the outcome of the Confederations Cup scheduled to begin in nine days. Fifa has already got a Plan B for shifting the 2014 World Cup to the United States. If there are any major disruptions during the Confederations Cup then it is almost certain that Fifa will pull the plug.
So let's imagine this actually happens, what would be the consequences for Brazil if the World Cup does move north.
Well, the first and most obvious is that the billions of Reais that have thusfar been spent on stadiums, other sports venues, lodgings, security measures and propaganda would be money right down the drain. This plays right into the hands of the very people who are now protesting against these events, the gross overspending they've generated and other abuses and excesses of the Brazilian government.
This could end up being the death knell for the current government of the Worker's Party and scuttle former president Lula's return to power. Should Fifa pull the World Cup the public outcry against the government obviously gains much more strength and could actually lead to major political reforms in this country. Certainly the Worker's Party would not form the next government and the shame that would hang over their heads regarding the wasted billions could even prevent their return to power for decades to come.
If Brazil loses the World Cup you can bet your bottom dollar that this will give the International Olympic Committee real cause to seriously re-examine Rio de Janeiro hosting the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. A tainted reputation resulting from the loss of the World Cup and Brazil's woefull state of preparedness for 2014 and 2016 would almost certainly also lead to the loss of the Olympic Games; billions more down the drain.
The loss of these two events, which by the way are extremely unpopular with the average Brazilian, would simply validate what the protesters are saying - the money being spent on these sporting events that will do little to improve the situation of the average Brazilian would have been much better spent investing in education, public health, basic sanitation, hospitals, public security, increasing the minimum wage and a host of other things that would bring real change.
Would losing these major events be a disaster for Brazil? Yes and no - in the political sense yes, it would change the whole political map in this country, which may or may not be a good thing for the country. It wouldn't be a big disaster for the Brazilian economy and could actually have the effect on curtailing the excessive and uncontrolled spending on frivalities such as sporting events. For the average Brazilian it would hardly be a disaster, in fact it would be a major victory which would demonstrate clearly the power Braziian citizens actually have once they learn to use it and that citizens should not need to fear their government, but rather a government should fear the citizens.
Cheers,
William James Woodward - Brazil Animator, Expat-blog Team